Articles | Volume 23, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-159-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-159-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
How uncertain are precipitation and peak flow estimates for the July 2021 flooding event?
Mohamed Saadi
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Bio- and Geosciences (IBG-3, Agrosphere), Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich 52425, Germany
Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems, Geoverbund ABC/J, Jülich 52428, Germany
Institut de Mécanique des Fluides de Toulouse (INPT-CNRS-UPS), Toulouse 31400, France
Carina Furusho-Percot
Institute for Bio- and Geosciences (IBG-3, Agrosphere), Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich 52425, Germany
Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems, Geoverbund ABC/J, Jülich 52428, Germany
INRAE Centre de Recherche PACA, US 1116 AGROCLIM, Avignon 84914, France
Alexandre Belleflamme
Institute for Bio- and Geosciences (IBG-3, Agrosphere), Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich 52425, Germany
Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems, Geoverbund ABC/J, Jülich 52428, Germany
Ju-Yu Chen
Institute for Geosciences, Department of Meteorology, Universität Bonn, Bonn 53121, Germany
Silke Trömel
Institute for Geosciences, Department of Meteorology, Universität Bonn, Bonn 53121, Germany
Laboratory for Clouds and Precipitation Exploration, Geoverbund ABC/J, Bonn 53121, Germany
Stefan Kollet
Institute for Bio- and Geosciences (IBG-3, Agrosphere), Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich 52425, Germany
Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems, Geoverbund ABC/J, Jülich 52428, Germany
Viewed
Total article views: 2,808 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 11 Apr 2022)
HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1,920 | 804 | 84 | 2,808 | 103 | 98 |
- HTML: 1,920
- PDF: 804
- XML: 84
- Total: 2,808
- BibTeX: 103
- EndNote: 98
Total article views: 1,830 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 17 Jan 2023)
HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1,323 | 443 | 64 | 1,830 | 88 | 86 |
- HTML: 1,323
- PDF: 443
- XML: 64
- Total: 1,830
- BibTeX: 88
- EndNote: 86
Total article views: 978 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 11 Apr 2022)
HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
597 | 361 | 20 | 978 | 15 | 12 |
- HTML: 597
- PDF: 361
- XML: 20
- Total: 978
- BibTeX: 15
- EndNote: 12
Viewed (geographical distribution)
Total article views: 2,808 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 2,704 with geography defined
and 104 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 1,830 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 1,769 with geography defined
and 61 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 978 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 935 with geography defined
and 43 with unknown origin.
Country | # | Views | % |
---|
Country | # | Views | % |
---|
Country | # | Views | % |
---|
Total: | 0 |
HTML: | 0 |
PDF: | 0 |
XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
Total: | 0 |
HTML: | 0 |
PDF: | 0 |
XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
Total: | 0 |
HTML: | 0 |
PDF: | 0 |
XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
Cited
10 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Hydrological forecasting at impact scale: the integrated ParFlow hydrological model at 0.6 km for climate resilient water resource management over Germany A. Belleflamme et al. 10.3389/frwa.2023.1183642
- A downward-counterfactual analysis of flash floods in Germany P. Voit & M. Heistermann 10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024
- Improving Real-Time Flood Forecasting: Probabilistic Validation of Assimilated Remotely-Sensed Soil Moisture Data S. Soltani et al. 10.1007/s41748-025-00726-8
- Fast urban inundation simulation with RIM2D for flood risk assessment and forecasting H. Apel et al. 10.3389/frwa.2024.1310182
- Geomorphic changes after the 2021 Central European flood in the Ahr Valley by LiDAR-based differences V. Steinritz et al. 10.1186/s12302-024-00893-x
- Impact of deep learning-driven precipitation corrected data using near real-time satellite-based observations and model forecast in an integrated hydrological model K. Patakchi Yousefi et al. 10.3389/frwa.2024.1439906
- The July 2021 flood event in the Eifel-Ardennes mountains as simulated by the high-resolution integrated hydrologic model ParFlow K. Goergen et al. 10.3389/frwa.2025.1571704
- Performance of the flood warning system in Germany in July 2021 – insights from affected residents A. Thieken et al. 10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023
- Runoff response to the uncertainty from key water-budget variables in a seasonally snow-covered mountain basin G. Cui et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101601
- A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 1: Event description and analysis S. Mohr et al. 10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023
9 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Hydrological forecasting at impact scale: the integrated ParFlow hydrological model at 0.6 km for climate resilient water resource management over Germany A. Belleflamme et al. 10.3389/frwa.2023.1183642
- A downward-counterfactual analysis of flash floods in Germany P. Voit & M. Heistermann 10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024
- Improving Real-Time Flood Forecasting: Probabilistic Validation of Assimilated Remotely-Sensed Soil Moisture Data S. Soltani et al. 10.1007/s41748-025-00726-8
- Fast urban inundation simulation with RIM2D for flood risk assessment and forecasting H. Apel et al. 10.3389/frwa.2024.1310182
- Geomorphic changes after the 2021 Central European flood in the Ahr Valley by LiDAR-based differences V. Steinritz et al. 10.1186/s12302-024-00893-x
- Impact of deep learning-driven precipitation corrected data using near real-time satellite-based observations and model forecast in an integrated hydrological model K. Patakchi Yousefi et al. 10.3389/frwa.2024.1439906
- The July 2021 flood event in the Eifel-Ardennes mountains as simulated by the high-resolution integrated hydrologic model ParFlow K. Goergen et al. 10.3389/frwa.2025.1571704
- Performance of the flood warning system in Germany in July 2021 – insights from affected residents A. Thieken et al. 10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023
- Runoff response to the uncertainty from key water-budget variables in a seasonally snow-covered mountain basin G. Cui et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101601
Latest update: 19 Aug 2025
Short summary
On 14 July 2021, heavy rainfall fell over central Europe, causing considerable damage and human fatalities. We analyzed how accurate our estimates of rainfall and peak flow were for these flooding events in western Germany. We found that the rainfall estimates from radar measurements were improved by including polarimetric variables and their vertical gradients. Peak flow estimates were highly uncertain due to uncertainties in hydrological model parameters and rainfall measurements.
On 14 July 2021, heavy rainfall fell over central Europe, causing considerable damage and human...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint