Articles | Volume 21, issue 10
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2973–2992, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021

Special issue: Analysis and prediction of natural airborne aviation hazards

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2973–2992, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021
Research article
 | Highlight paper
05 Oct 2021
Research article  | Highlight paper | 05 Oct 2021

An ensemble of state-of-the-art ash dispersion models: towards probabilistic forecasts to increase the resilience of air traffic against volcanic eruptions

Matthieu Plu et al.

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Cited articles

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Arason, P., Petersen, G. N., and Bjornsson, H.: Observations of the altitude of the volcanic plume during the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, April–May 2010, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 3, 9–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-3-9-2011, 2011. a, b
Beckett, F. M., Witham, C. S., Leadbetter, S. J., Crocker, R., Webster, H. N., Hort, M. C., Jones, A. R., Devenish, B. J., and Thomson, D. J.: Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling at the London VAAC: A Review of Developments since the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull Volcano Ash Cloud, Atmosphere, 11, 352, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040352, 2020. a
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Past volcanic eruptions that spread out ash over large areas, like Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, forced the cancellation of thousands of flights and had huge economic consequences. In this article, an international team in the H2020 EU-funded EUNADICS-AV project has designed a probabilistic model approach to quantify ash concentrations. This approach is evaluated against measurements, and its potential use to mitigate the impact of future large-scale eruptions is discussed.
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