Articles | Volume 21, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
05 Oct 2021
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 05 Oct 2021
| 05 Oct 2021
An ensemble of state-of-the-art ash dispersion models: towards probabilistic forecasts to increase the resilience of air traffic against volcanic eruptions
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher
Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG), Vienna, 1190, Austria
Delia Arnold Arias
Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG), Vienna, 1190, Austria
Rocio Baro
Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG), Vienna, 1190, Austria
Guillaume Bigeard
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Luca Bugliaro
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Ana Carvalho
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, 601 76, Sweden
Laaziz El Amraoui
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Kurt Eschbacher
Paris Lodron University of Salzburg (PLUS), Salzburg, 5020, Austria
Marcus Hirtl
Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG), Vienna, 1190, Austria
Christian Maurer
Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG), Vienna, 1190, Austria
Marie D. Mulder
Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG), Vienna, 1190, Austria
Dennis Piontek
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Lennart Robertson
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, 601 76, Sweden
Carl-Herbert Rokitansky
Paris Lodron University of Salzburg (PLUS), Salzburg, 5020, Austria
Fritz Zobl
Paris Lodron University of Salzburg (PLUS), Salzburg, 5020, Austria
Raimund Zopp
Flightkeys GmbH, Vienna, 1060, Austria
Related authors
Sara Arriolabengoa, Pierre Crispel, Olivier Jaron, Yves Bouteloup, Benoît Vié, Yun Li, Andreas Petzold, and Matthieu Plu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1499, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
Aircraft condensation trails, also known as contrails, have a significant impact on the global climate when they persist. In this work, we present a modification to the Météo-France weather model ARPEGE to improve the forecasting of areas favourable to the persistence of contrails. The spatial correspondence between observations and the modified model is demonstrated and evaluated by appropriate metrics. The modified model can therefore be used for further contrail climate impact applications.
Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, Matthieu Plu, Laurent Descamps, and Thomas Rieutord
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1409–1427, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1409-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The predictability of Mediterranean cyclones is investigated through a large dataset of 1960 cyclones tracks, ensuring robust statistical results. The motion speed of the cyclone appears to determine the predictability of its location. In particular, the location of specific slow cyclones concentrated in the Gulf of Genoa is remarkably well predicted. It is also shown that the intensity of deep cyclones, occurring in winter, is particularly poorly predicted in the Mediterranean region.
Youness El-Ouartassy, Irène Korsakissok, Matthieu Plu, Olivier Connan, Laurent Descamps, and Laure Raynaud
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15793–15816, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15793-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15793-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work investigates the potential value of using fine-scale meteorological ensembles to represent the inherent meteorological uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion model outputs. Probabilistic scores were used to evaluate the probabilistic performance of dispersion ensembles, using an original dataset of new continuous 85Kr air concentration measurements and a well-known source term. The results show that the ensemble dispersion simulations perform better than deterministic ones.
Matthieu Plu, Guillaume Bigeard, Bojan Sič, Emanuele Emili, Luca Bugliaro, Laaziz El Amraoui, Jonathan Guth, Beatrice Josse, Lucia Mona, and Dennis Piontek
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3731–3747, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3731-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic eruptions that spread out ash over large areas, like Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, may have huge economic consequences due to flight cancellations. In this article, we demonstrate the benefits of source term improvement and of data assimilation for quantifying volcanic ash concentrations. The work, which was supported by the EUNADICS-AV project, is the first one, to our knowledge, that demonstrates the benefit of the assimilation of ground-based lidar data over Europe during an eruption.
Hugues Brenot, Nicolas Theys, Lieven Clarisse, Jeroen van Gent, Daniel R. Hurtmans, Sophie Vandenbussche, Nikolaos Papagiannopoulos, Lucia Mona, Timo Virtanen, Andreas Uppstu, Mikhail Sofiev, Luca Bugliaro, Margarita Vázquez-Navarro, Pascal Hedelt, Michelle Maree Parks, Sara Barsotti, Mauro Coltelli, William Moreland, Simona Scollo, Giuseppe Salerno, Delia Arnold-Arias, Marcus Hirtl, Tuomas Peltonen, Juhani Lahtinen, Klaus Sievers, Florian Lipok, Rolf Rüfenacht, Alexander Haefele, Maxime Hervo, Saskia Wagenaar, Wim Som de Cerff, Jos de Laat, Arnoud Apituley, Piet Stammes, Quentin Laffineur, Andy Delcloo, Robertson Lennart, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Arturo Vargas, Markus Kerschbaum, Christian Resch, Raimund Zopp, Matthieu Plu, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Michel Van Roozendael, and Gerhard Wotawa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3367–3405, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3367-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3367-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The purpose of the EUNADICS-AV (European Natural Airborne Disaster Information and Coordination System for Aviation) prototype early warning system (EWS) is to develop the combined use of harmonised data products from satellite, ground-based and in situ instruments to produce alerts of airborne hazards (volcanic, dust, smoke and radionuclide clouds), satisfying the requirement of aviation air traffic management (ATM) stakeholders (https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/723986).
Olivier Pannekoucke, Richard Ménard, Mohammad El Aabaribaoune, and Matthieu Plu
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-1-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical weather prediction involves numerically solving the mathematical equations, which describe the geophysical flow, by transforming them so that they can be computed. Through this transformation, it appears that the equations actually solved by the machine are then a modified version of the original equations, introducing an error that contributes to the model error. This work helps to characterize the covariance of the model error that is due to this modification of the equations.
Marcus Hirtl, Delia Arnold, Rocio Baro, Hugues Brenot, Mauro Coltelli, Kurt Eschbacher, Helmut Hard-Stremayer, Florian Lipok, Christian Maurer, Dieter Meinhard, Lucia Mona, Marie D. Mulder, Nikolaos Papagiannopoulos, Michael Pernsteiner, Matthieu Plu, Lennart Robertson, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, Klaus Sievers, Mikhail Sofiev, Wim Som de Cerff, Martin Steinheimer, Martin Stuefer, Nicolas Theys, Andreas Uppstu, Saskia Wagenaar, Roland Winkler, Gerhard Wotawa, Fritz Zobl, and Raimund Zopp
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1719–1739, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1719-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1719-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper summarizes the set-up and outcome of a volcanic-hazard demonstration exercise, with the goals of assessing and mitigating the impacts of volcanic ash clouds on civil and military aviation. Experts in the field simulated the sequence of procedures for an artificial eruption of the Etna volcano in Italy. The scope of the exercise ranged from the detection of the assumed event to the issuance of early warnings and optimized rerouting of flights.
Anne-Marlene Blechschmidt, Joaquim Arteta, Adriana Coman, Lyana Curier, Henk Eskes, Gilles Foret, Clio Gielen, Francois Hendrick, Virginie Marécal, Frédérik Meleux, Jonathan Parmentier, Enno Peters, Gaia Pinardi, Ankie J. M. Piters, Matthieu Plu, Andreas Richter, Arjo Segers, Mikhail Sofiev, Álvaro M. Valdebenito, Michel Van Roozendael, Julius Vira, Tim Vlemmix, and John P. Burrows
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2795–2823, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2795-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2795-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
MAX-DOAS tropospheric NO2 vertical column retrievals from a set of European measurement stations are compared to regional air quality models which contribute to the operational Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). Correlations are on the order of 35 %–75 %; large differences occur for individual pollution plumes. The results demonstrate that future model development needs to concentrate on improving representation of diurnal cycles and associated temporal scalings.
Maxence Descheemaecker, Matthieu Plu, Virginie Marécal, Marine Claeyman, Francis Olivier, Youva Aoun, Philippe Blanc, Lucien Wald, Jonathan Guth, Bojan Sič, Jérôme Vidot, Andrea Piacentini, and Béatrice Josse
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 1251–1275, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-1251-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-1251-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The future Flexible Combined Imager (FCI) on board MeteoSat Third Generation is expected to improve the detection and the quantification of aerosols. The study assesses the potential of FCI/VIS04 channel for monitoring air pollution in Europe. An observing system simulation experiment in MOCAGE is developed, and they show a large positive impact of the assimilation over a 4-month period and particularly during a severe pollution episode. The added value of geostationary data is also assessed.
Dimitris Akritidis, Eleni Katragkou, Prodromos Zanis, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Dimitris Melas, Johannes Flemming, Antje Inness, Hannah Clark, Matthieu Plu, and Henk Eskes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15515–15534, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15515-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15515-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Analysis and evaluation of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) global and regional forecast systems during a deep stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone transport event over Europe in January 2017. Radiosondes, satellite images, ozonesondes and aircraft measurements were used to investigate the folding of the tropopause at several European sites and the induced presence of dry and ozone-rich air in the troposphere.
Mikhail Sofiev, Olga Ritenberga, Roberto Albertini, Joaquim Arteta, Jordina Belmonte, Carmi Geller Bernstein, Maira Bonini, Sevcan Celenk, Athanasios Damialis, John Douros, Hendrik Elbern, Elmar Friese, Carmen Galan, Gilles Oliver, Ivana Hrga, Rostislav Kouznetsov, Kai Krajsek, Donat Magyar, Jonathan Parmentier, Matthieu Plu, Marje Prank, Lennart Robertson, Birthe Marie Steensen, Michel Thibaudon, Arjo Segers, Barbara Stepanovich, Alvaro M. Valdebenito, Julius Vira, and Despoina Vokou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12341–12360, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12341-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12341-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents the features and evaluates the quality of the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service forecasts of olive pollen distribution in Europe. It is shown that the models can predict the main features of the observed pollen distribution but have more difficulties in capturing the season start and end, which appeared shifted by a few days. We also demonstrated that the combined use of model predictions with up-to-date measurements (data fusion) can strongly improve the results.
V. Marécal, V.-H. Peuch, C. Andersson, S. Andersson, J. Arteta, M. Beekmann, A. Benedictow, R. Bergström, B. Bessagnet, A. Cansado, F. Chéroux, A. Colette, A. Coman, R. L. Curier, H. A. C. Denier van der Gon, A. Drouin, H. Elbern, E. Emili, R. J. Engelen, H. J. Eskes, G. Foret, E. Friese, M. Gauss, C. Giannaros, J. Guth, M. Joly, E. Jaumouillé, B. Josse, N. Kadygrov, J. W. Kaiser, K. Krajsek, J. Kuenen, U. Kumar, N. Liora, E. Lopez, L. Malherbe, I. Martinez, D. Melas, F. Meleux, L. Menut, P. Moinat, T. Morales, J. Parmentier, A. Piacentini, M. Plu, A. Poupkou, S. Queguiner, L. Robertson, L. Rouïl, M. Schaap, A. Segers, M. Sofiev, L. Tarasson, M. Thomas, R. Timmermans, Á. Valdebenito, P. van Velthoven, R. van Versendaal, J. Vira, and A. Ung
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2777–2813, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2777-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2777-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the air quality forecasting system over Europe put in place in the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate projects. It provides daily and 4-day forecasts and analyses for the previous day for major gas and particulate pollutants and their main precursors. These products are based on a multi-model approach using seven state-of-the-art models developed in Europe. An evaluation of the performance of the system is discussed in the paper.
J. Guerbette, M. Plu, C. Barthe, and J.-F. Mahfouf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-4919-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-4919-2015, 2015
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Active phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are known to favour the formation of tropical cyclones in the South-West Indian Ocean. A meso-scale numerical simulation of a tropical cyclogenesis during such an event is investigated. A large-scale Equatorial jet that is associated with the active phase of the MJO is shown to play a major role on the early stage of the cyclogenesis, through a transfer of kinetic energy from the jet to the cyclone.
A. Réchou, T. Narayana Rao, O. Bousquet, M. Plu, and R. Decoupes
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 409–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-409-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-409-2014, 2014
N. Yu, C. Barthe, and M. Plu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-999-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-999-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
M. Plu
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 20, 793–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-793-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-793-2013, 2013
Patrick Peter, Sigrun Matthes, Christine Frömming, Patrick Jöckel, Luca Bugliaro, Andreas Giez, Martina Krämer, and Volker Grewe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5911–5934, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5911-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5911-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study examines how well the global climate model EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) predicts contrail formation by analysing temperature and humidity – two key factors for contrail development and persistence. The model underestimates temperature, leading to an overprediction of contrail formation and larger ice-supersaturated regions. Adjusting the model improves temperature accuracy but adds uncertainties. Better predictions of contrail formation areas can help optimise flight tracks to reduce aviation's climate effect.
Sara Arriolabengoa, Pierre Crispel, Olivier Jaron, Yves Bouteloup, Benoît Vié, Yun Li, Andreas Petzold, and Matthieu Plu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1499, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
Aircraft condensation trails, also known as contrails, have a significant impact on the global climate when they persist. In this work, we present a modification to the Météo-France weather model ARPEGE to improve the forecasting of areas favourable to the persistence of contrails. The spatial correspondence between observations and the modified model is demonstrated and evaluated by appropriate metrics. The modified model can therefore be used for further contrail climate impact applications.
Marc Guevara, Augustin Colette, Antoine Guion, Valentin Petiot, Mario Adani, Joaquim Arteta, Anna Benedictow, Robert Bergström, Andrea Bolignano, Paula Camps, Ana C. Carvalho, Jesper Heile Christensen, Florian Couvidat, Ilia D’Elia, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Gaël Descombes, John Douros, Hilde Fagerli, Yalda Fatahi, Elmar Friese, Lise Frohn, Michael Gauss, Camilla Geels, Risto Hänninen, Kaj Hansen, Oriol Jorba, Jacek W. Kaminski, Rostislav Kouznetsov, Richard Kranenburg, Jeroen Kuenen, Victor Lannuque, Frédérik Meleux, Agnes Nyíri, Yuliia Palamarchuk, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Lennard Robertson, Felicita Russo, Arjo Segers, Mikhail Sofiev, Joanna Struzewska, Renske Timmermans, Andreas Uppstu, Alvaro Valdebenito, and Zhuyun Ye
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1287, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1287, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Air quality models require hourly emissions to accurately represent dispersion and physico-chemical processes in the atmosphere. Since emission inventories are typically provided at the annual level, emissions are downscaled to a refined temporal resolution using temporal profiles. This study quantifies the impact of using new anthropogenic temporal profiles on the performance of an European air quality multi-model ensemble. Overall, the findings indicate an improvement of the modelling results.
Ziming Wang, Luca Bugliaro, Klaus Gierens, Michaela I. Hegglin, Susanne Rohs, Andreas Petzold, Stefan Kaufmann, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2845–2861, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2845-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2845-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Upper-tropospheric relative humidity bias in the ERA5 weather model is corrected by 10 % by an artificial neural network using aircraft in-service humidity data and thermodynamic and dynamical variables. The improved skills of the weather model will advance cirrus research, weather forecasts, and measures for contrail reduction.
Augustin Colette, Gaëlle Collin, François Besson, Etienne Blot, Vincent Guidard, Frederik Meleux, Adrien Royer, Valentin Petiot, Claire Miller, Oihana Fermond, Alizé Jeant, Mario Adani, Joaquim Arteta, Anna Benedictow, Robert Bergström, Dene Bowdalo, Jorgen Brandt, Gino Briganti, Ana C. Carvalho, Jesper Heile Christensen, Florian Couvidat, Ilia D’Elia, Massimo D’Isidoro, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Gaël Descombes, Enza Di Tomaso, John Douros, Jeronimo Escribano, Henk Eskes, Hilde Fagerli, Yalda Fatahi, Johannes Flemming, Elmar Friese, Lise Frohn, Michael Gauss, Camilla Geels, Guido Guarnieri, Marc Guevara, Antoine Guion, Jonathan Guth, Risto Hänninen, Kaj Hansen, Ulas Im, Ruud Janssen, Marine Jeoffrion, Mathieu Joly, Luke Jones, Oriol Jorba, Evgeni Kadantsev, Michael Kahnert, Jacek W. Kaminski, Rostislav Kouznetsov, Richard Kranenburg, Jeroen Kuenen, Anne Caroline Lange, Joachim Langner, Victor Lannuque, Francesca Macchia, Astrid Manders, Mihaela Mircea, Agnes Nyiri, Miriam Olid, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Yuliia Palamarchuk, Antonio Piersanti, Blandine Raux, Miha Razinger, Lennard Robertson, Arjo Segers, Martijn Schaap, Pilvi Siljamo, David Simpson, Mikhail Sofiev, Anders Stangel, Joanna Struzewska, Carles Tena, Renske Timmermans, Thanos Tsikerdekis, Svetlana Tsyro, Svyatoslav Tyuryakov, Anthony Ung, Andreas Uppstu, Alvaro Valdebenito, Peter van Velthoven, Lina Vitali, Zhuyun Ye, Vincent-Henri Peuch, and Laurence Rouïl
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3744, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3744, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service – Regional Production delivers daily forecasts, analyses, and reanalyses of air quality in Europe. The Service relies on a distributed modelling production by eleven leading European modelling teams following stringent requirements with an operational design which has no equivalent in the world. All the products are full, free, open and quality assured and disseminated with a high level of reliability.
Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, Matthieu Plu, Laurent Descamps, and Thomas Rieutord
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1409–1427, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1409-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The predictability of Mediterranean cyclones is investigated through a large dataset of 1960 cyclones tracks, ensuring robust statistical results. The motion speed of the cyclone appears to determine the predictability of its location. In particular, the location of specific slow cyclones concentrated in the Gulf of Genoa is remarkably well predicted. It is also shown that the intensity of deep cyclones, occurring in winter, is particularly poorly predicted in the Mediterranean region.
Giulia Roccetti, Luca Bugliaro, Felix Gödde, Claudia Emde, Ulrich Hamann, Mihail Manev, Michael Fritz Sterzik, and Cedric Wehrum
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 6025–6046, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-6025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-6025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The amount of sunlight reflected by the Earth’s surface (albedo) is vital for the Earth's radiative system. While satellite instruments offer detailed spatial and temporal albedo maps, they only cover seven wavelength bands. We generate albedo maps that fully span the visible and near-infrared range using a machine learning algorithm. These maps reveal how the reflectivity of different land surfaces varies throughout the year. Our dataset enhances the understanding of the Earth's energy balance.
Johanna Mayer, Bernhard Mayer, Luca Bugliaro, Ralf Meerkötter, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 5161–5185, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5161-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses radiative transfer calculations to characterize the relation of two satellite channel combinations (namely infrared window brightness temperature differences – BTDs – of SEVIRI) to the thermodynamic cloud phase. A sensitivity analysis reveals the complex interplay of cloud parameters and their contribution to the observed phase dependence of BTDs. This knowledge helps to design optimal cloud-phase retrievals and to understand their potential and limitations.
Johanna Mayer, Luca Bugliaro, Bernhard Mayer, Dennis Piontek, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 4015–4039, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4015-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4015-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
ProPS (PRObabilistic cloud top Phase retrieval for SEVIRI) is a method to detect clouds and their thermodynamic phase with a geostationary satellite, distinguishing between clear sky and ice, mixed-phase, supercooled and warm liquid clouds. It uses a Bayesian approach based on the lidar–radar product DARDAR. The method allows studying cloud phases, especially mixed-phase and supercooled clouds, rarely observed from geostationary satellites. This can be used for comparison with climate models.
Ziming Wang, Husi Letu, Huazhe Shang, and Luca Bugliaro
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7559–7574, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7559-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The supercooled liquid fraction (SLF) in mixed-phase clouds is retrieved for the first time using passive geostationary satellite observations based on differences in liquid droplet and ice particle radiative properties. The retrieved results are comparable to global distributions observed by active instruments, and the feasibility of the retrieval method to analyze the observed trends of the SLF has been validated.
Ziming Wang, Luca Bugliaro, Tina Jurkat-Witschas, Romy Heller, Ulrike Burkhardt, Helmut Ziereis, Georgios Dekoutsidis, Martin Wirth, Silke Groß, Simon Kirschler, Stefan Kaufmann, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1941–1961, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1941-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1941-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Differences in the microphysical properties of contrail cirrus and natural cirrus in a contrail outbreak situation during the ML-CIRRUS campaign over the North Atlantic flight corridor can be observed from in situ measurements. The cirrus radiative effect in the area of the outbreak, derived from satellite observation-based radiative transfer modeling, is warming in the early morning and cooling during the day.
Youness El-Ouartassy, Irène Korsakissok, Matthieu Plu, Olivier Connan, Laurent Descamps, and Laure Raynaud
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15793–15816, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15793-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15793-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work investigates the potential value of using fine-scale meteorological ensembles to represent the inherent meteorological uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion model outputs. Probabilistic scores were used to evaluate the probabilistic performance of dispersion ensembles, using an original dataset of new continuous 85Kr air concentration measurements and a well-known source term. The results show that the ensemble dispersion simulations perform better than deterministic ones.
Mireia Papke Chica, Valerian Hahn, Tiziana Braeuer, Elena de la Torre Castro, Florian Ewald, Mathias Gergely, Simon Kirschler, Luca Bugliaro Goggia, Stefanie Knobloch, Martina Kraemer, Johannes Lucke, Johanna Mayer, Raphael Maerkl, Manuel Moser, Laura Tomsche, Tina Jurkat-Witschas, Martin Zoeger, Christian von Savigny, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-255, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-255, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
The mixed-phase temperature regime in convective clouds challenges our understanding of microphysical and radiative cloud properties. We provide a rare and unique dataset of aircraft in situ measurements in a strong mid-latitude convective system. We find that mechanisms initiating ice nucleation and growth strongly depend on temperature, relative humidity, and vertical velocity and variate within the measured system, resulting in altitude dependent changes of the cloud liquid and ice fraction.
Luca Bugliaro, Dennis Piontek, Stephan Kox, Marius Schmidl, Bernhard Mayer, Richard Müller, Margarita Vázquez-Navarro, Daniel M. Peters, Roy G. Grainger, Josef Gasteiger, and Jayanta Kar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1029–1054, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1029-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1029-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The monitoring of ash dispersion in the atmosphere is an important task for satellite remote sensing since ash represents a threat to air traffic. We present an AI-based method that retrieves the spatial extension and properties of volcanic ash clouds with high temporal resolution during day and night by means of geostationary satellite measurements. This algorithm, trained on realistic observations simulated with a radiative transfer model, runs operationally at the German Weather Service.
Matthieu Plu, Guillaume Bigeard, Bojan Sič, Emanuele Emili, Luca Bugliaro, Laaziz El Amraoui, Jonathan Guth, Beatrice Josse, Lucia Mona, and Dennis Piontek
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3731–3747, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3731-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic eruptions that spread out ash over large areas, like Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, may have huge economic consequences due to flight cancellations. In this article, we demonstrate the benefits of source term improvement and of data assimilation for quantifying volcanic ash concentrations. The work, which was supported by the EUNADICS-AV project, is the first one, to our knowledge, that demonstrates the benefit of the assimilation of ground-based lidar data over Europe during an eruption.
Hugues Brenot, Nicolas Theys, Lieven Clarisse, Jeroen van Gent, Daniel R. Hurtmans, Sophie Vandenbussche, Nikolaos Papagiannopoulos, Lucia Mona, Timo Virtanen, Andreas Uppstu, Mikhail Sofiev, Luca Bugliaro, Margarita Vázquez-Navarro, Pascal Hedelt, Michelle Maree Parks, Sara Barsotti, Mauro Coltelli, William Moreland, Simona Scollo, Giuseppe Salerno, Delia Arnold-Arias, Marcus Hirtl, Tuomas Peltonen, Juhani Lahtinen, Klaus Sievers, Florian Lipok, Rolf Rüfenacht, Alexander Haefele, Maxime Hervo, Saskia Wagenaar, Wim Som de Cerff, Jos de Laat, Arnoud Apituley, Piet Stammes, Quentin Laffineur, Andy Delcloo, Robertson Lennart, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Arturo Vargas, Markus Kerschbaum, Christian Resch, Raimund Zopp, Matthieu Plu, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Michel Van Roozendael, and Gerhard Wotawa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3367–3405, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3367-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3367-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The purpose of the EUNADICS-AV (European Natural Airborne Disaster Information and Coordination System for Aviation) prototype early warning system (EWS) is to develop the combined use of harmonised data products from satellite, ground-based and in situ instruments to produce alerts of airborne hazards (volcanic, dust, smoke and radionuclide clouds), satisfying the requirement of aviation air traffic management (ATM) stakeholders (https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/723986).
Ulrich Schumann, Ian Poll, Roger Teoh, Rainer Koelle, Enrico Spinielli, Jarlath Molloy, George S. Koudis, Robert Baumann, Luca Bugliaro, Marc Stettler, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7429–7450, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7429-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7429-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The roughly 70 % reduction of air traffic during the COVID-19 pandemic from March–August 2020 compared to 2019 provides a test case for the relationship between air traffic density, contrails, and their radiative forcing of climate change. This paper investigates the induced traffic and contrail changes in a model study. Besides strong weather changes, the model results indicate aviation-induced cirrus and top-of-the-atmosphere irradiance changes, which can be tested with observations.
Jérôme Barré, Hervé Petetin, Augustin Colette, Marc Guevara, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Laurence Rouil, Richard Engelen, Antje Inness, Johannes Flemming, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Dene Bowdalo, Frederik Meleux, Camilla Geels, Jesper H. Christensen, Michael Gauss, Anna Benedictow, Svetlana Tsyro, Elmar Friese, Joanna Struzewska, Jacek W. Kaminski, John Douros, Renske Timmermans, Lennart Robertson, Mario Adani, Oriol Jorba, Mathieu Joly, and Rostislav Kouznetsov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7373–7394, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7373-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7373-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides a comprehensive assessment of air quality changes across the main European urban areas induced by the COVID-19 lockdown using satellite observations, surface site measurements, and the forecasting system from the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS). We demonstrate the importance of accounting for weather and seasonal variability when calculating such estimates.
Harald Rybka, Ulrike Burkhardt, Martin Köhler, Ioanna Arka, Luca Bugliaro, Ulrich Görsdorf, Ákos Horváth, Catrin I. Meyer, Jens Reichardt, Axel Seifert, and Johan Strandgren
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4285–4318, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4285-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4285-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating the impact of convection on the upper-tropospheric water budget remains a problem for models employing resolutions of several kilometers or more. A sub-kilometer high-resolution model is used to study summertime convection. The results suggest mostly close agreement with ground- and satellite-based observational data while slightly overestimating total frozen water path and anvil lifetime. The simulations are well suited to supplying information for parameterization development.
Olivier Pannekoucke, Richard Ménard, Mohammad El Aabaribaoune, and Matthieu Plu
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-1-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical weather prediction involves numerically solving the mathematical equations, which describe the geophysical flow, by transforming them so that they can be computed. Through this transformation, it appears that the equations actually solved by the machine are then a modified version of the original equations, introducing an error that contributes to the model error. This work helps to characterize the covariance of the model error that is due to this modification of the equations.
Marcus Hirtl, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, Martin Stuefer, Delia Arnold, Rocio Baro, Christian Maurer, and Marie D. Mulder
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3099–3115, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3099-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3099-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper shows the application of a new volcanic emission preprocessor for the chemical transport model WRF-Chem. The model is evaluated with different observational data sets for the eruption of the Grimsvötn volcano 2011.
Laaziz El Amraoui, Bojan Sič, Andrea Piacentini, Virginie Marécal, Nicolas Frebourg, and Jean-Luc Attié
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 4645–4667, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-4645-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-4645-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The aim of this paper is to present the assimilation of lidar observations from the CALIOP instrument onboard the CALIPSO satellite in the chemistry-transport model of Météo-France, MOCAGE. We presented the first results of the assimilation of the extinction coefficient observations of the CALIOP lidar instrument during the pre-ChArMEx-TRAQA field campaign. We evaluated the added value of the assimilation product to better document a desert dust transport event compared to the model free run.
Marcus Hirtl, Delia Arnold, Rocio Baro, Hugues Brenot, Mauro Coltelli, Kurt Eschbacher, Helmut Hard-Stremayer, Florian Lipok, Christian Maurer, Dieter Meinhard, Lucia Mona, Marie D. Mulder, Nikolaos Papagiannopoulos, Michael Pernsteiner, Matthieu Plu, Lennart Robertson, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, Klaus Sievers, Mikhail Sofiev, Wim Som de Cerff, Martin Steinheimer, Martin Stuefer, Nicolas Theys, Andreas Uppstu, Saskia Wagenaar, Roland Winkler, Gerhard Wotawa, Fritz Zobl, and Raimund Zopp
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1719–1739, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1719-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1719-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper summarizes the set-up and outcome of a volcanic-hazard demonstration exercise, with the goals of assessing and mitigating the impacts of volcanic ash clouds on civil and military aviation. Experts in the field simulated the sequence of procedures for an artificial eruption of the Etna volcano in Italy. The scope of the exercise ranged from the detection of the assumed event to the issuance of early warnings and optimized rerouting of flights.
Anne-Marlene Blechschmidt, Joaquim Arteta, Adriana Coman, Lyana Curier, Henk Eskes, Gilles Foret, Clio Gielen, Francois Hendrick, Virginie Marécal, Frédérik Meleux, Jonathan Parmentier, Enno Peters, Gaia Pinardi, Ankie J. M. Piters, Matthieu Plu, Andreas Richter, Arjo Segers, Mikhail Sofiev, Álvaro M. Valdebenito, Michel Van Roozendael, Julius Vira, Tim Vlemmix, and John P. Burrows
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2795–2823, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2795-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2795-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
MAX-DOAS tropospheric NO2 vertical column retrievals from a set of European measurement stations are compared to regional air quality models which contribute to the operational Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). Correlations are on the order of 35 %–75 %; large differences occur for individual pollution plumes. The results demonstrate that future model development needs to concentrate on improving representation of diurnal cycles and associated temporal scalings.
Samuel Quesada-Ruiz, Jean-Luc Attié, William A. Lahoz, Rachid Abida, Philippe Ricaud, Laaziz El Amraoui, Régina Zbinden, Andrea Piacentini, Mathieu Joly, Henk Eskes, Arjo Segers, Lyana Curier, Johan de Haan, Jukka Kujanpää, Albert Christiaan Plechelmus Oude Nijhuis, Johanna Tamminen, Renske Timmermans, and Pepijn Veefkind
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 131–152, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-131-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-131-2020, 2020
Renske Timmermans, Arjo Segers, Lyana Curier, Rachid Abida, Jean-Luc Attié, Laaziz El Amraoui, Henk Eskes, Johan de Haan, Jukka Kujanpää, William Lahoz, Albert Oude Nijhuis, Samuel Quesada-Ruiz, Philippe Ricaud, Pepijn Veefkind, and Martijn Schaap
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12811–12833, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12811-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12811-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present an evaluation of the added value of the Sentinel-4 and Sentinel-5P missions for air quality analyses of NO2. For this, synthetic observations for both missions are generated and combined with a chemistry transport model. While hourly Sentinel-4 NO2 observations over Europe benefit modelled NO2 analyses throughout the entire day, daily Sentinel-5P NO2 observations with global coverage show an impact up to 3–6 h after overpass. This supports the need for a combination of missions.
Maxence Descheemaecker, Matthieu Plu, Virginie Marécal, Marine Claeyman, Francis Olivier, Youva Aoun, Philippe Blanc, Lucien Wald, Jonathan Guth, Bojan Sič, Jérôme Vidot, Andrea Piacentini, and Béatrice Josse
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 1251–1275, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-1251-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-1251-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The future Flexible Combined Imager (FCI) on board MeteoSat Third Generation is expected to improve the detection and the quantification of aerosols. The study assesses the potential of FCI/VIS04 channel for monitoring air pollution in Europe. An observing system simulation experiment in MOCAGE is developed, and they show a large positive impact of the assimilation over a 4-month period and particularly during a severe pollution episode. The added value of geostationary data is also assessed.
Dimitris Akritidis, Eleni Katragkou, Prodromos Zanis, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Dimitris Melas, Johannes Flemming, Antje Inness, Hannah Clark, Matthieu Plu, and Henk Eskes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15515–15534, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15515-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15515-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Analysis and evaluation of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) global and regional forecast systems during a deep stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone transport event over Europe in January 2017. Radiosondes, satellite images, ozonesondes and aircraft measurements were used to investigate the folding of the tropopause at several European sites and the induced presence of dry and ozone-rich air in the troposphere.
Rocío Baró, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Martin Stengel, Dominik Brunner, Gabriele Curci, Renate Forkel, Lucy Neal, Laura Palacios-Peña, Nicholas Savage, Martijn Schaap, Paolo Tuccella, Hugo Denier van der Gon, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15183–15199, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15183-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15183-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Particles in the atmosphere, such as pollution, desert dust, and volcanic ash, have an impact on meteorology. They interact with incoming radiation resulting in a cooling effect of the atmosphere. Today, the use of meteorology and chemistry models help us to understand these processes, but there are a lot of uncertainties. The goal of this work is to evaluate how these interactions are represented in the models by comparing them to satellite data to see how close they are to reality.
Nizar Jaidan, Laaziz El Amraoui, Jean-Luc Attié, Philippe Ricaud, and François Dulac
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9351–9373, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9351-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9351-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Mediterranean Basin, surrounded by three continents with diverse pollution sources, is particularly sensitive to climate change due to its location and diversity of ecosystems. In this work, we investigate the future change of surface ozone from 2000 to 2100 over this region using a set of atmospheric model outputs and ground-based observations. We also highlight how the future climate change and the increase of methane concentrations can offset the benefit of the pollution reduction policy.
Vanessa Brocchi, Gisèle Krysztofiak, Valéry Catoire, Jonathan Guth, Virginie Marécal, Régina Zbinden, Laaziz El Amraoui, François Dulac, and Philippe Ricaud
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6887–6906, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6887-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6887-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Mediterranean Basin still suffers from a limited amount of in situ measurements for a good characterization of its environmental state. This study shows that intercontinental transport of very high CO concentrations can affect the upper Mediterranean Basin troposphere. By using modeling, 5- to 12-day eastward transport of biomass burning starting from North America and Siberia impacts the mid-troposphere of the Mediterranean Basin.
Laura Palacios-Peña, Rocío Baró, Alexander Baklanov, Alessandra Balzarini, Dominik Brunner, Renate Forkel, Marcus Hirtl, Luka Honzak, José María López-Romero, Juan Pedro Montávez, Juan Luis Pérez, Guido Pirovano, Roberto San José, Wolfram Schröder, Johannes Werhahn, Ralf Wolke, Rahela Žabkar, and Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5021–5043, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5021-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5021-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric aerosols modify the radiative budget of the Earth, and it is therefore mandatory to have an accurate representation of their optical properties for understanding their climatic role. This work therefore evaluates the skill in the representation of optical properties by different remote-sensing sensors and regional online coupled chemistry–climate models over Europe.
Hallgeir Wilhelmsen, Florian Ladstädter, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, and Andrea K. Steiner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 1333–1346, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1333-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1333-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical atmospheric variability is often described using proxy indices of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We introduce new proxies derived from GNSS radio occultation (RO) satellite measurements. Using the high vertical resolution of the RO temperature fields we obtain altitude-resolved indices which can improve the description of atmospheric variability patterns and can be used in climate studies where a detailed knowledge of these patterns is required.
Petr Pisoft, Petr Sacha, Jiri Miksovsky, Peter Huszar, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, and Ulrich Foelsche
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 515–527, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-515-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-515-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We revise selected findings regarding utilization of Global Positioning System radio occultation density profiles for analysis of internal gravity waves. The results show that previously published results are valid only for one specific data version only. Using radiosonde profiles, we also analyze a nonhydrostatic component in temperature profiles. The last part presents detailed study on the utilization of density profiles for characterization of the wave field stability.
Barbara Angerer, Florian Ladstädter, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, Marc Schwärz, Andrea K. Steiner, Ulrich Foelsche, and Gottfried Kirchengast
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 4845–4863, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4845-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4845-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present a detailed analysis of the latest Wegener Center GPS radio occultation reprocessing (OPSv5.6) output. Knowledge of differences in data quality, as well as of data consistency, is essential when combining data from different missions to a long-term climate record. We compare quality aspects of the various processed satellite missions and present satellite-dependent variations. Temperature data from various satellites are found to be highly consistent within 8 to 25 km.
Camilla Andersson, Heléne Alpfjord, Lennart Robertson, Per Erik Karlsson, and Magnuz Engardt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13869–13890, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13869-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13869-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We show that high near-surface O3 concentrations in Sweden are decreasing and low O3 concentrations are increasing during 1990–2013. The cause for the change is a combination of change in hemispheric background, meteorology and anthropogenic emissions. We have identified systematic differences in the modelled trend that must be caused by incorrect trends in the utilized emissions or by too high sensitivity in the model. We based the analysis on fused measurements and modelling.
Johan Strandgren, Jennifer Fricker, and Luca Bugliaro
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 4317–4339, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4317-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4317-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We characterise the the performance of a set of artificial neural networks used for the remote sensing of cirrus clouds from the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation satellites. The retrievals show little interference with the underlying land surface type as well as with possible liquid water clouds or aerosol layers below the cirrus cloud. We also characterise the retrievals as a funtion of optical thickness and top height and gain better understanding of the retrival uncertainties of CiPS
Mikhail Sofiev, Olga Ritenberga, Roberto Albertini, Joaquim Arteta, Jordina Belmonte, Carmi Geller Bernstein, Maira Bonini, Sevcan Celenk, Athanasios Damialis, John Douros, Hendrik Elbern, Elmar Friese, Carmen Galan, Gilles Oliver, Ivana Hrga, Rostislav Kouznetsov, Kai Krajsek, Donat Magyar, Jonathan Parmentier, Matthieu Plu, Marje Prank, Lennart Robertson, Birthe Marie Steensen, Michel Thibaudon, Arjo Segers, Barbara Stepanovich, Alvaro M. Valdebenito, Julius Vira, and Despoina Vokou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12341–12360, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12341-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12341-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents the features and evaluates the quality of the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service forecasts of olive pollen distribution in Europe. It is shown that the models can predict the main features of the observed pollen distribution but have more difficulties in capturing the season start and end, which appeared shifted by a few days. We also demonstrated that the combined use of model predictions with up-to-date measurements (data fusion) can strongly improve the results.
Johan Strandgren, Luca Bugliaro, Frank Sehnke, and Leon Schröder
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 3547–3573, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-3547-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-3547-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The new algorithm CiPS is presented and validated. CiPS detects cirrus clouds, identifies opaque pixels and retrieves the corresponding optical thickness, cloud top height and ice water path from the geostationary imager MSG/SEVIRI. CiPS utilises a set of four artificial neural networks trained with space-borne lidar data, thermal MSG/SEVIRI observations, model data and auxiliary data.
To demonstrate the capabilities of CiPS, the life cycle of a thin cirrus cloud is analysed.
Rocío Baró, Laura Palacios-Peña, Alexander Baklanov, Alessandra Balzarini, Dominik Brunner, Renate Forkel, Marcus Hirtl, Luka Honzak, Juan Luis Pérez, Guido Pirovano, Roberto San José, Wolfram Schröder, Johannes Werhahn, Ralf Wolke, Rahela Žabkar, and Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9677–9696, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9677-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9677-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The influence on modeled max., mean and min. temperature over Europe of including aerosol–radiation–cloud interactions has been assessed for two case studies in 2010. Data were taken from an ensemble of online regional chemistry–climate models from EuMetChem COST Action. The results indicate that including these interactions clearly improves the spatiotemporal variability in the temperature signal simulated by the models, with implications for reducing the uncertainty in climate projections.
Tobias Sirch, Luca Bugliaro, Tobias Zinner, Matthias Möhrlein, and Margarita Vazquez-Navarro
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 409–429, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-409-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-409-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
A novel approach for the nowcasting of clouds and direct normal irradiance (DNI) based on the geostationary satellite MSG is presented. The basis of the algorithm is an optical flow method to derive cloud motion vectors for low and high level clouds separately. DNI is calculated from the forecasted optical thickness of the clouds. Validation against MSG observations shows good performance: compared to persistence an improvement of forecast horizon by a factor of 2 is reached for 2 h forecasts.
Rachid Abida, Jean-Luc Attié, Laaziz El Amraoui, Philippe Ricaud, William Lahoz, Henk Eskes, Arjo Segers, Lyana Curier, Johan de Haan, Jukka Kujanpää, Albert Oude Nijhuis, Johanna Tamminen, Renske Timmermans, and Pepijn Veefkind
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1081–1103, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1081-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1081-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
A detailed Observing System Simulation Experiment is performed to quantify the impact of future satellite instrument S-5P carbon monoxide (CO) on tropospheric analyses and forecasts. We focus on Europe for the period of northern summer 2003, when there was a severe heat wave episode. S-5P is able to capture the CO from forest fires that occurred in Portugal. Furthermore, our results provide evidence of S-5P CO benefits for monitoring processes contributing to atmospheric pollution.
Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, William J. Randel, and Joowan Kim
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 793–806, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-793-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-793-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical temperature variability and associated Kelvin-wave activity are investigated from 10 km to 30 km using 13 years of high-resolution observational data. Strongest temperature variability is found in the tropical tropopause region between about 16 km and 20 km, where peaks of Kelvin-wave activity are irregularly distributed in time. Detailed knowledge of dynamical processes in the tropical tropopause region is an essential part of better understanding climate variability and change.
Laura Palacios-Peña, Rocío Baró, Juan Luis Guerrero-Rascado, Lucas Alados-Arboledas, Dominik Brunner, and Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 277–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-277-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-277-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The effects of atmospheric aerosols over the Earth’s climate mainly depend on their optical, microphysical and chemical properties, which modify the Earth's radiative budget, the main source of uncertainty in climate change. In this work we have studied the representation of aerosol optical properties using an online coupled model (WRF-Chem) when aerosol–radiation interactions (ARIs) and aerosol–clouds interactions (ACIs) are taken into account over the Iberian Peninsula.
Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Ulas Im, Efisio Solazzo, Roberto Bianconi, Alba Badia, Alessandra Balzarini, Rocío Baró, Roberto Bellasio, Dominik Brunner, Charles Chemel, Gabriele Curci, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Johannes Flemming, Renate Forkel, Lea Giordano, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Marcus Hirtl, Oriol Jorba, Astrid Manders-Groot, Lucy Neal, Juan L. Pérez, Guidio Pirovano, Roberto San Jose, Nicholas Savage, Wolfram Schroder, Ranjeet S. Sokhi, Dimiter Syrakov, Paolo Tuccella, Johannes Werhahn, Ralf Wolke, Christian Hogrefe, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15629–15652, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15629-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15629-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Four ensemble methods are applied to two annual AQMEII datasets and their performance is compared for O3, NO2 and PM10. The goal of the study is to quantify to what extent we can extract predictable signals from an ensemble with superior skill at each station over the single models and the ensemble mean. The promotion of the right amount of accuracy and diversity within the ensemble results in an average additional skill of up to 31 % compared to using the full ensemble in an unconditional way.
François Gheusi, Pierre Durand, Nicolas Verdier, François Dulac, Jean-Luc Attié, Philippe Commun, Brice Barret, Claude Basdevant, Antoine Clenet, Solène Derrien, Alexis Doerenbecher, Laaziz El Amraoui, Alain Fontaine, Emeric Hache, Corinne Jambert, Elodie Jaumouillé, Yves Meyerfeld, Laurent Roblou, and Flore Tocquer
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 5811–5832, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5811-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5811-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Boundary-layer pressurised balloons allow for horizontal multi-day flights in the lower atmosphere, carrying light scientific payloads. Ozonesondes, usually used for balloon soundings have too short a lifetime for such flights. An adaptation is proposed, whereby conventional sondes are operated with short measurement phases alternating with longer periods of dormancy. The sondes were operated over the western Mediterranean, offering an original perspective on tropospheric ozone.
Bojan Sič, Laaziz El Amraoui, Andrea Piacentini, Virginie Marécal, Emanuele Emili, Daniel Cariolle, Michael Prather, and Jean-Luc Attié
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 5535–5554, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5535-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5535-2016, 2016
Tobias Zinner, Petra Hausmann, Florian Ewald, Luca Bugliaro, Claudia Emde, and Bernhard Mayer
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 4615–4632, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-4615-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-4615-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
A new retrieval of optical thickness and effective particle size of ice clouds over a wide range of optical thickness from transmittance measurements is presented. A visible range spectral slope is used to resolve the transmittance optical thickness ambiguity. Retrieval sensitivity to ice crystal habit, aerosol, albedo, sensor accuracy and lookup table interpolation is presented as well as an application of the method and comparison to satellite products for 2 days.
Swagata Payra, Philippe Ricaud, Rachid Abida, Laaziz El Amraoui, Jean-Luc Attié, Emmanuel Rivière, Fabien Carminati, and Thomas von Clarmann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 4355–4373, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-4355-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-4355-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The study deals with the budget of water vapour (H2O) at the tropical tropopause. The MOCAGE-VALENTINA assimilation tool has been used to assimilate Microwave Limb Sounder H2O space-borne measurements within the 316–5 hPa range from August 2011 to March 2013. Diagnostics are developed to assess the quality of the analyses depending on several parameters. Sensitivity studies show the improvement on the analyses when assimilating measurements of better quality, mainly over the convective areas.
Claudia Emde, Robert Buras-Schnell, Arve Kylling, Bernhard Mayer, Josef Gasteiger, Ulrich Hamann, Jonas Kylling, Bettina Richter, Christian Pause, Timothy Dowling, and Luca Bugliaro
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1647–1672, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1647-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1647-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
libradtran is a widely used software package for radiative transfer calculations. It allows one to compute (polarized) radiances, irradiance, and actinic fluxes in the solar and thermal spectral regions. This paper gives an overview of libradtran version 2.0 with focus on new features (e.g. polarization, Raman scattering, absorption parameterization, cloud and aerosol optical properties). libRadtran is freely available at http://www.libradtran.org.
Lukas Brunner, Andrea K. Steiner, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, and Martin W. Jury
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4593–4604, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4593-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4593-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric blocking refers to persistent high-pressure systems which block the climatological flow at midlatitudes. We explore blocking with observations from GPS radio occultation (RO), a satellite-based remote-sensing system. Using two example cases, we find that RO data robustly capture blocking, highlighting the potential of RO observations to complement models and reanalysis as a basis for blocking research.
A. M. Toihir, H. Bencherif, V. Sivakumar, L. El Amraoui, T. Portafaix, and N. Mbatha
Ann. Geophys., 33, 1135–1146, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-1135-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-1135-2015, 2015
V. Marécal, V.-H. Peuch, C. Andersson, S. Andersson, J. Arteta, M. Beekmann, A. Benedictow, R. Bergström, B. Bessagnet, A. Cansado, F. Chéroux, A. Colette, A. Coman, R. L. Curier, H. A. C. Denier van der Gon, A. Drouin, H. Elbern, E. Emili, R. J. Engelen, H. J. Eskes, G. Foret, E. Friese, M. Gauss, C. Giannaros, J. Guth, M. Joly, E. Jaumouillé, B. Josse, N. Kadygrov, J. W. Kaiser, K. Krajsek, J. Kuenen, U. Kumar, N. Liora, E. Lopez, L. Malherbe, I. Martinez, D. Melas, F. Meleux, L. Menut, P. Moinat, T. Morales, J. Parmentier, A. Piacentini, M. Plu, A. Poupkou, S. Queguiner, L. Robertson, L. Rouïl, M. Schaap, A. Segers, M. Sofiev, L. Tarasson, M. Thomas, R. Timmermans, Á. Valdebenito, P. van Velthoven, R. van Versendaal, J. Vira, and A. Ung
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2777–2813, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2777-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2777-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the air quality forecasting system over Europe put in place in the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate projects. It provides daily and 4-day forecasts and analyses for the previous day for major gas and particulate pollutants and their main precursors. These products are based on a multi-model approach using seven state-of-the-art models developed in Europe. An evaluation of the performance of the system is discussed in the paper.
Y. Li, G. Kirchengast, B. Scherllin-Pirscher, R. Norman, Y. B. Yuan, J. Fritzer, M. Schwaerz, and K. Zhang
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 3447–3465, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-3447-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-3447-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new dynamic statistical optimization algorithm to initialize ionosphere-corrected bending angles of Global Navigation Satellite System-based radio occultation measurements. The new algorithm is evaluated against the OPSv5.6 algorithm developed by the Wegener Center using both simulated and real observed data. It is found that the algorithm can significantly reduce the random errors of optimized bending angles. The retrieved refractivity and temperature profiles are also benefited.
J. Guerbette, M. Plu, C. Barthe, and J.-F. Mahfouf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-4919-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-4919-2015, 2015
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Active phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are known to favour the formation of tropical cyclones in the South-West Indian Ocean. A meso-scale numerical simulation of a tropical cyclogenesis during such an event is investigated. A large-scale Equatorial jet that is associated with the active phase of the MJO is shown to play a major role on the early stage of the cyclogenesis, through a transfer of kinetic energy from the jet to the cyclone.
M. Bocquet, H. Elbern, H. Eskes, M. Hirtl, R. Žabkar, G. R. Carmichael, J. Flemming, A. Inness, M. Pagowski, J. L. Pérez Camaño, P. E. Saide, R. San Jose, M. Sofiev, J. Vira, A. Baklanov, C. Carnevale, G. Grell, and C. Seigneur
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5325–5358, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5325-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5325-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Data assimilation is used in atmospheric chemistry models to improve air quality forecasts, construct re-analyses of concentrations, and perform inverse modeling. Coupled chemistry meteorology models (CCMM) are atmospheric chemistry models that simulate meteorological processes and chemical transformations jointly. We review here the current status of data assimilation in atmospheric chemistry models, with a particular focus on future prospects for data assimilation in CCMM.
B. Sič, L. El Amraoui, V. Marécal, B. Josse, J. Arteta, J. Guth, M. Joly, and P. D. Hamer
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 381–408, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-381-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-381-2015, 2015
B. Scherllin-Pirscher, S. Syndergaard, U. Foelsche, and K. B. Lauritsen
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 109–124, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-109-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-109-2015, 2015
T. Rieckh, B. Scherllin-Pirscher, F. Ladstädter, and U. Foelsche
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 3947–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3947-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3947-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
Radio Occultation (RO) observations featuring high vertical resolution, global availability, and high accuracy were used to investigate global characteristics of the lapse rate tropopause. Climatological tropopause characteristics for the
RO record from 2001 to 2013 extend previous studies on tropopause structure and its temporal variability. Latitudinal and longitudinal variations as well as the annual cycle and inter-annual variability were analyzed for the tropopause altitude and temperature.
A. T. J. de Laat, I. Aben, M. Deeter, P. Nédélec, H. Eskes, J.-L. Attié, P. Ricaud, R. Abida, L. El Amraoui, and J. Landgraf
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 3783–3799, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3783-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3783-2014, 2014
P. Ricaud, B. Sič, L. El Amraoui, J.-L. Attié, R. Zbinden, P. Huszar, S. Szopa, J. Parmentier, N. Jaidan, M. Michou, R. Abida, F. Carminati, D. Hauglustaine, T. August, J. Warner, R. Imasu, N. Saitoh, and V.-H. Peuch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11427–11446, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11427-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11427-2014, 2014
S. Kox, L. Bugliaro, and A. Ostler
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 3233–3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3233-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3233-2014, 2014
L. El Amraoui, J.-L. Attié, P. Ricaud, W. A. Lahoz, A. Piacentini, V.-H. Peuch, J. X. Warner, R. Abida, J. Barré, and R. Zbinden
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 3035–3057, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3035-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3035-2014, 2014
U. Hamann, A. Walther, B. Baum, R. Bennartz, L. Bugliaro, M. Derrien, P. N. Francis, A. Heidinger, S. Joro, A. Kniffka, H. Le Gléau, M. Lockhoff, H.-J. Lutz, J. F. Meirink, P. Minnis, R. Palikonda, R. Roebeling, A. Thoss, S. Platnick, P. Watts, and G. Wind
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 2839–2867, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2839-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2839-2014, 2014
J. Danzer, U. Foelsche, B. Scherllin-Pirscher, and M. Schwärz
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 2883–2896, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2883-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2883-2014, 2014
E. Hache, J.-L. Attié, C. Tourneur, P. Ricaud, L. Coret, W. A. Lahoz, L. El Amraoui, B. Josse, P. Hamer, J. Warner, X. Liu, K. Chance, M. Höpfner, R. Spurr, V. Natraj, S. Kulawik, A. Eldering, and J. Orphal
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 2185–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2185-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2185-2014, 2014
B. Reinhardt, R. Buras, L. Bugliaro, S. Wilbert, and B. Mayer
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 823–838, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-823-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-823-2014, 2014
A. Réchou, T. Narayana Rao, O. Bousquet, M. Plu, and R. Decoupes
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 409–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-409-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-409-2014, 2014
N. Yu, C. Barthe, and M. Plu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-999-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-999-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
J.-F. Gayet, V. Shcherbakov, L. Bugliaro, A. Protat, J. Delanoë, J. Pelon, and A. Garnier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 899–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-899-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-899-2014, 2014
A. Baklanov, K. Schlünzen, P. Suppan, J. Baldasano, D. Brunner, S. Aksoyoglu, G. Carmichael, J. Douros, J. Flemming, R. Forkel, S. Galmarini, M. Gauss, G. Grell, M. Hirtl, S. Joffre, O. Jorba, E. Kaas, M. Kaasik, G. Kallos, X. Kong, U. Korsholm, A. Kurganskiy, J. Kushta, U. Lohmann, A. Mahura, A. Manders-Groot, A. Maurizi, N. Moussiopoulos, S. T. Rao, N. Savage, C. Seigneur, R. S. Sokhi, E. Solazzo, S. Solomos, B. Sørensen, G. Tsegas, E. Vignati, B. Vogel, and Y. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 317–398, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-317-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-317-2014, 2014
E. Emili, B. Barret, S. Massart, E. Le Flochmoen, A. Piacentini, L. El Amraoui, O. Pannekoucke, and D. Cariolle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 177–198, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-177-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-177-2014, 2014
J. X. Warner, R. Yang, Z. Wei, F. Carminati, A. Tangborn, Z. Sun, W. Lahoz, J.-L. Attié, L. El Amraoui, and B. Duncan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 103–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-103-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-103-2014, 2014
J. Brioude, D. Arnold, A. Stohl, M. Cassiani, D. Morton, P. Seibert, W. Angevine, S. Evan, A. Dingwell, J. D. Fast, R. C. Easter, I. Pisso, J. Burkhart, and G. Wotawa
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1889–1904, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1889-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1889-2013, 2013
M. Plu
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 20, 793–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-793-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-793-2013, 2013
J. Danzer, B. Scherllin-Pirscher, and U. Foelsche
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 2169–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-2169-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-2169-2013, 2013
F. Ewald, L. Bugliaro, H. Mannstein, and B. Mayer
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 309–322, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-309-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-309-2013, 2013
A. K. Steiner, D. Hunt, S.-P. Ho, G. Kirchengast, A. J. Mannucci, B. Scherllin-Pirscher, H. Gleisner, A. von Engeln, T. Schmidt, C. Ao, S. S. Leroy, E. R. Kursinski, U. Foelsche, M. Gorbunov, S. Heise, Y.-H. Kuo, K. B. Lauritsen, C. Marquardt, C. Rocken, W. Schreiner, S. Sokolovskiy, S. Syndergaard, and J. Wickert
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1469–1484, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1469-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1469-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Verifying the relationships among the variabilities of summer rainfall extremes over Japan in the d4PDF climate ensemble, Pacific sea surface temperature, and monsoon activity
Tree fall along railway lines: modelling the impact of wind and other meteorological factors
The probabilistic skill of extended-range heat wave forecasts over Europe
An appraisal of the value of simulated weather data for quantifying coastal flood hazard in the Netherlands
Insights into thunderstorm characteristics from geostationary lightning jump and dive observations
The unique features in the 4 d widespread extreme rainfall event over North China in July 2023
Classifying extratropical cyclones and their impact on Finland's electricity grid: insights from 92 damaging windstorms
Evaluation of machine learning approaches for large-scale agricultural drought forecasts to improve monitoring and preparedness in Brazil
Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling strength over central Europe in the recent warming climate
A data-driven framework for assessing climatic impact drivers in the context of food security
Soil conditioner mixtures as an agricultural management alternative to mitigate drought impacts: a proof of concept
Extreme heat and mortality in the State of Rio de Janeiro in the 2023/24 season: attribution to climate change and ENSO
Compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation
Probabilistic hazard analysis of the gas emission of Mefite d'Ansanto, southern Italy
Are heavy-rainfall events a major trigger of associated natural hazards along the German rail network?
Brief communication: Forecasting extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers in New Zealand
The record-breaking precipitation event of December 2022 in Portugal
Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies
Indirect assimilation of radar reflectivity data with an adaptive hydrometer retrieval scheme for the short-term severe weather forecasts
Assimilation of temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
The anomalously thundery month of June 1925 in southwest Spain: description and synoptic analysis
Spatial identification of regions exposed to multi-hazards at the pan-European level
Classification of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones using multiple measures of intensity
Subseasonal forecasts of heat waves in West African cities
Impacts on and damage to European forests from the 2018–2022 heat and drought events
Brief communication: Training of AI-based nowcasting models for rainfall early warning should take into account user requirements
Examining the Eastern European extreme summer temperatures of 2023 from a long-term perspective: the role of natural variability vs. anthropogenic factors
How well are hazards associated with derechos reproduced in regional climate simulations?
Is considering runs (in)consistency so useless for weather forecasting?
Reconstructing hail days in Switzerland with statistical models (1959–2022)
Exploring the interplay between observed warming, atmospheric circulation, and soil-atmosphere feedbacks on heatwaves in a temperate mountain region
High-Resolution Data Assimilation for Two Maritime Extreme Weather Events: A comparison between 3DVar and EnKF
Reask UTC: a machine learning modeling framework to generate climate connected tropical cyclone event sets globally
Historical changes in drought characteristics and its impact on vegetation cover over Madagascar
GTDI: a game-theory-based integrated drought index implying hazard-causing and hazard-bearing impact change
Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms?
Invited perspectives: Thunderstorm Intensification from Mountains to Plains
Intense rains in Israel associated with the train effect
Review article: The growth in compound weather events research in the decade since SREX
Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia
Impact-based temporal clustering of multiple meteorological hazard types in southwestern Germany
On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation through citizen science
Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data
Exploring the sensitivity of extreme event attribution of two recent extreme weather events in Sweden using long-running meteorological observations
Probabilistic short-range forecasts of high-precipitation events: optimal decision thresholds and predictability limits
The ability of a stochastic regional weather generator to reproduce heavy precipitation events across scales
Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters
Modelling crop hail damage footprints with single-polarization radar: the roles of spatial resolution, hail intensity, and cropland density
Insights into ground strike point properties in Europe through the EUCLID lightning location system
The role of citizen science in assessing the spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall events in urban areas: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy
Shao-Yi Lee, Sicheng He, and Tetsuya Takemi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2225–2253, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2225-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2225-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The authors performed verification on the relationships between extreme monsoon rainfall over Japan and Pacific sea surface temperature variability in the “database for Policy Decision-making for Future climate changes” (d4PDF). Observations showed widespread weak relationships between hourly extremes and the warming mode but reversed relationships between daily extremes and the decadal variability mode. Biases in d4PDF could be explained by the monsoon's slower movement over Japan in the model.
Rike Lorenz, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Uwe Ulbrich, Marc Hanewinkel, and Benjamin Schmitz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2179–2196, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2179-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2179-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Tree fall events have an impact on forests and transport systems. Our study explored tree fall in relation to wind and other weather conditions. We used tree fall data along railway lines and ERA5 and radar meteorological data to build a logistic regression model. We found that high and prolonged wind speeds, wet conditions, and high air density increase tree fall risk. These factors might change in the changing climate, which in return will change risks for trees, forests and transport.
Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Virpi Kollanus, Timo Lanki, Juha Jokisalo, Risto Kosonen, David S. Richardson, and Kirsti Jylhä
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1865–1879, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1865-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1865-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The skill of hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in forecasting heat wave days, defined as periods with the 5 d moving average temperature exceeding its local summer 90th percentile over Europe 1 to 4 weeks ahead, is examined. Forecasts of heat wave days show potential for warning of heat risk 1 to 2 weeks in advance and enhanced accuracy in forecasting prolonged heat waves up to 3 weeks ahead, when the heat wave had already begun before forecast issuance.
Cees de Valk and Henk van den Brink
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1769–1788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1769-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1769-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Estimates of the risk posed by rare and catastrophic weather events are often derived from relatively short measurement records, which renders them highly uncertain. We investigate if (and by how much) this uncertainty can be reduced by making use of large datasets of simulated weather. More specifically, we focus on coastal flood hazard in the Netherlands and on the challenge of estimating the once in 10 million years coastal water level and wind stress as accurately as possible.
Felix Erdmann and Dieter Roel Poelman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1751–1768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1751-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1751-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides detailed insight into the thunderstorm characteristics associated with abrupt changes in the lightning activity of a thunderstorm – lightning jumps (LJs) and lightning dives (LDs) – using geostationary satellite observations. Thunderstorms exhibiting one or multiple LJs or LDs feature characteristics similar to severe thunderstorms. Storms with multiple LJs contain strong convective updrafts and are prone to produce high rain rates, large hail, or tornadoes.
Jinfang Yin, Feng Li, Mingxin Li, Rudi Xia, Xinghua Bao, Jisong Sun, and Xudong Liang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1719–1735, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1719-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1719-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A persistent severe rainfall event occurred over North China in July 2023, which was regarded as one of the most extreme episodes globally during that year. The extreme rainfall was significantly underestimated by forecasters at that time. Flooding from this event affected 1.3 million people, causing severe human casualties and economic losses. We examined the convective initiation and subsequent persistent heavy rainfall based on simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model.
Ilona Láng-Ritter, Terhi Kristiina Laurila, Antti Mäkelä, Hilppa Gregow, and Victoria Anne Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1697–1717, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1697-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1697-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a classification method for extratropical cyclones and windstorms and show their impacts on Finland's electricity grid by analysing the 92 most damaging windstorms (2005–2018). The south-west- and north-west-arriving windstorms cause the most damage to the power grid. The most relevant parameters for damage are the wind gust speed and extent of wind gusts. Windstorms are more frequent and damaging in autumn and winter, but weaker wind speeds in summer also cause significant damage.
Joseph W. Gallear, Marcelo Valadares Galdos, Marcelo Zeri, and Andrew Hartley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1521–1541, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1521-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1521-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In Brazil, drought is of national concern and can have major consequences for agriculture. Here, we determine how to develop forecasts for drought stress on vegetation health using machine learning. Results aim to inform future developments in operational drought monitoring at the National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN) in Brazil. This information is essential for disaster preparedness and planning of future actions to support areas affected by drought.
Thomas Schwitalla, Lisa Jach, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Kirsten Warrach-Sagi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1405–1424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1405-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1405-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
During recent decades, Europe has experienced increasing periods of severe drought and heatwave. To provide an overview of how land-surface conditions shape land–atmosphere (LA) coupling, the interannual LA coupling strength variability for the summer seasons of 1991–2022 is investigated by means of ERA5 data. The results clearly reflect ongoing climate change by a shift in the coupling relationships towards reinforced heating and drying by the land surface.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Roberto Fray Silva, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Antonio Mauro Saraiva, Alexandre Cláudio Botazzo Delbem, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antonio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1387–1404, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1387-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1387-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study applies climate extreme indices to assess climate risks to food security. Using an explainable machine learning analysis, key climate indices affecting maize and soybean yields in Brazil were identified. Results reveal the temporal sensitivity of these indices and critical yield loss thresholds, informing policy and adaptation strategies.
Juan F. Dueñas, Edda Kunze, Huiying Li, and Matthias C. Rillig
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1377–1386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1377-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1377-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the potential of adding mixtures composed of minimum dosages of several popular amendment types to soil. Our goal was to increase the resistance of agricultural soil to drought stress. We found that adding mixtures of three to five amendment types increased the capacity of soil to retain water, reduced soil erosion, and increased fungal abundance while buffering soil from drastic changes in pH. More research is encouraged to validate this approach.
Soledad Collazo, David Barriopedro, Ricardo García-Herrera, and Santiago Beguería
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-792, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-792, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In the 2023/24 season, Rio de Janeiro experienced record-breaking heatwaves linked to climate change and El Niño. Our study shows global warming made these extreme temperatures at least 2°C hotter than in pre-industrial times. Heat-related deaths surged, with climate change contributing to 1 in 3 fatalities during the peak event. Without adaptation, future heatwaves will claim even more lives. This underscores the urgent need for policies to mitigate climate impacts from escalating heat threats.
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 843–856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our aim is to characterize the observed evolution of compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system. The frequency of compound events exhibits a decrease over the 1950–2022 period, which is likely due to a decrease in cold days. Large-scale atmospheric circulation is an important driver of compound event occurrence and has likely contributed to the decrease in cold days, while we cannot draw conclusions on its influence on the decrease in compound events.
Fabio Dioguardi, Giovanni Chiodini, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 657–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present results of non-volcanic-gas (CO2) hazard assessment at the Mefite d’Ansanto area (Italy) where a cold-gas stream, which has already been lethal to humans and animals, forms in the valleys surrounding the emission zone. We took the uncertainty related to the gas emission and meteorological conditions into account. Results include maps of CO2 concentrations at defined probability levels and the probability of overcoming specified CO2 concentrations over specified time intervals.
Sonja Szymczak, Frederick Bott, Vigile Marie Fabella, and Katharina Fricke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 683–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the correlation between heavy-rainfall events and three associated natural hazards along the German rail network using GIS analyses and random-effects logistic models. The results show that 23 % of floods, 14 % of gravitational mass movements, and 2 % of tree fall events between 2017 and 2020 occurred after a heavy-rainfall event, and the probability of occurrence of flood and tree fall events significantly increased. This study contributes to more resilient rail transport.
Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 675–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall comprises a major hydrohazard for New Zealand and is commonly associated with atmospheric rivers – narrow plumes of very high atmospheric moisture transport. Here, we focus on improved forecasting of these events by testing a forecasting tool previously applied to similar situations in western Europe. However, our results for New Zealand suggest the performance of this forecasting tool may vary depending on geographical setting.
Tiago M. Ferreira, Ricardo M. Trigo, Tomás H. Gaspar, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 609–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the synoptic evolution associated with the occurrence of an atmospheric river that led to a 24 h record-breaking extreme precipitation event (120.3 mm) in Lisbon, Portugal, on 13 December 2022. The synoptic background allowed the formation, on 10 December, of an atmospheric river associated with a deep extratropical cyclone and with a high moisture content and an inflow of moisture, due to the warm conveyor belt, throughout its life cycle. The system made landfall on 12 December.
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim G. Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 541–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Europe frequently experiences compound events, with major impacts. We investigate these events’ interactions, characteristics, and changes over time, focusing on socio-economic impacts in Germany and central Europe. Highlighting 2018’s extreme events, this study reveals impacts on water, agriculture, and forests and stresses the need for impact-focused definitions and better future risk quantification to support adaptation planning.
Lixin Song, Feifei Shen, Zhixin He, Dongmei Xu, Aiqing Shu, and Jiajun Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-203, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-203, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
When retrieving hydrometeors from reflectivity, there are two methods to allocate hydrometeor types: temperature-based and background hydrometer-dependent schemes. The temperature-based method divides hydrometeor proportions based on the background temperature, while the other scheme calculates average weights of each hydrometeor in various reflectivity intervals from background fields. The blending scheme adaptively combines these methods and is found to improve precipitation forecast accuracy.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The use of numerical weather prediction models enables the forecasting of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated in this study. This leads to the improvement of the associated near-surface variables of the model during the first hours of the forecast. Examples are provided for a sea breeze case during a heatwave and a fog episode.
Francisco Javier Acero, Manuel Antón, Alejandro Jesús Pérez Aparicio, Nieves Bravo-Paredes, Víctor Manuel Sánchez Carrasco, María Cruz Gallego, José Agustín García, Marcelino Núñez, Irene Tovar, Javier Vaquero-Martínez, and José Manuel Vaquero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 305–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The month of June 1925 was found to be exceptional in the southwest interior of the Iberian Peninsula due to the large number of thunderstorms and their significant impacts, with serious losses of human lives and material resources. We analyzed this event from different, complementary perspectives: reconstruction of the history of the events from newspapers, study of monthly meteorological variables of the longest series available, and the analysis of the meteorological synoptic situation.
Tiberiu-Eugen Antofie, Stefano Luoni, Aloïs Tilloy, Andrea Sibilia, Sandro Salari, Gustav Eklund, Davide Rodomonti, Christos Bountzouklis, and Christina Corbane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 287–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This is the first study that uses spatial patterns (clusters/hotspots) and meta-analysis in order to identify the regions at a European level at risk of multi-hazards. The findings point out the socioeconomic dimension as a determining factor in the potential risk of multi-hazards. The outcome provides valuable input for the disaster risk management policy support and will assist national authorities on the implementation of a multi-hazard approach in national risk assessment preparation.
Joona Cornér, Clément Bouvier, Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 207–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Classification reduces the considerable variability between extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and thus simplifies studying their representation in climate models and changes in the future climate. In this paper we present an objective classification of ETCs using measures of ETC intensity. This is motivated by the aim of finding a set of ETC intensity measures which together comprehensively describe both the dynamical and impact-relevant nature of ETC intensity.
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The present study addresses the predictability of heat waves at subseasonal timescales in West African cities over the period 2001–2020. Two models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office models, were evaluated using two reanalyses: ERA5 and MERRA. The results suggest that at subseasonal timescales, the forecast models provide a better forecast than climatology, but the hit rate and false alarm rate are sub-optimal.
Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Mortimer M. Müller, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Sarah Veit, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 77–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research, involving 22 European scientists, investigated drought and heat impacts on forests in 2018–2022. Findings reveal that climate extremes are intensifying, with central Europe being most severely impacted. The southern region showed resilience due to historical drought exposure, while northern and Alpine areas experienced emerging or minimal impacts. The study highlights the need for region-specific strategies, improved data collection, and sustainable practices to safeguard forests.
Georgy Ayzel and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 41–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting rainfall over the next hour is an essential feature of early warning systems. Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a powerful alternative to conventional nowcasting technologies, but it still struggles to adequately predict impact-relevant heavy rainfall. We think that DL could do much better if the training tasks were defined more specifically and that such specification presents an opportunity to better align the output of nowcasting models with actual user requirements.
Monica Ionita, Petru Vaideanu, Bogdan Antonescu, Catalin Roibu, Qiyun Ma, and Viorica Nagavciuc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4683–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Eastern Europe's heat wave history is explored from 1885 to 2023, with a focus on pre-1960 events. The study reveals two periods with more frequent and intense heat waves (HWs): 1920s–1960s and 1980s–present. The research highlights the importance of a long-term perspective, revealing that extreme heat events have occurred throughout the entire study period, and it emphasizes the combined influence of climate change and natural variations on increasing HW severity.
Tristan Shepherd, Frederick Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4473–4505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A historic derecho in the USA is presented. The 29 June 2012 derecho caused more than 20 deaths and millions of US dollars of damage. We use a regional climate model to understand how model fidelity changes under different initial conditions. We find changes drive different convective conditions, resulting in large variation in the simulated hazards. The variation using different reanalysis data shows that framing these results in the context of contemporary and future climate is a challenge.
Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, and Olivier Nuissier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-208, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-208, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates the relationship between changes in weather forecasts and predictability, which has so far been considered weak. By focusing on the persistence of weather scenarios over successive forecasts, we found that it significantly affects the reliability of forecasts.
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3869–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past hail days in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new time series reveals a significant increase in hail day occurrences over the last 7 decades. We link this trend to increases in moisture and instability variables in the models. This time series can now be used to unravel the complexities of Swiss hail occurrence and to understand what drives its year-to-year variability.
Marc Lemus-Canovas, Sergi Gonzalez-Herrero, Laura Trapero, Anna Albalat, Damian Insua-Costa, Martin Senande-Rivera, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-192, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-192, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the 2022 heatwaves in the Pyrenees, examining the factors that contributed to their intensity and distribution. The June event was driven by strong winds that created uneven temperature patterns, while the July heatwave featured calmer conditions and more uniform temperatures. Human-driven climate change has made these heatwaves more severe compared to the past. This research helps us better understand how climate change affects extreme weather in mountainous regions.
Diego Saúl Carrió, Vincenzo Mazzarella, and Rossella Ferretti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-177, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Populated coastal regions in the Mediterranean are known to be severely affected by extreme weather events that are initiated over maritime regions. These weather events are known to pose a serious problem in terms of numerical predictability. Different Data Assimilation techniques are used in this study with the main aim of enhancing short-range forecasts of two challenging severe weather events.
Thomas Loridan and Nicolas Bruneau
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3253, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3253, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical Cyclone (TC) risk models have been used by the insurance industry to quantify occurrence and severity risk since the 90s. To date these models are mostly built from backward looking statistics and portray risk under a static view of the climate. We here introduce a novel approach, based on machine learning, that allows sampling of climate variability when assessing TC risk globally. This is of particular importance when computing forward looking views of TC risk.
Herijaona Hani-Roge Hundilida Randriatsara, Eva Holtanova, Karim Rizwan, Hassen Babaousmail, Mirindra Finaritra Tanteliniaina Rabezanahary, Kokou Romaric Posset, Donnata Alupot, and Brian Odhiambo Ayugi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-191, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-191, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought (duration, frequency, severity, intensity) over Madagascar during 1981–2022 by using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3, -6 and -12). Additionally, the impact of drought on vegetation over the studied area was assessed based on the relationship evaluation between SPI and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) during 2000–2022.
Xiaowei Zhao, Tianzeng Yang, Hongbo Zhang, Tian Lan, Chaowei Xue, Tongfang Li, Zhaoxia Ye, Zhifang Yang, and Yurou Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3479–3495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To effectively track and identify droughts, we developed a novel integrated drought index that combines the effects of precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture on drought. After comparison and verification, the integrated drought index shows superior performance compared to a single meteorological drought index or agricultural drought index in terms of drought identification.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological loss index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high-impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
Jannick Fischer, Pieter Groenemeijer, Alois Holzer, Monika Feldmann, Katharina Schröer, Francesco Battaglioli, Lisa Schielicke, Tomáš Púčik, Christoph Gatzen, Bogdan Antonescu, and the TIM Partners
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2798, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2798, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Strong thunderstorms have been studied mainly over flat terrain and in computer simulations in the past. However, they are particularly frequent near mountain ranges, which emphasizes the need to study storms near mountains. This article gives an overview about our existing knowledge on this topic and presents plans for a large European field campaign with the goals to fill these knowledge gaps, validate tools for thunderstorm warnings, and improve numerical weather prediction near mountains.
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3267–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The train effect is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall and sometimes floods and are reported in North America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains associated with Cyprus lows were identified by radar images and were found within the cold sector south of the low center and in the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km; last 1–3 h; and yield 35 mm of rainfall up to 60 mm.
Lou Brett, Christopher J. White, Daniela I.V. Domeisen, Bart van den Hurk, Philip Ward, and Jakob Zscheischler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Compound events, where multiple weather or climate hazards occur together, pose significant risks to both society and the environment. These events, like simultaneous wind and rain, can have more severe impacts than single hazards. Our review of compound event research from 2012–2022 reveals a rise in studies, especially on events that occur concurrently, hot and dry events and compounding flooding. The review also highlights opportunities for research in the coming years.
Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A computer model that simulates the climate of southeastern Australia is shown here to represent extreme wind events associated with convective storms. This is useful as it allows us to investigate possible future changes in the occurrences of these events, and we find in the year 2050 that our model simulates a decrease in the number of occurrences. However, the model also simulates too many events in the historical climate compared with observations, so these future changes are uncertain.
Katharina Küpfer, Alexandre Tuel, and Michael Kunz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using loss data, we assess when and how single and multiple types of meteorological extremes (river floods and heavy rainfall events, windstorms and convective gusts, and hail). We find that the combination of several types of hazards clusters robustly on a seasonal scale, whereas only some single hazard types occur in clusters. This can be associated with higher losses compared to isolated events. We argue for the relevance of jointly considering multiple types of hazards.
Hofit Shachaf, Colin Price, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Cliff Mass
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3035–3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have used the temperature and relative humidity sensors in smartphones to estimate the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an important atmospheric parameter closely linked to fuel moisture and wildfire risk. Our analysis for two severe wildfire case studies in Israel and Portugal shows the potential for using smartphone data to compliment the regular weather station network while also providing high spatial resolution of the VPD index.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2939–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Associating extreme weather events with changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored two ways these relationships can be investigated: one using a more common method and one relying solely on long-running records of meteorological observations.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2793–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called ensemble prediction. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity and space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitation.
Xiaoxiang Guan, Dung Viet Nguyen, Paul Voit, Bruno Merz, Maik Heistermann, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-143, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-143, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated a multi-site stochastic regional weather generator (nsRWG) for its ability to capture the cross-scale extremity of high precipitation events (HPEs) in Germany. We generated 100 realizations of 72 years of daily synthetic precipitation data. The performance was assessed using WEI and xWEI indices, which measure event extremity across spatio-temporal scales. Results show nsRWG simulates well the extremity patterns of HPEs, though it overestimates short-duration, small-extent events.
Joy Ommer, Jessica Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed to be beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe-weather forecasts and warnings need to advance in order to trigger our imagination of what might happen and enable us to start preparing.
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2541–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents an open-source model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops and grapevines after hailstorms in Switzerland based on radar, agricultural land use data, and insurance damage reports. The model performs best at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevine and in the main production areas. Highlighting performance trade-offs and the relevance of user needs, the study is a first step towards the assessment of risk and damage for crops in Switzerland.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2511–2522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
EUCLID's lightning data unveil distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. The daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
Nicola Loglisci, Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2495–2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the meteo-hydrological features of the 27 and 28 August 2023 event that occurred in Genoa. Rainfall observations were made using rain gauge networks based on either official networks or citizen science networks. The merged analysis stresses the spatial variability in the precipitation, which cannot be captured by the current spatial density of authoritative stations. Results show that at minimal distances the variations in cumulated rainfall over a sub-hourly duration are significant.
Cited articles
Alexander, D.: Volcanic ash in the atmosphere and risks for civil aviation: A study in European crisis management, Int. J. Disast. Risk Sc., 4, 9–19, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-013-0003-0, 2013. a
Andersson, C., Langner, J., and Bergström, R.: Interannual variation and trends in air pollution over Europe due to climate variability during 1958–2001 simulated with a regional CTM coupled to the ERA40 reanalysis, Tellus B, 59, 77–98, 2007. a
Andersson, C., Bergström, R., Bennet, C., Robertson, L., Thomas, M., Korhonen, H., Lehtinen, K. E. J., and Kokkola, H.: MATCH-SALSA – Multi-scale Atmospheric Transport and CHemistry model coupled to the SALSA aerosol microphysics model – Part 1: Model description and evaluation, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 171–189, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-171-2015, 2015. a
Arason, P., Petersen, G. N., and Bjornsson, H.: Observations of the altitude of the volcanic plume during the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, April–May 2010, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 3, 9–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-3-9-2011, 2011. a, b
Beckett, F. M., Witham, C. S., Leadbetter, S. J., Crocker, R., Webster, H. N., Hort, M. C., Jones, A. R., Devenish, B. J., and Thomson, D. J.: Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling at the London VAAC: A Review of Developments since the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull Volcano Ash Cloud, Atmosphere, 11, 352, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040352, 2020. a
Bolić, T. and Sivčev, Z.: Eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland: Experience of European Air Traffic Management, Transport. Res. Rec., 2214, 136–143, https://doi.org/10.3141/2214-17, 2011. a
Bugliaro, L., Piontek, D., Kox, S., Schmidl, M., Mayer, B., Müller, R., Vázquez-Navarro, M., Peters, D. M., Grainger, R. G., Gasteiger, J., and Kar, J.: Combining radiative transfer calculations and a neural network for the remote sensing of volcanic ash using MSG/SEVIRI, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-270, in review, 2021. a
Buizza, R.: Introduction to the special issue on “25 years of ensemble forecasting”, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 145, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3370, 2019. a
Chen, F. and Dudhia, J.: Coupling an advanced land surface–hydrology model with the Penn state–NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part I: Model implementation and sensitivity, Mon. Weather Rev., 129, 569–585, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<0569:CAALSH>2.0.CO;2, 2001. a
Clarkson, R. J., Majewicz, E. J. E., and Mack, P.: A re-evaluation of the 2010 quantitative understanding of the effects volcanic ash has on gas turbine engines, J. Aerospace Eng., 230, 2274–2291, https://doi.org/10.1177/0954410015623372, 2016. a, b, c
Dacre, H. F., Harvey, N. J., Webley, P. W., and Morton, D.: How accurate are volcanic ash simulations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption?, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 3534–3547, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024265, 2016. a, b, c, d
de Laat, A., Vazquez-Navarro, M., Theys, N., and Stammes, P.: Analysis of properties of the 19 February 2018 volcanic eruption of Mount Sinabung in S5P/TROPOMI and Himawari-8 satellite data, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1203–1217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1203-2020, 2020. a
EUROCONTROL: Ash-cloud of April and May 2010: Impact on Air Traffic, Statfor/doc394 v1.0 28/6/10, EUROCONTROL/CND/STATFOR, available at: https://www.eurocontrol.int/publication/ash-cloud-april-and-may-2010-impact-air-traffic (last access: 12 February 2021), 2010. a
Folch, A., Costa, A., and Macedonio, G.: FPLUME-1.0: An integral volcanic plume model accounting for ash aggregation, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 431–450, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-431-2016, 2016. a
Forster, C., Stohl, A., and Seibert, P.: Parameterization of convective transport in a Lagrangian particle dispersion model and its evaluation, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 46, 403–422, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAM2470.1, 2007. a
Francis, P. N., Cooke, M. C., and Saunders, R. W.: Retrieval of physical properties of volcanic ash using Meteosat: A case study from the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D00U09, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016788, 2012. a, b
Fundel, V. J., Fleischhut, N., Herzog, S. M., Göber, M., and Hagedorn, R.: Promoting the use of probabilistic weather forecasts through a dialogue between scientists, developers and end-users, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 145, 210–231, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3482, 2019. a, b
Grell, G. A. and Freitas, S. R.: A scale and aerosol aware stochastic convective parameterization for weather and air quality modeling, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5233–5250, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5233-2014, 2014. a
Grell, G. A., Peckham, S. E., Schmitz, R., McKeen, S. A., Frost, G., Skamarock, W. C., and Eder, B.: Fully coupled “online” chemistry within the WRF model, Atmos. Environ., 39, 6957–6975, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2005.04.027, 2005. a
Guffanti, M., Casadevall, T. J., and Budding, K.: Encounters of aircraft with volcanic ash clouds; A compilation of known incidents, 1953–2009, US geological survey data series 545, US Department of the Interior and US Geological Survey, available at: http://pubs.usgs.gov/ds/545 (last access: 4 October 2021), plus 4 appendixes including the compilation database, 2010. a
Guth, J., Josse, B., Marécal, V., Joly, M., and Hamer, P.: First implementation of secondary inorganic aerosols in the MOCAGE version R2.15.0 chemistry transport model, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 137–160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-137-2016, 2016. a, b
Harvey, N. J. and Dacre, H. F.: Spatial evaluation of volcanic ash forecasts using satellite observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 861–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-861-2016, 2016. a
Hirtl, M., Stuefer, M., Arnold, D., Grell, G., Maurer, C., Natali, S., Scherllin-Pirscher, B., and Webley, P.: The effects of simulating volcanic aerosol radiative feedbacks with WRF-Chem during the Eyjafjallajökull eruption, April and May 2010, Atmos. Environ., 198, 194–206, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2018.10.058, 2019. a
Hirtl, M., Arnold, D., Baro, R., Brenot, H., Coltelli, M., Eschbacher, K., Hard-Stremayer, H., Lipok, F., Maurer, C., Meinhard, D., Mona, L., Mulder, M. D., Papagiannopoulos, N., Pernsteiner, M., Plu, M., Robertson, L., Rokitansky, C.-H., Scherllin-Pirscher, B., Sievers, K., Sofiev, M., Som de Cerff, W., Steinheimer, M., Stuefer, M., Theys, N., Uppstu, A., Wagenaar, S., Winkler, R., Wotawa, G., Zobl, F., and Zopp, R.: A volcanic-hazard demonstration exercise to assess and mitigate the impacts of volcanic ash clouds on civil and military aviation, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1719–1739, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1719-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d
Iacono, M. J., Delamere, J. S., Mlawer, E. J., Shephard, M. W., Clough, S. A., and Collins, W. D.: Radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases: Calculations with the AER radiative transfer models, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D13103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD009944, 2008. a
IATA: IATA annual report 2010, Tech. Rep., International Air Transport Association, available at: https://www.iata.org/contentassets/c81222d96c9a4e0bb4ff6ced0126f0bb/iataannualreport2010.pdf (last access: 4 October 2021), 2010. a
Kox, S., Bugliaro, L., and Ostler, A.: Retrieval of cirrus cloud optical thickness and top altitude from geostationary remote sensing, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 3233–3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3233-2014, 2014. a
Kristiansen, N. I., Stohl, A., Prata, A. J., Bukowiecki, N., Dacre, H., Eckhardt, S., Henne, S., Hort, M. C., Johnson, B. T., Marenco, F., Neininger, B., Reitebuch, O., Seibert, P., Thomson, D. J., Webster, H. N., and Weinzierl, B.: Performance assessment of a volcanic ash transport model mini-ensemble used for inverse modeling of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016844, 2012. a, b, c, d, e
Leutbecher, M., Lock, S.-J., Ollinaho, P., Lang, S. T. K., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Bonavita, M., Christensen, H. M., Diamantakis, M., Dutra, E., English, S., Fisher, M., Forbes, R. M., Goddard, J., Haiden, T., Hogan, R. J., Juricke, S., Lawrence, H., MacLeod, D., Magnusson, L., Malardel, S., Massart, S., Sandu, I., Smolarkiewicz, P. K., Subramanian, A., Vitart, F., Wedi, N., and Weisheimer, A.: Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: state of the art and future vision, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 143, 2315–2339, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3094, 2017. a
Marenco, F., Johnson, B., Turnbull, K., Newman, S., Haywood, J., Webster, H., and Ricketts, H.: Airborne lidar observations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash plume, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, D00U05, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016396, 2011. a, b, c, d
Mastin, L. G.: A user-friendly one-dimensional model for wet volcanic plumes, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 8, Q03014, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GC001455, 2007. a, b
Mastin, L. G., Guffanti, M., Servranckx, R., Webley, P., Barsotti, S., Dean, K., Durant, A., Ewert, J. W., Neri, A., Rose, W. I., Schneider, D., Siebert, L., Stunder, B., Swanson, G., Tupper, A., Volentik, A., and Waythomas, C. F.: A multidisciplinary effort to assign realistic source parameters to models of volcanic ash-cloud transport and dispersion during eruptions, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 186, 10–21, 2009. a, b, c
Morrison, H., Thompson, G., and Tatarskii, V.: Impact of cloud microphysics on the development of trailing stratiform precipitation in a simulated squall line: Comparison of one- and two-moment schemes, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 991–1007, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2556.1, 2009. a
Nakanishi, M. and Niino, H.: An improved Mellor-Yamada level-3 model with condensation physics: Its design and verification, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 112, 1–31, https://doi.org/10.1023/B:BOUN.0000020164.04146.98, 2004. a
Osinski, R. and Bouttier, F.: Short-range probabilistic forecasting of convective risks for aviation based on a lagged-average-forecast ensemble approach, Meteorol. Appl., 25, 105–118, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1674, 2018. a
Pavolonis, M. J., Heidinger, A. K., and Sieglaff, J.: Automated retrievals of volcanic ash and dust cloud properties from upwelling infrared measurements, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 1436–1458, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50173, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50173, 2013. a
Piontek, D., Bugliaro, L., Kar, J., Schumann, U., Marenco, F., Plu, M., and Voigt, C.: The New Volcanic Ash Satellite Retrieval VACOS Using MSG/SEVIRI and Artificial Neural Networks: 2. Validation, Remote Sens., 13, 3128, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13163128, 2021a. a, b
Piontek, D., Bugliaro, L., Schmidl, M., Zhou, D. K., and Voigt, C.: The New Volcanic Ash Satellite Retrieval VACOS Using MSG/SEVIRI and Artificial Neural Networks: 1. Development, Remote Sens., 13, 3112, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13163112, 2021b. a, b
Piontek, D., Hornby, A., Voigt, C., Bugliaro, L., and Gasteiger, J.: Determination of complex refractive indices and optical properties of volcanic ashes in the thermal infrared based on generic petrological compositions, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 411, 107 174, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2021.107174, 2021c. a
Piscini, A., Picchiani, M., Chini, M., Corradini, S., Merucci, L., Del Frate, F., and Stramondo, S.: A neural network approach for the simultaneous retrieval of volcanic ash parameters and SO2 using MODIS data, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 4023–4047, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-4023-2014, 2014. a
Pisso, I., Sollum, E., Grythe, H., Kristiansen, N. I., Cassiani, M., Eckhardt, S., Arnold, D., Morton, D., Thompson, R. L., Groot Zwaaftink, C. D., Evangeliou, N., Sodemann, H., Haimberger, L., Henne, S., Brunner, D., Burkhart, J. F., Fouilloux, A., Brioude, J., Philipp, A., Seibert, P., and Stohl, A.: The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART version 10.4, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4955–4997, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4955-2019, 2019. a
Prata, A. J.: Radiative transfer calculations for volcanic ash clouds, Geophys. Res. Lett., 16, 1293–1296, 1989b. a
Prata, A. J. and Grant, I. F.: Retrieval of microphysical and morphological properties of volcanic ash plumes from satellite data: Application to Mt Ruapehu, New Zealand, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 2153–2179, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712757615, 2001. a
Prata, A. J. and Prata, A. T.: Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash concentrations determined using Spin Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager measurements, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D00U23, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016800, 2012. a, b, c
Prata, A. T., Dacre, H. F., Irvine, E. A., Mathieu, E., Shine, K. P., and Clarkson, R. J.: Calculating and communicating ensemble-based volcanic ash dosage and concentration risk for aviation, Meteorol. Appl., 26, 253–266, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1759, 2019. a, b, c
Pugnaghi, S., Guerrieri, L., Corradini, S., Merucci, L., and Arvani, B.: A new simplified approach for simultaneous retrieval of SO2 and ash content of tropospheric volcanic clouds: an application to the Mt Etna volcano, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 1315–1327, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-1315-2013, 2013. a
Robertson, L., Langner, J., and Engardt, M.: An Eulerian Limited-Area Atmospheric Transport Model, J. Appl. Meteor., 38, 190–210, 1999. a
Rokitansky, C.-H., Eschbacher, K., Zobl, F., and Zopp, R.: Benefit Assessment Report on new integrated prototype products and impact on European airspace, EUNADICS-AV report, deliverable D38, available at: https://archief06.archiefweb.eu/archives/archiefweb/2020111911 2158/http://www.eunadics.eu/sites/default/files/2019-10/EUNADICS-D38-Benefit Assessment Report on new integrated prototype products and impact on European airspace.pdf (last access: 4 October 2021), 2019. a, b
Schmetz, J., Pili, P., Tjemkes, S., Just, D., Kerkmann, J., Rota, S., and Ratier, A.: An Introduction to Meteosat Second Generation (MSG), B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 83, 977–992, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2002)083<0977:AITMSG>2.3.CO;2, 2002. a
Schumann, U., Weinzierl, B., Reitebuch, O., Schlager, H., Minikin, A., Forster, C., Baumann, R., Sailer, T., Graf, K., Mannstein, H., Voigt, C., Rahm, S., Simmet, R., Scheibe, M., Lichtenstern, M., Stock, P., Rüba, H., Schäuble, D., Tafferner, A., Rautenhaus, M., Gerz, T., Ziereis, H., Krautstrunk, M., Mallaun, C., Gayet, J.-F., Lieke, K., Kandler, K., Ebert, M., Weinbruch, S., Stohl, A., Gasteiger, J., Groß, S., Freudenthaler, V., Wiegner, M., Ansmann, A., Tesche, M., Olafsson, H., and Sturm, K.: Airborne observations of the Eyjafjalla volcano ash cloud over Europe during air space closure in April and May 2010, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 2245–2279, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-2245-2011, 2011. a, b
Steinheimer, M., Gonzaga-Lopez, C., Kern, C., Kerschbaum, M., Strauss, L., Eschbacher, K., Mayr, M., and Rokitansky, C.-H.: Air traffic management and weather: the potential of an integrated approach, in: INAIR 2016, edited by: Hromádka, M., 120–126, EDIS – Publishing Centre of University of Žilina, Vienna, Austria, available at: https://www.inair.uniza.sk/obsah/zbornik/INAIR_2016_ISSN.pdf (last access: 4 October 2021), 2016. a
Stohl, A., Hittenberger, M., and Wotawa, G.: Validation of the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART against large scale tracer experiment data, Atmos. Environ., 32, 4245–4264, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1352-2310(98)00184-8, 1998.
a
Stohl, A., Forster, C., Frank, A., Seibert, P., and Wotawa, G.: Technical note: The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART version 6.2, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 2461–2474, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-5-2461-2005, 2005. a
Stohl, A., Prata, A. J., Eckhardt, S., Clarisse, L., Durant, A., Henne, S., Kristiansen, N. I., Minikin, A., Schumann, U., Seibert, P., Stebel, K., Thomas, H. E., Thorsteinsson, T., Tørseth, K., and Weinzierl, B.: Determination of time- and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 4333–4351, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-4333-2011, 2011. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i
Strandgren, J., Bugliaro, L., Sehnke, F., and Schröder, L.: Cirrus cloud retrieval with MSG/SEVIRI using artificial neural networks, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 3547–3573, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-3547-2017, 2017. a
Stuefer, M., Freitas, S. R., Grell, G., Webley, P., Peckham, S., McKeen, S. A., and Egan, S. D.: Inclusion of ash and SO2 emissions from volcanic eruptions in WRF-Chem: development and some applications, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 457–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-457-2013, 2013. a
Winker, D. M., Vaughan, M. A., Omar, A., Hu, Y., Powell, K. A., Liu, Z., Hunt, W. H., and Young, S. A.: Overview of the CALIPSO Mission and CALIOP Data Processing Algorithms, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 26, 2310–2323, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JTECHA1281.1, 2009. a
Short summary
Past volcanic eruptions that spread out ash over large areas, like Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, forced the cancellation of thousands of flights and had huge economic consequences.
In this article, an international team in the H2020 EU-funded EUNADICS-AV project has designed a probabilistic model approach to quantify ash concentrations. This approach is evaluated against measurements, and its potential use to mitigate the impact of future large-scale eruptions is discussed.
Past volcanic eruptions that spread out ash over large areas, like Eyjafjallajökull in 2010,...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint