Articles | Volume 22, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3993-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3993-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Dec 2022
Research article |
| 14 Dec 2022
| 14 Dec 2022
Skillful decadal prediction of German Bight storm activity
Institute of Coastal Systems – Analysis and Modeling, Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Geesthacht, Germany
International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Hamburg, Germany
Sebastian Brune
Institute of Oceanography, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Patrick Pieper
Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Ralf Weisse
Institute of Coastal Systems – Analysis and Modeling, Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Geesthacht, Germany
Johanna Baehr
Institute of Oceanography, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
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Short summary
Accurate predictions of storm activity are desirable for coastal management. We investigate how well a climate model can predict storm activity in the German Bight 1–10 years in advance. We let the model predict the past, compare these predictions to observations, and analyze whether the model is doing better than simple statistical predictions. We find that the model generally shows good skill for extreme periods, but the prediction timeframes with good skill depend on the type of prediction.
Accurate predictions of storm activity are desirable for coastal management. We investigate how...
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