Articles | Volume 23, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-159-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-159-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Jan 2023
Research article |
| 17 Jan 2023
| 17 Jan 2023
How uncertain are precipitation and peak flow estimates for the July 2021 flooding event?
Mohamed Saadi
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Bio- and Geosciences (IBG-3, Agrosphere), Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich 52425, Germany
Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems, Geoverbund ABC/J, Jülich 52428, Germany
Institut de Mécanique des Fluides de Toulouse (INPT-CNRS-UPS), Toulouse 31400, France
Carina Furusho-Percot
Institute for Bio- and Geosciences (IBG-3, Agrosphere), Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich 52425, Germany
Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems, Geoverbund ABC/J, Jülich 52428, Germany
INRAE Centre de Recherche PACA, US 1116 AGROCLIM, Avignon 84914, France
Alexandre Belleflamme
Institute for Bio- and Geosciences (IBG-3, Agrosphere), Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich 52425, Germany
Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems, Geoverbund ABC/J, Jülich 52428, Germany
Ju-Yu Chen
Institute for Geosciences, Department of Meteorology, Universität Bonn, Bonn 53121, Germany
Silke Trömel
Institute for Geosciences, Department of Meteorology, Universität Bonn, Bonn 53121, Germany
Laboratory for Clouds and Precipitation Exploration, Geoverbund ABC/J, Bonn 53121, Germany
Stefan Kollet
Institute for Bio- and Geosciences (IBG-3, Agrosphere), Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich 52425, Germany
Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems, Geoverbund ABC/J, Jülich 52428, Germany
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Short summary
On 14 July 2021, heavy rainfall fell over central Europe, causing considerable damage and human fatalities. We analyzed how accurate our estimates of rainfall and peak flow were for these flooding events in western Germany. We found that the rainfall estimates from radar measurements were improved by including polarimetric variables and their vertical gradients. Peak flow estimates were highly uncertain due to uncertainties in hydrological model parameters and rainfall measurements.
On 14 July 2021, heavy rainfall fell over central Europe, causing considerable damage and human...
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