Articles | Volume 21, issue 10
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2973–2992, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021

Special issue: Analysis and prediction of natural airborne aviation hazards

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2973–2992, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021
Research article
 | Highlight paper
05 Oct 2021
Research article  | Highlight paper | 05 Oct 2021

An ensemble of state-of-the-art ash dispersion models: towards probabilistic forecasts to increase the resilience of air traffic against volcanic eruptions

Matthieu Plu et al.

Related authors

Modelling the volcanic ash plume from Eyjafjallajökull eruption (May 2010) over Europe: evaluation of the benefit of source term improvements and of the assimilation of aerosol measurements
Matthieu Plu, Guillaume Bigeard, Bojan Sič, Emanuele Emili, Luca Bugliaro, Laaziz El Amraoui, Jonathan Guth, Beatrice Josse, Lucia Mona, and Dennis Piontek
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3731–3747, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3731-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3731-2021, 2021
Short summary
EUNADICS-AV early warning system dedicated to supporting aviation in the case of a crisis from natural airborne hazards and radionuclide clouds
Hugues Brenot, Nicolas Theys, Lieven Clarisse, Jeroen van Gent, Daniel R. Hurtmans, Sophie Vandenbussche, Nikolaos Papagiannopoulos, Lucia Mona, Timo Virtanen, Andreas Uppstu, Mikhail Sofiev, Luca Bugliaro, Margarita Vázquez-Navarro, Pascal Hedelt, Michelle Maree Parks, Sara Barsotti, Mauro Coltelli, William Moreland, Simona Scollo, Giuseppe Salerno, Delia Arnold-Arias, Marcus Hirtl, Tuomas Peltonen, Juhani Lahtinen, Klaus Sievers, Florian Lipok, Rolf Rüfenacht, Alexander Haefele, Maxime Hervo, Saskia Wagenaar, Wim Som de Cerff, Jos de Laat, Arnoud Apituley, Piet Stammes, Quentin Laffineur, Andy Delcloo, Robertson Lennart, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Arturo Vargas, Markus Kerschbaum, Christian Resch, Raimund Zopp, Matthieu Plu, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Michel Van Roozendael, and Gerhard Wotawa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3367–3405, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3367-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3367-2021, 2021
Short summary
A methodology to obtain model-error covariances due to the discretization scheme from the parametric Kalman filter perspective
Olivier Pannekoucke, Richard Ménard, Mohammad El Aabaribaoune, and Matthieu Plu
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-1-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-1-2021, 2021
Short summary
A volcanic-hazard demonstration exercise to assess and mitigate the impacts of volcanic ash clouds on civil and military aviation
Marcus Hirtl, Delia Arnold, Rocio Baro, Hugues Brenot, Mauro Coltelli, Kurt Eschbacher, Helmut Hard-Stremayer, Florian Lipok, Christian Maurer, Dieter Meinhard, Lucia Mona, Marie D. Mulder, Nikolaos Papagiannopoulos, Michael Pernsteiner, Matthieu Plu, Lennart Robertson, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, Klaus Sievers, Mikhail Sofiev, Wim Som de Cerff, Martin Steinheimer, Martin Stuefer, Nicolas Theys, Andreas Uppstu, Saskia Wagenaar, Roland Winkler, Gerhard Wotawa, Fritz Zobl, and Raimund Zopp
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1719–1739, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1719-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1719-2020, 2020
Short summary
Comparison of tropospheric NO2 columns from MAX-DOAS retrievals and regional air quality model simulations
Anne-Marlene Blechschmidt, Joaquim Arteta, Adriana Coman, Lyana Curier, Henk Eskes, Gilles Foret, Clio Gielen, Francois Hendrick, Virginie Marécal, Frédérik Meleux, Jonathan Parmentier, Enno Peters, Gaia Pinardi, Ankie J. M. Piters, Matthieu Plu, Andreas Richter, Arjo Segers, Mikhail Sofiev, Álvaro M. Valdebenito, Michel Van Roozendael, Julius Vira, Tim Vlemmix, and John P. Burrows
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2795–2823, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2795-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2795-2020, 2020
Short summary

Related subject area

Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Hotspots for warm and dry summers in Romania
Viorica Nagavciuc, Patrick Scholz, and Monica Ionita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1347–1369, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1347-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1347-2022, 2022
Short summary
Development of a forecast-oriented kilometre-resolution ocean–atmosphere coupled system for western Europe and sensitivity study for a severe weather situation
Joris Pianezze, Jonathan Beuvier, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Guillaume Samson, Ghislain Faure, and Gilles Garric
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1301–1324, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1301-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1301-2022, 2022
Short summary
Tropical cyclone storm surge probabilities for the east coast of the United States: a cyclone-based perspective
Katherine L. Towey, James F. Booth, Alejandra Rodriguez Enriquez, and Thomas Wahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1287–1300, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1287-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1287-2022, 2022
Short summary
Hydrometeorological analysis of the 12 and 13 September 2019 widespread flash flooding in eastern Spain
Arnau Amengual
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1159–1179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1159-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1159-2022, 2022
Short summary
Monitoring the daily evolution and extent of snow drought
Benjamin J. Hatchett, Alan M. Rhoades, and Daniel J. McEvoy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 869–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-869-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-869-2022, 2022
Short summary

Cited articles

Alexander, D.: Volcanic ash in the atmosphere and risks for civil aviation: A study in European crisis management, Int. J. Disast. Risk Sc., 4, 9–19, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-013-0003-0, 2013. a
Andersson, C., Langner, J., and Bergström, R.: Interannual variation and trends in air pollution over Europe due to climate variability during 1958–2001 simulated with a regional CTM coupled to the ERA40 reanalysis, Tellus B, 59, 77–98, 2007. a
Andersson, C., Bergström, R., Bennet, C., Robertson, L., Thomas, M., Korhonen, H., Lehtinen, K. E. J., and Kokkola, H.: MATCH-SALSA – Multi-scale Atmospheric Transport and CHemistry model coupled to the SALSA aerosol microphysics model – Part 1: Model description and evaluation, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 171–189, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-171-2015, 2015. a
Arason, P., Petersen, G. N., and Bjornsson, H.: Observations of the altitude of the volcanic plume during the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, April–May 2010, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 3, 9–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-3-9-2011, 2011. a, b
Beckett, F. M., Witham, C. S., Leadbetter, S. J., Crocker, R., Webster, H. N., Hort, M. C., Jones, A. R., Devenish, B. J., and Thomson, D. J.: Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling at the London VAAC: A Review of Developments since the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull Volcano Ash Cloud, Atmosphere, 11, 352, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040352, 2020. a
Download
Short summary
Past volcanic eruptions that spread out ash over large areas, like Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, forced the cancellation of thousands of flights and had huge economic consequences. In this article, an international team in the H2020 EU-funded EUNADICS-AV project has designed a probabilistic model approach to quantify ash concentrations. This approach is evaluated against measurements, and its potential use to mitigate the impact of future large-scale eruptions is discussed.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint