Articles | Volume 23, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-159-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-159-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Jan 2023
Research article |
| 17 Jan 2023
| 17 Jan 2023
How uncertain are precipitation and peak flow estimates for the July 2021 flooding event?
Mohamed Saadi
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Bio- and Geosciences (IBG-3, Agrosphere), Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich 52425, Germany
Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems, Geoverbund ABC/J, Jülich 52428, Germany
Institut de Mécanique des Fluides de Toulouse (INPT-CNRS-UPS), Toulouse 31400, France
Carina Furusho-Percot
Institute for Bio- and Geosciences (IBG-3, Agrosphere), Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich 52425, Germany
Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems, Geoverbund ABC/J, Jülich 52428, Germany
INRAE Centre de Recherche PACA, US 1116 AGROCLIM, Avignon 84914, France
Alexandre Belleflamme
Institute for Bio- and Geosciences (IBG-3, Agrosphere), Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich 52425, Germany
Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems, Geoverbund ABC/J, Jülich 52428, Germany
Ju-Yu Chen
Institute for Geosciences, Department of Meteorology, Universität Bonn, Bonn 53121, Germany
Silke Trömel
Institute for Geosciences, Department of Meteorology, Universität Bonn, Bonn 53121, Germany
Laboratory for Clouds and Precipitation Exploration, Geoverbund ABC/J, Bonn 53121, Germany
Stefan Kollet
Institute for Bio- and Geosciences (IBG-3, Agrosphere), Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich 52425, Germany
Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems, Geoverbund ABC/J, Jülich 52428, Germany
Related authors
No articles found.
Bjorn Stevens, Stefan Adami, Tariq Ali, Hartwig Anzt, Zafer Aslan, Sabine Attinger, Jaana Bäck, Johanna Baehr, Peter Bauer, Natacha Bernier, Bob Bishop, Hendryk Bockelmann, Sandrine Bony, Guy Brasseur, David N. Bresch, Sean Breyer, Gilbert Brunet, Pier Luigi Buttigieg, Junji Cao, Christelle Castet, Yafang Cheng, Ayantika Dey Choudhury, Deborah Coen, Susanne Crewell, Atish Dabholkar, Qing Dai, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Dale Durran, Ayoub El Gaidi, Charlie Ewen, Eleftheria Exarchou, Veronika Eyring, Florencia Falkinhoff, David Farrell, Piers M. Forster, Ariane Frassoni, Claudia Frauen, Oliver Fuhrer, Shahzad Gani, Edwin Gerber, Debra Goldfarb, Jens Grieger, Nicolas Gruber, Wilco Hazeleger, Rolf Herken, Chris Hewitt, Torsten Hoefler, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Daniela Jacob, Alexandra Jahn, Christian Jakob, Thomas Jung, Christopher Kadow, In-Sik Kang, Sarah Kang, Karthik Kashinath, Katharina Kleinen-von Königslöw, Daniel Klocke, Uta Kloenne, Milan Klöwer, Chihiro Kodama, Stefan Kollet, Tobias Kölling, Jenni Kontkanen, Steve Kopp, Michal Koran, Markku Kulmala, Hanna Lappalainen, Fakhria Latifi, Bryan Lawrence, June Yi Lee, Quentin Lejeun, Christian Lessig, Chao Li, Thomas Lippert, Jürg Luterbacher, Pekka Manninen, Jochem Marotzke, Satoshi Matsouoka, Charlotte Merchant, Peter Messmer, Gero Michel, Kristel Michielsen, Tomoki Miyakawa, Jens Müller, Ramsha Munir, Sandeep Narayanasetti, Ousmane Ndiaye, Carlos Nobre, Achim Oberg, Riko Oki, Tuba Özkan-Haller, Tim Palmer, Stan Posey, Andreas Prein, Odessa Primus, Mike Pritchard, Julie Pullen, Dian Putrasahan, Johannes Quaas, Krishnan Raghavan, Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, Markus Rapp, Florian Rauser, Markus Reichstein, Aromar Revi, Sonakshi Saluja, Masaki Satoh, Vera Schemann, Sebastian Schemm, Christina Schnadt Poberaj, Thomas Schulthess, Cath Senior, Jagadish Shukla, Manmeet Singh, Julia Slingo, Adam Sobel, Silvina Solman, Jenna Spitzer, Philip Stier, Thomas Stocker, Sarah Strock, Hang Su, Petteri Taalas, John Taylor, Susann Tegtmeier, Georg Teutsch, Adrian Tompkins, Uwe Ulbrich, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Chien-Ming Wu, Hao Xu, Najibullah Zaki, Laure Zanna, Tianjun Zhou, and Florian Ziemen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2113–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines is proposed as an international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.
Liubov Poshyvailo-Strube, Niklas Wagner, Klaus Goergen, Carina Furusho-Percot, Carl Hartick, and Stefan Kollet
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 167–189, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-167-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-167-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Groundwater (GW) representation is simplified in most regional climate models. Here, we introduce a unique Terrestrial Systems Modeling Platform (TSMP) dataset with an explicit representation of GW, in the context of dynamical downscaling of GCMs for climate change studies. We compare the heat events statistics of TSMP and the CORDEX ensemble. Our results show that TSMP systematically simulates fewer heat waves, and they are shorter and less intense.
Bamidele Joseph Oloruntoba, Stefan Kollet, Carsten Montzka, Harry Vereecken, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3132, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3132, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses simulations to understand how the soil information across Africa affects the water balance, using 4 soil databases and 3 different rainfall datasets. Results show that the soil information impacts water balance estimates, especially with a higher rate of rainfall.
Lucas Reimann, Clemens Simmer, and Silke Trömel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14219–14237, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14219-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14219-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Polarimetric radar observations were assimilated for the first time in a convective-scale numerical weather prediction system in Germany and their impact on short-term precipitation forecasts was evaluated. The assimilation was performed using microphysical retrievals of liquid and ice water content and yielded slightly improved deterministic 9 h precipitation forecasts for three intense summer precipitation cases with respect to the assimilation of radar reflectivity alone.
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1460, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Europe is regularly affected by compound events and natural hazards that occur simultaneously or with a temporal lag and are connected with disproportional impacts. Within the interdisciplinary project climXtreme (https://climxtreme.net/) we investigate the interplay of these events, their characteristics and changes, intensity, frequency and uncertainties in the past, present and future, as well as the associated impacts on different socio-economic sectors in Germany and Central Europe.
Zbigniew P. Piotrowski, Jaro Hokkanen, Daniel Caviedes-Voullieme, Olaf Stein, and Stefan Kollet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1079, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1079, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
The computer programs capable of simulation of Earth system components evolve, adapting new fundamental science concepts and more observational data on more and more powerful computer hardware. Adaptation of a large scientific program to a new type of hardware is costly. In this work we propose cheap and simple but effective strategy that enable computation using graphic processing units, based on automated program code modification. This results in better resolution and/or longer predictions.
Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Joni-Pekka Pietikaeinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1463, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1463, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
With a team of 20 authors from different countries, we tried to compile the impacts of drought and heat on European forests in the period 2018–2022. This is a research approach that transcends subject and country borders.
Tobias Tesch, Stefan Kollet, and Jochen Garcke
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2149–2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2149-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2149-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A recent statistical approach for studying relations in the Earth system is to train deep learning (DL) models to predict Earth system variables given one or several others and use interpretable DL to analyze the relations learned by the models. Here, we propose to combine the approach with a theorem from causality research to ensure that the deep learning model learns causal rather than spurious relations. As an example, we apply the method to study soil-moisture–precipitation coupling.
Armin Blanke, Andrew J. Heymsfield, Manuel Moser, and Silke Trömel
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 2089–2106, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2089-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2089-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present an evaluation of current retrieval techniques in the ice phase applied to polarimetric radar measurements with collocated in situ observations of aircraft conducted over the Olympic Mountains, Washington State, during winter 2015. Radar estimates of ice properties agreed most with aircraft observations in regions with pronounced radar signatures, but uncertainties were identified that indicate issues of some retrievals, particularly in warmer temperature regimes.
Bibi S. Naz, Wendy Sharples, Yueling Ma, Klaus Goergen, and Stefan Kollet
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1617–1639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1617-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1617-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is challenging to apply a high-resolution integrated land surface and groundwater model over large spatial scales. In this paper, we demonstrate the application of such a model over a pan-European domain at 3 km resolution and perform an extensive evaluation of simulated water states and fluxes by comparing with in situ and satellite data. This study can serve as a benchmark and baseline for future studies of climate change impact projections and for hydrological forecasting.
Prabhakar Shrestha, Silke Trömel, Raquel Evaristo, and Clemens Simmer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7593–7618, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7593-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7593-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The study makes use of ensemble numerical simulations with forward operator to evaluate the simulated cloud and precipitation processes with radar observations. While comparing model data with radar has its own challenges due to errors in the forward operator and processed radar measurements, the model was generally found to underestimate the high reflectivity, width/magnitude (value) of ZDR columns and high precipitation.
Prabhakar Shrestha, Jana Mendrok, Velibor Pejcic, Silke Trömel, Ulrich Blahak, and Jacob T. Carlin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 291–313, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-291-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-291-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The article focuses on the exploitation of radar polarimetry for model evaluation of stratiform precipitation. The model exhibited a low bias in simulated polarimetric moments at lower levels above the melting layer where snow was found to dominate. This necessitates further research into the missing microphysical processes in these lower levels (e.g. fragmentation due to ice–ice collisions) and use of more reliable snow-scattering models in the forward operator to draw valid conclusions.
Silke Trömel, Clemens Simmer, Ulrich Blahak, Armin Blanke, Sabine Doktorowski, Florian Ewald, Michael Frech, Mathias Gergely, Martin Hagen, Tijana Janjic, Heike Kalesse-Los, Stefan Kneifel, Christoph Knote, Jana Mendrok, Manuel Moser, Gregor Köcher, Kai Mühlbauer, Alexander Myagkov, Velibor Pejcic, Patric Seifert, Prabhakar Shrestha, Audrey Teisseire, Leonie von Terzi, Eleni Tetoni, Teresa Vogl, Christiane Voigt, Yuefei Zeng, Tobias Zinner, and Johannes Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17291–17314, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17291-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17291-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The article introduces the ACP readership to ongoing research in Germany on cloud- and precipitation-related process information inherent in polarimetric radar measurements, outlines pathways to inform atmospheric models with radar-based information, and points to remaining challenges towards an improved fusion of radar polarimetry and atmospheric modelling.
Bernd Schalge, Gabriele Baroni, Barbara Haese, Daniel Erdal, Gernot Geppert, Pablo Saavedra, Vincent Haefliger, Harry Vereecken, Sabine Attinger, Harald Kunstmann, Olaf A. Cirpka, Felix Ament, Stefan Kollet, Insa Neuweiler, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, and Clemens Simmer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4437–4464, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4437-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4437-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, a 9-year simulation of complete model output of a coupled atmosphere–land-surface–subsurface model on the catchment scale is discussed. We used the Neckar catchment in SW Germany as the basis of this simulation. Since the dataset includes the full model output, it is not only possible to investigate model behavior and interactions between the component models but also use it as a virtual truth for comparison of, for example, data assimilation experiments.
Yueling Ma, Carsten Montzka, Bagher Bayat, and Stefan Kollet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3555–3575, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3555-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3555-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study utilized spatiotemporally continuous precipitation anomaly (pra) and water table depth anomaly (wtda) data from integrated hydrologic simulation results over Europe in combination with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to capture the time-varying and time-lagged relationship between pra and wtda in order to obtain reliable models to estimate wtda at the individual pixel level.
Benjamin N. O. Kuffour, Nicholas B. Engdahl, Carol S. Woodward, Laura E. Condon, Stefan Kollet, and Reed M. Maxwell
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1373–1397, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1373-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1373-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Integrated hydrologic models (IHMs) were developed in order to allow for more accurate simulations of real-world ecohydrologic conditions. Many IHMs exist, and the literature can be dense, so it is often difficult to understand what a specific model can and cannot do. We provide a review of the current core capabilities, solution techniques, communication structure with other models, some limitations, and potential future improvements of one such open-source integrated model called ParFlow.
José Dias Neto, Stefan Kneifel, Davide Ori, Silke Trömel, Jan Handwerker, Birger Bohn, Normen Hermes, Kai Mühlbauer, Martin Lenefer, and Clemens Simmer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 845–863, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-845-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-845-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study describes a 2-month dataset of ground-based, vertically pointing triple-frequency cloud radar observations recorded during the winter season 2015/2016 in Jülich, Germany. Intensive quality control has been applied to the unique long-term dataset, which allows the multifrequency signatures of ice and snow particles to be statistically analyzed for the first time. The analysis includes, for example, aggregation and its dependence on cloud temperature, riming, and onset of melting.
Bibi S. Naz, Wolfgang Kurtz, Carsten Montzka, Wendy Sharples, Klaus Goergen, Jessica Keune, Huilin Gao, Anne Springer, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, and Stefan Kollet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 277–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-277-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-277-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the value of assimilating coarse-resolution remotely sensed soil moisture data into high-resolution land surface models for improving soil moisture and runoff modeling. The soil moisture estimates in this study, with complete spatio-temporal coverage and improved spatial resolution from the assimilation, offer a new reanalysis product for the monitoring of surface soil water content and other hydrological fluxes at 3 km resolution over Europe.
Wendy Sharples, Ilya Zhukov, Markus Geimer, Klaus Goergen, Sebastian Luehrs, Thomas Breuer, Bibi Naz, Ketan Kulkarni, Slavko Brdar, and Stefan Kollet
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2875–2895, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2875-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2875-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Next-generation geoscientific models are based on complex model implementations and workflows. Next-generation HPC systems require new programming paradigms and code optimization. In order to meet the challenge of running complex simulations on new massively parallel HPC systems, we developed a run control framework that facilitates code portability, code profiling, and provenance tracking to reduce both the duration and the cost of code migration and development, while ensuring reproducibility.
Andreas Macke, Patric Seifert, Holger Baars, Christian Barthlott, Christoph Beekmans, Andreas Behrendt, Birger Bohn, Matthias Brueck, Johannes Bühl, Susanne Crewell, Thomas Damian, Hartwig Deneke, Sebastian Düsing, Andreas Foth, Paolo Di Girolamo, Eva Hammann, Rieke Heinze, Anne Hirsikko, John Kalisch, Norbert Kalthoff, Stefan Kinne, Martin Kohler, Ulrich Löhnert, Bomidi Lakshmi Madhavan, Vera Maurer, Shravan Kumar Muppa, Jan Schween, Ilya Serikov, Holger Siebert, Clemens Simmer, Florian Späth, Sandra Steinke, Katja Träumner, Silke Trömel, Birgit Wehner, Andreas Wieser, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Xinxin Xie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4887–4914, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4887-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4887-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This article provides an overview of the instrumental setup and the main results obtained during the two HD(CP)2 Observational Prototype Experiments HOPE-Jülich and HOPE-Melpitz conducted in Germany in April–May and Sept 2013, respectively. Goal of the field experiments was to provide high-resolution observational datasets for both, improving the understaning of boundary layer and cloud processes, as well as for the evaluation of the new ICON model that is run at 156 m horizontal resolution.
Bernd Schalge, Jehan Rihani, Gabriele Baroni, Daniel Erdal, Gernot Geppert, Vincent Haefliger, Barbara Haese, Pablo Saavedra, Insa Neuweiler, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, Felix Ament, Sabine Attinger, Olaf A. Cirpka, Stefan Kollet, Harald Kunstmann, Harry Vereecken, and Clemens Simmer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-557, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-557, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
In this work we show how we used a coupled atmosphere-land surface-subsurface model at highest possible resolution to create a testbed for data assimilation. The model was able to capture all important processes and interactions between the compartments as well as showing realistic statistical behavior. This proves that using a model as a virtual truth is possible and it will enable us to develop data assimilation methods where states and parameters are updated across compartment.
Stefan J. Kollet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2801–2809, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2801-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2801-2016, 2016
Xinxin Xie, Raquel Evaristo, Clemens Simmer, Jan Handwerker, and Silke Trömel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7105–7116, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7105-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7105-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides a first analysis of rainfall observations and related microphysical processes during the HOPE campaign, which will benefit future studies on the evaluation and improvement of climate models within the HD(CP)2 framework. The results conveyed in this study confirm that polarimetric radars have the capability to validate weather and climate models with respect to rainfall estimation and the ongoing microphysical processes.
Wolfgang Kurtz, Guowei He, Stefan J. Kollet, Reed M. Maxwell, Harry Vereecken, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1341–1360, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1341-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1341-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the development of a modular data assimilation (DA) system for the integrated Earth system model TerrSysMP with the help of the PDAF data assimilation library.
Currently, pressure and soil moisture data can be used to update model states and parameters in the subsurface compartment of TerrSysMP.
Results from an idealized twin experiment show that the developed DA system provides a good parallel performance and is also applicable for high-resolution modelling problems.
P. Shrestha, M. Sulis, C. Simmer, and S. Kollet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4317–4326, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4317-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4317-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This study highlights the grid resolution dependence of energy and water balance of the 3-D physically based integrated surface-groundwater model. The non-local controls of soil moisture were found to be highly grid resolution dependent, but the local vegetation control strongly modulates the scaling behavior of surface energy fluxes. For coupled runs, variability in patterns of surface fluxes due to this scale dependence can affect the simulated atmospheric boundary layer and local circulation.
X. Han, X. Li, G. He, P. Kumbhar, C. Montzka, S. Kollet, T. Miyoshi, R. Rosolem, Y. Zhang, H. Vereecken, and H.-J. H. Franssen
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-8-7395-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-8-7395-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
DasPy is a ready to use open source parallel multivariate land data assimilation framework with joint state and parameter estimation using Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. The Community Land Model (4.5) was integrated as model operator. The Community Microwave Emission Modelling platform, COsmic-ray Soil Moisture Interaction Code and the Two-Source Formulation were integrated as observation operators for the multivariate assimilation of soil moisture and soil temperature, respectively.
R. M. Maxwell, L. E. Condon, and S. J. Kollet
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 923–937, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-923-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-923-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A model that simulates groundwater and surface water flow has been developed for the major river basins of the continental United States. Fundamental data sets provide input to the model resulting in a natural organization of stream networks and groundwater flow that is compared to observations of surface water and groundwater. Model results show relationships between flow and area that are moderated by aridity and represent an important step toward integrated hydrological prediction.
A. Belleflamme, X. Fettweis, and M. Erpicum
The Cryosphere, 9, 53–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-53-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-53-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The 2007-2012 summertime circulation anomaly over the Arctic region (i.e. more high pressure systems over the Beaufort Sea, the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and Greenland) is put in a historical perspective. While the 2007-2012 anomaly seems to be exceptional, similar circulation conditions have occurred since 1871, on the basis of five reanalyses (ERA-Interim, ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR, ERA-20C, 20CRv2). The attribution of this anomaly (natural variability or global warming) remains debatable.
F. Gasper, K. Goergen, P. Shrestha, M. Sulis, J. Rihani, M. Geimer, and S. Kollet
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2531–2543, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2531-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2531-2014, 2014
X. Fettweis, E. Hanna, C. Lang, A. Belleflamme, M. Erpicum, and H. Gallée
The Cryosphere, 7, 241–248, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-241-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-241-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Hydrological Hazards
Precursors and pathways: dynamically informed extreme event forecasting demonstrated on the historic Emilia-Romagna 2023 flood
Demonstrating the use of UNSEEN climate data for hydrological applications: case studies for extreme floods and droughts in England
Exploring the use of seasonal forecasts to adapt flood insurance premiums
Are 2D shallow-water solvers fast enough for early flood warning? A comparative assessment on the 2021 Ahr valley flood event
Water depth estimate and flood extent enhancement for satellite-based inundation maps
Probabilistic flood inundation mapping through copula Bayesian multi-modeling of precipitation products
Flood occurrence and impact models for socioeconomic applications over Canada and the United States
Model-based assessment of climate change impact on inland flood risk at the German North Sea coast caused by compounding storm tide and precipitation events
An improved dynamic bidirectional coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic model for efficient flood inundation prediction
Quantifying hazard resilience by modeling infrastructure recovery as a resource-constrained project scheduling problem
Hydrometeorological controls of and social response to the 22 October 2019 catastrophic flash flood in Catalonia, north-eastern Spain
A downward-counterfactual analysis of flash floods in Germany
Hyper-resolution flood hazard mapping at the national scale
Compound droughts under climate change in Switzerland
Brief communication: SWM – stochastic weather model for precipitation-related hazard assessments using ERA5-Land data
Spatiotemporal variability of flash floods and their human impacts in the Czech Republic during the 2001–2023 period
Text mining uncovers the unique dynamics of socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 multi-year drought in Germany
The value of multi-source data for improved flood damage modelling with explicit input data uncertainty treatment: INSYDE 2.0
A multivariate statistical framework for mixed populations in compound flood analysis
Risk of compound flooding substantially increases in the future Mekong River delta
Limited effect of the confluence angle and tributary gradient on Alpine confluence morphodynamics under intense sediment loads
Coupling WRF with HEC-HMS and WRF-Hydro for flood forecasting in typical mountainous catchments of northern China
Does a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of Mediterranean floods?
Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines
Flash flood detection via copula-based intensity–duration–frequency curves: evidence from Jamaica
Algorithmically Detected Rain-on-Snow Flood Events in Different Climate Datasets: A Case Study of the Susquehanna River Basin
Seasonal forecasting of local-scale soil moisture droughts with Global BROOK90: a case study of the European drought of 2018
How to mitigate flood events similar to the 1979 catastrophic floods in the lower Tagus
Review article: Drought as a continuum: memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems
Assessing LISFLOOD-FP with the next-generation digital elevation model FABDEM using household survey and remote sensing data in the Central Highlands of Vietnam
CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment): a new model for geo-hydrological hazard assessment at the basin scale
The cascading effect of wildfires on flood risk: a study case in Ebro River basin Spain
Current and future rainfall-driven flood risk from hurricanes in Puerto Rico under 1.5 and 2 °C climate change
Modelling hazards impacting the flow regime in the Hranice Karst due to the proposed Skalička Dam
Using integrated hydrological–hydraulic modelling and global data sources to analyse the February 2023 floods in the Umbeluzi Catchment (Mozambique)
Impact-based flood forecasting in the Greater Horn of Africa
Floods in the Pyrenees: A global view through a regional database
Brief communication: A first hydrological investigation of extreme August 2023 floods in Slovenia, Europe
Multivariate regression trees as an “explainable machine learning” approach to explore relationships between hydroclimatic characteristics and agricultural and hydrological drought severity: case of study Cesar River basin
Review article: Towards improved drought prediction in the Mediterranean region – modeling approaches and future directions
Mind the Gap: Misalignment Between Drought Monitoring and Community Realities
Assessing typhoon-induced compound flood drivers: a case study in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Assessing the ability of a new seamless short-range ensemble rainfall product to anticipate flash floods in the French Mediterranean area
Sentinel-1-based analysis of the severe flood over Pakistan 2022
Sensitivity analysis of erosion on the landward slope of an earthen flood defense located in southern France submitted to wave overtopping
Transferability of machine learning-based modeling frameworks across flood events for hindcasting maximum river flood depths in coastal watersheds
Better prepared but less resilient: the paradoxical impact of frequent flood experience on adaptive behavior and resilience
Assessing the spatial spread–skill of ensemble flood maps with remote-sensing observations
An integrated modeling approach to evaluate the impacts of nature-based solutions of flood mitigation across a small watershed in the southeast United States
Indicator-to-impact links to help improve agricultural drought preparedness in Thailand
Joshua Dorrington, Marta Wenta, Federico Grazzini, Linus Magnusson, Frederic Vitart, and Christian M. Grams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2995–3012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall is the leading weather-related source of damages in Europe, but it is still difficult to predict on long timescales. A recent example of this was the devastating floods in the Italian region of Emiglia Romagna in May 2023. We present perspectives based on large-scale dynamical information that allows us to better understand and predict such events.
Alison L. Kay, Nick Dunstone, Gillian Kay, Victoria A. Bell, and Jamie Hannaford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2953–2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological hazards affect people and ecosystems, but extremes are not fully understood due to limited observations. A large climate ensemble and simple hydrological model are used to assess unprecedented but plausible floods and droughts. The chain gives extreme flows outside the observed range: summer 2022 ~ 28 % lower and autumn 2023 ~ 42 % higher. Spatial dependence and temporal persistence are analysed. Planning for such events could help water supply resilience and flood risk management.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Jeroen Aerts, Max Tesselaar, Wouter Botzen, Heidi Kreibich, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2923–2937, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explored how seasonal flood forecasts could enhance insurance premium accuracy. Insurers traditionally rely on historical data, yet climate fluctuations influence flood risk. We employed a method that predicts seasonal floods to adjust premiums accordingly. Our findings showed significant year-to-year variations in flood risk and premiums, underscoring the importance of adaptability. Despite limitations, this research aids insurers in preparing for evolving risks.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Heiko Apel, and Daniel Caviedes-Voullième
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2857–2874, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Early warning is essential to minimise the impact of flash floods. We explore the use of highly detailed flood models to simulate the 2021 flood event in the lower Ahr valley (Germany). Using very high-resolution models resolving individual streets and buildings, we produce detailed, quantitative, and actionable information for early flood warning systems. Using state-of-the-art computational technology, these models can guarantee very fast forecasts which allow for sufficient time to respond.
Andrea Betterle and Peter Salamon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2817–2836, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study proposes a new framework, named FLEXTH, to estimate flood water depth and improve satellite-based flood monitoring using topographical data. FLEXTH is readily available as a computer code, offering a practical and scalable solution for estimating flood depth quickly and systematically over large areas. The methodology can reduce the impacts of floods and enhance emergency response efforts, particularly where resources are limited.
Francisco Javier Gomez, Keighobad Jafarzadegan, Hamed Moftakhari, and Hamid Moradkhani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2647–2665, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2647-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2647-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study utilizes the global copula Bayesian model averaging technique for accurate and reliable flood modeling, especially in coastal regions. By integrating multiple precipitation datasets within this framework, we can effectively address sources of error in each dataset, leading to the generation of probabilistic flood maps. The creation of these probabilistic maps is essential for disaster preparedness and mitigation in densely populated areas susceptible to extreme weather events.
Manuel Grenier, Mathieu Boudreault, David A. Carozza, Jérémie Boudreault, and Sébastien Raymond
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2577–2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling floods at the street level for large countries like Canada and the United States is difficult and very costly. However, many applications do not necessarily require that level of detail. As a result, we present a flood modelling framework built with artificial intelligence for socioeconomic studies like trend and scenarios analyses. We find for example that an increase of 10 % in average precipitation yields an increase in displaced population of 18 % in Canada and 14 % in the US.
Helge Bormann, Jenny Kebschull, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Inland flooding is threatening coastal lowlands. If rainfall and storm surges coincide, the risk of inland flooding increases. We examine how such compound events are influenced by climate change. Data analysis and model-based scenario analysis show that climate change induces an increasing frequency and intensity of compounding precipitation and storm tide events along the North Sea coast. Overload of inland drainage systems will also increase if no timely adaptation measures are taken.
Yanxia Shen, Zhenduo Zhu, Qi Zhou, and Chunbo Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2315–2330, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present an improved Multigrid Dynamical Bidirectional Coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic Model (IM-DBCM) with two major improvements: (1) automated non-uniform mesh generation based on the D-infinity algorithm was implemented to identify flood-prone areas where high-resolution inundation conditions are needed, and (2) ghost cells and bilinear interpolation were implemented to improve numerical accuracy in interpolating variables between the coarse and fine grids. The improved model was reliable.
Taylor Glen Johnson, Jorge Leandro, and Divine Kwaku Ahadzie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2285–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Reliance on infrastructure creates vulnerabilities to disruptions caused by natural hazards. To assess the impacts of natural hazards on the performance of infrastructure, we present a framework for quantifying resilience and develop a model of recovery based upon an application of project scheduling under resource constraints. The resilience framework and recovery model were applied in a case study to assess the resilience of building infrastructure to flooding hazards in Accra, Ghana.
Arnau Amengual, Romu Romero, María Carmen Llasat, Alejandro Hermoso, and Montserrat Llasat-Botija
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2215–2242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
On 22 October 2019, the Francolí River basin experienced a heavy precipitation event, resulting in a catastrophic flash flood. Few studies comprehensively address both the physical and human dimensions and their interrelations during extreme flash flooding. This research takes a step forward towards filling this gap in knowledge by examining the alignment among all these factors.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2147–2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To identify flash flood potential in Germany, we shifted the most extreme rainfall events from the last 22 years systematically across Germany and simulated the consequent runoff reaction. Our results show that almost all areas in Germany have not seen the worst-case scenario of flood peaks within the last 22 years. With a slight spatial change of historical rainfall events, flood peaks of a factor of 2 or more would be achieved for most areas. The results can aid disaster risk management.
Günter Blöschl, Andreas Buttinger-Kreuzhuber, Daniel Cornel, Julia Eisl, Michael Hofer, Markus Hollaus, Zsolt Horváth, Jürgen Komma, Artem Konev, Juraj Parajka, Norbert Pfeifer, Andreas Reithofer, José Salinas, Peter Valent, Roman Výleta, Jürgen Waser, Michael H. Wimmer, and Heinz Stiefelmeyer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2071–2091, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A methodology of regional flood hazard mapping is proposed, based on data in Austria, which combines automatic methods with manual interventions to maximise efficiency and to obtain estimation accuracy similar to that of local studies. Flood discharge records from 781 stations are used to estimate flood hazard patterns of a given return period at a resolution of 2 m over a total stream length of 38 000 km. The hazard maps are used for civil protection, risk awareness and insurance purposes.
Christoph Nathanael von Matt, Regula Muelchi, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1975–2001, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The simultaneous occurrence of meteorological (precipitation), agricultural (soil moisture), and hydrological (streamflow) drought can lead to augmented impacts. By analysing drought indices derived from the newest climate scenarios for Switzerland (CH2018, Hydro-CH2018), we show that with climate change the concurrence of all drought types will increase in all studied regions of Switzerland. Our results stress the benefits of and need for both mitigation and adaptation measures at early stages.
Melody Gwyneth Whitehead and Mark Stephen Bebbington
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1929–1935, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation-driven hazards including floods, landslides, and lahars can be catastrophic and difficult to forecast due to high uncertainty around future weather patterns. This work presents a stochastic weather model that produces statistically similar (realistic) rainfall over long time periods at minimal computational cost. These data provide much-needed inputs for hazard simulations to support long-term, time and spatially varying risk assessments.
Rudolf Brázdil, Dominika Faturová, Monika Šulc Michalková, Jan Řehoř, Martin Caletka, and Pavel Zahradníček
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1467, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1467, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flash floods belong to natural hazards that can be enhanced in frequency, intensity and impacts during the recent climate change. The paper present a complex analysis of spatiotemporal variability and human impacts (including material damage and fatalities) of flash floods in the Czech Republic for the 2001–2023 period. The analysis shows generally not any statistically significant trends in the characteristics analysed.
Jan Sodoge, Christian Kuhlicke, Miguel D. Mahecha, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1757–1777, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We delved into the socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 drought in Germany. We derived a dataset covering the impacts of droughts in Germany between 2000 and 2022 on sectors such as agriculture and forestry based on newspaper articles. Notably, our study illustrated that the longer drought had a wider reach and more varied effects. We show that dealing with longer droughts requires different plans compared to shorter ones, and it is crucial to be ready for the challenges they bring.
Mario Di Bacco, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1681–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1681-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
INSYDE 2.0 is a tool for modelling flood damage to residential buildings. By incorporating ultra-detailed survey and desk-based data, it improves the reliability and informativeness of damage assessments while addressing input data uncertainties.
Pravin Maduwantha, Thomas Wahl, Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Robert Andrew Jane, James F. Booth, Hanbeen Kim, and Gabriele Villarini
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1122, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Most of the studies on compound flooding assume events that generate extreme rainfall and coastal water level responses originate from a single population, in reality, they originate from multiple populations each with unique statistical characteristics. This paper presents a flexible statistical framework for assessing the compound flood potential from multiple flood drivers that explicitly accounts for different event types.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Tran Ba, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-949, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-949, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We look at how compound flooding from the combination of river flooding and storm tide (storm surge plus astronomical tide) may be changing over time due to climate change, with a case study of the Mekong River delta. We found that future compound flooding has potential to flood the region more extensively and be longer lasting than compound floods today. This is useful to know because it means that managers of deltas such as the Mekong can assess options for improving existing flood defences.
Théo St. Pierre Ostrander, Thomé Kraus, Bruno Mazzorana, Johannes Holzner, Andrea Andreoli, Francesco Comiti, and Bernhard Gems
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1607–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1607-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1607-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain river confluences are hazardous during localized flooding events. A physical model was used to determine the dominant controls over mountain confluences. Contrary to lowland confluences, in mountain regions, the channel discharges and (to a lesser degree) the tributary sediment concentration control morphological patterns. Applying conclusions drawn from lowland confluences could misrepresent depositional and erosional patterns and the related flood hazard at mountain river confluences.
Sheik Umar Jam-Jalloh, Jia Liu, Yicheng Wang, and Yuchen Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-20, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-20, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Explore our paper on improving flood prediction using advanced weather models. We coupled the WRF model with WRF-Hydro and HEC-HMS to enhance accuracy. Discover how our findings contribute to adaptive atmospheric-hydrologic systems for effective flood forecasting.
Nils Poncet, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Yves Tramblay, Guillaume Thirel, Humberto Vergara, Jonathan Gourley, and Antoinette Alias
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1163–1183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) are now available to better simulate rainstorm events leading to flash floods. In this study, two hydrological models are compared to simulate floods in a Mediterranean basin, showing a better ability of the CPM to reproduce flood peaks compared to coarser-resolution climate models. Future projections are also different, with a projected increase for the most severe floods and a potential decrease for the most frequent events.
Wilson C. H. Chan, Nigel W. Arnell, Geoff Darch, Katie Facer-Childs, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Maliko Tanguy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1065–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The most recent drought in the UK was declared in summer 2022. We pooled a large sample of plausible winters from seasonal hindcasts and grouped them into four clusters based on their atmospheric circulation configurations. Drought storylines representative of what the drought could have looked like if winter 2022/23 resembled each winter circulation storyline were created to explore counterfactuals of how bad the 2022 drought could have been over winter 2022/23 and beyond.
Dino Collalti, Nekeisha Spencer, and Eric Strobl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 873–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk of extreme rainfall events causing floods is likely increasing with climate change. Flash floods, which follow immediately after extreme rainfall, are particularly difficult to forecast and assess. We develop a decision rule for flash flood classification with data on all incidents between 2001 and 2018 in Jamaica with the statistical copula method. This decision rule tells us for any rainfall event of a certain duration how intense it has to be to likely trigger a flash flood.
Colin M. Zarzycki, Benjamin D. Ascher, Alan M. Rhoades, and Rachel R. McCrary
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3094, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3094, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed an automated workflow to detect rain-on-snow events, which cause flooding in the northeastern U.S., in climate data. Analyzing the Susquehanna River Basin, this technique identified known events affecting river flow. Comparing four gridded datasets revealed variations in event frequency and severity, driven by different snowmelt and runoff estimates. This highlights the need for accurate climate data in flood management and risk prediction for these compound extremes.
Ivan Vorobevskii, Thi Thanh Luong, and Rico Kronenberg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 681–697, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new version of a framework which allows us to model water balance components at any site on a local scale. Compared with the first version, the second incorporates new datasets used to set up and force the model. In particular, we highlight the ability of the framework to provide seasonal forecasts. This gives potential stakeholders (farmers, foresters, policymakers, etc.) the possibility to forecast, for example, soil moisture drought and thus apply the necessary measures.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Alexandre M. Ramos, José González-Cao, Orlando García-Feal, Cristina Catita, Moncho Gómez-Gesteira, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 609–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study focuses on an in-depth analysis of floods in the lower section of the Tagus River from a hydrodynamic perspective by means of the Iber+ numerical model and on the development of dam operating strategies to mitigate flood episodes using the exceptional floods of February 1979 as a benchmark. The results corroborate the model's capability to evaluate floods in the study area and confirm the effectiveness of the proposed strategies to reduce flood impact in the lower Tagus valley.
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-421, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-421, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a creeping phenomenon, but it is often still analysed and managed like an event without taking into consideration what happened before and after. In this paper we review the literature and discuss five cases, where drought, its impacts and responses develop differently over time. We look at the hydrological, ecological and social system and their connections. And we provide suggestions for further research and for monitoring, modelling and management.
Laurence Hawker, Jeffrey Neal, James Savage, Thomas Kirkpatrick, Rachel Lord, Yanos Zylberberg, Andre Groeger, Truong Dang Thuy, Sean Fox, Felix Agyemang, and Pham Khanh Nam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 539–566, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global flood model built using a new terrain data set and evaluated in the Central Highlands of Vietnam.
Andrea Abbate, Leonardo Mancusi, Francesco Apadula, Antonella Frigerio, Monica Papini, and Laura Longoni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 501–537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment) is a new physically based and spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model. The main novelties consist of reproducing rainfall-induced geo-hydrological hazards such as shallow landslide, debris flow and watershed erosion through a multi-hazard approach. CRHyME was written in Python, works at a high spatial and temporal resolution, and is a tool suitable for quantifying extreme rainfall consequences at the basin scale.
Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Matthijs Janssen, Mariana Madruga de Brito, and Maria del Pozo Garcia
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-153, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-153, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A conventional flood risk assessment only evaluates flood hazard in isolation without considering wildfires. This study, therefore, evaluates the cascading impact of wildfires on flood risk, considering both current and future conditions for the Ebro River basin in Spain. Results show that extreme climate change increases the risk of flooding, especially when considering the cascading impacts of wildfires, highlighting the importance of adopting a multi-hazard risk management approach.
Leanne Archer, Jeffrey Neal, Paul Bates, Emily Vosper, Dereka Carroll, Jeison Sosa, and Daniel Mitchell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 375–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We model hurricane-rainfall-driven flooding to assess how the number of people exposed to flooding changes in Puerto Rico under the 1.5 and 2 °C Paris Agreement goals. Our analysis suggests 8 %–10 % of the population is currently exposed to flooding on average every 5 years, increasing by 2 %–15 % and 1 %–20 % at 1.5 and 2 °C. This has implications for adaptation to more extreme flooding in Puerto Rico and demonstrates that 1.5 °C climate change carries a significant increase in risk.
Miroslav Spano and Jaromir Riha
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-21, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-21, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Our study examines how building the Skalička Dam near the Hranice Karst affects local groundwater. We used advanced modeling to analyze two dam layouts: lateral and through-flow reservoirs. Results show the through-flow variant significantly alters water levels and mineral water discharge, while the lateral layout has less impact.
Luis Cea, Manuel Álvarez, and Jerónimo Puertas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 225–243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mozambique is highly exposed to the impact of floods. To reduce flood damage, it is necessary to develop mitigation measures. Hydrological software is a very useful tool for that purpose, since it allows for a precise quantification of flood hazard in different scenarios. We present a methodology to quantify flood hazard in data-scarce regions, using freely available data and software, and we show its potential by analysing the flood event that took place in the Umbeluzi Basin in February 2023.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Francesco Dottori, Simone Gabellani, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Alessandro Masoero, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Nicola Testa, Eva Trasforini, Ahmed Amdihun, Jully Ouma, Luca Rossi, Yves Tramblay, Huan Wu, and Marco Massabò
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 199–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based flood forecasting system for the Greater Horn of Africa. It is based on hydrological simulations, inundation mapping, and estimation of population and assets exposed to upcoming river floods. The system supports duty officers in African institutions in the daily monitoring of hydro-meteorological disasters. A first evaluation shows the system performance for the catastrophic floods in the Nile River basin in summer 2020.
María Carmen Llasat, Montserrat Llasat-Botija, Erika Pardo, Raül Marcos-Matamoros, and Marc Lemus-Canovas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-206, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is leading in the Pyrenees Massif to a change in socioeconomic increasing their sensitivity to natural risks such as floods. However, until now, no systematic study like this one had been carried out that would allow evaluating the frequency, distribution and main meteorological features of these events on a massif scale. In 35 years there have been 181 flood events that have produced 154 fatalities.
Nejc Bezak, Panos Panagos, Leonidas Liakos, and Matjaž Mikoš
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3885–3893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme flooding occurred in Slovenia in August 2023. This brief communication examines the main causes, mechanisms and effects of this event. The flood disaster of August 2023 can be described as relatively extreme and was probably the most extreme flood event in Slovenia in recent decades. The economic damage was large and could amount to well over 5 % of Slovenia's annual gross domestic product; the event also claimed three lives.
Ana Paez-Trujilo, Jeffer Cañon, Beatriz Hernandez, Gerald Corzo, and Dimitri Solomatine
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3863–3883, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses a machine learning technique, the multivariate regression tree approach, to assess the hydroclimatic characteristics that govern agricultural and hydrological drought severity. The results show that the employed technique successfully identified the primary drivers of droughts and their critical thresholds. In addition, it provides relevant information to identify the areas most vulnerable to droughts and design strategies and interventions for drought management.
Bouchra Zellou, Nabil El Moçayd, and El Houcine Bergou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3543–3583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we underscore the critical importance of strengthening drought prediction capabilities in the Mediterranean region. We present an in-depth evaluation of current drought forecasting approaches, encompassing statistical, dynamical, and hybrid statistical–dynamical models, and highlight unexplored research opportunities. Additionally, we suggest viable directions to enhance drought prediction and early warning systems within the area.
Sarra Kchouk, Louise Cavalcante, Lieke A. Melsen, David W. Walker, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Rubens Gondim, Wouter J. Smolenaars, and Pieter R. van Oel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2726, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts impact water and people, yet monitoring often overlooks impacts on people. In Northeast Brazil, we assess official data against local experiences, finding data mismatches and blindspots. Mismatches occur due to the data's broad scope missing finer details. Blindspots arise from ignoring diverse community responses and vulnerabilities to droughts. We suggest enhanced monitoring by technical extension officers for both severe and mild droughts.
Francisco Rodrigues do Amaral, Nicolas Gratiot, Thierry Pellarin, and Tran Anh Tu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3379–3405, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3379-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3379-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose an in-depth analysis of typhoon-induced compound flood drivers in the megacity of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. We use in situ and satellite measurements throughout the event to form a holistic overview of its impact. No evidence of storm surge was found, and peak precipitation presents a 16 h time lag to peak river discharge, which evacuates only 1.5 % of available water. The astronomical tide controls the river level even during the extreme event, and it is the main urban flood driver.
Juliette Godet, Olivier Payrastre, Pierre Javelle, and François Bouttier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3355–3377, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article results from a master's research project which was part of a natural hazards programme developed by the French Ministry of Ecological Transition. The objective of this work was to investigate a possible way to improve the operational flash flood warning service by adding rainfall forecasts upstream of the forecasting chain. The results showed that the tested forecast product, which is new and experimental, has a real added value compared to other classical forecast products.
Florian Roth, Bernhard Bauer-Marschallinger, Mark Edwin Tupas, Christoph Reimer, Peter Salamon, and Wolfgang Wagner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3305–3317, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In August and September 2022, millions of people were impacted by a severe flood event in Pakistan. Since many roads and other infrastructure were destroyed, satellite data were the only way of providing large-scale information on the flood's impact. Based on the flood mapping algorithm developed at Technische Universität Wien (TU Wien), we mapped an area of 30 492 km2 that was flooded at least once during the study's time period. This affected area matches about the total area of Belgium.
Clément Houdard, Adrien Poupardin, Philippe Sergent, Abdelkrim Bennabi, and Jena Jeong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3111–3124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3111-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a system able to to predict, knowing the appropriate characteristics of the flood defense structure and sea state, the return periods of potentially dangerous events as well as a ranking of parameters by order of uncertainty.
The model is a combination of statistical and empirical methods that have been applied to a Mediterranean earthen dike. This shows that the most important characteristics of the dyke are its geometrical features, such as its height and slope angles.
Maryam Pakdehi, Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf, Behzad Nazari, and Eunsaem Cho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-152, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-152, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning (ML) models have growingly received attention for predicting flood events. However, there has been concerns about the transferability of these models (their capability in predicting out-of-sample events). Here, we showed that ML models can be transferable for hindcasting maximum river flood depths across major events (Hurricanes Ida, Isaias, Sandy, and Irene) in coastal watersheds when informed by the spatial distribution of pertinent features and underlying physical processes.
Lisa Köhler, Torsten Masson, Sabrina Köhler, and Christian Kuhlicke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2787–2806, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2787-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2787-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed the impact of flood experience on adaptive behavior and self-reported resilience. The outcomes draw a paradoxical picture: the most experienced people are the most adapted but the least resilient. We find evidence for non-linear relationships between the number of floods experienced and resilience. We contribute to existing knowledge by focusing specifically on the number of floods experienced and extending the rare scientific literature on the influence of experience on resilience.
Helen Hooker, Sarah L. Dance, David C. Mason, John Bevington, and Kay Shelton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2769–2785, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ensemble forecasts of flood inundation produce maps indicating the probability of flooding. A new approach is presented to evaluate the spatial performance of an ensemble flood map forecast by comparison against remotely observed flooding extents. This is important for understanding forecast uncertainties and improving flood forecasting systems.
Betina I. Guido, Ioana Popescu, Vidya Samadi, and Biswa Bhattacharya
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2663–2681, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2663-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We used an integrated model to evaluate the impacts of nature-based solutions (NBSs) on flood mitigation across the Little Pee Dee and Lumber River watershed, the Carolinas, US. This area is strongly affected by climatic disasters, which are expected to increase due to climate change and urbanization, so exploring an NBS approach is crucial for adapting to future alterations. Our research found that NBSs can have visible effects on the reduction in hurricane-driven flooding.
Maliko Tanguy, Michael Eastman, Eugene Magee, Lucy J. Barker, Thomas Chitson, Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit, Daniel Goodwin, Jamie Hannaford, Ian Holman, Liwa Pardthaisong, Simon Parry, Dolores Rey Vicario, and Supattra Visessri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2419–2441, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts in Thailand are becoming more severe due to climate change. Understanding the link between drought impacts on the ground and drought indicators used in drought monitoring systems can help increase a country's preparedness and resilience to drought. With a focus on agricultural droughts, we derive crop- and region-specific indicator-to-impact links that can form the basis of targeted mitigation actions and an improved drought monitoring and early warning system in Thailand.
Cited articles
Anagnostou, M. N., Kalogiros, J., Anagnostou, E. N., Tarolli, M.,
Papadopoulos, A., and Borga, M.: Performance evaluation of high-resolution
rainfall estimation by X-band dual-polarization radar for flash flood
applications in mountainous basins, J. Hydrol., 394, 4–16,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.06.026, 2010.
Anagnostou, M. N., Nikolopoulos, E. I., Kalogiros, J., Anagnostou, E. N.,
Marra, F., Mair, E., Bertoldi, G., Tappeiner, U., and Borga, M.: Advancing
Precipitation Estimation and Streamflow Simulations in Complex Terrain with
X-Band Dual-Polarization Radar Observations, Remote Sens., 10, 1258,
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10081258, 2018.
Anctil, F. and Ramos, M.-H.: Verification Metrics for Hydrological Ensemble
Forecasts, in: Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting, edited
by: Duan, Q., Pappenberger, F., Thielen, J., Wood, A., Cloke, H. L., and
Schaake, J. C., Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 1–30,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-40457-3_3-1, 2017.
Anquetin, S., Yates, E., Ducrocq, V., Samouillan, S., Chancibault, K., Davolio, S., Accadia, C., Casaioli, M., Mariani, S., Ficca, G., Gozzini, B., Pasi, F., Pasqui, M., Garcia, A., Martorell, M., Romero, R., and Chessa, P.: The 8 and 9 September 2002 flash flood event in France: a model intercomparison, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 5, 741–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-5-741-2005, 2005.
Asante, K. O., Artan, G. A., Pervez, M. S., Bandaragoda, C., and Verdin, J.
P.: Technical Manual for the Geospatial Stream Flow Model (GeoSFM),
Technical Manual for the Geospatial Stream Flow Model (GeoSFM), U.S.
Geological Survey, Open-File Report 2007-1441, https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20071441, 2008.
Berne, A. and Krajewski, W. F.: Radar for hydrology: Unfulfilled promise or
unrecognized potential?, Adv. Water Resour., 51, 357–366,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2012.05.005, 2013.
BMI: Bericht zur Hochwasserkatastrophe 2021: Katastrophenhilfe, Wiederaufbau
und Evaluierungsprozesse, Bundesministerium des Innern und für Heimat,
Berlin, Germany, https://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/downloads/DE/veroeffentlichungen/2022/abschlussbericht-hochwasserkatastrophe.pdf;jsessionid=98D3F1ADE38213E64E2F569C09B5F923.1_cid332?__blob=publicationFile&v=1
last access: 21 December 2022.
Borga, M., Boscolo, P., Zanon, F., and Sangati, M.: Hydrometeorological
Analysis of the 29 August 2003 Flash Flood in the Eastern Italian Alps, J.
Hydrometeorol., 8, 1049–1067, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM593.1, 2007.
Boushaki, F. I., Hsu, K.-L., Sorooshian, S., Park, G.-H., Mahani, S., and
Shi, W.: Bias Adjustment of Satellite Precipitation Estimation Using
Ground-Based Measurement: A Case Study Evaluation over the Southwestern
United States, J. Hydrometeorol., 10, 1231–1242,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JHM1099.1, 2009.
Braud, I., Roux, H., Anquetin, S., Maubourguet, M.-M., Manus, C., Viallet,
P., and Dartus, D.: The use of distributed hydrological models for the Gard
2002 flash flood event: Analysis of associated hydrological processes, J.
Hydrol., 394, 162–181, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.03.033, 2010.
Brigode, P., Oudin, L., and Perrin, C.: Hydrological model parameter
instability: A source of additional uncertainty in estimating the
hydrological impacts of climate change?, J. Hydrol., 476, 410–425,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.11.012, 2013.
Chen, H., Cifelli, R., and White, A.: Improving Operational Radar Rainfall
Estimates Using Profiler Observations Over Complex Terrain in Northern
California, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 58, 1821–1832,
https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2019.2949214, 2020.
Chen, J.-Y., Trömel, S., Ryzhkov, A., and Simmer, C.: Assessing the
Benefits of Specific Attenuation for Quantitative Precipitation Estimation
with a C-Band Radar Network, J. Hydrometeorol., 22, 2617–2631,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-20-0299.1, 2021.
Chen, J.-Y., Reinoso-Rondinel, R., Trömel, S., Simmer, C., and Ryzhkov,
A.: A radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation algorithm to
overcome the impact of vertical gradients of warm-rain precipitation: the
flood in western Germany on 14 July 2021, J. Hydrometeorol., online first, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-22-0111.1, 2022.
Cole, S. J. and Moore, R. J.: Distributed hydrological modelling using
weather radar in gauged and ungauged basins, Adv. Water Resour., 32,
1107–1120, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2009.01.006, 2009.
Coron, L., Thirel, G., Delaigue, O., Perrin, C., and Andréassian, V.:
The suite of lumped GR hydrological models in an R package, Environ. Modell.
Softw., 94, 166–171, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.05.002, 2017 (code available at: https://hydrogr.github.io/airGR/, last access: 9 January 2023).
Cunha, L. K., Smith, J. A., Krajewski, W. F., Baeck, M. L., and Seo, B.-C.:
NEXRAD NWS Polarimetric Precipitation Product Evaluation for IFloodS, J.
Hydrometeorol., 16, 1676–1699, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0148.1, 2015.
Dai, Q. and Han, D.: Exploration of discrepancy between radar and gauge
rainfall estimates driven by wind fields, Water Resour. Res., 50,
8571–8588, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015794, 2014.
Derin, Y., Anagnostou, E., Anagnostou, M., and Kalogiros, J.: Evaluation of
X-Band Dual-Polarization Radar-Rainfall Estimates from OLYMPEX, J.
Hydrometeorol., 20, 1941–1959, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-19-0097.1, 2019.
Deutsche Welle: German floods: Climate change made heavy rains in Europe more likely, https://www.dw.com/en/german-floods-climate-change/a-58959677 (last access: 21 December 2022), 2021.
Diederich, M., Ryzhkov, A., Simmer, C., Zhang, P., and Trömel, S.: Use
of Specific Attenuation for Rainfall Measurement at X-Band Radar
Wavelengths. Part I: Radar Calibration and Partial Beam Blockage Estimation,
J. Hydrometeorol., 16, 487–502, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0066.1, 2015a.
Diederich, M., Ryzhkov, A., Simmer, C., Zhang, P., and Trömel, S.: Use
of Specific Attenuation for Rainfall Measurement at X-Band Radar
Wavelengths. Part II: Rainfall Estimates and Comparison with Rain Gauges, J.
Hydrometeorol., 16, 503–516, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0067.1, 2015b.
Dottori, F., Szewczyk, W., Ciscar, J.-C., Zhao, F., Alfieri, L.,
Hirabayashi, Y., Bianchi, A., Mongelli, I., Frieler, K., Betts, R. A., and
Feyen, L.: Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with
anthropogenic warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 781–786,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0257-z, 2018.
Dougherty, E. and Rasmussen, K. L.: Changes in Future Flash Flood–Producing
Storms in the United States, J. Hydrometeorol., 21, 2221–2236,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-20-0014.1, 2020.
Dumont, M., Saadi, M., Oudin, L., Lachassagne, P., Nugraha, B., Fadillah, A., Bonjour, J.-L., Muhammad, A., Hendarmawan, Dörfliger, N., and Plagnes, V.: Assessing rainfall global products reliability for water resource management in a tropical volcanic mountainous catchment, J. Hydrol. Reg. Stud., 40, 101037, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101037, 2022.
Duscher, K., Günther, A., Richts, A., Clos, P., Philipp, U., and
Struckmeier, W.: The GIS layers of the “International Hydrogeological Map
of Europe 1:1,500,000” in a vector format, Hydrogeol. J., 23, 1867–1875,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-015-1296-4, 2015.
Edijatno, Nascimento, N. de O., Yang, X., Makhlouf, Z., and Michel, C.:
GR3J: a daily watershed model with three free parameters, Hydrolog. Sci. J.,
44, 263–277, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626669909492221, 1999.
Emmanuel, I., Payrastre, O., Andrieu, H., and Zuber, F.: A method for
assessing the influence of rainfall spatial variability on hydrograph
modeling. First case study in the Cevennes Region, southern France, J.
Hydrol., 555, 314–322, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.10.011, 2017.
Ficchì, A., Perrin, C., and Andréassian, V.: Hydrological modelling
at multiple sub-daily time steps: Model improvement via flux-matching, J.
Hydrol., 575, 1308–1327, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.05.084, 2019.
Fowler, H. J., Lenderink, G., Prein, A. F., Westra, S., Allan, R. P., Ban,
N., Barbero, R., Berg, P., Blenkinsop, S., Do, H. X., Guerreiro, S.,
Haerter, J. O., Kendon, E. J., Lewis, E., Schaer, C., Sharma, A., Villarini,
G., Wasko, C., and Zhang, X.: Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 2, 107–122, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-00128-6, 2021.
GDV: 2021 teuerstes Naturgefahrenjahr für die Versicherer, Gesamtverband
der Deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft (GDV), Berlin, Germany,
https://www.gdv.de/de/medien/aktuell/2021-teuerstes-naturgefahrenjahr-fuer-die-versicherer-74092
(last access: 21 December 2022), 2021 (in German).
Gourley, J. J., Giangrande, S. E., Hong, Y., Flamig, Z. L., Schuur, T., and
Vrugt, J. A.: Impacts of Polarimetric Radar Observations on Hydrologic
Simulation, J. Hydrometeorol., 11, 781–796, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JHM1218.1, 2010.
Gupta, H. V., Kling, H., Yilmaz, K. K., and Martinez, G. F.: Decomposition
of the mean squared error and NSE performance criteria: Implications for
improving hydrological modelling, J. Hydrol., 377, 80–91,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.003, 2009.
Hapuarachchi, H. A. P., Wang, Q. J., and Pagano, T. C.: A review of advances
in flash flood forecasting, Hydrol. Process., 25, 2771–2784,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8040, 2011.
Harrison, D. L., Driscoll, S. J., and Kitchen, M.: Improving precipitation
estimates from weather radar using quality control and correction techniques, Meteorol. Appl., 7, 135–144, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482700001468, 2000.
He, X., Koch, J., Zheng, C., Bøvith, T., and Jensen, K. H.: Comparison of
Simulated Spatial Patterns Using Rain Gauge and Polarimetric-Radar-Based
Precipitation Data in Catchment Hydrological Modeling, J. Hydrometeorol.,
19, 1273–1288, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0235.1, 2018.
Hengl, T., de Jesus, J. M., Heuvelink, G. B. M., Gonzalez, M. R., Kilibarda,
M., Blagotić, A., Shangguan, W., Wright, M. N., Geng, X.,
Bauer-Marschallinger, B., Guevara, M. A., Vargas, R., MacMillan, R. A.,
Batjes, N. H., Leenaars, J. G. B., Ribeiro, E., Wheeler, I., Mantel, S., and
Kempen, B.: SoilGrids250m: Global gridded soil information based on machine
learning, PLOS ONE, 12, e0169748, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0169748, 2017.
Huang, Y., Bárdossy, A., and Zhang, K.: Sensitivity of hydrological models to temporal and spatial resolutions of rainfall data, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2647–2663, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2647-2019, 2019.
Junghänel, T., Bissolli, P., Daßler, J., Fleckenstein, R., Imbery,
F., Janssen, W., Lengfeld, K., Leppelt, T., Rauthe, M., Rauthe-Schöch,
A., Rocek, M., Walawender, E., and Weigl, E.: Hydro-klimatologische
Einordnung der Stark- und Dauerniederschläge in Teilen Deutschlands im
Zusammenhang mit dem Tiefdruckgebiet “Bernd” vom 12. bis 19.
Juli 2021, Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Offenbach, Germany,
https://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/besondereereignisse/niederschlag/20210721_bericht_starkniederschlaege_tief_bernd.html (last access: 21 December 2022), 2021.
Kaspar, F., Müller-Westermeier, G., Penda, E., Mächel, H., Zimmermann, K., Kaiser-Weiss, A., and Deutschländer, T.: Monitoring of climate change in Germany – data, products and services of Germany's National Climate Data Centre, Adv. Sci. Res., 10, 99–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-10-99-2013, 2013.
Kendon, E. J., Roberts, N. M., Fowler, H. J., Roberts, M. J., Chan, S. C.,
and Senior, C. A.: Heavier summer downpours with climate change revealed by
weather forecast resolution model, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 570–576,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2258, 2014.
Koks, E. E., van Ginkel, K. C. H., van Marle, M. J. E., and Lemnitzer, A.: Brief communication: Critical infrastructure impacts of the 2021 mid-July western European flood event, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3831–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, 2022.
Kollet, S. J. and Maxwell, R. M.: Integrated surface–groundwater flow
modeling: A free-surface overland flow boundary condition in a parallel
groundwater flow model, Adv. Water Resour., 29, 945–958,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2005.08.006, 2006.
Kreienkamp, F., Philip, S. Y., Tradowsky, J. S., Kew, S. F., Lorenz, P.,
Arrighi, J., Belleflamme, A., Bettmann, T., Caluwaerts, S., Chan, S. C.,
Ciavarella, A., De Cruz, L., de Vries, H., Demuth, N., Ferrone, A., Fischer,
E. M., Fowler, H. J., Goergen, K., Heinrich, D., Henrichs, Y., Lenderink,
G., Kaspar, F., Nilson, E., Otto, F. E. L., Ragone, F., Seneviratne, S. I.,
Singh, R. K., Skålevåg, A., Termonia, P., Thalheimer, L., van Aalst,
M., Van den Bergh, J., Van de Vyver, H., Vannitsem, S., van Oldenborgh, G.
J., Van Schaeybroeck, B., Vautard, R., Vonk, D., and Wanders, N.: Rapid
attribution of heavy rainfall events leading to the severe flooding in
Western Europe during July 2021, World Weather Attribution (WWA),
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/heavy-rainfall-which-
led-to-severe-flooding-in-western-europe-made-more-likely-
by-climate-change
(last access: 21 December 2022), 2021.
Kuczera, G., Kavetski, D., Franks, S., and Thyer, M.: Towards a Bayesian
total error analysis of conceptual rainfall-runoff models: Characterising
model error using storm-dependent parameters, J. Hydrol., 331, 161–177,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.05.010, 2006.
Kuffour, B. N. O., Engdahl, N. B., Woodward, C. S., Condon, L. E., Kollet, S., and Maxwell, R. M.: Simulating coupled surface–subsurface flows with ParFlow v3.5.0: capabilities, applications, and ongoing development of an open-source, massively parallel, integrated hydrologic model, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1373–1397, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1373-2020, 2020.
Langanke, T., Steidl, M., Schleicher, C., and Sannier, C.: Copernicus Land
Monitoring Service – High Resolution Layer Imperviousness: Product
Specifications Document, European Environment Agency, https://land.copernicus.eu/user-corner/technical-library/hrl-imperviousness-technical-document-prod-2015
(last access: 21 December 2022), 2016.
Lin, P., Hopper, L. J., Yang, Z.-L., Lenz, M., and Zeitler, J. W.: Insights
into Hydrometeorological Factors Constraining Flood Prediction Skill during
the May and October 2015 Texas Hill Country Flood Events, J. Hydrometeorol.,
19, 1339–1361, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0038.1, 2018.
Lobligeois, F., Andréassian, V., Perrin, C., Tabary, P., and Loumagne, C.: When does higher spatial resolution rainfall information improve streamflow simulation? An evaluation using 3620 flood events, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 575–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-575-2014, 2014.
Lumbroso, D. and Gaume, E.: Reducing the uncertainty in indirect estimates
of extreme flash flood discharges, J. Hydrol., 414–415, 16–30,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.08.048, 2012.
Marshall, J. S. and Palmer, W. M. K.: The distribution of raindrops with
size, J. Atmos. Sci., 5, 165–166,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1948)005<0165:TDORWS>2.0.CO;2, 1948.
Maxwell, R. M.: A terrain-following grid transform and preconditioner for
parallel, large-scale, integrated hydrologic modeling, Adv. Water Resour.,
53, 109–117, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2012.10.001, 2013.
Mohr, S., Ehret, U., Kunz, M., Ludwig, P., Caldas-Alvarez, A., Daniell, J. E., Ehmele, F., Feldmann, H., Franca, M. J., Gattke, C., Hundhausen, M., Knippertz, P., Küpfer, K., Mühr, B., Pinto, J. G., Quinting, J., Schäfer, A. M., Scheibel, M., Seidel, F., and Wisotzky, C.: A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe. Part 1: Event description and analysis, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-137, in review, 2022.
Muñoz-Sabater, J., Dutra, E., Agustí-Panareda, A., Albergel, C., Arduini, G., Balsamo, G., Boussetta, S., Choulga, M., Harrigan, S., Hersbach, H., Martens, B., Miralles, D. G., Piles, M., Rodríguez-Fernández, N. J., Zsoter, E., Buontempo, C., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5-Land: a state-of-the-art global reanalysis dataset for land applications, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4349–4383, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4349-2021, 2021.
Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual
models part I – A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6, 1970.
Nissen, K. M. and Ulbrich, U.: Increasing frequencies and changing characteristics of heavy precipitation events threatening infrastructure in Europe under climate change, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1177–1190, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1177-2017, 2017.
Oudin, L., Hervieu, F., Michel, C., Perrin, C., Andréassian, V., Anctil,
F., and Loumagne, C.: Which potential evapotranspiration input for a lumped
rainfall–runoff model?: Part 2 – Towards a simple and efficient potential
evapotranspiration model for rainfall–runoff modelling, J. Hydrol., 303,
290–306, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.08.026, 2005.
Oudin, L., Perrin, C., Mathevet, T., Andréassian, V., and Michel, C.:
Impact of biased and randomly corrupted inputs on the efficiency and the
parameters of watershed models, J. Hydrol., 320, 62–83,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.07.016, 2006.
Panagos, P.: European Soil Database, GeoConnexion, 5, 32–33, 2006.
Park, S., Berenguer, M., and Sempere-Torres, D.: Long-term analysis of
gauge-adjusted radar rainfall accumulations at European scale, J. Hydrol.,
573, 768–777, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.03.093, 2019.
Pechlivanidis, I. G., McIntyre, N., and Wheater, H. S.: The significance of
spatial variability of rainfall on simulated runoff: an evaluation based on
the Upper Lee catchment, UK, Hydrol. Res., 48, 1118–1130,
https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2016.038, 2016.
Perrin, C., Michel, C., and Andréassian, V.: Improvement of a
parsimonious model for streamflow simulation, J. Hydrol., 279, 275–289,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00225-7, 2003.
Pokhrel, P. and Gupta, H. V.: On the ability to infer spatial catchment
variability using streamflow hydrographs, Water Resour. Res., 47, W08534,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009873, 2011.
Poméon, T., Wagner, N., Furusho, C., Kollet, S., and Reinoso-Rondinel,
R.: Performance of a PDE-Based Hydrologic Model in a Flash Flood Modeling
Framework in Sparsely-Gauged Catchments, Water, 12, 2157,
https://doi.org/10.3390/w12082157, 2020.
Porcacchia, L., Kirstetter, P. E., Gourley, J. J., Maggioni, V., Cheong, B.
L., and Anagnostou, M. N.: Toward a Polarimetric Radar Classification Scheme
for Coalescence-Dominant Precipitation: Application to Complex Terrain, J.
Hydrometeorol., 18, 3199–3215, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0016.1, 2017.
Raimonet, M., Oudin, L., Thieu, V., Silvestre, M., Vautard, R., Rabouille,
C., and Moigne, P. L.: Evaluation of Gridded Meteorological Datasets for
Hydrological Modeling, J. Hydrometeorol., 18, 3027–3041,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0018.1, 2017.
Rauthe, M., Steiner, H., Riediger, U., Mazurkiewicz, A., and Gratzki, A.: A
Central European precipitation climatology – Part I: Generation and
validation of a high-resolution gridded daily data set (HYRAS), Meteorol. Z., 22, 235–256, https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0436, 2013.
Reinoso-Rondinel, R. and Schleiss, M.: Quantitative Evaluation of
Polarimetric Estimates from Scanning Weather Radars Using a Vertically
Pointing Micro Rain Radar, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 38, 481–499,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-20-0062.1, 2021.
Renard, B., Kavetski, D., Leblois, E., Thyer, M., Kuczera, G., and Franks, S. W.: Toward a reliable decomposition of predictive uncertainty in hydrological modeling: Characterizing rainfall errors using conditional simulation, Water Resour. Res., 47, W11516, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR010643, 2011.
Ryzhkov, A., Diederich, M., Zhang, P., and Simmer, C.: Potential Utilization
of Specific Attenuation for Rainfall Estimation, Mitigation of Partial Beam
Blockage, and Radar Networking, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 31, 599–619, https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-13-00038.1, 2014.
Ryzhkov, A., Zhang, P., Bukovčić, P., Zhang, J., and Cocks, S.:
Polarimetric Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimation, Remote Sens., 14,
1695, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14071695, 2022.
Ryzhkov, A. V., Schuur, T. J., Burgess, D. W., Heinselman, P. L., Giangrande, S. E., and Zrnic, D. S.: The Joint Polarization Experiment: Polarimetric Rainfall Measurements and Hydrometeor Classification, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 86, 809–824, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-86-6-809, 2005.
Saulnier, G.-M. and Le Lay, M.: Sensitivity of flash-flood simulations on
the volume, the intensity, and the localization of rainfall in the
Cévennes-Vivarais region (France), Water Resour. Res., 45, W10425,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR006906, 2009.
Schaap, M. G., Leij, F. J., and van Genuchten, M. Th.: rosetta: a computer
program for estimating soil hydraulic parameters with hierarchical
pedotransfer functions, J. Hydrol., 251, 163–176, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00466-8, 2001.
Schalge, B., Haefliger, V., Kollet, S., and Simmer, C.: Improvement of
surface run-off in the hydrological model ParFlow by a scale-consistent
river parameterization, Hydrol. Process., 33, 2006–2019,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13448, 2019.
Schleiss, M., Olsson, J., Berg, P., Niemi, T., Kokkonen, T., Thorndahl, S., Nielsen, R., Ellerbæk Nielsen, J., Bozhinova, D., and Pulkkinen, S.: The accuracy of weather radar in heavy rain: a comparative study for Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland and Sweden, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3157–3188, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3157-2020, 2020.
Schröter, K., Kunz, M., Elmer, F., Mühr, B., and Merz, B.: What made the June 2013 flood in Germany an exceptional event? A hydro-meteorological evaluation, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 309–327, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-309-2015, 2015.
Singh, H. and Reza Najafi, M.: Evaluation of gridded climate datasets over
Canada using univariate and bivariate approaches: Implications for
hydrological modelling, J. Hydrol., 584, 124673, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124673, 2020.
Smith, S., reedmaxwell, i-ferguson, FabianGasper, Engdahl, N., Condon, L., xy124, Kulkarni, K., Beisman, J., basileh, geouke, cswoodward, Fonseca, J. A., and Thompson, D.: parflow-350/parflow: ParFlow Version 3.5.0, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3555297, 2019.
Sokol, Z., Szturc, J., Orellana-Alvear, J., Popová, J., Jurczyk, A., and
Célleri, R.: The Role of Weather Radar in Rainfall Estimation and Its
Application in Meteorological and Hydrological Modelling–A Review, Remote
Sens., 13, 351, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13030351, 2021.
Staatliches Umweltamt Köln: Ergebnisbericht Erft. Wasserrahmenrichtlinie
in NRW – Bestandsaufnahme, Ministerium fuer Umwelt und Naturschutz, Landwirtschaft und Verbraucherschutz des Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen, https://www.flussgebiete.nrw.de/system/files/atoms/files/erf_bestandsaufnahme_2004_erft.pdf
(last access: 9 January 2023), 2005 (in German).
Tetzlaff, D. and Uhlenbrook, S.: Significance of spatial variability in precipitation for process-oriented modelling: results from two nested catchments using radar and ground station data, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 29–41, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-9-29-2005, 2005.
Tobin, D. M. and Kumjian, M. R.: Polarimetric Radar and Surface-Based
Precipitation-Type Observations of Ice Pellet to Freezing Rain Transitions,
Weather Forecast., 32, 2065–2082, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0054.1, 2017.
Trenberth, K.: Changes in precipitation with climate change, Clim. Res., 47,
123–138, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00953, 2011.
Winterrath, T., Brendel, C., Hafer, M., Junghänel, T., Klameth, A.,
Lengfeld, K., Walawender, E., Weigl, E., and Becker, A.: Radar climatology
(RADKLIM) version 2017.002; gridded precipitation data for Germany:
Radar-based gauge-adjusted one-hour precipitation sum (RW), Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) [data set], https://doi.org/10.5676/DWD/RADKLIM_RW_V2017.002, 2018.
Yamazaki, D., Ikeshima, D., Sosa, J., Bates, P. D., Allen, G. H., and
Pavelsky, T. M.: MERIT Hydro: A High-Resolution Global Hydrography Map Based
on Latest Topography Dataset, Water Resour. Res., 55, 5053–5073,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR024873, 2019.
Zappa, M., Jaun, S., Germann, U., Walser, A., and Fundel, F.: Superposition
of three sources of uncertainties in operational flood forecasting chains,
Atmos. Res., 100, 246–262, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.12.005, 2011.
Zhou, Z., Smith, J. A., Yang, L., Baeck, M. L., Chaney, M., Veldhuis, M.-C.
T., Deng, H., and Liu, S.: The complexities of urban flood response: Flood
frequency analyses for the Charlotte metropolitan region, Water Resour.
Res., 53, 7401–7425, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019997, 2017.
Short summary
On 14 July 2021, heavy rainfall fell over central Europe, causing considerable damage and human fatalities. We analyzed how accurate our estimates of rainfall and peak flow were for these flooding events in western Germany. We found that the rainfall estimates from radar measurements were improved by including polarimetric variables and their vertical gradients. Peak flow estimates were highly uncertain due to uncertainties in hydrological model parameters and rainfall measurements.
On 14 July 2021, heavy rainfall fell over central Europe, causing considerable damage and human...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint