Articles | Volume 22, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3993-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3993-2022
Research article
 | 
14 Dec 2022
Research article |  | 14 Dec 2022

Skillful decadal prediction of German Bight storm activity

Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Patrick Pieper, Ralf Weisse, and Johanna Baehr

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Review of egusphere-2022-288', Anonymous Referee #1, 23 May 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Daniel Krieger, 19 Jul 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-288', Anonymous Referee #2, 26 May 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Daniel Krieger, 19 Jul 2022
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-288', Anonymous Referee #3, 17 Jun 2022
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC3', Daniel Krieger, 19 Jul 2022

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (22 Jul 2022) by Joaquim G. Pinto
AR by Daniel Krieger on behalf of the Authors (02 Sep 2022)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (27 Sep 2022) by Joaquim G. Pinto
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (06 Oct 2022)
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (26 Oct 2022)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (26 Oct 2022) by Joaquim G. Pinto
AR by Daniel Krieger on behalf of the Authors (17 Nov 2022)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (20 Nov 2022) by Joaquim G. Pinto
AR by Daniel Krieger on behalf of the Authors (21 Nov 2022)
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Short summary
Accurate predictions of storm activity are desirable for coastal management. We investigate how well a climate model can predict storm activity in the German Bight 1–10 years in advance. We let the model predict the past, compare these predictions to observations, and analyze whether the model is doing better than simple statistical predictions. We find that the model generally shows good skill for extreme periods, but the prediction timeframes with good skill depend on the type of prediction.
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