Articles | Volume 23, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-159-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-159-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Jan 2023
Research article |
| 17 Jan 2023
| 17 Jan 2023
How uncertain are precipitation and peak flow estimates for the July 2021 flooding event?
Mohamed Saadi
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Bio- and Geosciences (IBG-3, Agrosphere), Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich 52425, Germany
Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems, Geoverbund ABC/J, Jülich 52428, Germany
Institut de Mécanique des Fluides de Toulouse (INPT-CNRS-UPS), Toulouse 31400, France
Carina Furusho-Percot
Institute for Bio- and Geosciences (IBG-3, Agrosphere), Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich 52425, Germany
Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems, Geoverbund ABC/J, Jülich 52428, Germany
INRAE Centre de Recherche PACA, US 1116 AGROCLIM, Avignon 84914, France
Alexandre Belleflamme
Institute for Bio- and Geosciences (IBG-3, Agrosphere), Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich 52425, Germany
Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems, Geoverbund ABC/J, Jülich 52428, Germany
Ju-Yu Chen
Institute for Geosciences, Department of Meteorology, Universität Bonn, Bonn 53121, Germany
Silke Trömel
Institute for Geosciences, Department of Meteorology, Universität Bonn, Bonn 53121, Germany
Laboratory for Clouds and Precipitation Exploration, Geoverbund ABC/J, Bonn 53121, Germany
Stefan Kollet
Institute for Bio- and Geosciences (IBG-3, Agrosphere), Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich 52425, Germany
Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems, Geoverbund ABC/J, Jülich 52428, Germany
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Liubov Poshyvailo-Strube, Niklas Wagner, Klaus Goergen, Carina Furusho-Percot, Carl Hartick, and Stefan Kollet
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 167–189, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-167-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-167-2024, 2024
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Groundwater (GW) representation is simplified in most regional climate models. Here, we introduce a unique Terrestrial Systems Modeling Platform (TSMP) dataset with an explicit representation of GW, in the context of dynamical downscaling of GCMs for climate change studies. We compare the heat events statistics of TSMP and the CORDEX ensemble. Our results show that TSMP systematically simulates fewer heat waves, and they are shorter and less intense.
Bamidele Joseph Oloruntoba, Stefan Kollet, Carsten Montzka, Harry Vereecken, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3132, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3132, 2024
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This study uses simulations to understand how the soil information across Africa affects the water balance, using 4 soil databases and 3 different rainfall datasets. Results show that the soil information impacts water balance estimates, especially with a higher rate of rainfall.
Lucas Reimann, Clemens Simmer, and Silke Trömel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14219–14237, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14219-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14219-2023, 2023
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Polarimetric radar observations were assimilated for the first time in a convective-scale numerical weather prediction system in Germany and their impact on short-term precipitation forecasts was evaluated. The assimilation was performed using microphysical retrievals of liquid and ice water content and yielded slightly improved deterministic 9 h precipitation forecasts for three intense summer precipitation cases with respect to the assimilation of radar reflectivity alone.
Bjorn Stevens, Stefan Adami, Tariq Ali, Hartwig Anzt, Zafer Aslan, Sabine Attinger, Jaana Bäck, Johanna Baehr, Peter Bauer, Natacha Bernier, Bob Bishop, Hendryk Bockelmann, Sandrine Bony, Veronique Bouchet, Guy Brasseur, David N. Bresch, Sean Breyer, Gilbert Brunet, Pier Luigi Buttigieg, Junji Cao, Christelle Castet, Yafang Cheng, Ayantika Dey Choudhury, Deborah Coen, Susanne Crewell, Atish Dabholkar, Qing Dai, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Dale Durran, Ayoub El Gaidi, Charlie Ewen, Eleftheria Exarchou, Veronika Eyring, Florencia Falkinhoff, David Farrell, Piers M. Forster, Ariane Frassoni, Claudia Frauen, Oliver Fuhrer, Shahzad Gani, Edwin Gerber, Debra Goldfarb, Jens Grieger, Nicolas Gruber, Wilco Hazeleger, Rolf Herken, Chris Hewitt, Torsten Hoefler, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Daniela Jacob, Alexandra Jahn, Christian Jakob, Thomas Jung, Christopher Kadow, In-Sik Kang, Sarah Kang, Karthik Kashinath, Katharina Kleinen-von Königslöw, Daniel Klocke, Uta Kloenne, Milan Klöwer, Chihiro Kodama, Stefan Kollet, Tobias Kölling, Jenni Kontkanen, Steve Kopp, Michal Koran, Markku Kulmala, Hanna Lappalainen, Fakhria Latifi, Bryan Lawrence, June Yi Lee, Quentin Lejeun, Christian Lessig, Chao Li, Thomas Lippert, Jürg Luterbacher, Pekka Manninen, Jochem Marotzke, Satoshi Matsouoka, Charlotte Merchant, Peter Messmer, Gero Michel, Kristel Michielsen, Tomoki Miyakawa, Jens Müller, Ramsha Munir, Sandeep Narayanasetti, Ousmane Ndiaye, Carlos Nobre, Achim Oberg, Riko Oki, Tuba Özkan-Haller, Tim Palmer, Stan Posey, Andreas Prein, Odessa Primus, Mike Pritchard, Julie Pullen, Dian Putrasahan, Johannes Quaas, Krishnan Raghavan, Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, Markus Rapp, Florian Rauser, Markus Reichstein, Aromar Revi, Sonakshi Saluja, Masaki Satoh, Vera Schemann, Sebastian Schemm, Christina Schnadt Poberaj, Thomas Schulthess, Cath Senior, Jagadish Shukla, Manmeet Singh, Julia Slingo, Adam Sobel, Silvina Solman, Jenna Spitzer, Detlef Stammer, Philip Stier, Thomas Stocker, Sarah Strock, Hang Su, Petteri Taalas, John Taylor, Susann Tegtmeier, Georg Teutsch, Adrian Tompkins, Uwe Ulbrich, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Chien-Ming Wu, Hao Xu, Najibullah Zaki, Laure Zanna, Tianjun Zhou, and Florian Ziemen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-376, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-376, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines are proposed as international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1460, 2023
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Europe is regularly affected by compound events and natural hazards that occur simultaneously or with a temporal lag and are connected with disproportional impacts. Within the interdisciplinary project climXtreme (https://climxtreme.net/) we investigate the interplay of these events, their characteristics and changes, intensity, frequency and uncertainties in the past, present and future, as well as the associated impacts on different socio-economic sectors in Germany and Central Europe.
Zbigniew P. Piotrowski, Jaro Hokkanen, Daniel Caviedes-Voullieme, Olaf Stein, and Stefan Kollet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1079, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1079, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
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The computer programs capable of simulation of Earth system components evolve, adapting new fundamental science concepts and more observational data on more and more powerful computer hardware. Adaptation of a large scientific program to a new type of hardware is costly. In this work we propose cheap and simple but effective strategy that enable computation using graphic processing units, based on automated program code modification. This results in better resolution and/or longer predictions.
Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Joni-Pekka Pietikaeinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1463, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1463, 2023
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With a team of 20 authors from different countries, we tried to compile the impacts of drought and heat on European forests in the period 2018–2022. This is a research approach that transcends subject and country borders.
Tobias Tesch, Stefan Kollet, and Jochen Garcke
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2149–2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2149-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2149-2023, 2023
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A recent statistical approach for studying relations in the Earth system is to train deep learning (DL) models to predict Earth system variables given one or several others and use interpretable DL to analyze the relations learned by the models. Here, we propose to combine the approach with a theorem from causality research to ensure that the deep learning model learns causal rather than spurious relations. As an example, we apply the method to study soil-moisture–precipitation coupling.
Armin Blanke, Andrew J. Heymsfield, Manuel Moser, and Silke Trömel
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 2089–2106, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2089-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2089-2023, 2023
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We present an evaluation of current retrieval techniques in the ice phase applied to polarimetric radar measurements with collocated in situ observations of aircraft conducted over the Olympic Mountains, Washington State, during winter 2015. Radar estimates of ice properties agreed most with aircraft observations in regions with pronounced radar signatures, but uncertainties were identified that indicate issues of some retrievals, particularly in warmer temperature regimes.
Bibi S. Naz, Wendy Sharples, Yueling Ma, Klaus Goergen, and Stefan Kollet
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1617–1639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1617-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1617-2023, 2023
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It is challenging to apply a high-resolution integrated land surface and groundwater model over large spatial scales. In this paper, we demonstrate the application of such a model over a pan-European domain at 3 km resolution and perform an extensive evaluation of simulated water states and fluxes by comparing with in situ and satellite data. This study can serve as a benchmark and baseline for future studies of climate change impact projections and for hydrological forecasting.
Prabhakar Shrestha, Silke Trömel, Raquel Evaristo, and Clemens Simmer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7593–7618, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7593-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7593-2022, 2022
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The study makes use of ensemble numerical simulations with forward operator to evaluate the simulated cloud and precipitation processes with radar observations. While comparing model data with radar has its own challenges due to errors in the forward operator and processed radar measurements, the model was generally found to underestimate the high reflectivity, width/magnitude (value) of ZDR columns and high precipitation.
Prabhakar Shrestha, Jana Mendrok, Velibor Pejcic, Silke Trömel, Ulrich Blahak, and Jacob T. Carlin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 291–313, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-291-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-291-2022, 2022
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The article focuses on the exploitation of radar polarimetry for model evaluation of stratiform precipitation. The model exhibited a low bias in simulated polarimetric moments at lower levels above the melting layer where snow was found to dominate. This necessitates further research into the missing microphysical processes in these lower levels (e.g. fragmentation due to ice–ice collisions) and use of more reliable snow-scattering models in the forward operator to draw valid conclusions.
Silke Trömel, Clemens Simmer, Ulrich Blahak, Armin Blanke, Sabine Doktorowski, Florian Ewald, Michael Frech, Mathias Gergely, Martin Hagen, Tijana Janjic, Heike Kalesse-Los, Stefan Kneifel, Christoph Knote, Jana Mendrok, Manuel Moser, Gregor Köcher, Kai Mühlbauer, Alexander Myagkov, Velibor Pejcic, Patric Seifert, Prabhakar Shrestha, Audrey Teisseire, Leonie von Terzi, Eleni Tetoni, Teresa Vogl, Christiane Voigt, Yuefei Zeng, Tobias Zinner, and Johannes Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17291–17314, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17291-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17291-2021, 2021
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The article introduces the ACP readership to ongoing research in Germany on cloud- and precipitation-related process information inherent in polarimetric radar measurements, outlines pathways to inform atmospheric models with radar-based information, and points to remaining challenges towards an improved fusion of radar polarimetry and atmospheric modelling.
Bernd Schalge, Gabriele Baroni, Barbara Haese, Daniel Erdal, Gernot Geppert, Pablo Saavedra, Vincent Haefliger, Harry Vereecken, Sabine Attinger, Harald Kunstmann, Olaf A. Cirpka, Felix Ament, Stefan Kollet, Insa Neuweiler, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, and Clemens Simmer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4437–4464, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4437-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4437-2021, 2021
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In this study, a 9-year simulation of complete model output of a coupled atmosphere–land-surface–subsurface model on the catchment scale is discussed. We used the Neckar catchment in SW Germany as the basis of this simulation. Since the dataset includes the full model output, it is not only possible to investigate model behavior and interactions between the component models but also use it as a virtual truth for comparison of, for example, data assimilation experiments.
