Articles | Volume 21, issue 10
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2973–2992, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021

Special issue: Analysis and prediction of natural airborne aviation hazards

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2973–2992, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021

Research article 05 Oct 2021

Research article | 05 Oct 2021

An ensemble of state-of-the-art ash dispersion models: towards probabilistic forecasts to increase the resilience of air traffic against volcanic eruptions

Matthieu Plu et al.

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Latest update: 02 Dec 2021
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Short summary
Past volcanic eruptions that spread out ash over large areas, like Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, forced the cancellation of thousands of flights and had huge economic consequences. In this article, an international team in the H2020 EU-funded EUNADICS-AV project has designed a probabilistic model approach to quantify ash concentrations. This approach is evaluated against measurements, and its potential use to mitigate the impact of future large-scale eruptions is discussed.
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