Articles | Volume 23, issue 11
Research article
09 Nov 2023
Research article |  | 09 Nov 2023

Prediction of natural dry-snow avalanche activity using physics-based snowpack simulations

Stephanie Mayer, Frank Techel, Jürg Schweizer, and Alec van Herwijnen

Data sets

Data-set for prediction of natural dry-snow avalanche activity and avalanche size using physics-based snowpack simulations S. Mayer and F. Techel

Short summary
We present statistical models to estimate the probability for natural dry-snow avalanche release and avalanche size based on the simulated layering of the snowpack. The benefit of these models is demonstrated in comparison with benchmark models based on the amount of new snow. From the validation with data sets of quality-controlled avalanche observations and danger levels, we conclude that these models may be valuable tools to support forecasting natural dry-snow avalanche activity.
Final-revised paper