Yueling Ma, Carsten Montzka, Bagher Bayat, and Stefan Kollet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3555–3575, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3555-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3555-2021, 2021
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This study utilized spatiotemporally continuous precipitation anomaly (pra) and water table depth anomaly (wtda) data from integrated hydrologic simulation results over Europe in combination with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to capture the time-varying and time-lagged relationship between pra and wtda in order to obtain reliable models to estimate wtda at the individual pixel level.
Benjamin N. O. Kuffour, Nicholas B. Engdahl, Carol S. Woodward, Laura E. Condon, Stefan Kollet, and Reed M. Maxwell
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1373–1397, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1373-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1373-2020, 2020
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Integrated hydrologic models (IHMs) were developed in order to allow for more accurate simulations of real-world ecohydrologic conditions. Many IHMs exist, and the literature can be dense, so it is often difficult to understand what a specific model can and cannot do. We provide a review of the current core capabilities, solution techniques, communication structure with other models, some limitations, and potential future improvements of one such open-source integrated model called ParFlow.
José Dias Neto, Stefan Kneifel, Davide Ori, Silke Trömel, Jan Handwerker, Birger Bohn, Normen Hermes, Kai Mühlbauer, Martin Lenefer, and Clemens Simmer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 845–863, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-845-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-845-2019, 2019
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This study describes a 2-month dataset of ground-based, vertically pointing triple-frequency cloud radar observations recorded during the winter season 2015/2016 in Jülich, Germany. Intensive quality control has been applied to the unique long-term dataset, which allows the multifrequency signatures of ice and snow particles to be statistically analyzed for the first time. The analysis includes, for example, aggregation and its dependence on cloud temperature, riming, and onset of melting.
Bibi S. Naz, Wolfgang Kurtz, Carsten Montzka, Wendy Sharples, Klaus Goergen, Jessica Keune, Huilin Gao, Anne Springer, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, and Stefan Kollet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 277–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-277-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-277-2019, 2019
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This study investigates the value of assimilating coarse-resolution remotely sensed soil moisture data into high-resolution land surface models for improving soil moisture and runoff modeling. The soil moisture estimates in this study, with complete spatio-temporal coverage and improved spatial resolution from the assimilation, offer a new reanalysis product for the monitoring of surface soil water content and other hydrological fluxes at 3 km resolution over Europe.
Wendy Sharples, Ilya Zhukov, Markus Geimer, Klaus Goergen, Sebastian Luehrs, Thomas Breuer, Bibi Naz, Ketan Kulkarni, Slavko Brdar, and Stefan Kollet
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2875–2895, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2875-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2875-2018, 2018
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Next-generation geoscientific models are based on complex model implementations and workflows. Next-generation HPC systems require new programming paradigms and code optimization. In order to meet the challenge of running complex simulations on new massively parallel HPC systems, we developed a run control framework that facilitates code portability, code profiling, and provenance tracking to reduce both the duration and the cost of code migration and development, while ensuring reproducibility.
Andreas Macke, Patric Seifert, Holger Baars, Christian Barthlott, Christoph Beekmans, Andreas Behrendt, Birger Bohn, Matthias Brueck, Johannes Bühl, Susanne Crewell, Thomas Damian, Hartwig Deneke, Sebastian Düsing, Andreas Foth, Paolo Di Girolamo, Eva Hammann, Rieke Heinze, Anne Hirsikko, John Kalisch, Norbert Kalthoff, Stefan Kinne, Martin Kohler, Ulrich Löhnert, Bomidi Lakshmi Madhavan, Vera Maurer, Shravan Kumar Muppa, Jan Schween, Ilya Serikov, Holger Siebert, Clemens Simmer, Florian Späth, Sandra Steinke, Katja Träumner, Silke Trömel, Birgit Wehner, Andreas Wieser, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Xinxin Xie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4887–4914, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4887-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4887-2017, 2017
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This article provides an overview of the instrumental setup and the main results obtained during the two HD(CP)2 Observational Prototype Experiments HOPE-Jülich and HOPE-Melpitz conducted in Germany in April–May and Sept 2013, respectively. Goal of the field experiments was to provide high-resolution observational datasets for both, improving the understaning of boundary layer and cloud processes, as well as for the evaluation of the new ICON model that is run at 156 m horizontal resolution.
Bernd Schalge, Jehan Rihani, Gabriele Baroni, Daniel Erdal, Gernot Geppert, Vincent Haefliger, Barbara Haese, Pablo Saavedra, Insa Neuweiler, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, Felix Ament, Sabine Attinger, Olaf A. Cirpka, Stefan Kollet, Harald Kunstmann, Harry Vereecken, and Clemens Simmer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-557, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-557, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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In this work we show how we used a coupled atmosphere-land surface-subsurface model at highest possible resolution to create a testbed for data assimilation. The model was able to capture all important processes and interactions between the compartments as well as showing realistic statistical behavior. This proves that using a model as a virtual truth is possible and it will enable us to develop data assimilation methods where states and parameters are updated across compartment.
Stefan J. Kollet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2801–2809, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2801-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2801-2016, 2016
Xinxin Xie, Raquel Evaristo, Clemens Simmer, Jan Handwerker, and Silke Trömel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7105–7116, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7105-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7105-2016, 2016
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This study provides a first analysis of rainfall observations and related microphysical processes during the HOPE campaign, which will benefit future studies on the evaluation and improvement of climate models within the HD(CP)2 framework. The results conveyed in this study confirm that polarimetric radars have the capability to validate weather and climate models with respect to rainfall estimation and the ongoing microphysical processes.
Wolfgang Kurtz, Guowei He, Stefan J. Kollet, Reed M. Maxwell, Harry Vereecken, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1341–1360, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1341-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1341-2016, 2016
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This paper describes the development of a modular data assimilation (DA) system for the integrated Earth system model TerrSysMP with the help of the PDAF data assimilation library.
Currently, pressure and soil moisture data can be used to update model states and parameters in the subsurface compartment of TerrSysMP.
Results from an idealized twin experiment show that the developed DA system provides a good parallel performance and is also applicable for high-resolution modelling problems.
P. Shrestha, M. Sulis, C. Simmer, and S. Kollet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4317–4326, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4317-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4317-2015, 2015
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This study highlights the grid resolution dependence of energy and water balance of the 3-D physically based integrated surface-groundwater model. The non-local controls of soil moisture were found to be highly grid resolution dependent, but the local vegetation control strongly modulates the scaling behavior of surface energy fluxes. For coupled runs, variability in patterns of surface fluxes due to this scale dependence can affect the simulated atmospheric boundary layer and local circulation.
X. Han, X. Li, G. He, P. Kumbhar, C. Montzka, S. Kollet, T. Miyoshi, R. Rosolem, Y. Zhang, H. Vereecken, and H.-J. H. Franssen
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-8-7395-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-8-7395-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
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DasPy is a ready to use open source parallel multivariate land data assimilation framework with joint state and parameter estimation using Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. The Community Land Model (4.5) was integrated as model operator. The Community Microwave Emission Modelling platform, COsmic-ray Soil Moisture Interaction Code and the Two-Source Formulation were integrated as observation operators for the multivariate assimilation of soil moisture and soil temperature, respectively.
R. M. Maxwell, L. E. Condon, and S. J. Kollet
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 923–937, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-923-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-923-2015, 2015
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A model that simulates groundwater and surface water flow has been developed for the major river basins of the continental United States. Fundamental data sets provide input to the model resulting in a natural organization of stream networks and groundwater flow that is compared to observations of surface water and groundwater. Model results show relationships between flow and area that are moderated by aridity and represent an important step toward integrated hydrological prediction.
A. Belleflamme, X. Fettweis, and M. Erpicum
The Cryosphere, 9, 53–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-53-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-53-2015, 2015
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The 2007-2012 summertime circulation anomaly over the Arctic region (i.e. more high pressure systems over the Beaufort Sea, the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and Greenland) is put in a historical perspective. While the 2007-2012 anomaly seems to be exceptional, similar circulation conditions have occurred since 1871, on the basis of five reanalyses (ERA-Interim, ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR, ERA-20C, 20CRv2). The attribution of this anomaly (natural variability or global warming) remains debatable.
F. Gasper, K. Goergen, P. Shrestha, M. Sulis, J. Rihani, M. Geimer, and S. Kollet
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2531–2543, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2531-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2531-2014, 2014
X. Fettweis, E. Hanna, C. Lang, A. Belleflamme, M. Erpicum, and H. Gallée
The Cryosphere, 7, 241–248, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-241-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-241-2013, 2013
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A climate-conditioned catastrophe risk model for UK flooding
A globally applicable framework for compound flood hazard modeling
Transferability of data-driven models to predict urban pluvial flood water depth in Berlin, Germany
Brief communication: Inclusiveness in designing an early warning system for flood resilience
Evolution of multivariate drought hazard, vulnerability and risk in India under climate change
A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 1: Event description and analysis
Bare-earth DEM generation from ArcticDEM and its use in flood simulation
Comparison of estimated flood exposure and consequences generated by different event-based inland flood inundation maps
Estimating the likelihood of roadway pluvial flood based on crowdsourced traffic data and depression-based DEM analysis
A multi-strategy-mode waterlogging-prediction framework for urban flood depth
Multiscale flood risk assessment under climate change: the case of the Miño River in the city of Ourense, Spain
Interactions between precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil-moisture-based indices to characterize drought with high-resolution remote sensing and land-surface model data
Rare flood scenarios for a rapidly growing high-mountain city: Pokhara, Nepal
Brief communication: Impact forecasting could substantially improve the emergency management of deadly floods: case study July 2021 floods in Germany
Brief communication: Western Europe flood in 2021 – mapping agriculture flood exposure from synthetic aperture radar (SAR)
Comprehensive space–time hydrometeorological simulations for estimating very rare floods at multiple sites in a large river basin
A new index to quantify the extremeness of precipitation across scales
Nils Poncet, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Yves Tramblay, Guillaume Thirel, Humberto Vergara, Jonathan Gourley, and Antoinette Alias
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1163–1183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, 2024
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High-resolution convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) are now available to better simulate rainstorm events leading to flash floods. In this study, two hydrological models are compared to simulate floods in a Mediterranean basin, showing a better ability of the CPM to reproduce flood peaks compared to coarser-resolution climate models. Future projections are also different, with a projected increase for the most severe floods and a potential decrease for the most frequent events.
Wilson C. H. Chan, Nigel W. Arnell, Geoff Darch, Katie Facer-Childs, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Maliko Tanguy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1065–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, 2024
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The most recent drought in the UK was declared in summer 2022. We pooled a large sample of plausible winters from seasonal hindcasts and grouped them into four clusters based on their atmospheric circulation configurations. Drought storylines representative of what the drought could have looked like if winter 2022/23 resembled each winter circulation storyline were created to explore counterfactuals of how bad the 2022 drought could have been over winter 2022/23 and beyond.
Dino Collalti, Nekeisha Spencer, and Eric Strobl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 873–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, 2024
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The risk of extreme rainfall events causing floods is likely increasing with climate change. Flash floods, which follow immediately after extreme rainfall, are particularly difficult to forecast and assess. We develop a decision rule for flash flood classification with data on all incidents between 2001 and 2018 in Jamaica with the statistical copula method. This decision rule tells us for any rainfall event of a certain duration how intense it has to be to likely trigger a flash flood.
Ivan Vorobevskii, Thi Thanh Luong, and Rico Kronenberg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 681–697, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, 2024
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This study presents a new version of a framework which allows us to model water balance components at any site on a local scale. Compared with the first version, the second incorporates new datasets used to set up and force the model. In particular, we highlight the ability of the framework to provide seasonal forecasts. This gives potential stakeholders (farmers, foresters, policymakers, etc.) the possibility to forecast, for example, soil moisture drought and thus apply the necessary measures.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Alexandre M. Ramos, José González-Cao, Orlando García-Feal, Cristina Catita, Moncho Gómez-Gesteira, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 609–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, 2024
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The present study focuses on an in-depth analysis of floods in the lower section of the Tagus River from a hydrodynamic perspective by means of the Iber+ numerical model and on the development of dam operating strategies to mitigate flood episodes using the exceptional floods of February 1979 as a benchmark. The results corroborate the model's capability to evaluate floods in the study area and confirm the effectiveness of the proposed strategies to reduce flood impact in the lower Tagus valley.
Laurence Hawker, Jeffrey Neal, James Savage, Thomas Kirkpatrick, Rachel Lord, Yanos Zylberberg, Andre Groeger, Truong Dang Thuy, Sean Fox, Felix Agyemang, and Pham Khanh Nam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 539–566, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, 2024
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We present a global flood model built using a new terrain data set and evaluated in the Central Highlands of Vietnam.
Andrea Abbate, Leonardo Mancusi, Francesco Apadula, Antonella Frigerio, Monica Papini, and Laura Longoni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 501–537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, 2024
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CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment) is a new physically based and spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model. The main novelties consist of reproducing rainfall-induced geo-hydrological hazards such as shallow landslide, debris flow and watershed erosion through a multi-hazard approach. CRHyME was written in Python, works at a high spatial and temporal resolution, and is a tool suitable for quantifying extreme rainfall consequences at the basin scale.
Leanne Archer, Jeffrey Neal, Paul Bates, Emily Vosper, Dereka Carroll, Jeison Sosa, and Daniel Mitchell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 375–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, 2024
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We model hurricane-rainfall-driven flooding to assess how the number of people exposed to flooding changes in Puerto Rico under the 1.5 and 2 °C Paris Agreement goals. Our analysis suggests 8 %–10 % of the population is currently exposed to flooding on average every 5 years, increasing by 2 %–15 % and 1 %–20 % at 1.5 and 2 °C. This has implications for adaptation to more extreme flooding in Puerto Rico and demonstrates that 1.5 °C climate change carries a significant increase in risk.
Luis Cea, Manuel Álvarez, and Jerónimo Puertas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 225–243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, 2024
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Mozambique is highly exposed to the impact of floods. To reduce flood damage, it is necessary to develop mitigation measures. Hydrological software is a very useful tool for that purpose, since it allows for a precise quantification of flood hazard in different scenarios. We present a methodology to quantify flood hazard in data-scarce regions, using freely available data and software, and we show its potential by analysing the flood event that took place in the Umbeluzi Basin in February 2023.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Francesco Dottori, Simone Gabellani, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Alessandro Masoero, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Nicola Testa, Eva Trasforini, Ahmed Amdihun, Jully Ouma, Luca Rossi, Yves Tramblay, Huan Wu, and Marco Massabò
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 199–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, 2024
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This work describes Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based flood forecasting system for the Greater Horn of Africa. It is based on hydrological simulations, inundation mapping, and estimation of population and assets exposed to upcoming river floods. The system supports duty officers in African institutions in the daily monitoring of hydro-meteorological disasters. A first evaluation shows the system performance for the catastrophic floods in the Nile River basin in summer 2020.
Christoph Nathanael von Matt, Regula Mülchi, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-6, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-6, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The simultaneous occurrence of meteorological (precipitation), agricultural (soil moisture) and hydrological (streamflow) drought can lead to augmented impacts. By analysing drought indices derived from newest climate scenarios for Switzerland (CH2018, Hydro-CH2018), we show that with climate change the concurrence of all drought types will increase in all investigated regions of Switzerland. Our results highlight the benefits and need of both mitigation and adaptation measures at early stages.
Jan Sodoge, Christian Kuhlicke, Miguel D. Mahecha, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-228, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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We delved into the socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 drought in Germany. We derived a dataset covering the impacts of droughts in Germany between 2000 and 2022 on sectors such as agriculture and forestry based on newspaper articles. Notably, our study illustrated that the longer drought had a wider reach and more varied effects . We show that dealing with longer droughts requires different plans compared to shorter ones, and it's crucial to be ready for the challenges they bring.
Nejc Bezak, Panos Panagos, Leonidas Liakos, and Matjaž Mikoš
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3885–3893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, 2023
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Extreme flooding occurred in Slovenia in August 2023. This brief communication examines the main causes, mechanisms and effects of this event. The flood disaster of August 2023 can be described as relatively extreme and was probably the most extreme flood event in Slovenia in recent decades. The economic damage was large and could amount to well over 5 % of Slovenia's annual gross domestic product; the event also claimed three lives.
Ana Paez-Trujilo, Jeffer Cañon, Beatriz Hernandez, Gerald Corzo, and Dimitri Solomatine
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3863–3883, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, 2023
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This study uses a machine learning technique, the multivariate regression tree approach, to assess the hydroclimatic characteristics that govern agricultural and hydrological drought severity. The results show that the employed technique successfully identified the primary drivers of droughts and their critical thresholds. In addition, it provides relevant information to identify the areas most vulnerable to droughts and design strategies and interventions for drought management.
Theo St. Pierre Ostrander, Thomé Kraus, Bruno Mazzorana, Johannes Holzner, Andrea Andreoli, Francesco Comiti, and Bernhard Gems
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2432, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2432, 2023
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Mountain river confluences are hazardous during localized flooding events. Results from a physical model were used to determine the dominant controls over mountain confluences. Contrary to lowland confluences, in mountain regions, the channel discharges and then the tributary sediment concentration controls morphological patterns. Applying conclusions drawn from lowland confluences could misrepresent depositional and erosional patterns and the related flood hazard at mountain river confluences.
Bouchra Zellou, Nabil El Moçayd, and El Houcine Bergou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3543–3583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, 2023
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In this study, we underscore the critical importance of strengthening drought prediction capabilities in the Mediterranean region. We present an in-depth evaluation of current drought forecasting approaches, encompassing statistical, dynamical, and hybrid statistical–dynamical models, and highlight unexplored research opportunities. Additionally, we suggest viable directions to enhance drought prediction and early warning systems within the area.
Francisco Rodrigues do Amaral, Nicolas Gratiot, Thierry Pellarin, and Tran Anh Tu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3379–3405, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3379-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3379-2023, 2023
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We propose an in-depth analysis of typhoon-induced compound flood drivers in the megacity of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. We use in situ and satellite measurements throughout the event to form a holistic overview of its impact. No evidence of storm surge was found, and peak precipitation presents a 16 h time lag to peak river discharge, which evacuates only 1.5 % of available water. The astronomical tide controls the river level even during the extreme event, and it is the main urban flood driver.
Mario Di Bacco, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-179, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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INSYDE 2.0, a tool for flood damage modelling to residential buildings. By incorporating ultra-detailed survey and desk-based data, it improves the reliability and informativeness of damage assessments while addressing input data uncertainties.
Juliette Godet, Olivier Payrastre, Pierre Javelle, and François Bouttier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3355–3377, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, 2023
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This article results from a master's research project which was part of a natural hazards programme developed by the French Ministry of Ecological Transition. The objective of this work was to investigate a possible way to improve the operational flash flood warning service by adding rainfall forecasts upstream of the forecasting chain. The results showed that the tested forecast product, which is new and experimental, has a real added value compared to other classical forecast products.
Florian Roth, Bernhard Bauer-Marschallinger, Mark Edwin Tupas, Christoph Reimer, Peter Salamon, and Wolfgang Wagner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3305–3317, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, 2023
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In August and September 2022, millions of people were impacted by a severe flood event in Pakistan. Since many roads and other infrastructure were destroyed, satellite data were the only way of providing large-scale information on the flood's impact. Based on the flood mapping algorithm developed at Technische Universität Wien (TU Wien), we mapped an area of 30 492 km2 that was flooded at least once during the study's time period. This affected area matches about the total area of Belgium.
Clément Houdard, Adrien Poupardin, Philippe Sergent, Abdelkrim Bennabi, and Jena Jeong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3111–3124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3111-2023, 2023
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We developed a system able to to predict, knowing the appropriate characteristics of the flood defense structure and sea state, the return periods of potentially dangerous events as well as a ranking of parameters by order of uncertainty.
The model is a combination of statistical and empirical methods that have been applied to a Mediterranean earthen dike. This shows that the most important characteristics of the dyke are its geometrical features, such as its height and slope angles.
Melody Gwyneth Whitehead and Mark Stephen Bebbington
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-160, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-160, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Precipitation-driven hazards including floods, landslides, and lahars can be catastrophic and difficult to forecast due to high uncertainty around future weather patterns. This work presents SWM, a stochastic weather model that produces catchment-scale stochastically similar (realistic) rainfall over long time periods at minimal computational cost. These data provide much needed inputs for hazard simulations to support long-term, time- and spatially varying, risk assessments.
Lisa Köhler, Torsten Masson, Sabrina Köhler, and Christian Kuhlicke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2787–2806, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2787-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2787-2023, 2023
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We analyzed the impact of flood experience on adaptive behavior and self-reported resilience. The outcomes draw a paradoxical picture: the most experienced people are the most adapted but the least resilient. We find evidence for non-linear relationships between the number of floods experienced and resilience. We contribute to existing knowledge by focusing specifically on the number of floods experienced and extending the rare scientific literature on the influence of experience on resilience.
Helen Hooker, Sarah L. Dance, David C. Mason, John Bevington, and Kay Shelton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2769–2785, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023, 2023
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Ensemble forecasts of flood inundation produce maps indicating the probability of flooding. A new approach is presented to evaluate the spatial performance of an ensemble flood map forecast by comparison against remotely observed flooding extents. This is important for understanding forecast uncertainties and improving flood forecasting systems.
Betina I. Guido, Ioana Popescu, Vidya Samadi, and Biswa Bhattacharya
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2663–2681, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2663-2023, 2023
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We used an integrated model to evaluate the impacts of nature-based solutions (NBSs) on flood mitigation across the Little Pee Dee and Lumber River watershed, the Carolinas, US. This area is strongly affected by climatic disasters, which are expected to increase due to climate change and urbanization, so exploring an NBS approach is crucial for adapting to future alterations. Our research found that NBSs can have visible effects on the reduction in hurricane-driven flooding.
Maliko Tanguy, Michael Eastman, Eugene Magee, Lucy J. Barker, Thomas Chitson, Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit, Daniel Goodwin, Jamie Hannaford, Ian Holman, Liwa Pardthaisong, Simon Parry, Dolores Rey Vicario, and Supattra Visessri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2419–2441, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, 2023
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Droughts in Thailand are becoming more severe due to climate change. Understanding the link between drought impacts on the ground and drought indicators used in drought monitoring systems can help increase a country's preparedness and resilience to drought. With a focus on agricultural droughts, we derive crop- and region-specific indicator-to-impact links that can form the basis of targeted mitigation actions and an improved drought monitoring and early warning system in Thailand.
Leon Scheiber, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Christian Jordan, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2313–2332, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2313-2023, 2023
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Numerical models are increasingly important for assessing urban flooding, yet reliable input data are oftentimes hard to obtain. Taking Ho Chi Minh City as an example, this paper explores the usability and reliability of open-access data to produce preliminary risk maps that provide first insights into potential flooding hotspots. As a key novelty, a normalized flood severity index is presented which combines flood depth and duration to enhance the interpretation of hydro-numerical results.
Claudia Herbert and Petra Döll
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2111–2131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2111-2023, 2023
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This paper presents a new method for selecting streamflow drought hazard indicators for monitoring drought hazard for human water supply and river ecosystems in large-scale drought early warning systems. Indicators are classified by their inherent assumptions about the habituation of people and ecosystems to the streamflow regime and their level of drought characterization, namely drought magnitude (water deficit at a certain point in time) and severity (cumulated magnitude since drought onset).
Maryse Charpentier-Noyer, Daniela Peredo, Axelle Fleury, Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, Eric Gaume, Pierre Nicolle, Olivier Payrastre, and Maria-Helena Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, 2023
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This paper proposes a methodological framework designed for event-based evaluation in the context of an intense flash-flood event. The evaluation adopts the point of view of end users, with a focus on the anticipation of exceedances of discharge thresholds. With a study of rainfall forecasts, a discharge evaluation and a detailed look at the forecast hydrographs, the evaluation framework should help in drawing robust conclusions about the usefulness of new rainfall ensemble forecasts.
Min Li, Mingfeng Zhang, Runxiang Cao, Yidi Sun, and Xiyuan Deng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1453–1464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023, 2023
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It is an important disaster reduction strategy to forecast hydrological drought. In order to analyse the impact of human activities on hydrological drought, we constructed the human activity factor based on the method of restoration. With the increase of human index (HI) value, hydrological droughts tend to transition to more severe droughts. The conditional distribution model involving of human activity factor can further improve the forecasting accuracy of drought in the Luanhe River basin.
Patrick Ludwig, Florian Ehmele, Mário J. Franca, Susanna Mohr, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Uwe Ehret, Hendrik Feldmann, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1287–1311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, 2023
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Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
Nadav Peleg, Herminia Torelló-Sentelles, Grégoire Mariéthoz, Lionel Benoit, João P. Leitão, and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1233–1240, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, 2023
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Floods in urban areas are one of the most common natural hazards. Due to climate change enhancing extreme rainfall and cities becoming larger and denser, the impacts of these events are expected to increase. A fast and reliable flood warning system should thus be implemented in flood-prone cities to warn the public of upcoming floods. The purpose of this brief communication is to discuss the potential implementation of low-cost acoustic rainfall sensors in short-term flood warning systems.
Katharina Lengfeld, Paul Voit, Frank Kaspar, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1227–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, 2023
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Estimating the severity of a rainfall event based on the damage caused is easy but highly depends on the affected region. A less biased measure for the extremeness of an event is its rarity combined with its spatial extent. In this brief communication, we investigate the sensitivity of such measures to the underlying dataset and highlight the importance of considering multiple spatial and temporal scales using the devastating rainfall event in July 2021 in central Europe as an example.
Paul D. Bates, James Savage, Oliver Wing, Niall Quinn, Christopher Sampson, Jeffrey Neal, and Andrew Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 891–908, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023, 2023
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We present and validate a model that simulates current and future flood risk for the UK at high resolution (~ 20–25 m). We show that UK flood losses were ~ 6 % greater in the climate of 2020 compared to recent historical values. The UK can keep any future increase to ~ 8 % if all countries implement their COP26 pledges and net-zero ambitions in full. However, if only the COP26 pledges are fulfilled, then UK flood losses increase by ~ 23 %; and potentially by ~ 37 % in a worst-case scenario.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Tim Leijnse, Hiroaki Ikeuchi, Dai Yamazaki, Sanne Muis, Job Dullaart, Arjen Haag, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 823–846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, 2023
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In coastal deltas, flooding can occur from interactions between coastal, riverine, and pluvial drivers, so-called compound flooding. Global models however ignore these interactions. We present a framework for automated and reproducible compound flood modeling anywhere globally and validate it for two historical events in Mozambique with good results. The analysis reveals differences in compound flood dynamics between both events related to the magnitude of and time lag between drivers.
Omar Seleem, Georgy Ayzel, Axel Bronstert, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 809–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-809-2023, 2023
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Data-driven models are becoming more of a surrogate that overcomes the limitations of the computationally expensive 2D hydrodynamic models to map urban flood hazards. However, the model's ability to generalize outside the training domain is still a major challenge. We evaluate the performance of random forest and convolutional neural networks to predict urban floodwater depth and investigate their transferability outside the training domain.
Tahmina Yasmin, Kieran Khamis, Anthony Ross, Subir Sen, Anita Sharma, Debashish Sen, Sumit Sen, Wouter Buytaert, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 667–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-667-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-667-2023, 2023
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Floods continue to be a wicked problem that require developing early warning systems with plausible assumptions of risk behaviour, with more targeted conversations with the community at risk. Through this paper we advocate the use of a SMART approach to encourage bottom-up initiatives to develop inclusive and purposeful early warning systems that benefit the community at risk by engaging them at every step of the way along with including other stakeholders at multiple scales of operations.
Venkataswamy Sahana and Arpita Mondal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 623–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-623-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-623-2023, 2023
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In an agriculture-dependent, densely populated country such as India, drought risk projection is important to assess future water security. This study presents the first comprehensive drought risk assessment over India, integrating hazard and vulnerability information. Future drought risk is found to be more significantly driven by increased vulnerability resulting from societal developments rather than climate-induced changes in hazard. These findings can inform planning for drought resilience.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2023
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The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Yinxue Liu, Paul D. Bates, and Jeffery C. Neal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 375–391, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-375-2023, 2023
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In this paper, we test two approaches for removing buildings and other above-ground objects from a state-of-the-art satellite photogrammetry topography product, ArcticDEM. Our best technique gives a 70 % reduction in vertical error, with an average difference of 1.02 m from a benchmark lidar for the city of Helsinki, Finland. When used in a simulation of rainfall-driven flooding, the bare-earth version of ArcticDEM yields a significant improvement in predicted inundation extent and water depth.
Joseph L. Gutenson, Ahmad A. Tavakoly, Mohammad S. Islam, Oliver E. J. Wing, William P. Lehman, Chase O. Hamilton, Mark D. Wahl, and T. Christopher Massey
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-261-2023, 2023
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Emergency managers use event-based flood inundation maps (FIMs) to plan and coordinate flood emergency response. We perform a case study test of three different FIM frameworks to see if FIM differences lead to substantial differences in the location and magnitude of flood exposure and consequences. We find that the FIMs are very different spatially and that the spatial differences do produce differences in the location and magnitude of exposure and consequences.
Arefeh Safaei-Moghadam, David Tarboton, and Barbara Minsker
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1-2023, 2023
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Climate change, urbanization, and aging infrastructure contribute to flooding on roadways. This study evaluates the potential for flood reports collected from Waze – a community-based navigation app – to predict these events. Waze reports correlate primarily with low-lying depressions on roads. Therefore, we developed two data-driven models to determine whether roadways will flood. Analysis showed that in the city of Dallas, drainage area and imperviousness are the most significant contributors.
Zongjia Zhang, Jun Liang, Yujue Zhou, Zhejun Huang, Jie Jiang, Junguo Liu, and Lili Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4139–4165, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4139-2022, 2022
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An innovative multi-strategy-mode waterlogging-prediction framework for predicting waterlogging depth is proposed in the paper. The framework selects eight regression algorithms for comparison and tests the prediction accuracy and robustness of the model under different prediction strategies. Ultimately, the accuracy of predicting water depth after 30 min can exceed 86.1 %. This can aid decision-making in terms of issuing early warning information and determining emergency responses in advance.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Orlando García-Feal, José González-Cao, Maite deCastro, and Moncho Gómez-Gesteira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3957–3972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3957-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3957-2022, 2022
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A multiscale analysis, where the historical and future precipitation data from the CORDEX project were used as input in a hydrological model (HEC-HMS) that, in turn, feeds a 2D hydraulic model (Iber+), was applied to the case of the Miño-Sil basin (NW Spain), specifically to Ourense city, in order to analyze future changes in flood hazard. Detailed flood maps indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of future floods, implying an increase in flood hazard in important areas of the city.
Jaime Gaona, Pere Quintana-Seguí, María José Escorihuela, Aaron Boone, and María Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3461–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3461-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3461-2022, 2022
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Droughts represent a particularly complex natural hazard and require explorations of their multiple causes. Part of the complexity has roots in the interaction between the continuous changes in and deviation from normal conditions of the atmosphere and the land surface. The exchange between the atmospheric and surface conditions defines feedback towards dry or wet conditions. In semi-arid environments, energy seems to exceed water in its impact over the evolution of conditions, favoring drought.
Melanie Fischer, Jana Brettin, Sigrid Roessner, Ariane Walz, Monique Fort, and Oliver Korup
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3105–3123, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3105-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3105-2022, 2022
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Nepal’s second-largest city has been rapidly growing since the 1970s, although its valley has been affected by rare, catastrophic floods in recent and historic times. We analyse potential impacts of such floods on urban areas and infrastructure by modelling 10 physically plausible flood scenarios along Pokhara’s main river. We find that hydraulic effects would largely affect a number of squatter settlements, which have expanded rapidly towards the river by a factor of up to 20 since 2008.
Heiko Apel, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3005–3014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022, 2022
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The paper presents a fast 2D hydraulic simulation model for flood propagation that enables operational forecasts of spatially distributed inundation depths, flood extent, flow velocities, and other flood impacts. The detailed spatial forecast of floods and flood impacts is a large step forward from the currently operational forecasts of discharges at selected gauges, thus enabling a more targeted flood management and early warning.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2921–2927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2921-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2921-2022, 2022
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This study depicts the flood-affected areas in western Europe in July 2021 and particularly the agriculture land that was under flood inundation. The results indicate that the total inundated area over western Europe is about 1920 km2, of which 1320 km2 is in France. Around 64 % of the inundated area is agricultural land. We expect that the agricultural productivity in western Europe will have been severely impacted.
Daniel Viviroli, Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner, Guillaume Evin, Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Jérémy Chardon, Anne-Catherine Favre, Benoit Hingray, Gilles Nicolet, Damien Raynaud, Jan Seibert, Rolf Weingartner, and Calvin Whealton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2891–2920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022, 2022
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Estimating the magnitude of rare to very rare floods is a challenging task due to a lack of sufficiently long observations. The challenge is even greater in large river basins, where precipitation patterns and amounts differ considerably between individual events and floods from different parts of the basin coincide. We show that a hydrometeorological model chain can provide plausible estimates in this setting and can thus inform flood risk and safety assessments for critical infrastructure.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2791–2805, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2791-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2791-2022, 2022
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To better understand how the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events (HPEs) will change with changing climate and to adapt disaster risk management accordingly, we have to quantify the extremeness of HPEs in a reliable way. We introduce the xWEI (cross-scale WEI) and show that this index can reveal important characteristics of HPEs that would otherwise remain hidden. We conclude that the xWEI could be a valuable instrument in both disaster risk management and research.
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Short summary
On 14 July 2021, heavy rainfall fell over central Europe, causing considerable damage and human fatalities. We analyzed how accurate our estimates of rainfall and peak flow were for these flooding events in western Germany. We found that the rainfall estimates from radar measurements were improved by including polarimetric variables and their vertical gradients. Peak flow estimates were highly uncertain due to uncertainties in hydrological model parameters and rainfall measurements.
On 14 July 2021, heavy rainfall fell over central Europe, causing considerable damage and human...
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