Articles | Volume 21, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review article
| Highlight paper
| 
01 Sep 2021
Review article | Highlight paper |
| 01 Sep 2021
| 01 Sep 2021
The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and uncertainty (review article)
Georg Umgiesser
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
ISMAR-CNR, Institute of Marine Sciences, National Research Council,
Venice, Italy
Marine Research Institute, Klaipeda University, Klaipeda, Lithuania
Marco Bajo
ISMAR-CNR, Institute of Marine Sciences, National Research Council,
Venice, Italy
Christian Ferrarin
ISMAR-CNR, Institute of Marine Sciences, National Research Council,
Venice, Italy
Andrea Cucco
IAS-CNR, Institute for the study of Anthropic impacts and Sustainability in the marine environment, National Research Council, Oristano, Italy
Piero Lionello
DiSTeBA – University of Salento, Lecce, Italy
Davide Zanchettin
Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari of Venice, Mestre, Italy
Alvise Papa
CPSM, Centro Previsione e Segnalazione Maree – Protezione Civile,
Venice, Italy
Alessandro Tosoni
CPSM, Centro Previsione e Segnalazione Maree – Protezione Civile,
Venice, Italy
Maurizio Ferla
Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, ISPRA, Venice, Italy
Elisa Coraci
Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, ISPRA, Venice, Italy
Sara Morucci
Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, ISPRA, Venice, Italy
Franco Crosato
Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, ISPRA, Venice, Italy
Andrea Bonometto
Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, ISPRA, Venice, Italy
Andrea Valentini
Arpae-SIMC – Regional Agency for Prevention, Environment and Energy of
Emilia-Romagna, Hydro-Meteo-Climate Service, Bologna, Italy
Mirko Orlić
Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb,
Zagreb, Croatia
Ivan D. Haigh
School of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre,
University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
Jacob Woge Nielsen
DMI – Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
Xavier Bertin
UMR 7266 LIENSs, CNRS-La Rochelle University, 2 rue Olympe de
Gouges, 17000 La Rochelle, France
André Bustorff Fortunato
Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil, Lisbon, Portugal
Begoña Pérez Gómez
Puertos del Estado, Madrid, Spain
Enrique Alvarez Fanjul
Puertos del Estado, Madrid, Spain
Denis Paradis
Direction des Opérations pour la Prévision, Département Marine et Océanographie, Météo-France, Toulouse, France
Didier Jourdan
Shom (Service hydrographique et océanographique de la Marine),
Toulouse, France
Audrey Pasquet
Shom (Service hydrographique et océanographique de la Marine),
Toulouse, France
Baptiste Mourre
SOCIB, Balearic Islands Coastal Observing and Forecasting System, Mallorca, Spain
Joaquín Tintoré
SOCIB, Balearic Islands Coastal Observing and Forecasting System, Mallorca, Spain
Robert J. Nicholls
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East
Anglia, Norwich, UK
Related authors
Luca Arpaia, Christian Ferrarin, Marco Bajo, and Georg Umgiesser
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6899–6919, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6899-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6899-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a discrete multilayer shallow water model based on z-layers which, thanks to the insertion and removal of surface layers, can deal with an arbitrarily large tidal oscillation independently of the vertical resolution. The algorithm is based on a two-step procedure used in numerical simulations with moving boundaries (grid movement followed by a grid topology change, that is, the insertion/removal of surface layers), which avoids the appearance of very thin surface layers.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Rasa Idzelytė, Natalja Čerkasova, Jovita Mėžinė, Toma Dabulevičienė, Artūras Razinkovas-Baziukas, Ali Ertürk, and Georg Umgiesser
Ocean Sci., 19, 1047–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1047-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1047-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work is focused on the impacts of climate change on a complex water flow system in the southeastern (SE) Baltic Sea, covering the Nemunas river basin and Curonian Lagoon. The results show that lagoon and sea will receive more water coming from the Nemunas. This will lead to a decreased frequency of saltwater inflow to the lagoon, and water will take less time to renew. Water temperatures in the entire lagoon and the SE Baltic Sea will increase steadily, and salinity values will decrease.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Davide Zanchettin, Sara Bruni, Fabio Raicich, Piero Lionello, Fanny Adloff, Alexey Androsov, Fabrizio Antonioli, Vincenzo Artale, Eugenio Carminati, Christian Ferrarin, Vera Fofonova, Robert J. Nicholls, Sara Rubinetti, Angelo Rubino, Gianmaria Sannino, Giorgio Spada, Rémi Thiéblemont, Michael Tsimplis, Georg Umgiesser, Stefano Vignudelli, Guy Wöppelmann, and Susanna Zerbini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2643–2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2643-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2643-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Relative sea level in Venice rose by about 2.5 mm/year in the past 150 years due to the combined effect of subsidence and mean sea-level rise. We estimate the likely range of mean sea-level rise in Venice by 2100 due to climate changes to be between about 10 and 110 cm, with an improbable yet possible high-end scenario of about 170 cm. Projections of subsidence are not available, but historical evidence demonstrates that they can increase the hazard posed by climatically induced sea-level rise.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Piero Lionello, David Barriopedro, Christian Ferrarin, Robert J. Nicholls, Mirko Orlić, Fabio Raicich, Marco Reale, Georg Umgiesser, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2705–2731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this review we describe the factors leading to the extreme water heights producing the floods of Venice. We discuss the different contributions, their relative importance, and the resulting compound events. We highlight the role of relative sea level rise and the observed past and very likely future increase in extreme water heights, showing that they might be up to 160 % higher at the end of the 21st century than presently.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Piero Lionello, Robert J. Nicholls, Georg Umgiesser, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2633–2641, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2633-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2633-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Venice is an iconic place, and a paradigm of huge historical and cultural value is at risk. The threat posed by floods has dramatically increased in recent decades and is expected to continue to grow – and even accelerate – through this century. There is a need to better understand the future evolution of the relative sea level and its extremes and to develop adaptive planning strategies appropriate for present uncertainty, which might not be substantially reduced in the near future.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Christian Ferrarin, Marco Bajo, and Georg Umgiesser
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 645–659, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-645-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-645-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The problem of the optimization of ocean monitoring networks is tackled through the implementation of data assimilation techniques in a numerical model. The methodology has been applied to the tide gauge network in the Lagoon of Venice (Italy). The data assimilation methods allow identifying the minimum number of stations and their distribution that correctly represent the lagoon's dynamics. The methodology is easily exportable to other environments and can be extended to other variables.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nadia Pinardi, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Nicola Cardellicchio, Claudio Caporale, Stefania Ciliberti, Giovanni Coppini, Francesca De Pascalis, Lorenzo Dialti, Ivan Federico, Marco Filippone, Alessandro Grandi, Matteo Guideri, Rita Lecci, Lamberto Lamberti, Giuliano Lorenzetti, Paolo Lusiani, Cosimo Damiano Macripo, Francesco Maicu, Michele Mossa, Diego Tartarini, Francesco Trotta, Georg Umgiesser, and Luca Zaggia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2623–2639, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2623-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2623-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
A multiscale sampling experiment was carried out in the Gulf of Taranto (eastern Mediterranean) providing the first synoptic evidence of the large-scale circulation structure and associated mesoscale variability. The circulation is shown to be dominated by an anticyclonic gyre and upwelling areas at the gyre periphery.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Georg Umgiesser, Petras Zemlys, Ali Erturk, Arturas Razinkova-Baziukas, Jovita Mėžinė, and Christian Ferrarin
Ocean Sci., 12, 391–402, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-391-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-391-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The paper explores the importance of physical forcing on the exchange mechanisms and the renewal time in the Curonian Lagoon over 10 years. The influence of ice cover on the exchange rates has been explored. Finally, the influence of water level fluctuations and river discharge has been studied. It has been found that ice cover is surprisingly not very important for changes in renewal time. The single most important factor is river discharge.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
P. Zemlys, C. Ferrarin, G. Umgiesser, S. Gulbinskas, and D. Bellafiore
Ocean Sci., 9, 573–584, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-573-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-573-2013, 2013
C. Ferrarin, M. Ghezzo, G. Umgiesser, D. Tagliapietra, E. Camatti, L. Zaggia, and A. Sarretta
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1733–1748, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1733-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1733-2013, 2013
Angélique Melet, Roderik van de Wal, Angel Amores, Arne Arns, Alisée A. Chaigneau, Irina Dinu, Ivan D. Haigh, Tim H. J. Hermans, Piero Lionello, Marta Marcos, H. E. Markus Meier, Benoit Meyssignac, Matthew D. Palmer, Ronja Reese, Matthew J. R. Simpson, and Aimée B. A. Slangen
State Planet, 3-slre1, 4, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The EU Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise’s Assessment Report strives to synthesize the current scientific knowledge on sea level rise and its impacts across local, national, and EU scales to support evidence-based policy and decision-making, primarily targeting coastal areas. This paper complements IPCC reports by documenting the state of knowledge of observed and 21st century projected changes in mean and extreme sea levels with more regional information for EU seas as scoped with stakeholders.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexander Bisaro, Giulia Galluccio, Elisa Fiorini Beckhauser, Fulvio Biddau, Ruben David, Floortje d'Hont, Antonio Góngora Zurro, Gonéri Le Cozannet, Sadie McEvoy, Begoña Pérez Gómez, Claudia Romagnoli, Eugenio Sini, and Jill Slinger
State Planet, 3-slre1, 7, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-7-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-7-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses coastal adaptation governance by examining socio-economic and political contexts, reviewing policy frameworks, and identifying challenges. Results show that regional and basin-scale frameworks lack sea level rise provisions, but significant national progress is observed. The main governance challenges are time horizons and uncertainty, coordination, and social vulnerability. These, however, can be addressed if flexible planning and nature-based solutions are implemented.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Roderik van de Wal, Angélique Melet, Debora Bellafiore, Paula Camus, Christian Ferrarin, Gualbert Oude Essink, Ivan D. Haigh, Piero Lionello, Arjen Luijendijk, Alexandra Toimil, Joanna Staneva, and Michalis Vousdoukas
State Planet, 3-slre1, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sea level rise has major impacts in Europe, which vary from place to place and in time, depending on the source of the impacts. Flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion lead, via different pathways, to various consequences for coastal regions across Europe. This causes damage to assets, the environment, and people for all three categories of impacts discussed in this paper. The paper provides an overview of the various impacts in Europe.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mauro Cirano, Enrique Alvarez-Fanjul, Arthur Capet, Stefania Ciliberti, Emanuela Clementi, Boris Dewitte, Matias Dinápoli, Ghada El Serafy, Patrick Hogan, Sudheer Joseph, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Ivonne Montes, Diego Narvaez, Heather Regan, Claudia G. Simionato, Clemente A. S. Tanajura, Pramod Thupaki, Claudia Urbano-Latorre, and Jennifer Veitch
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-26, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-26, 2024
Preprint under review for SP
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting the ocean state in support of human activities, environmental monitoring and policymaking across different regions worldwide is fundamental. The status of operational ocean forecasting systems (OOFS) in 8 key regions worldwide is provided. A discussion follows on the numerical strategy and available OOFS, pointing out the straightness and the ways forward to improve the essential ocean variables predictability from regional to coastal scales, products reliability and accuracy.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3627–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We look at how compound flooding from the combination of river flooding and storm tides (storm surge and astronomical tide) may be changing over time due to climate change, with a case study of the Mekong River delta. We found that future compound flooding has the potential to flood the region more extensively and be longer lasting than compound floods today. This is useful to know because it means managers of deltas such as the Mekong can assess options for improving existing flood defences.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jun Yu Puah, Ivan D. Haigh, David Lallemant, Kyle Morgan, Dongju Peng, Masashi Watanabe, and Adam D. Switzer
Ocean Sci., 20, 1229–1246, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1229-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal currents have wide implications for port activities, transport of sediments, and coral reef ecosystems; thus a deeper understanding of their characteristics is needed. We collected data on current velocities for a year using current meters at shallow waters in Singapore. The strength of the currents is primarily affected by tides and winds and generally increases during the monsoon seasons across various frequencies.
Axelle Gaffet, Xavier Bertin, Damien Sous, Héloïse Michaud, Aron Roland, and Emmanuel Cordier
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2610, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2610, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new global wave model that improves predictions of sea-states in tropical areas. By employing advanced techniques to correct wind field errors and simulate distant swells, our new global wave model allows for the first time direct comparisons in shallow waters close to shore. The model's predictions were validated both globally using satellite data and nearshore with data collected around several tropical islands.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Enrique Alvarez Fanjul and Pierre Bahurel
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-34, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-34, 2024
Preprint under review for SP
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is a description of the OceanPrediction DCC and an introduction to this special issue. The objective of this compilation is to describe the actual status of ocean forecasting, detailing its degree of development in the different regions of the world and the most recent advances in all the relevant specific aspects associated with the technique, such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and many others.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Pablo Lorente, Marta de Alfonso, Pilar Gil, Fernando Manzano, Anna Magdalena Matulka, Begoña Pérez-Gómez, Susana Pérez-Rubio, and M. Isabel Ruiz
State Planet, 4-osr8, 19, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-19-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-19-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Over recent decades, extreme weather events have attracted growing public concern due to their widespread impact on the environment and human well-being. Their comprehensive monitoring is crucial to adopt prevention strategies and reduce coastal vulnerability. In this work, the record-breaking wave event that hit Melilla harbour (SW Mediterranean Sea) during early April 2022 was investigated to elucidate the meteorological drivers and evaluate the energetic response of Melilla harbour basins.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Angelique Melet, Begoña Pérez Gómez, and Pascal Matte
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-27, 2024
Preprint under review for SP
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting the sea level is crucial for supporting coastal management through early warning systems and for adopting adaptation strategies to climate changes impacts. We provide here an overview on models commonly used for sea level forecasting, that can be based on storm surge models or ocean circulation ones, integrated on structured or unstructured grids, including an outlook on new approaches based on ensemble methods.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marina Tonani, Eric Chassignet, Mauro Cirano, Yasumasa Miyazawa, and Begoña Pérez Gómez
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-30, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-30, 2024
Preprint under review for SP
Short summary
Short summary
This article provides an overview of the main characteristics of ocean forecast systems covering a limited region of the ocean. Their main components are described, as well as the spatial and temporal scales they resolve. The oceanic variables that these systems are able to predict are also explained. An overview of the main forecasting systems currently in operation is also provided.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Joshua Green, Ivan Haigh, Niall Quinn, Jeff Neal, Thomas Wahl, Melissa Wood, Dirk Eilander, Marleen de Ruiter, Philip Ward, and Paula Camus
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2247, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2247, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Compound flooding, involving the combination or successive occurrence of two or more flood drivers, can amplify flood impacts in coastal/estuarine regions. This paper reviews the practices, trends, methodologies, applications, and findings of coastal compound flooding literature at regional to global scales. We explore the types of compound flood events, their mechanistic processes, and the range of terminology. Lastly, this review highlights knowledge gaps and implications for future practices.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Léo Seyfried, Laurie Biscara, Héloïse Michaud, Fabien Leckler, Audrey Pasquet, Marc Pezerat, and Clément Gicquel
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3345–3367, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3345-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3345-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In Saint-Malo, France, an initiative to enhance marine submersion prevention began in 2018. Shom conducted an extensive sea campaign, mapping the bay's topography and exploring coastal processes. High-resolution data improve knowledge of the interactions between waves, tide and surge and determine processes responsible for submersion. Beyond science, these findings contribute crucially to a local warning system, providing a tangible solution to protect the community from coastal threats.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Thomas P. Collings, Niall D. Quinn, Ivan D. Haigh, Joshua Green, Izzy Probyn, Hamish Wilkinson, Sanne Muis, William V. Sweet, and Paul D. Bates
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2403–2423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are at risk of flooding from rising sea levels and extreme weather events. This study applies a new approach to estimating the likelihood of coastal flooding around the world. The method uses data from observations and computer models to create a detailed map of where these coastal floods might occur. The approach can predict flooding in areas for which there are few or no data available. The results can be used to help prepare for and prevent this type of flooding.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hung Nghia Nguyen, Quan Quan Le, Dung Viet Nguyen, Tan Hong Cao, Toan Quang To, Hai Do Dac, Melissa Wood, and Ivan D. Haigh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-107, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The paper focuses on inundation process in a highest climate vulnerability area of the Mekong Delta, main drivers and future impacts, this is importance alert to decision makers and stakeholder for investment of infrastructure, adaptation approaches and mitigating impacts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hera Guðlaugsdóttir, Yannick Peings, Davide Zanchettin, and Guðrún Magnúsdóttir
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1302, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1302, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here we use an Earth System Model to simulate a long-lasting volcanic eruption at 65° N to assess its climate effects. We show a Polar Vortex strengthening in winter 1 and a weakening in winters 2–3 due to surface cooling that further causes an increase in sudden stratospheric warmings. This can cause severe cold weather events in the northern hemisphere. Our motivation is to understand how such eruptions impact the climate system for improving decadal climate predictability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Matteo Mastropierro, Daniele Peano, and Davide Zanchettin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-823, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-823, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We address how different ESMs represent vegetation productivity, in terms of carbon fluxes, within the Amazon basin. By statistically assessing the role of climatological and model specific factors that influence vegetation, we showed that surface energy fluxes and the implementation of Phosphorous limitation resulted to be the main drivers of model uncertainties in a future scenario. Reducing these uncertainties allows to increase the reliability of tropical land carbon and climate projections
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jue Lin-Ye, Begoña Pérez Gómez, Alejandro Gallardo, Fernando Manzano, Marta de Alfonso, Elizabeth Bradshaw, and Angela Hibbert
Ocean Sci., 19, 1743–1751, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1743-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1743-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The historical sea level measurements in the Copernicus Marine Service have been machine flagged and visually inspected. The existing software for the near-real-time product has been adapted. The new product was launched in November of 2022 and is readily available to the general public.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Luca Arpaia, Christian Ferrarin, Marco Bajo, and Georg Umgiesser
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6899–6919, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6899-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6899-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a discrete multilayer shallow water model based on z-layers which, thanks to the insertion and removal of surface layers, can deal with an arbitrarily large tidal oscillation independently of the vertical resolution. The algorithm is based on a two-step procedure used in numerical simulations with moving boundaries (grid movement followed by a grid topology change, that is, the insertion/removal of surface layers), which avoids the appearance of very thin surface layers.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alberto Ribotti, Antonio Bussani, Milena Menna, Andrea Satta, Roberto Sorgente, Andrea Cucco, and Riccardo Gerin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4651–4659, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4651-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4651-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Over 100 experiments were realized between 1998 and 2022 in the Mediterranean Sea using surface coastal and offshore Lagrangian drifters. Raw data were initially unified and pre-processed. Then, the integrity of the received data packages was checked and incomplete ones were discarded. Deployment information was retrieved and integrated into the PostgreSQL database. Data were interpolated at defined time intervals, providing a dataset of 158 trajectories, available in different formats.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Roberto Sorgente, Federica Pessini, Aldo Francis Drago, Alberto Ribotti, Simona Genovese, Marco Barra, Angelo Perilli, Giovanni Quattrocchi, Andrea Cucco, Ignazio Fontana, Giovanni Giacalone, Gualtiero Basilone, and Angelo Bonanno
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2193, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2193, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Presence and interannual variability of water masses on the continental shelf around Sardinia are studied by CTD data from three cruises carried out between 2019 and 2021. For the first time the analyses are identifying the water mass phenomenology on the south-western Sardinia shelf characterized by the presence of the Atlantic Water driven by Algerian eddies. On the southern and eastern shelves, the presence of the Atlantic Water the water column is affected by the South East Sardinia Gyre.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Pablo Lorente, Anna Rubio, Emma Reyes, Lohitzune Solabarrieta, Silvia Piedracoba, Joaquín Tintoré, and Julien Mader
State Planet, 1-osr7, 8, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-8-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-8-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Upwelling is an important process that impacts water quality and aquaculture production in coastal areas. In this work we present a new methodology to monitor this phenomenon in two different regions by using surface current estimations provided by remote sensing technology called high-frequency radar.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Baptiste Mourre, Emma Reyes, Pablo Lorente, Alex Santana, Jaime Hernández-Lasheras, Ismael Hernández-Carrasco, Maximo García-Jove, and Nikolaos D. Zarokanellos
State Planet, 1-osr7, 15, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-15-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-15-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We characterize the signature of an intense storm-induced coastal upwelling along the north-western coast of the Balearic Islands in 2021 using a high-resolution operational prediction model. The upwelling, with a duration of 3 d and a spatial offshore extension of 20 km, led to cross-shore surface temperature differences of up to 6 °C. It was the most intense event of the past 9 years in terms of the impact on temperature and the second-most intense event in terms of cross-shore transports.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stefania A. Ciliberti, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Jay Pearlman, Kirsten Wilmer-Becker, Pierre Bahurel, Fabrice Ardhuin, Alain Arnaud, Mike Bell, Segolene Berthou, Laurent Bertino, Arthur Capet, Eric Chassignet, Stefano Ciavatta, Mauro Cirano, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Gianpaolo Coro, Stuart Corney, Fraser Davidson, Marie Drevillon, Yann Drillet, Renaud Dussurget, Ghada El Serafy, Katja Fennel, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Patrick Heimbach, Fabrice Hernandez, Patrick Hogan, Ibrahim Hoteit, Sudheer Joseph, Simon Josey, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Simone Libralato, Marco Mancini, Pascal Matte, Angelique Melet, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Andrew M. Moore, Antonio Novellino, Andrew Porter, Heather Regan, Laia Romero, Andreas Schiller, John Siddorn, Joanna Staneva, Cecile Thomas-Courcoux, Marina Tonani, Jose Maria Garcia-Valdecasas, Jennifer Veitch, Karina von Schuckmann, Liying Wan, John Wilkin, and Romane Zufic
State Planet, 1-osr7, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, 2023
Emmanouil Flaounas, Leonardo Aragão, Lisa Bernini, Stavros Dafis, Benjamin Doiteau, Helena Flocas, Suzanne L. Gray, Alexia Karwat, John Kouroutzoglou, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Claudia Pasquero, Platon Patlakas, María Ángeles Picornell, Federico Porcù, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Marco Reale, Malcolm J. Roberts, Hadas Saaroni, Dor Sandler, Enrico Scoccimarro, Michael Sprenger, and Baruch Ziv
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 639–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This leads to disagreements on extratropical cyclone climatologies. We present a new approach that combines tracks from individual CDTMs to produce new composite tracks. These new tracks are shown to correspond to physically meaningful systems with distinctive life stages.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Robert J. Nicholls, and Nadia Bloemendaal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2475–2504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We used a novel database of simulated tropical cyclone tracks to explore whether typhoon-induced storm surges present a future flood risk to low-lying coastal communities around the South China Sea. We found that future climate change is likely to change tropical cyclone behaviour to an extent that this increases the severity and frequency of storm surges to Vietnam, southern China, and Thailand. Consequently, coastal flood defences need to be reviewed for resilience against this future hazard.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Rasa Idzelytė, Natalja Čerkasova, Jovita Mėžinė, Toma Dabulevičienė, Artūras Razinkovas-Baziukas, Ali Ertürk, and Georg Umgiesser
Ocean Sci., 19, 1047–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1047-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1047-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work is focused on the impacts of climate change on a complex water flow system in the southeastern (SE) Baltic Sea, covering the Nemunas river basin and Curonian Lagoon. The results show that lagoon and sea will receive more water coming from the Nemunas. This will lead to a decreased frequency of saltwater inflow to the lagoon, and water will take less time to renew. Water temperatures in the entire lagoon and the SE Baltic Sea will increase steadily, and salinity values will decrease.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Roberto Ingrosso, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, and Gianfausto Salvadori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2443–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tornadoes represent disruptive and dangerous weather events. The prediction of these small-scale phenomena depends on the resolution of present weather forecast and climatic projections. This work discusses the occurrence of tornadoes in terms of atmospheric variables and provides analytical expressions for their conditional probability. These formulas represent a tool for tornado alert systems and for estimating the future evolution of tornado frequency and intensity in climate projections.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Christian Ferrarin, Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Marco Bajo, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Elenio Avolio, Diego S. Carrió, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Claudio Sanchez, Platon Patlakas, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2273–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The combined use of meteorological and ocean models enabled the analysis of extreme sea conditions driven by Medicane Ianos, which hit the western coast of Greece on 18 September 2020, flooding and damaging the coast. The large spread associated with the ensemble highlighted the high model uncertainty in simulating such an extreme weather event. The different simulations have been used for outlining hazard scenarios that represent a fundamental component of the coastal risk assessment.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marco Bajo, Christian Ferrarin, Georg Umgiesser, Andrea Bonometto, and Elisa Coraci
Ocean Sci., 19, 559–579, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-559-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-559-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work uses a hydrodynamic model which assimilates in situ data to reproduce tides, surges, and seiches in the Mediterranean basin. Furthermore, we study the periods of the barotropic modes of the Mediterranean and Adriatic basins. This research aims to improve the forecasting and reanalysis for operational warning and climatological studies. It aims also to reach a better knowledge of these sea level components in this area.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ed Hawkins, Philip Brohan, Samantha N. Burgess, Stephen Burt, Gilbert P. Compo, Suzanne L. Gray, Ivan D. Haigh, Hans Hersbach, Kiki Kuijjer, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Chesley McColl, Andrew P. Schurer, Laura Slivinski, and Joanne Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1465–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 and caused significant damage in the UK and Ireland. Using newly digitized weather observations from the time of the storm, combined with a modern weather forecast model, allows us to determine why this storm caused so much damage. We demonstrate that the event is one of the most severe windstorms to affect this region since detailed records began. The approach establishes a new tool to improve assessments of risk from extreme weather.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Damiano Baldan, Elisa Coraci, Franco Crosato, Maurizio Ferla, Andrea Bonometto, and Sara Morucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3663–3677, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme-event analysis is widely used to provide information for the design of coastal protection structures. Non-stationarity due to sea level rise can affect such estimates. Using different methods on a long time series of sea level data, we show that estimates of the magnitude of extreme events in the future can be inexact due to relative sea level rise. Thus, considering non-stationarity is important when analyzing extreme-sea-level events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Umesh Pranavam Ayyappan Pillai, Nadia Pinardi, Ivan Federico, Salvatore Causio, Francesco Trotta, Silvia Unguendoli, and Andrea Valentini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3413–3433, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3413-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents the application of high-resolution coastal modelling for wave hindcasting on the Emilia-Romagna coastal belt. The generated coastal databases which provide an understanding of the prevailing wind-wave characteristics can aid in predicting coastal impacts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alberto Ribotti, Roberto Sorgente, Federica Pessini, Andrea Cucco, Giovanni Quattrocchi, and Mireno Borghini
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4187–4199, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4187-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4187-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Over 1468 hydrological vertical profiles were acquired in 21 years in the Mediterranean Sea. This allowed us to follow the diffusion of the Western Mediterranean Transient along all western seas or make some important repetitions across straits, channels, or at defined locations. These data are now available in four open-access online datasets, including profiles of water temperature, conductivity, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll α fluorescence, and, after 2004, turbidity and pH.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Begoña Pérez Gómez, Ivica Vilibić, Jadranka Šepić, Iva Međugorac, Matjaž Ličer, Laurent Testut, Claire Fraboul, Marta Marcos, Hassen Abdellaoui, Enrique Álvarez Fanjul, Darko Barbalić, Benjamín Casas, Antonio Castaño-Tierno, Srđan Čupić, Aldo Drago, María Angeles Fraile, Daniele A. Galliano, Adam Gauci, Branislav Gloginja, Víctor Martín Guijarro, Maja Jeromel, Marcos Larrad Revuelto, Ayah Lazar, Ibrahim Haktan Keskin, Igor Medvedev, Abdelkader Menassri, Mohamed Aïssa Meslem, Hrvoje Mihanović, Sara Morucci, Dragos Niculescu, José Manuel Quijano de Benito, Josep Pascual, Atanas Palazov, Marco Picone, Fabio Raicich, Mohamed Said, Jordi Salat, Erdinc Sezen, Mehmet Simav, Georgios Sylaios, Elena Tel, Joaquín Tintoré, Klodian Zaimi, and George Zodiatis
Ocean Sci., 18, 997–1053, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-997-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-997-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This description and mapping of coastal sea level monitoring networks in the Mediterranean and Black seas reveals the existence of 240 presently operational tide gauges. Information is provided about the type of sensor, time sampling, data availability, and ancillary measurements. An assessment of the fit-for-purpose status of the network is also included, along with recommendations to mitigate existing bottlenecks and improve the network, in a context of sea level rise and increasing extremes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Emma Reyes, Eva Aguiar, Michele Bendoni, Maristella Berta, Carlo Brandini, Alejandro Cáceres-Euse, Fulvio Capodici, Vanessa Cardin, Daniela Cianelli, Giuseppe Ciraolo, Lorenzo Corgnati, Vlado Dadić, Bartolomeo Doronzo, Aldo Drago, Dylan Dumas, Pierpaolo Falco, Maria Fattorini, Maria J. Fernandes, Adam Gauci, Roberto Gómez, Annalisa Griffa, Charles-Antoine Guérin, Ismael Hernández-Carrasco, Jaime Hernández-Lasheras, Matjaž Ličer, Pablo Lorente, Marcello G. Magaldi, Carlo Mantovani, Hrvoje Mihanović, Anne Molcard, Baptiste Mourre, Adèle Révelard, Catalina Reyes-Suárez, Simona Saviano, Roberta Sciascia, Stefano Taddei, Joaquín Tintoré, Yaron Toledo, Marco Uttieri, Ivica Vilibić, Enrico Zambianchi, and Alejandro Orfila
Ocean Sci., 18, 797–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-797-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-797-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work reviews the existing advanced and emerging scientific and societal applications using HFR data, developed to address the major challenges identified in Mediterranean coastal waters organized around three main topics: maritime safety, extreme hazards and environmental transport processes. It also includes a discussion and preliminary assessment of the capabilities of existing HFR applications, finally providing a set of recommendations towards setting out future prospects.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Pablo Lorente, Eva Aguiar, Michele Bendoni, Maristella Berta, Carlo Brandini, Alejandro Cáceres-Euse, Fulvio Capodici, Daniela Cianelli, Giuseppe Ciraolo, Lorenzo Corgnati, Vlado Dadić, Bartolomeo Doronzo, Aldo Drago, Dylan Dumas, Pierpaolo Falco, Maria Fattorini, Adam Gauci, Roberto Gómez, Annalisa Griffa, Charles-Antoine Guérin, Ismael Hernández-Carrasco, Jaime Hernández-Lasheras, Matjaž Ličer, Marcello G. Magaldi, Carlo Mantovani, Hrvoje Mihanović, Anne Molcard, Baptiste Mourre, Alejandro Orfila, Adèle Révelard, Emma Reyes, Jorge Sánchez, Simona Saviano, Roberta Sciascia, Stefano Taddei, Joaquín Tintoré, Yaron Toledo, Laura Ursella, Marco Uttieri, Ivica Vilibić, Enrico Zambianchi, and Vanessa Cardin
Ocean Sci., 18, 761–795, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-761-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-761-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
High-frequency radar (HFR) is a land-based remote sensing technology that can provide maps of the surface circulation over broad coastal areas, along with wave and wind information. The main goal of this work is to showcase the current status of the Mediterranean HFR network as well as present and future applications of this sensor for societal benefit such as search and rescue operations, safe vessel navigation, tracking of marine pollutants, and the monitoring of extreme events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sam White, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Davide Zanchettin, Heli Huhtamaa, Dagomar Degroot, Markus Stoffel, and Christophe Corona
Clim. Past, 18, 739–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-739-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-739-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines whether the 1600 Huaynaputina volcano eruption triggered persistent cooling in the North Atlantic. It compares previous paleoclimate simulations with new climate reconstructions from natural proxies and historical documents and finds that the reconstructions are consistent with, but do not support, an eruption trigger for persistent cooling. The study also analyzes societal impacts of climatic change in ca. 1600 and the use of historical observations in model–data comparison.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Davide Zanchettin, Claudia Timmreck, Myriam Khodri, Anja Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Manabu Abe, Slimane Bekki, Jason Cole, Shih-Wei Fang, Wuhu Feng, Gabriele Hegerl, Ben Johnson, Nicolas Lebas, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham W. Mann, Lauren Marshall, Landon Rieger, Alan Robock, Sara Rubinetti, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Helen Weierbach
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2265–2292, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2265-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides metadata and first analyses of the volc-pinatubo-full experiment of CMIP6-VolMIP. Results from six Earth system models reveal significant differences in radiative flux anomalies that trace back to different implementations of volcanic forcing. Surface responses are in contrast overall consistent across models, reflecting the large spread due to internal variability. A second phase of VolMIP shall consider both aspects toward improved protocol for volc-pinatubo-full.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ahmed A. Nasr, Thomas Wahl, Md Mamunur Rashid, Paula Camus, and Ivan D. Haigh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6203–6222, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6203-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6203-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse dependences between different flooding drivers around the USA coastline, where the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern and southwestern coasts are regions of high dependence between flooding drivers. Dependence is higher during the tropical season in the Gulf and at some locations on the East Coast but higher during the extratropical season on the West Coast. The analysis gives new insights on locations, driver combinations, and the time of the year when compound flooding is likely.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Julia Rulent, Lucy M. Bricheno, J. A. Mattias Green, Ivan D. Haigh, and Huw Lewis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3339–3351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3339-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3339-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
High coastal total water levels (TWLs) can lead to flooding and hazardous conditions for coastal communities and environment. In this research we are using numerical models to study the interactions between the three main components of the TWL (waves, tides, and surges) on UK and Irish coasts during winter 2013/14. The main finding of this research is that extreme waves and surges can indeed happen together, even at high tide, but they often occurred simultaneously 2–3 h before high tide.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Samuel Tiéfolo Diabaté, Didier Swingedouw, Joël Jean-Marie Hirschi, Aurélie Duchez, Philip J. Leadbitter, Ivan D. Haigh, and Gerard D. McCarthy
Ocean Sci., 17, 1449–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1449-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1449-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio are major currents of the North Atlantic and North Pacific, respectively. They transport warm water northward and are key components of the Earth climate system. For this study, we looked at how they affect the sea level of the coasts of Japan, the USA and Canada. We found that the inshore sea level
co-varies with the north-to-south shifts of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio. In the paper, we discuss the physical mechanisms that could explain the agreement.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Léo Seyfried, Laurie Biscara, Fabien Leckler, Audrey Pasquet, and Héloise Michaud
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2021-316, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2021-316, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
The French Flooding Prevention Action Program of Saint-Malo focuses on improving the knowledge of coastal flooding risks. The proposed approach is to use in-situ data collection. Bathymetric and oceanographic measurement campaigns were conducted during the winter of 2018–2019. Topo-bathymetric and oceanographic datasets have been built from these measurement campaigns. These data allow the development and validation of numerical models to improve the prediction of coastal flooding risks.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Davide Zanchettin, Sara Bruni, Fabio Raicich, Piero Lionello, Fanny Adloff, Alexey Androsov, Fabrizio Antonioli, Vincenzo Artale, Eugenio Carminati, Christian Ferrarin, Vera Fofonova, Robert J. Nicholls, Sara Rubinetti, Angelo Rubino, Gianmaria Sannino, Giorgio Spada, Rémi Thiéblemont, Michael Tsimplis, Georg Umgiesser, Stefano Vignudelli, Guy Wöppelmann, and Susanna Zerbini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2643–2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2643-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2643-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Relative sea level in Venice rose by about 2.5 mm/year in the past 150 years due to the combined effect of subsidence and mean sea-level rise. We estimate the likely range of mean sea-level rise in Venice by 2100 due to climate changes to be between about 10 and 110 cm, with an improbable yet possible high-end scenario of about 170 cm. Projections of subsidence are not available, but historical evidence demonstrates that they can increase the hazard posed by climatically induced sea-level rise.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Piero Lionello, David Barriopedro, Christian Ferrarin, Robert J. Nicholls, Mirko Orlić, Fabio Raicich, Marco Reale, Georg Umgiesser, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2705–2731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this review we describe the factors leading to the extreme water heights producing the floods of Venice. We discuss the different contributions, their relative importance, and the resulting compound events. We highlight the role of relative sea level rise and the observed past and very likely future increase in extreme water heights, showing that they might be up to 160 % higher at the end of the 21st century than presently.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Piero Lionello, Robert J. Nicholls, Georg Umgiesser, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2633–2641, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2633-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2633-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Venice is an iconic place, and a paradigm of huge historical and cultural value is at risk. The threat posed by floods has dramatically increased in recent decades and is expected to continue to grow – and even accelerate – through this century. There is a need to better understand the future evolution of the relative sea level and its extremes and to develop adaptive planning strategies appropriate for present uncertainty, which might not be substantially reduced in the near future.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jaime Hernandez-Lasheras, Baptiste Mourre, Alejandro Orfila, Alex Santana, Emma Reyes, and Joaquín Tintoré
Ocean Sci., 17, 1157–1175, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1157-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1157-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Correct surface ocean circulation forecasts are highly relevant to search and rescue, oil spills, and ecological processes, among other things. High-frequency radar (HFR) is a remote sensing technology that measures surface currents in coastal areas with high temporal and spatial resolution. We performed a series of experiments in which we use HFR observations from the Ibiza Channel to improve the forecasts provided by a regional ocean model in the western Mediterranean.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Md. Jamal Uddin Khan, Fabien Durand, Xavier Bertin, Laurent Testut, Yann Krien, A. K. M. Saiful Islam, Marc Pezerat, and Sazzad Hossain
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2523–2541, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2523-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2523-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Bay of Bengal is well known for some of the deadliest cyclones in history. At the same time, storm surge forecasting in this region is physically involved and computationally costly. Here we show a proof of concept of a real-time, computationally efficient, and physically consistent forecasting system with an application to the recent Supercyclone Amphan. While challenges remain, our study paves the path forward to the improvement of the quality of localized forecast and disaster management.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Paula Freire, Marta Rodrigues, André B. Fortunato, and Alberto Freitas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2503–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2503-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2503-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a risk assessment approach addressing the two main natural risks that affect agricultural estuarine lowlands: the scarcity of freshwater for irrigation and marine submersion. The approach is applied to an important agricultural area located in the Tagus Estuary (Portugal). Results show that the approach is appropriate to support risk owners in taking actions to mitigate the risk mainly when the possible impact of climate change in risk levels is considered.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Davide Zanchettin, Stefan Brönnimann, Elin Lundstad, and Rob Wilson
Clim. Past, 17, 1455–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1455-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1455-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The 1809 eruption is one of the most recent unidentified volcanic eruptions with a global climate impact. We demonstrate that climate model simulations of the 1809 eruption show generally good agreement with many large-scale temperature reconstructions and early instrumental records for a range of radiative forcing estimates. In terms of explaining the spatially heterogeneous and temporally delayed Northern Hemisphere cooling suggested by tree-ring networks, the investigation remains open.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Paula Camus, Ivan D. Haigh, Ahmed A. Nasr, Thomas Wahl, Stephen E. Darby, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2021–2040, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In coastal regions, floods can arise through concurrent drivers, such as precipitation, river discharge, storm surge, and waves, which exacerbate the impact. In this study, we identify hotspots of compound flooding along the southern coast of the North Atlantic Ocean and the northern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. This regional assessment can be considered a screening tool for coastal management that provides information about which areas are more predisposed to experience compound flooding.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Yasser Hamdi, Ivan D. Haigh, Sylvie Parey, and Thomas Wahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1461–1465, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1461-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1461-2021, 2021
Margot Clyne, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Michael J. Mills, Myriam Khodri, William Ball, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Nicolas Lebas, Graham Mann, Lauren Marshall, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Anja Schmidt, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Fiona Tummon, Davide Zanchettin, Yunqian Zhu, and Owen B. Toon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3317–3343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study finds how and why five state-of-the-art global climate models with interactive stratospheric aerosols differ when simulating the aftermath of large volcanic injections as part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP). We identify and explain the consequences of significant disparities in the underlying physics and chemistry currently in some of the models, which are problems likely not unique to the models participating in this study.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Christian Ferrarin, Marco Bajo, and Georg Umgiesser
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 645–659, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-645-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-645-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The problem of the optimization of ocean monitoring networks is tackled through the implementation of data assimilation techniques in a numerical model. The methodology has been applied to the tide gauge network in the Lagoon of Venice (Italy). The data assimilation methods allow identifying the minimum number of stations and their distribution that correctly represent the lagoon's dynamics. The methodology is easily exportable to other environments and can be extended to other variables.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Giovanni Denaro, Daniela Salvagio Manta, Alessandro Borri, Maria Bonsignore, Davide Valenti, Enza Quinci, Andrea Cucco, Bernardo Spagnolo, Mario Sprovieri, and Andrea De Gaetano
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2073–2093, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2073-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2073-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The HR3DHG (high-resolution 3D mercury model) investigates the spatiotemporal behavior, in seawater and marine sediments, of three mercury species (elemental, inorganic, and organic mercury) in a highly polluted marine environment (Augusta Bay, southern Italy). The model shows fair agreement with the experimental data collected during six different oceanographic cruises and can possibly be used for a detailed exploration of the effects of climate change on mercury distribution.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Scott A. Stephens, Robert G. Bell, and Ivan D. Haigh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 783–796, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-783-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-783-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme sea levels in New Zealand occur in nearby places and at similar times, which means that flooding impacts and losses may be linked in space and time. The most extreme sea levels depend on storms coinciding with very high tides because storm surges are relatively small in New Zealand. The type of storm weather system influences where the extreme sea levels occur, and the annual timing is influenced by the low-amplitude (~10 cm) annual sea-level cycle.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Anaïs Couasnon, Dirk Eilander, Sanne Muis, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, Ivan D. Haigh, Thomas Wahl, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 489–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-489-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-489-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
When a high river discharge coincides with a high storm surge level, this can exarcebate flood level, depth, and duration, resulting in a so-called compound flood event. These events are not currently included in global flood models. In this research, we analyse the timing and correlation between modelled discharge and storm surge level time series in deltas and estuaries. Our results provide a first indication of regions along the global coastline with a high compound flooding potential.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Valentini, Martin Vodopivec, Dijana Klaric, Giovanni Massaro, Marco Bajo, Francesca De Pascalis, Amedeo Fadini, Michol Ghezzo, Stefano Menegon, Lidia Bressan, Silvia Unguendoli, Anja Fettich, Jure Jerman, Matjaz̆ Ličer, Lidija Fustar, Alvise Papa, and Enrico Carraro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 73–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-73-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-73-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present a shared and interoperable system to allow a better exchange of and elaboration on information related to sea storms among countries. The proposed integrated web system (IWS) is a combination of a common data system for sharing ocean observations and forecasts, a multi-model ensemble system, a geoportal, and interactive geo-visualization tools. This study describes the application of the developed system to the exceptional storm event of 29 October 2018.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Piero Lionello, Dario Conte, and Marco Reale
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1541–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1541-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1541-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Large positive and negative sea level anomalies on the coast of the Mediterranean Sea are produced by cyclones moving along the Mediterranean storm track, which are mostly generated in the western Mediterranean. The wind around the cyclone center is the main cause of sea level anomalies when a shallow water fetch is present. The inverse barometer effect produces a positive anomaly near the cyclone pressure minimum and a negative anomaly at the opposite side of the Mediterranean Sea.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alistair Hendry, Ivan D. Haigh, Robert J. Nicholls, Hugo Winter, Robert Neal, Thomas Wahl, Amélie Joly-Laugel, and Stephen E. Darby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3117–3139, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3117-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3117-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding can arise from multiple sources, including waves, extreme sea levels, rivers, and severe rainfall. When two or more sources combine, the consequences can be greatly multiplied. We find the potential for the joint occurrence of extreme sea levels and river discharge to be greater on the western coast of the UK compared to the eastern coast. This is due to the weather conditions generating each flood source around the UK. These results will help increase our flood forecasting ability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Pablo Lorente, Marcos García-Sotillo, Arancha Amo-Baladrón, Roland Aznar, Bruno Levier, José C. Sánchez-Garrido, Simone Sammartino, Álvaro de Pascual-Collar, Guillaume Reffray, Cristina Toledano, and Enrique Álvarez-Fanjul
Ocean Sci., 15, 967–996, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-967-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-967-2019, 2019
Álvaro de Pascual-Collar, Marcos G. Sotillo, Bruno Levier, Roland Aznar, Pablo Lorente, Arancha Amo-Baladrón, and Enrique Álvarez-Fanjul
Ocean Sci., 15, 565–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-565-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-565-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) is a dense water mass originated in the Gibraltar Straight. The CMEMS IBI ocean reanalysis is used to provide a detailed view of the circulation and mixing processes of MOW near the Iberian and African Continental slopes. This work emphasizes the relevance of the complex bathymetric features defining the circulation and variability processes of MOW in this region.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Athanasios T. Vafeidis, Mark Schuerch, Claudia Wolff, Tom Spencer, Jan L. Merkens, Jochen Hinkel, Daniel Lincke, Sally Brown, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 973–984, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-973-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-973-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates the effect of surge water level reduction due to land surface characteristics when assessing flood impacts at global scales. Our results show that uncertainties due to not accounting for water attenuation are of similar magnitude to the uncertainties regarding the total amount of sea-level rise expected by 2100, thus highlighting the need for better understanding of the spatial and temporal variation of water levels across floodplains.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Romain Rainaud, Lotfi Aouf, Alice Dalphinet, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Enrique Alvarez-Fanjul, Guillaume Reffray, Bruno Levier, Stéphane LawChune, Pablo Lorente, and Cristina Toledano
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2018-165, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2018-165, 2019
Publication in OS not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
This paper highlight the adjustment of the wave physics in order to improve the surface stress and thus the ocean/wave coupling dedicated to Iberian Biscay and Ireland domain. The validation with altimeters wave data during the year 2014 has shown a slight improvement of the significant wave height. Statistical analysis of the results of the new and old versions of the wave model MFWAM is examined for the three main ocean regions of the IBI domain.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Romain Rainaud, Lotfi Aouf, Alice Dalphinet, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Enrique Alvarez-Fanjul, Guillaume Reffray, Bruno Levier, Stéphane Law-Chune, Pablo Lorente, and Cristina Toledano
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2018-167, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2018-167, 2019
Publication in OS not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
This work highlights the relevance of coupling wave model with ocean model in order to improve key surface ocean parameters and in general to better describe the ocean circulation at small and large scale.
The results focus on the Iberian Biscay and Ireland ocean region with fine grid resolution of 2.5 km for the ocean model. The main conclusion is the improvement of wave physics induces a better ocean mixing at the upper layer and a positive impact for sea surface height in storm events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sophie Bastin, Philippe Drobinski, Marjolaine Chiriaco, Olivier Bock, Romain Roehrig, Clemente Gallardo, Dario Conte, Marta Domínguez Alonso, Laurent Li, Piero Lionello, and Ana C. Parracho
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1471–1490, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1471-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1471-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper uses colocated observations of temperature, precipitation and humidity to investigate the triggering of precipitation. It shows that there is a critical value of humidity above which precipitation picks up. This critical value depends on T and varies spatially. It also analyses how this dependency is reproduced in regional climate simulations over Europe. Models with too little and too light precipitation have both lower critical value of humidity and higher probability to exceed it.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Yuri Cotroneo, Giuseppe Aulicino, Simon Ruiz, Antonio Sánchez Román, Marc Torner Tomàs, Ananda Pascual, Giannetta Fusco, Emma Heslop, Joaquín Tintoré, and Giorgio Budillon
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 147–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-147-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-147-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present data collected from the first three glider surveys in the Algerian Basin conducted during the ABACUS project. After collection, data passed a quality control procedure and were then made available through an unrestricted repository. The main objective of our project is monitoring the basin circulation of the Mediterranean Sea. Temperature and salinity data collected in the first 975 m of the water column allowed us to identify the main water masses and describe their characteristics.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Charles Troupin, Ananda Pascual, Simon Ruiz, Antonio Olita, Benjamin Casas, Félix Margirier, Pierre-Marie Poulain, Giulio Notarstefano, Marc Torner, Juan Gabriel Fernández, Miquel Àngel Rújula, Cristian Muñoz, Eva Alou, Inmaculada Ruiz, Antonio Tovar-Sánchez, John T. Allen, Amala Mahadevan, and Joaquín Tintoré
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 129–145, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-129-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-129-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The AlborEX (the Alboran Sea Experiment) consisted of an experiment in the Alboran Sea (western Mediterranean Sea) that took place between 25 and 31 May 2014, and use a wide range of oceanographic sensors. The dataset provides information on mesoscale and sub-mesoscale processes taking place in a frontal area. This paper presents the measurements obtained from these sensors and describes their particularities: scale, spatial and temporal resolutions, measured variables, etc.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ilaria Isola, Giovanni Zanchetta, Russell N. Drysdale, Eleonora Regattieri, Monica Bini, Petra Bajo, John C. Hellstrom, Ilaria Baneschi, Piero Lionello, Jon Woodhead, and Alan Greig
Clim. Past, 15, 135–151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-135-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-135-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
To understand the natural variability in the climate system, the hydrological aspect (dry and wet conditions) is particularly important for its impact on our societies. The reconstruction of past precipitation regimes can provide a useful tool for forecasting future climate changes. We use multi-proxy time series (oxygen and carbon isotopes, trace elements) from a speleothem to investigate circulation pattern variations and seasonality effects during the dry 4.2 ka event in central Italy.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Torben Schmith, Jacob Woge Nielsen, Till Andreas Soya Rasmussen, and Henrik Feddersen
Ocean Sci., 14, 1435–1447, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1435-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1435-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Using the Baltic Sea as an example, the benefit of increased wave model resolution as opposed to ensemble forecasting is examined, on the premise that the extra computational effort tends to be of the same order of magnitude in both cases. For offshore waters, an ensemble mean is shown to outperform high-resolution modeling. However, for nearshore or shallow waters, where fine-scale depth or coastal features gain importance, this is not necessarily found to be the case.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jaime Hernandez-Lasheras and Baptiste Mourre
Ocean Sci., 14, 1069–1084, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1069-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1069-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Different sampling strategies have been assessed in order to evaluate the most efficient configuration for the assimilation of high resolution measurements into a regional ocean model. The results show the capability of the model to ingest both large scale and high resolution observations and the improvement of the forecast fields. In particular, the configurations using eight gliders and the one assimilating CTDs show similar results and the give the best performance among all the simulations
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Reiner Onken, Heinz-Volker Fiekas, Laurent Beguery, Ines Borrione, Andreas Funk, Michael Hemming, Jaime Hernandez-Lasheras, Karen J. Heywood, Jan Kaiser, Michaela Knoll, Baptiste Mourre, Paolo Oddo, Pierre-Marie Poulain, Bastien Y. Queste, Aniello Russo, Kiminori Shitashima, Martin Siderius, and Elizabeth Thorp Küsel
Ocean Sci., 14, 321–335, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-321-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-321-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In June 2014, high-resolution oceanographic data were collected in the
western Mediterranean Sea by two research vessels, 11 gliders, moored
instruments, drifters, and one profiling float. The objective
of this article is to provide an overview of the data set which
is utilised by various ongoing studies, focusing on (i) water masses and circulation, (ii) operational forecasting, (iii) data assimilation, (iv) variability of the ocean, and (v) new payloads
for gliders.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Émilie Bresson, Philippe Arbogast, Lotfi Aouf, Denis Paradis, Anna Kortcheva, Andrey Bogatchev, Vasko Galabov, Marieta Dimitrova, Guillaume Morvan, Patrick Ohl, Boryana Tsenova, and Florence Rabier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 997–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-997-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-997-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Winds, waves and storm surges can inflict severe damage in coastal areas. To improve adaptability for such events, a better understanding of storm-induced coastal flooding events is necessary. This article is dedicated to evaluating wave and surge reconstruction methods based on available reanalyses data for French and Bulgarian coasts. This study shows that the wave and surge models should be forced by downscaled winds rather than modelled reanalyses.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lauren Marshall, Anja Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Ken S. Carslaw, Graham W. Mann, Michael Sigl, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Davide Zanchettin, William T. Ball, Slimane Bekki, James S. A. Brooke, Sandip Dhomse, Colin Johnson, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Allegra N. LeGrande, Michael J. Mills, Ulrike Niemeier, James O. Pope, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2307–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We use four global aerosol models to compare the simulated sulfate deposition from the 1815 Mt. Tambora eruption to ice core records. Inter-model volcanic sulfate deposition differs considerably. Volcanic sulfate deposited on polar ice sheets is used to estimate the atmospheric sulfate burden and subsequently radiative forcing of historic eruptions. Our results suggest that deriving such relationships from model simulations may be associated with greater uncertainties than previously thought.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium
Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited due to a paucity of modern instrumental observations. We review how proxy records of past climate and climate model simulations can be used in tandem to understand hydroclimate variability over the last 2000 years and how these tools can also inform risk assessments of future hydroclimatic extremes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Athanasios T. Vafeidis, Mark Schuerch, Claudia Wolff, Tom Spencer, Jan L. Merkens, Jochen Hinkel, Daniel Lincke, Sally Brown, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-199, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-199, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Global assessments of coastal flooding are based on the assumption that water propagation follows a
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
bathtubpattern across the floodplain. Using a global model we find that this assumption can lead to overestimation of impacts, with an uncertainty range that can be of equal magnitude to uncertainties related to future sea-level rise. Our results highlight the importance of improving the representation of the spatial/temporal variation of water levels across floodplains of different landcover.
Darren M. Lumbroso, Natalie R. Suckall, Robert J. Nicholls, and Kathleen D. White
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1357–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1357-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1357-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Recent coastal floods in the USA have highlighted a lack of resilience in poor communities. By researching successes from Bangladesh and Cuba, this paper details how lessons from these countries can reduce the vulnerability of less well-off or isolated American citizens to future coastal storm surges. The relevance of the lessons learnt from Cuba and Bangladesh to the USA was assessed. Transferable lessons include the importance of volunteerism and education in developing a “culture of safety”.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andrés Payo, David Favis-Mortlock, Mark Dickson, Jim W. Hall, Martin D. Hurst, Mike J. A. Walkden, Ian Townend, Matthew C. Ives, Robert J. Nicholls, and Michael A. Ellis
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2715–2740, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2715-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2715-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
CoastalME is a generic modelling environment to simulate coastal landscape evolution on spatial scales of kms to tens of kms, over decadal to centennial timescales. The novelty is that it simulates coastal morphology evolution as a set of dynamically linked raster and geometrical objects. Geometrical objects are derived from the raster structure providing a library of coastal elements (e.g. shoreline) that are conventionally used for modelling coastal behaviour on the timescales of interest.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Robert Marsh, Ivan D. Haigh, Stuart A. Cunningham, Mark E. Inall, Marie Porter, and Ben I. Moat
Ocean Sci., 13, 315–335, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-315-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-315-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
To the west of Britain and Ireland, a strong ocean current follows the steep slope that separates the deep Atlantic and the continental shelf. This “Slope Current” exerts an Atlantic influence on the North Sea and its ecosystems. Using a combination of computer modelling and archived data, we find that the Slope Current weakened over 1988–2007, reducing Atlantic influence on the North Sea, due to a combination of warming of the subpolar North Atlantic and weakening winds to the west of Scotland.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lidia Bressan, Andrea Valentini, Tiziana Paccagnella, Andrea Montani, Chiara Marsigli, and Maria Stefania Tesini
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 77–84, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-77-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-77-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the sensitivity of an oceanic model of the Adriatic Sea to the horizontal resolution and to the meteorological forcing. The model is run with two different configurations and with two horizontal grids at 1 and 2 km resolution. To study the influence of the meteorological forcing, the two storms have been reproduced by running ROMS in ensemble mode. Possible optimizations of the model set-up are deduced by the comparison of the different run outputs.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Antonio Sánchez-Román, Simón Ruiz, Ananda Pascual, Baptiste Mourre, and Stéphanie Guinehut
Ocean Sci., 13, 223–234, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-223-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-223-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this work we investigate the capability of the Argo array in the Mediterranean Sea to capture mesoscale circulation structures (diameter of around 150 km). To do that we conduct several experiments to simulate different spatial sampling configurations of the Argo array in the basin. Results show that the actual Argo array in the Mediterranean (2° × 2°) might be enlarged until a spatial resolution of nearly 75 × 75 km (450 floats) in order to capture the mesoscale signal.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nadia Pinardi, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Nicola Cardellicchio, Claudio Caporale, Stefania Ciliberti, Giovanni Coppini, Francesca De Pascalis, Lorenzo Dialti, Ivan Federico, Marco Filippone, Alessandro Grandi, Matteo Guideri, Rita Lecci, Lamberto Lamberti, Giuliano Lorenzetti, Paolo Lusiani, Cosimo Damiano Macripo, Francesco Maicu, Michele Mossa, Diego Tartarini, Francesco Trotta, Georg Umgiesser, and Luca Zaggia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2623–2639, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2623-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2623-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
A multiscale sampling experiment was carried out in the Gulf of Taranto (eastern Mediterranean) providing the first synoptic evidence of the large-scale circulation structure and associated mesoscale variability. The circulation is shown to be dominated by an anticyclonic gyre and upwelling areas at the gyre periphery.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Davide Zanchettin, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Anja Schmidt, Edwin P. Gerber, Gabriele Hegerl, Alan Robock, Francesco S. R. Pausata, William T. Ball, Susanne E. Bauer, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham W. Mann, Lauren Marshall, Michael Mills, Marion Marchand, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Eugene Rozanov, Angelo Rubino, Andrea Stenke, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2701–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Simulating volcanically-forced climate variability is a challenging task for climate models. The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to volcanic forcing (VolMIP) – an endorsed contribution to CMIP6 – defines a protocol for idealized volcanic-perturbation experiments to improve comparability of results across different climate models. This paper illustrates the design of VolMIP's experiments and describes the aerosol forcing input datasets to be used.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andrea Cucco, Giovanni Quattrocchi, Antonio Olita, Leopoldo Fazioli, Alberto Ribotti, Matteo Sinerchia, Costanza Tedesco, and Roberto Sorgente
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1553–1569, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1553-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1553-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This work explored the importance of considering the tidal dynamics when modelling the general circulation in the Messina Strait, a narrow passage connecting the Tyrrhenian and the Ionian Sea sub-basins in the Western Mediterranean Sea. The results highlight that tidal dynamics deeply impact the reproduction of the instantaneous and residual circulation pattern, waters thermohaline properties and transport dynamics both inside the Messina Strait and in the surrounding coastal and open waters.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marcos García Sotillo, Emilio Garcia-Ladona, Alejandro Orfila, Pablo Rodríguez-Rubio, José Cristobal Maraver, Daniel Conti, Elena Padorno, José Antonio Jiménez, Este Capó, Fernando Pérez, Juan Manuel Sayol, Francisco Javier de los Santos, Arancha Amo, Ana Rietz, Charles Troupin, Joaquín Tintore, and Enrique Álvarez-Fanjul
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 141–149, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-141-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-141-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
An intensive drifter deployment was carried out in the Strait of Gibraltar: 35 satellite tracked drifters were released, coordinating to this aim 4 boats, covering an area of about 680 NM2 in 6 hours. This MEDESS-GIB Experiment is the most important exercise in the Mediterranean in terms of number of drifters released. The MEDESS-GIB dataset provides a complete Lagrangian view of the surface inflow of Atlantic waters through the Strait of Gibraltar and its later evolution along the Alboran Sea.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Georg Umgiesser, Petras Zemlys, Ali Erturk, Arturas Razinkova-Baziukas, Jovita Mėžinė, and Christian Ferrarin
Ocean Sci., 12, 391–402, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-391-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-391-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The paper explores the importance of physical forcing on the exchange mechanisms and the renewal time in the Curonian Lagoon over 10 years. The influence of ice cover on the exchange rates has been explored. Finally, the influence of water level fluctuations and river discharge has been studied. It has been found that ice cover is surprisingly not very important for changes in renewal time. The single most important factor is river discharge.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
M. D. Harley, A. Valentini, C. Armaroli, L. Perini, L. Calabrese, and P. Ciavola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 209–222, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-209-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-209-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The performance of a state-of-the-art early-warning system for the coastline of Emilia-Romagna in northern Italy is rigorously assessed with regards to a major storm event that occurred in October 2012. It is found that such a system has great potential as a new tool for coastal management, following several improvements to the forecast model chain. What-if scenarios in terms of the construction of artificial dunes prior to this event suggest that this may have helped minimize storm impacts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
J. Armstrong, R. Wilby, and R. J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2511–2524, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2511-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2511-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A criterion to categorise climate change adaptation frameworks is presented denoting characteristics of three key frameworks established in the literature: scenario–led, decision-centric and vulnerability–led. Applying the criterion, the usability of frameworks is examined in coastal Suffolk. Results indicate adaptation frameworks established in the literature are not utilised in isolation in everyday practice. In reality, hybrid approaches are utilised to overcome aspects of framework weakness.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
M. P. Wadey, J. M. Brown, I. D. Haigh, T. Dolphin, and P. Wisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2209–2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2209-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2209-2015, 2015
A. J. Stevens, D. Clarke, R. J. Nicholls, and M. P. Wadey
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1215–1229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1215-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1215-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Using census data, historic maps and hydrodynamic modelling, this paper presents a methodology for assessing how the exposure of people to flooding has changed over the last 200 years at the local level in the UK. The method is applied to two case studies at Portsea and Hayling Islands in the UK's Solent region. The analysis shows that for the case studies, population rise has, to date, had a much greater influence on exposure than sea level rise.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
S. Mariani, M. Casaioli, E. Coraci, and P. Malguzzi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1–24, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In the HyMeX framework, an intercomparison study of two different configurations of the ISPRA hydro-meteo-marine forecasting system (SIMM) has been performed to assess the forecast skill in predicting high precipitations and very intense storm surges over the northern Adriatic Sea (acqua alta). The results show an objective added value of the use of high-resolution meteorological models, and they suggest the opportunity to develop a time-lagged multi-model ensemble for the acqua alta prediction.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
M. P. Wadey, I. D. Haigh, and J. M. Brown
Ocean Sci., 10, 1031–1045, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-1031-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-1031-2014, 2014
M.-H. Rio, A. Pascual, P.-M. Poulain, M. Menna, B. Barceló, and J. Tintoré
Ocean Sci., 10, 731–744, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-731-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-731-2014, 2014
A. Olita, S. Sparnocchia, S. Cusí, L. Fazioli, R. Sorgente, J. Tintoré, and A. Ribotti
Ocean Sci., 10, 657–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-657-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-657-2014, 2014
P. Malanotte-Rizzoli, V. Artale, G. L. Borzelli-Eusebi, S. Brenner, A. Crise, M. Gacic, N. Kress, S. Marullo, M. Ribera d'Alcalà, S. Sofianos, T. Tanhua, A. Theocharis, M. Alvarez, Y. Ashkenazy, A. Bergamasco, V. Cardin, S. Carniel, G. Civitarese, F. D'Ortenzio, J. Font, E. Garcia-Ladona, J. M. Garcia-Lafuente, A. Gogou, M. Gregoire, D. Hainbucher, H. Kontoyannis, V. Kovacevic, E. Kraskapoulou, G. Kroskos, A. Incarbona, M. G. Mazzocchi, M. Orlic, E. Ozsoy, A. Pascual, P.-M. Poulain, W. Roether, A. Rubino, K. Schroeder, J. Siokou-Frangou, E. Souvermezoglou, M. Sprovieri, J. Tintoré, and G. Triantafyllou
Ocean Sci., 10, 281–322, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-281-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-281-2014, 2014
B. Pérez, A. Payo, D. López, P. L. Woodworth, and E. Alvarez Fanjul
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 589–610, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-589-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-589-2014, 2014
O. Bothe, J. H. Jungclaus, and D. Zanchettin
Clim. Past, 9, 2471–2487, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013, 2013
M. Reale and P. Lionello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1707–1722, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1707-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1707-2013, 2013
P. Zemlys, C. Ferrarin, G. Umgiesser, S. Gulbinskas, and D. Bellafiore
Ocean Sci., 9, 573–584, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-573-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-573-2013, 2013
J. F. Breilh, E. Chaumillon, X. Bertin, and M. Gravelle
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1595–1612, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1595-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1595-2013, 2013
A. Sanna, P. Lionello, and S. Gualdi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1567–1577, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1567-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1567-2013, 2013
O. Bothe, J. H. Jungclaus, D. Zanchettin, and E. Zorita
Clim. Past, 9, 1089–1110, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1089-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1089-2013, 2013
C. Ferrarin, M. Ghezzo, G. Umgiesser, D. Tagliapietra, E. Camatti, L. Zaggia, and A. Sarretta
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1733–1748, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1733-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1733-2013, 2013
R. Mel, A. Sterl, and P. Lionello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1135–1142, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1135-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1135-2013, 2013
J. Segschneider, A. Beitsch, C. Timmreck, V. Brovkin, T. Ilyina, J. Jungclaus, S. J. Lorenz, K. D. Six, and D. Zanchettin
Biogeosciences, 10, 669–687, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-669-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-669-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Sea, Ocean and Coastal Hazards
Brief communication: From modelling to reality – flood modelling gaps highlighted by a recent severe storm surge event along the German Baltic Sea coast
Inundation and evacuation of shoreline populations during landslide-triggered tsunamis: an integrated numerical and statistical hazard assessment
Rapid simulation of wave runup on morphologically diverse, reef-lined coasts with the BEWARE-2 (Broad-range Estimator of Wave Attack in Reef Environments) meta-process model
A brief history of tsunamis in the Vanuatu Arc
Tsunami inundation and vulnerability analysis on the Makran coast, Pakistan
Influence of data source and copula statistics on estimates of compound flood extremes in a river mouth environment
Volcano tsunamis and their effects on moored vessel safety: the 2022 Tonga event
Modelling tsunami initial conditions due to rapid coseismic seafloor displacement: efficient numerical integration and a tool to build unit source databases
Estuarine hurricane wind can intensify surge-dominated extreme water level in shallow and converging coastal systems
Revisiting regression methods for estimating long-term trends in sea surface temperature
Global application of a regional frequency analysis to extreme sea levels
Tsunami hazard assessment in the South China Sea based on geodetic locking of the Manila subduction zone
The impact of long-term changes in ocean waves and storm surge on coastal shoreline change: a case study of Bass Strait and south-east Australia
Brief communication: Implications of outstanding solitons for the occurrence of rogue waves at two additional sites in the North Sea
A systemic and comprehensive assessment of coastal hazard changes: method and application to France and its overseas territories
Regional modelling of extreme sea levels induced by hurricanes
Simulating sea level extremes from synthetic low-pressure systems
Nonlinear processes in tsunami simulations for the Peruvian coast with focus on Lima and Callao
Dynamic Projections of Extreme Sea Levels for western Europe based on Ocean and Wind-wave Modelling
The potential of global coastal flood risk reduction using various DRR measures
Thresholds for estuarine compound flooding using a combined hydrodynamic–statistical modelling approach
New insights into combined surfzone and estuarine bathing hazards
Nearshore tsunami amplitudes across the Maldives archipelago due to worst-case seismic scenarios in the Indian Ocean
Evidence of Middle Holocene landslide-generated tsunamis recorded in lake sediments from Saqqaq, West Greenland
Investigation of historical severe storms and storm tides in the German Bight with century reanalysis data
Proposal for a new meteotsunami intensity index
Total water levels along the South Atlantic Bight during three along-shelf propagating tropical cyclones: relative contributions of storm surge and wave runup
Validated probabilistic approach to estimate flood direct impacts on the population and assets on European coastlines
Hurricane Irma: an unprecedented event over the last 3700 years? Geomorphological changes and sedimentological record in Codrington Lagoon, Barbuda
Bayesian extreme value analysis of extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast using historical information
Storm characteristics influence nitrogen removal in an urban estuarine environment
A new European coastal flood database for low–medium intensity events
Boulder transport and wave height of a seventeenth-century South China Sea tsunami on Penghu Islands, Taiwan
A wave-resolving modeling study of rip current variability, rip hazard, and swimmer escape strategies on an embayed beach
Human displacements from Tropical Cyclone Idai attributable to climate change
Changing Sea Level, Changing Shorelines: Comparison of Remote Sensing Observations at the Terschelling Barrier Island
Three decades of coastal subsidence in the slow-moving Nice Côte d'Azur Airport area (France) revealed by InSAR (interferometric synthetic-aperture radar): insights into the deformation mechanism
Modelling extreme water levels using intertidal topography and bathymetry derived from multispectral satellite images
Regional assessment of extreme sea levels and associated coastal flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast
Joint probability analysis of storm surges and waves caused by tropical cyclones for the estimation of protection standard: a case study on the eastern coast of the Leizhou Peninsula and the island of Hainan in China
Meteotsunami in the United Kingdom: the hidden hazard
Climate-induced storminess forces major increases in future storm surge hazard in the South China Sea region
Assessing Typhoon Soulik-induced morphodynamics over the Mokpo coastal region in South Korea based on a geospatial approach
Bayesian hierarchical modelling of sea-level extremes in the Finnish coastal region
Assessing the coastal hazard of Medicane Ianos through ensemble modelling
A predictive equation for wave setup using genetic programming
Contribution of solitons to enhanced rogue wave occurrence in shallow depths: a case study in the southern North Sea
Compound flood events: analysing the joint occurrence of extreme river discharge events and storm surges in northern and central Europe
Improvements to the detection and analysis of external surges in the North Sea
Optimal probabilistic placement of facilities using a surrogate model for 3D tsunami simulations
Joshua Kiesel, Claudia Wolff, and Marvin Lorenz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3841–3849, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3841-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3841-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In October 2023, one of the strongest storm surges on record hit the southwestern Baltic Sea coast, causing severe impacts in the German federal state of Schleswig-Holstein, including dike failures. Recent studies on coastal flooding from the same region align well with the October 2023 surge, with differences in peak water levels of less than 30 cm. This rare coincidence is used to assess current capabilities and limitations of coastal flood modelling and derive key areas for future research.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Emmie Malika Bonilauri, Catherine Aaron, Matteo Cerminara, Raphaël Paris, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Benedetta Calusi, Domenico Mangione, and Andrew John Lang Harris
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3789–3813, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3789-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Currently on the island of Stromboli, only 4 min of warning time is available for a locally generated tsunami. We combined tsunami simulations and human exposure to complete a risk analysis. We linked the predicted inundation area and the tsunami warning signals to assess the hazard posed by future tsunamis and to design escape routes to reach safe areas and to optimise evacuation times. Such products can be used by civil protection agencies on Stromboli.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Robert McCall, Curt Storlazzi, Floortje Roelvink, Stuart G. Pearson, Roel de Goede, and José A. Á. Antolínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3597–3625, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate predictions of wave-driven flooding are essential to manage risk on low-lying, reef-lined coasts. Models to provide this information are, however, computationally expensive. We present and validate a modeling system that simulates flood drivers on diverse and complex reef-lined coasts as competently as a full-physics model but at a fraction of the computational cost to run. This development paves the way for application in large-scale early-warning systems and flood risk assessments.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jean H. M. Roger and Bernard Pelletier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3461–3478, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3461-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3461-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a catalogue of tsunamis that occurred in the Vanuatu Arc. It has been built based on the analysis of existing catalogues, historical documents, and sea-level data from five coastal tide gauges. Since 1863, 100 tsunamis of local, regional, or far-field origins have been listed; 15 of them show maximum wave amplitudes and/or run-up heights of above 1 m, and 8 are between 0.3 and 1 m. Details are provided for particular events, including debated events or events with no known origin(s).
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Rashid Haider, Sajid Ali, Gösta Hoffmann, and Klaus Reicherter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3279–3290, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3279-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The coastlines bordering the Arabian Sea have yielded various tsunamites reflecting its high hazard potential and recurrences. My PhD project aims at the estimation and zonation of the hazards and risks associated with. This publication is a continuation of the previous publication (Haider et al., 2023), which focused on hazard estimation through a multi-proxy approach. This part of the study estimates the risk potential through integrated tsunami inundation analysis.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Kévin Dubois, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Martin Drews, Erik Nilsson, and Anna Rutgersson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3245–3265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3245-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Both extreme river discharge and storm surges can interact at the coast and lead to flooding. However, it is difficult to predict flood levels during such compound events because they are rare and complex. Here, we focus on the quantification of uncertainties and investigate the sources of limitations while carrying out such analyses at Halmstad, Sweden. Based on a sensitivity analysis, we emphasize that both the choice of data source and statistical methodology influence the results.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sergio Padilla, Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga, Rachid Omira, Mauricio González, Jihwan Kim, and Maria A. Baptista
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3095–3113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3095-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3095-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The eruption of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcano in January 2022 triggered a global phenomenon, including an atmospheric wave and a volcano-meteorological tsunami (VMT). The tsunami, reaching as far as Callao, Peru, 10 000 km away, caused significant coastal impacts. This study delves into understanding these effects, particularly on vessel mooring safety. The findings underscore the importance of enhancing early warning systems and preparing port authorities for managing such rare events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alice Abbate, José M. González Vida, Manuel J. Castro Díaz, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, Andrey Babeyko, and Stefano Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2773–2791, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling tsunami generation due to a rapid submarine earthquake is a complex problem. Under a variety of realistic conditions in a subduction zone, we propose and test an efficient solution to this problem: a tool that can compute the generation of any potential tsunami in any ocean in the world. In the future, we will explore solutions that would also allow us to model tsunami generation by slower (time-dependent) seafloor displacement.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mithun Deb, James J. Benedict, Ning Sun, Zhaoqing Yang, Robert D. Hetland, David Judi, and Taiping Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2461–2479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2461-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2461-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We coupled earth system, hydrology, and hydrodynamic models to generate plausible and physically consistent ensembles of hurricane events and their associated water levels from the open coast to tidal rivers of Delaware Bay and River. Our results show that the hurricane landfall locations and the estuarine wind can significantly amplify the extreme surge in a shallow and converging system, especially when the wind direction aligns with the surge propagation direction.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ming-Huei Chang, Yen-Chen Huang, Yu-Hsin Cheng, Chuen-Teyr Terng, Jinyi Chen, and Jyh Cherng Jan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2481–2494, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2481-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring the long-term trends in sea surface warming is crucial for informed decision-making and adaptation. This study offers a comprehensive examination of prevalent trend extraction methods. We identify the least-squares regression as suitable for general tasks yet highlight the need to address seasonal signal-induced bias, i.e., the phase–distance imbalance. Our developed method, evaluated using simulated and real data, is unbiased and better than the conventional SST anomaly method.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Thomas P. Collings, Niall D. Quinn, Ivan D. Haigh, Joshua Green, Izzy Probyn, Hamish Wilkinson, Sanne Muis, William V. Sweet, and Paul D. Bates
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2403–2423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are at risk of flooding from rising sea levels and extreme weather events. This study applies a new approach to estimating the likelihood of coastal flooding around the world. The method uses data from observations and computer models to create a detailed map of where these coastal floods might occur. The approach can predict flooding in areas for which there are few or no data available. The results can be used to help prepare for and prevent this type of flooding.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Guangsheng Zhao and Xiaojing Niu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2303–2313, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The purpose of this study is to estimate the spatial distribution of the tsunami hazard in the South China Sea from the Manila subduction zone. The plate motion data are used to invert the degree of locking on the fault plane. The degree of locking is used to estimate the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes and describe the slip distribution. A spatial distribution map of the 1000-year return period tsunami wave height in the South China Sea was obtained by tsunami hazard assessment.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mandana Ghanavati, Ian R. Young, Ebru Kirezci, and Jin Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2175–2190, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2175-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2175-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper examines the changes in shoreline position of the coast of south-east Australia over a 26-year period to determine whether changes are consistent with observed changes in ocean wave and storm surge climate. The results show that in regions where there have been significant changes in wave energy flux or wave direction, there have also been changes in shoreline position consistent with non-equilibrium longshore drift.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ina Teutsch, Ralf Weisse, and Sander Wahls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2065–2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate buoy and radar measurement data from shallow depths in the southern North Sea. We analyze the role of solitons for the occurrence of rogue waves. This is done by computing the nonlinear soliton spectrum of each time series. In a previous study that considered a single measurement site, we found a connection between the shape of the soliton spectrum and the occurrence of rogue waves. In this study, results for two additional sites are reported.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marc Igigabel, Marissa Yates, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Youssef Diab
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in sea levels alone do not determine the evolution of coastal hazards. Coastal hazard changes should be assessed using additional factors describing geomorphological configurations, metocean event types (storms, cyclones, long swells, and tsunamis), and the marine environment (e.g., coral reef state and sea ice extent). The assessment completed here, at regional scale including the coasts of mainland and overseas France, highlights significant differences in hazard changes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Melisa Menéndez, Marta Ramírez-Pérez, and Alexandra Toimil
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-100, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-100, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones drive extreme sea levels, causing large storm surges due to low atmospheric pressure and strong winds. This study explores factors affecting the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic. Two ocean models are compared and used for sensitivity experiments. ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis forcing generally improves storm surge estimates compared to parametric wind models. Including ocean circulations reduces errors in storm surge estimates.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jani Särkkä, Jani Räihä, Mika Rantanen, and Matti Kämäräinen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1835–1842, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1835-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1835-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We study the relationship between tracks of low-pressure systems and related sea level extremes. We perform the studies by introducing a method to simulate sea levels using synthetic low-pressure systems. We test the method using sites located along the Baltic Sea coast. We find high extremes, where the sea level extreme reaches up to 3.5 m. In addition, we add the maximal value of the mean level of the Baltic Sea (1 m), leading to a sea level of 4.5 m.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexey Androsov, Sven Harig, Natalia Zamora, Kim Knauer, and Natalja Rakowsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1635–1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Two numerical codes are used in a comparative analysis of the calculation of the tsunami wave due to an earthquake along the Peruvian coast. The comparison primarily evaluates the flow velocity fields in flooded areas. The relative importance of the various parts of the equations is determined, focusing on the nonlinear terms. The influence of the nonlinearity on the degree and volume of flooding, flow velocity, and small-scale fluctuations is determined.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Angélique Melet, Aurore Voldoire, Guillaume Reffray, Stéphane Law-Chune, and Lotfi Aouf
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1061, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1061, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change induced sea level rise increases the frequency of extreme sea levels. This paper presents regional projections of extreme sea levels for western Europe produced with high-resolution models (~6 km). Unlike commonly used coarse-scale global climate models, this approach allows to simulate key processes driving coastal sea level variations such as long-term sea level rise, tides, storm surges induced by low atmospheric surface pressure and winds, waves, and their interactions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Eric Mortensen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Toon Haer, Bas van Bemmel, Dewi Le Bars, Sanne Muis, Dirk Eilander, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Arno Bouwman, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1381–1400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Current levels of coastal flood risk are projected to increase in coming decades due to various reasons, e.g. sea-level rise, land subsidence, and coastal urbanization: action is needed to minimize this future risk. We evaluate dykes and coastal levees, foreshore vegetation, zoning restrictions, and dry-proofing on a global scale to estimate what levels of risk reductions are possible. We demonstrate that there are several potential adaptation pathways forward for certain areas of the world.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Charlotte Lyddon, Nguyen Chien, Grigorios Vasilopoulos, Michael Ridgill, Sogol Moradian, Agnieszka Olbert, Thomas Coulthard, Andrew Barkwith, and Peter Robins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 973–997, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent storms in the UK, like Storm Ciara in 2020, show how vulnerable estuaries are to the combined effect of sea level and river discharge. We show the combinations of sea levels and river discharges that cause flooding in the Conwy estuary, N Wales. The results showed flooding was amplified under moderate conditions in the middle estuary and elsewhere sea state or river flow dominated the hazard. Combined sea and river thresholds can improve prediction and early warning of compound flooding.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Christopher Stokes, Timothy Poate, Gerd Masselink, Tim Scott, and Steve Instance
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-482, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-482, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Currents at beaches with an estuary mouth have rarely been studied before. Using field measurements and computer modelling, we show that surfzone currents can be driven by both estuary flow and rip currents. We show that an estuary mouth beach can have flows reaching 1.5 m/s and have a high likelihood of taking bathers out of the surfzone. The river channels on the beach direct the flows and even though they change position over time, it was possible to predict when peak hazards would occur.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Shuaib Rasheed, Simon C. Warder, Yves Plancherel, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 737–755, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here we use a high-resolution bathymetry dataset of the Maldives archipelago, as well as corresponding high numerical model resolution, to carry out a scenario-based tsunami hazard assessment for the entire Maldives archipelago to investigate the potential impact of plausible far-field tsunamis across the Indian Ocean at the island scale. The results indicate that several factors contribute to mitigating and amplifying tsunami waves at the island scale.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Niels J. Korsgaard, Kristian Svennevig, Anne S. Søndergaard, Gregor Luetzenburg, Mimmi Oksman, and Nicolaj K. Larsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 757–772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A tsunami wave will leave evidence of erosion and deposition in coastal lakes, making it possible to determine the runup height and when it occurred. Here, we use four lakes now located at elevations of 19–91 m a.s.l. close to the settlement of Saqqaq, West Greenland, to show that at least two giant tsunamis occurred 7300–7600 years ago with runup heights larger than 40 m. We infer that any tsunamis from at least nine giga-scale landslides must have happened 8500–10 000 years ago.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Elke Magda Inge Meyer and Lidia Gaslikova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 481–499, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Storm tides for eight extreme historical storms in the German Bight are modelled using sets of slightly varying atmospheric conditions from the century reanalyses. Comparisons with the water level observations from the gauges Norderney, Cuxhaven and Husum show that single members of the reanalyses are suitable for the reconstruction of extreme storms. Storms with more northerly tracks show less variability within a set and have more potential for accurate reconstruction of extreme water levels.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Clare Lewis, Tim Smyth, Jess Neumann, and Hannah Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 121–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Meteotsunami are the result of atmospheric disturbances and can impact coastlines causing injury, loss of life, and damage to assets. This paper introduces a novel intensity index to allow for the quantification of these events at the shoreline. This has the potential to assist in the field of natural hazard assessment. It was trialled in the UK but designed for global applicability and to become a widely accepted standard in coastal planning, meteotsunami forecasting, and early warning systems.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Chu-En Hsu, Katherine A. Serafin, Xiao Yu, Christie A. Hegermiller, John C. Warner, and Maitane Olabarrieta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3895–3912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Total water levels (TWLs) induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the leading hazards faced by coastal communities. Using numerical models, we examined how TWL components (surge and wave runup) along the South Atlantic Bight varied during hurricanes Matthew (2016), Dorian (2019), and Isaias (2020). Peak surge and peak wave runup were dominated by wind speeds and relative positions to TCs. The exceedance time of TWLs was controlled by normalized distances to TC and TC translation speeds.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Enrico Duo, Juan Montes, Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-197, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The present work, developed within the EU H2020 European Coastal Flood Awareness System ECFAS project, presents an approach used to estimate coastal flood direct impacts on population, buildings, and roads along the European coasts. The findings demonstrate that the ECFAS Impact approach offers valuable estimates for affected populations, reliable damage assessments for buildings and roads, and improved accuracy compared to traditional grid-based approaches.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Maude Biguenet, Eric Chaumillon, Pierre Sabatier, Antoine Bastien, Emeline Geba, Fabien Arnaud, Thibault Coulombier, and Nathalie Feuillet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3761–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work documents the impact of Hurricane Irma (2017) on the Codrington barrier and lagoon on Barbuda Island. Irma caused two wide breaches in the sandy barrier, which remained unopened for 250 years. The thick and extensive sand sheet at the top of the lagoon fill was attributed to Irma. This unique deposit in a 3700-year record confirms Irma's exceptional character. This case study illustrates the consequences of high-intensity hurricanes in low-lying islands in a global warming context.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Leigh Richard MacPherson, Arne Arns, Svenja Fischer, Fernando Javier Méndez, and Jürgen Jensen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3685–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Efficient adaptation planning for coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels requires accurate assessments of the underlying hazard. Tide-gauge data alone are often insufficient for providing the desired accuracy but may be supplemented with historical information. We estimate extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast and show that relying solely on tide-gauge data leads to underestimations. Incorporating historical information leads to improved estimates with reduced uncertainties.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Anne Margaret H. Smiley, Suzanne P. Thompson, Nathan S. Hall, and Michael F. Piehler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3635–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floodwaters can deliver reactive nitrogen to sensitive aquatic systems and diminish water quality. We assessed the nitrogen removal capabilities of flooded habitats and urban landscapes. Differences in processing rates across land cover treatments and between nutrient treatments suggest that abundance and spatial distributions of habitats, as well as storm characteristics, influence landscape-scale nitrogen removal. Results have important implications for coastal development and climate change.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Enrico Duo, Juan Montes Perez, Paulo Cabrita, Paola Souto Ceccon, Véra Gastal, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3585–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing coastal hazards is crucial to mitigate flooding disasters. In this regard, coastal flood databases are valuable tools. This paper describes a new coastal flood map catalogue covering the entire European coastline, as well as the methodology to build it and its accuracy. The catalogue focuses on frequent extreme events and relies on synthetic scenarios estimated from local storm conditions. Flood-prone areas and regions sensitive to storm duration and water level peak were identified.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Neng-Ti Yu, Cheng-Hao Lu, I-Chin Yen, Jia-Hong Chen, Jiun-Yee Yen, and Shyh-Jeng Chyi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3525–3542, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A paleotsunami deposit of cliff-top basalt debris was identified on the Penghu Islands in the southern Taiwan Strait and related to the 1661 earthquake in southwest Taiwan. A minimum wave height of 3.2 m is estimated to have rotated the biggest boulder for over 30 m landwards onto the cliff top at 2.5 m a.s.l. The event must have been huge compared to the 1994 M 6.4 earthquake with the ensuing 0.4 m high tsunami in the same area, validating the intimidating tsunami risks in the South China Sea.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ye Yuan, Huaiwei Yang, Fujiang Yu, Yi Gao, Benxia Li, and Chuang Xing
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3487–3507, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rip currents are narrow jets of offshore-directed flow that originated in the surf zone, which can take swimmers of all ability levels into deeper water unawares. In this study, a 1 m fine-resolution wave-resolving model was configured to study rip current variability and the optimal swimmer escape strategies. Multiple factors contribute to the survival of swimmers. However, for weak-to-moderate rip and longshore currents, swimming onshore consistently seems to be the most successful strategy.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Benedikt Mester, Thomas Vogt, Seth Bryant, Christian Otto, Katja Frieler, and Jacob Schewe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3467–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In 2019, Cyclone Idai displaced more than 478 000 people in Mozambique. In our study, we use coastal flood modeling and satellite imagery to construct a counterfactual cyclone event without the effects of climate change. We show that 12 600–14 900 displacements can be attributed to sea level rise and the intensification of storm wind speeds due to global warming. Our impact attribution study is the first one on human displacement and one of very few for a low-income country.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Bene Aschenneller, Roelof Rietbroek, and Daphne van der Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2320, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2320, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Shorelines retreat or advanve in response to sea level changes, subsidence or uplift of the ground, and morphological processes (sedimentation and erosion). We show that the geometrical influence of each of these drivers on shoreline movements can be quantified by combining different remote sensing observations, including radar altimetry, LiDAR and optical satellite images. The focus here is to illustrate the uncertainties of these observations by comparing datasets that cover similar processes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Olivier Cavalié, Frédéric Cappa, and Béatrice Pinel-Puysségur
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3235–3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3235-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are fragile ecosystems that face multiple hazards. In this study, we measured the downward motion of the Nice Côte d'Azur Airport (France) that was built on reclaimed area and found that it has subsided from 16 mm yr-1 in the 1990s to 8 mm yr-1 today. A continuous remote monitoring of the platform will provide key data for a detailed investigation of future subsidence maps, and this contribution will help to evaluate the potential failure of part of the airport platform.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Wagner L. L. Costa, Karin R. Bryan, and Giovanni Coco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3125–3146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For predicting flooding events at the coast, topo-bathymetric data are essential. However, elevation data can be unavailable. To tackle this issue, recent efforts have centred on the use of satellite-derived topography (SDT) and bathymetry (SDB). This work is aimed at evaluating their accuracy and use for flooding prediction in enclosed estuaries. Results show that the use of SDT and SDB in numerical modelling can produce similar predictions when compared to the surveyed elevation data.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Joshua Kiesel, Marvin Lorenz, Marcel König, Ulf Gräwe, and Athanasios T. Vafeidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2961–2985, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Among the Baltic Sea littoral states, Germany is anticipated to experience considerable damage as a result of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise (SLR). Here we apply a new modelling framework to simulate how flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast may change until 2100 if dikes are not upgraded. We find that the study region is highly exposed to flooding, and we emphasise the importance of current plans to update coastal protection in the future.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Zhang Haixia, Cheng Meng, and Fang Weihua
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2697–2717, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2697-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2697-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Simultaneous storm surge and waves can cause great damage due to cascading effects. Quantitative joint probability analysis is critical to determine their optimal protection design values. The joint probability of the surge and wave for the eastern coasts of Leizhou Peninsula and Hainan are estimated with a Gumbel copula based on 62 years of numerically simulated data, and the optimal design values under various joint return periods are derived using the non-linear programming method.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Clare Lewis, Tim Smyth, David Williams, Jess Neumann, and Hannah Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2531–2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2531-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2531-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Meteotsunami are globally occurring water waves initiated by atmospheric disturbances. Previous research has suggested that in the UK, meteotsunami are a rare phenomenon and tend to occur in the summer months. This article presents a revised and updated catalogue of 98 meteotsunami that occurred between 1750 and 2022. Results also demonstrate a larger percentage of winter events and a geographical pattern highlighting the
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
hotspotregions that experience these events.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Robert J. Nicholls, and Nadia Bloemendaal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2475–2504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We used a novel database of simulated tropical cyclone tracks to explore whether typhoon-induced storm surges present a future flood risk to low-lying coastal communities around the South China Sea. We found that future climate change is likely to change tropical cyclone behaviour to an extent that this increases the severity and frequency of storm surges to Vietnam, southern China, and Thailand. Consequently, coastal flood defences need to be reviewed for resilience against this future hazard.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sang-Guk Yum, Moon-Soo Song, and Manik Das Adhikari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2449–2474, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2449-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2449-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study performed analysis on typhoon-induced coastal morphodynamics for the Mokpo coast. Wetland vegetation was severely impacted by Typhoon Soulik, with 87.35 % of shoreline transects experiencing seaward migration. This result highlights the fact that sediment resuspension controls the land alteration process over the typhoon period. The land accretion process dominated during the pre- to post-typhoon periods.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Olle Räty, Marko Laine, Ulpu Leijala, Jani Särkkä, and Milla M. Johansson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2403–2418, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2403-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2403-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We studied annual maximum sea levels in the Finnish coastal region. Our aim was to better quantify the uncertainty in them compared to previous studies. Using four statistical models, we found out that hierarchical models, which shared information on sea-level extremes across Finnish tide gauges, had lower uncertainty in their results in comparison with tide-gauge-specific fits. These models also suggested that the shape of the distribution for extreme sea levels is similar on the Finnish coast.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Christian Ferrarin, Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Marco Bajo, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Elenio Avolio, Diego S. Carrió, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Claudio Sanchez, Platon Patlakas, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2273–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The combined use of meteorological and ocean models enabled the analysis of extreme sea conditions driven by Medicane Ianos, which hit the western coast of Greece on 18 September 2020, flooding and damaging the coast. The large spread associated with the ensemble highlighted the high model uncertainty in simulating such an extreme weather event. The different simulations have been used for outlining hazard scenarios that represent a fundamental component of the coastal risk assessment.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Charline Dalinghaus, Giovanni Coco, and Pablo Higuera
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2157–2169, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wave setup is a critical component of coastal flooding. Consequently, understanding and being able to predict wave setup is vital to protect coastal resources and the population living near the shore. Here, we applied machine learning to improve the accuracy of present predictors of wave setup. The results show that the new predictors outperform existing formulas demonstrating the capability of machine learning models to provide a physically sound description of wave setup.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ina Teutsch, Markus Brühl, Ralf Weisse, and Sander Wahls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2053–2073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2053-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rogue waves exceed twice the significant wave height. They occur more often than expected in the shallow waters off Norderney. When applying a nonlinear Fourier transform for the Korteweg–de Vries equation to wave data from Norderney, we found differences in the soliton spectra of time series with and without rogue waves. A strongly outstanding soliton in the spectrum indicated an enhanced probability for rogue waves. We could attribute spectral solitons to the measured rogue waves.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Philipp Heinrich, Stefan Hagemann, Ralf Weisse, Corinna Schrum, Ute Daewel, and Lidia Gaslikova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1967–1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1967-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1967-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
High seawater levels co-occurring with high river discharges have the potential to cause destructive flooding. For the past decades, the number of such compound events was larger than expected by pure chance for most of the west-facing coasts in Europe. Additionally rivers with smaller catchments showed higher numbers. In most cases, such events were associated with a large-scale weather pattern characterized by westerly winds and strong rainfall.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexander Böhme, Birgit Gerkensmeier, Benedikt Bratz, Clemens Krautwald, Olaf Müller, Nils Goseberg, and Gabriele Gönnert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1947–1966, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1947-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1947-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
External surges in the North Sea are caused by low-pressure cells travelling over the northeast Atlantic. They influence extreme water levels on the German coast and have to be considered in the design process of coastal defence structures. This study collects data about external surges from 1995–2020 and analyses their causes, behaviours and potential trends. External surges often occur less than 72 h apart, enabling a single storm surge to be influenced by more than one external surge.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Kenta Tozato, Shuji Moriguchi, Shinsuke Takase, Yu Otake, Michael R. Motley, Anawat Suppasri, and Kenjiro Terada
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1891–1909, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1891-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a framework that efficiently investigates the optimal placement of facilities probabilistically based on advanced numerical simulation. Surrogate models for the numerical simulation are constructed using a mode decomposition technique. Monte Carlo simulations using the surrogate models are performed to evaluate failure probabilities. Using the results of the Monte Carlo simulations and the genetic algorithm, optimal placements can be investigated probabilistically.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Cited articles
AAVV: Novembre 2019 un mese di maree eccezionali. Dinamica e anomalia
dell'evento del 12 novembre 2019, available at:
http://www.venezia.isprambiente.it/ispra/index.php?action=download&upload_id=173886
(last access: 16 June 2021), 2020.
Accerboni, E. and Manca, B.: Storm surge forecasting in the Adriatic Sea by
means of a two-dimensional hydrodynamical numerical model, Boll. Geofis. Teor. Ed. Appl., 15, 3–22, 1973.
Álvarez-Fanjul, E., Pérez-Gómez, B., and Rodríguez Sánchez Arévalo, I.: Nivmar: a storm surge forecasting system for Spanish waters, Sci. Mar., 65, 145–154,
https://doi.org/10.3989/scimar.2001.65s1145, 2001.
Artegiani, A., Azzolini, R., and Salusti, E.: On the dense water in the Adriatic Sea, Oceanol. Acta, 12, 151–160, 1989.
Artegiani, A., Paschini, E., Russo, A., Bregant, D., Raicich, F., and Pinardi, N.: The Adriatic Sea General Circulation. Part I: Air–Sea
Interactions and Water Mass Structure, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 27, 1492–1514, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1997)027<1492:tasgcp>2.0.co;2, 1997a.
Artegiani, A., Paschini, E., Russo, A., Bregant, D., Raicich, F., and Pinardi, N.: The Adriatic Sea General Circulation. Part II: Baroclinic
Circulation Structure, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 27, 1515–1532, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1997)027<1515:tasgcp>2.0.co;2, 1997b.
Backhaus, J. O. and Hainbucher, D.: A Finite Difference General Circulation
Model for Shelf Seas and Its Application to Low Frequency Variability on the
North European Shelf, in: Three-Dimensional Models of Marine and Estuarine Dynamics, Vol. 45, Elsevier Oceanogr. Ser., Elsevier, 221–244, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0422-9894(08)70450-1, 1987.
Bajo, M.: Improving storm surge forecast in Venice with a unidimensional Kalman filter, Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci., 239, 106773,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2020.106773, 2020.
Bajo, M. and Umgiesser, G.: Storm surge forecast through a combination of
dynamic and neural network models, Ocean Model., 33, 1–9,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2009.12.007, 2010.
Bajo, M., Zampato, L., Umgiesser, G., Cucco, A., and Canestrelli, P.: A
finite element operational model for storm surge prediction in Venice, Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci., 75, 236–249, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2007.02.025, 2007.
Bajo, M., De Biasio, F., Umgiesser, G., Vignudelli, S., and Zecchetto, S.:
Impact of using scatterometer and altimeter data on storm surge forecasting,
Ocean Model., 113, 85–94, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2017.03.014, 2017.
Bajo, M., Međugorac, I., Umgiesser, G., and Orlić, M.: Storm surge and
seiche modelling in the Adriatic Sea and the impact of data assimilation, Q.
J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 145, 2070–2084, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3544, 2019.
Baldin, G. and Crosato, F.: L'innalzamento del livello medio del mare a
Venezia: eustatismo e subsidenza, ISPRA Quad.-Ric. Mar., 10, 20 pp., ISBN 978-88-448-0861-7, 2017.
Barbano, A., Braca, G., Bussettini, M., Dessí, B., Inghilesi, R., Lastoria, B., Monacelli, G., Morucci, S., Piva, F., Sinapi, L., and
Spizzichino, D.: Proposta metodologica per l'aggiornamento delle mappe di
pericolosità e di rischio – Attuazione della Direttiva 2007/60/CE
relativa alla valutazione e alla gestione dei rischi da alluvioni, ISPRA, Rome, Italy, 2012.
Bargagli, A., Carillo, A., Pisacane, G., Ruti, P. M., Struglia, M. V., and
Tartaglione, N.: An Integrated Forecast System over the Mediterranean Basin:
Extreme Surge Prediction in the Northern Adriatic Sea, Mon. Weather Rev., 130, 1317–1332, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<1317:aifsot>2.0.co;2, 2002.
Beckers, J. V. L., Sprokkereef, E., and Roscoe, K. L.: Use of Bayesian model
averaging to determine uncertainties in river discharge and water level
forecasts, in: Proc. 4th InternationalSymposium on Flood Defence: Managing
Flood Risk, Reliability and Vulnerability, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, 2008.
Benzi, R., Fantini, M., Mantovani, R., and Speranza, A.: Orographic cyclogenesis in a saturated atmosphere and intense precipitation: baroclinic
modal solutions under the joint action of localized mountains and humidity,
Ann. Geofis., 40, 1579–1590, 1997.
Berg, P. and Poulsen, J. W.: Implementation details for HBM, in: DMI Tech. Rep. 12-11, Danish Meteorological Institute, available at:
https://www.dmi.dk/fileadmin/rapporter/tr/tr12-11.pdf (last access: 16 June 2021), 2012.
Berrelli, G., Leuzzi, G., and Purini, R.: Indagine sul sovralzo differenziato
indotto dalla bora nella laguna di Venezia, in: Atti del XXX Convegno di Idraulica e Costruzioni Idrauliche – IDRA 2006, Casa Ed. degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza, Rome, Italy, ISBN 9788887242812, 2006.
Berrelli, G., Leuzzi, G., and Purini, R.: On storm surges induced by the Bora
wind in the Lagoon of Venice, Int. J. Environ. Health, 1, 462–472, https://doi.org/10.1504/ijenvh.2007.017871, 2007.
Bertin, X., Li, K., Roland, A., and Bidlot, J.-R.: The contribution of short-waves in storm surges: Two case studies in the Bay of Biscay, Cont.
Shelf Res., 96, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2015.01.005, 2015.
Bignami, F., Salusti, E., and Schiarini, S.: Observations on a bottom vein of
dense water in the southern Adriatic and Ionian seas, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 7249, https://doi.org/10.1029/jc095ic05p07249, 1990a.
Bignami, F., Mattietti, G., Rotundi, A., and Salusti, E.: On a Sugimoto-Whitehead effect in the Mediterranean Sea: sinking and mixing of a
bottom current in the Bari Canyon, southern adriatic sea, Deep-Sea Res Pt. A, 37, 657–665, https://doi.org/10.1016/0198-0149(90)90096-e, 1990b.
Black, F.: Capital Market Equilibrium with Restricted Borrowing, J. Business, 45, 444–455, https://doi.org/10.1086/295472, 1972.
Bleck, R.: An oceanic general circulation model framed in hybrid isopycnic-Cartesian coordinates, Ocean Model., 4, 55–88,
https://doi.org/10.1016/s1463-5003(01)00012-9, 2002.
Book, J. W., Perkins, H., and Wimbush, M.: North Adriatic Tides: observations, variational data assimilation modeling, and linear tide dynamics, Geofizika, 26, 115–143, 2009.
Bozzi Zadro, M. and Poretti, G.: Analisi degli spettri complessi delle maree
marine registrate a Trieste, Geofis. E Meteorol., 20, 83–88, 1971.
Breilh, J. F., Bertin, X., Chaumillon, E., Giloy, N., and Sauzeau, T.: How
frequent is storm-induced flooding in the central part of the Bay of Biscay?, Global Planet. Change, 122, 161–175, 2014.
Buizza, R. and Palmer, T. N.: The Singular-Vector Structure of the Atmospheric Global Circulation, J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1434–1456,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1995)052<1434:tsvsot>2.0.co;2, 1995.
Buzzi, A. and Speranza, A.: A Theory of Deep Cyclogenesis in the Lee of the
Alps. Part II: Effects of Finite Topographic Slope and Height, J.
Atmos. Sci., 43, 2826–2837, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1986)043<2826:atodci>2.0.co;2, 1986.
Buzzi, A. and Tibaldi, S.: Cyclogenesis in the lee of the Alps: A case study, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 104, 271–287, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710444004, 1978.
Canestrelli, P. and Pastore, F.: Modelli stocastici per la previsione del
livello di marea a Venezia. in: Commissione di studio dei provvedimenti per
la conservazione e difesa della laguna e della città di Venezia, Rapp. E
Studi Venezia Ist. Veneto Sci. Lett. E Arti, 2, 635–663, 2000.
Carbognin, L., Teatini, P., and Tosi, L.: Eustacy and land subsidence in the
Venice Lagoon at the beginning of the new millennium, J. Mar. Syst., 51, 345–353, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2004.05.021, 2004.
Carrassi, A., Bocquet, M., Bertino, L., and Evensen, G.: Data assimilation in
the geosciences: An overview of methods, issues, and perspectives, Wiley
Interdisciplin. Rev. Clim. Change, 9, e535, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.535, 2018.
Carrère, L., Lyard, F., Cancet, M., Guillot, A., and Roblou, L.: FES 2012: A New Global Tidal Model Taking Advantage of Nearly 20 Years of Altimetry, edited by: Ouwehand, L., in: 20 Years of Progress in Radar Altimetry, 24–29 September 2012, Venice, Italy, ISBN 978-92-9221-274-2, 2013.
Casitas, S., Pasquet, A., Michaud, H., Baraille, R., and Jourdan, D.:
Modélisation des surcotes avec HYCOM pour les départements d'outre-mer, JNGCGC® proceedings no. 15, edited by: Levacher, D., Sanchez, M., Bertin, X., and Brenon, I., Editions Paralia CFL, 27–36, https://doi.org/10.5150/jngcgc.2018.004, 2018.
Cavaleri, L., Bertotti, L., Buizza, R., Buzzi, A., Masato, V., Umgiesser, G.,
and Zampieri, M.: Predictability of extreme meteo-oceanographic events in the Adriatic Sea, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 136, 400–413, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.567, 2010.
Cavaleri, L., Bajo, M., Barbariol, F., Bastianini, M., Benetazzo, A., Bertotti, L., Chiggiato, J., Davolio, S., Ferrarin, C., Magnusson, L., and
others: The October 29, 2018 storm in Northern Italy – An exceptional event
and its modeling, Prog. Oceanogr., 178, 102178, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2019.102178, 2019.
Cavaleri, L., Bajo, M., Barbariol, F., Bastianini, M., Benetazzo, A., Bertotti, L., Chiggiato, J., Ferrarin, C., Trincardi, F., and Umgiesser, G.: The 2019 Flooding of Venice and Its Implications for Future Predictions, Oceanography, 33, 42–49, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2020.105, 2020.
Cerovečki, I., Orlić, M., and Hendershott, M. C.: Adriatic seiche
decay and energy loss to the Mediterranean, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. A, 44, 2007–2029, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0967-0637(97)00056-3, 1997.
Charnock, H.: Wind stress on a water surface, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 81, 639–640, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49708135027, 1955.
Chiggiato, J. and Oddo, P.: Operational ocean models in the Adriatic Sea: a
skill assessment, Ocean Sci., 4, 61–71, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-4-61-2008, 2008.
Clementi, E., Pistoia, J., Delrosso, D., Mattia, G., Fratianni, C., Storto,
A., Ciliberti, S., Lemieux, B., Fenu, E., Simoncelli, S., Drudi, M., Grandi,
A., Padeletti, D., Pietro, P. D., and Pinardi, N.: A
Clementi, E., Oddo, P., Drudi, M., Pinardi, N., Korres, G., and Grandi, A.:
Coupling hydrodynamic and wave models: first step and sensitivity experiments in the Mediterranean Sea, Ocean Dynam., 67, 1293–1312,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-017-1087-7, 2017b.
Clementi, E., Pistoia, J., Escudier, R., Delrosso, D., Drudi, M., Grandi, A., Lecci, R., Cretí, S., Ciliberti, S., Coppini, G., Masina, S., and
Pinardi, N.: Mediterranean Sea Analysis and Forecast (CMEMS MED-Currents
2016–2019), Copernicus Monitoring Environment Marine Service (CMEMS), https://doi.org/10.25423/CMCC/MEDSEA_ANALYSIS_FORECAST_PHY_006_013_EAS4, 2019.
Coccia, G.: Analysis and developments of uncertainty processors for real time flood forecasting, PhD Dissertation, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy, 2011.
Consorzio Venezia Nuova: Interventi alle bocche lagunari per la regolazione
dei flussi di marea – Studio di impatto ambientale del progetto di massima,
Magistrato alle Acque di Venezia, Venezia, 1997.
Consorzio Venezia Nuova: Sviluppo di uno strumento operativo (modello
decisionale) per la gestione delle opere mobili, Magistrato alle Acque di
Venezia, Venezia, 2005.
Coraci, E. and Crosato, F.: Gli eventi meteo-marini di gennaio e febbraio 2014 nel Nord Adriatico. Monitoraggio analisi previsione e comunicazione, available at:
http://www.venezia.isprambiente.it/ispra/index.php?action=download&upload_id=173832, 2014.
Coraci, E., Umgiesser, G., and Zonta, R.: Hydrodynamic and sediment transport
modelling in the canals of Venice (Italy), Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci., 75, 250–260, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2007.02.028, 2007.
Cordella, M. and Ferla, M.: Effects of a “meteorological bomb” inside the
Venice Lagoon: the case of the 24th September 2004, in: 4th European conference on Severe Storms, Trieste, Italy, 2007.
Cushman-Roisin, B., Malačič, V., and Gačić, M.: Tides, Seiches and Low-Frequency Oscillations, in: Physical Oceanography of the Adriatic Sea, edited by: Cushman-Roisin, B., Gačić, M., Poulain, P. M., and Artegiani, A., Springer, Dordrecht, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-9819-4_7, 2001.
De Biasio, F., Vignudelli, S., della Valle, A., Umgiesser, G., Bajo, M., and
Zecchetto, S.: Exploiting the Potential of Satellite Microwave Remote Sensing to Hindcast the Storm Surge in the Gulf of Venice, IEEE J. Sel. Top. Appl. Earth Obs. Remote Sens., 9, 5089–5105, https://doi.org/10.1109/jstars.2016.2603235, 2016.
De Biasio, F., Bajo, M., Vignudelli, S., Umgiesser, G., and Zecchetto, S.:
Improvements of storm surge forecasting in the Gulf of Venice exploiting the
potential of satellite data: the ESA DUE eSurge-Venice project, Eur. J. Remote Sens., 50, 428–441, https://doi.org/10.1080/22797254.2017.1350558, 2017.
de Freitas, J. G. and Dias, J. A.: 1941 windstorm effects on the Portuguese
Coast. What lessons for the future?, J. Coast. Res., 65, 714–719,
https://doi.org/10.2112/si65-121, 2013.
Demarte, M., Morucci, S., Repetti, L., and Orasi, A.: Il mareografo
fondamentale di Genova: analisi delle variazioni del livello del mare dal 1884 al 2006, Pubblicazione Cod. IIM 3174, Editore Istituto Idrografico della Marina, 2007.
Denamiel, C., Šepić, J., Ivanković, D., and Vilibić, I.: The
Adriatic Sea and Coast modelling suite: Evaluation of the meteotsunami
forecast component, Ocean Model., 135, 71–93, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2019.02.003, 2019.
De Zolt, S., Lionello, P., Nuhu, A., and Tomasin, A.: The disastrous storm of
4 November 1966 on Italy, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 6, 861–879,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-6-861-2006, 2006.
Dick, S.: Operationelles Modellsystem für Nord-und Ostsee, in: FORUM,
Proc. Der Fachtagung “EDV im Seeverkehr und maritimen Umweltschutz”, Bremen, 22–25, 1997.
Di Liberto, T., Colle, B. A., Georgas, N., Blumberg, A. F., and Taylor, A. A.: Verification of a Multimodel Storm Surge Ensemble around New York City and Long Island for the Cool Season, Weather Forecast., 26, 922–939,
https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-10-05055.1, 2011.
Dodet, G., Melet, A., Ardhuin, F., Bertin, X., Idier, D., and Almar, R.: The
Contribution of Wind-Generated Waves to Coastal Sea-Level Changes, Surv. Geophys., 40, 1563–1601, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09557-5, 2019.
Ferla, M.: APAT duties and techno-scientific activities regarding the Lagoon
of Venice, in: Flooding and Environmental Challenges for Venice and its
Lagoon: State of Knowledge, edited by: Fletcher, C. A. and Spencer, T., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 99–105, 2005.
Ferla, M., Cordella, M., Michielli, L., and Rusconi, A.: Long-term variations
on sea level and tidal regime in the lagoon of Venice, Estuar. Coast. Shelf
Sci., 75, 214–222, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2007.03.037, 2007.
Fernández-Montblanc, T., Vousdoukas, M. I., Ciavola, P., Voukouvalas, E., Mentaschi, L., Breyiannis, G., Feyen, L., and Salamon, P.: Towards robust pan-European storm surge forecasting, Ocean Model., 133, 129–144,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2018.12.001, 2019.
Ferrarin, C., Roland, A., Bajo, M., Umgiesser, G., Cucco, A., Davolio, S.,
Buzzi, A., Malguzzi, P., and Drofa, O.: Tide-surge-wave modelling and forecasting in the Mediterranean Sea with focus on the Italian coast, Ocean
Model., 61, 38–48, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2012.10.003, 2013.
Ferrarin, C., Tomasin, A., Bajo, M., Petrizzo, A., and Umgiesser, G.: Tidal
changes in a heavily modified coastal wetland, Cont. Shelf Res., 101, 22–33, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2015.04.002, 2015.
Ferrarin, C., Maicu, F., and Umgiesser, G.: The effect of lagoons on Adriatic
Sea tidal dynamics, Ocean Model., 119, 57–71, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2017.09.009, 2017.
Ferrarin, C., Davolio, S., Bellafiore, D., Ghezzo, M., Maicu, F., Mc Kiver,
W., Drofa, O., Umgiesser, G., Bajo, M., De Pascalis, F., Malguzzi, P., Zaggia, L., Lorenzetti, G., and Manfè, G.: Cross-scale operational oceanography in the Adriatic Sea, J. Oper. Oceanogr., 12, 86–103, https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876x.2019.1576275, 2019.
Ferrarin, C., Valentini, A., Vodopivec, M., Klaric, D., Massaro, G., Bajo, M., De Pascalis, F., Fadini, A., Ghezzo, M., Menegon, S., Bressan, L., Unguendoli, S., Fettich, A., Jerman, J., Ličer, M., Fustar, L., Papa, A., and Carraro, E.: Integrated sea storm management strategy: the 29 October 2018 event in the Adriatic Sea, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 73–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-73-2020, 2020.
Ferrarin, C., Bajo, M., Benetazzo, A., Cavalari, L., Chiggiato, J., Davison,
S., Davolio, S., Lionello, P., Orlić, M., and Umgiesser, G.: Local and
large-scale controls of the exceptional Venice floods of November 2019,
Prog. Oceanogr., https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2021.102628, accepted, 2021.
Finizio, C., Palmieri, S., and Riccucci, A.: A numerical model of the
Adriatic for the prediction of high tides at Venice, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol.
Soc., 98, 86–104, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49709841508, 1972.
Flather, R. A.: A Storm Surge Prediction Model for the Northern Bay of
Bengal with Application to the Cyclone Disaster in April 1991, J. Phys.
Oceanogr., 24, 172–190, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1994)024<0172:asspmf>2.0.co;2, 1994.
Flather, R. A.: Existing operational oceanography, Coast. Eng., 41, 13–40, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0378-3839(00)00025-9, 2000.
Flowerdew, J., Horsburgh, K., and Mylne, K.: Ensemble Forecasting of Storm
Surges, Mar. Geod., 32, 91–99, https://doi.org/10.1080/01490410902869151, 2009.
Flowerdew, J., Horsburgh, K., Wilson, C., and Mylne, K.: Development and
evaluation of an ensemble forecasting system for coastal storm surges, Q. J.
Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 136, 1444–1456, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.648, 2010.
Flowerdew, J., Mylne, K., Jones, C., and Titley, H.: Extending the forecast
range of the UK storm surge ensemble, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 139, 184–197, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.1950, 2012.
Fortunato, A. B., Li, K., Bertin, X., Rodrigues, M., and Miguez, B. M.:
Determination of extreme sea levels along the Iberian Atlantic coast, Ocean
Eng., 111, 471–482, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2015.11.031, 2016.
Fortunato, A. B., Oliveira, A., Rogeiro, J., Tavares da Costa, R., Gomes, J.
L., Li, K., de Jesus, G., Freire, P., Rilo, A., Mendes, A., Rodrigues, M., and Azevedo, A.: Operational forecast framework applied to extreme sea levels at regional and local scales, J. Oper. Oceanogr., 10, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876x.2016.1255471, 2017.
Frassetto, R.: The facts of relative sea-level rise in Venice, in Flooding
and Environmental Challenges for Venice and its Lagoon: State of Knowledge,
edited by: Fletcher, C. A. and Spencer, T., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 29–40, 2005.
Gačić, M., Mancero Mosquera, I., Kovačević, V., Mazzoldi, A., Cardin, V., Arena, F., and Gelsi, G.: Temporal variations of water flow between the Venetian lagoon and the open sea, J. Mar. Syst., 51, 33–47, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2004.05.025, 2004.
Gambolati, G. and Teatini, P.: Venice Shall Rise Again, Elsevier, https://doi.org/10.1016/c2013-0-13079-6, 2014.
Gerritsen, H.: What happened in 1953? The Big Flood in the Netherlands in
retrospect, Philos. T. Roy. Soc., 363, 1271–1291, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2005.1568, 2005.
Gilbert, S. and Horner, R.: The Thames Barrier, Thomas Telford Ltd., London, 1986.
Goldmann, A. and Tomasin, A.: Model for the Adriatic Sea, in: Colloque international sur l'exploitation des oceans, Bordeaux, France, 1971.
Grazzini, F.: Predictability of a large-scale flow conducive to extreme
precipitation over the western Alps, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 95, 123–138, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-006-0205-8, 2006.
Grisogono, B. and Belušić, D.: A review of recent advances in understanding the meso- and microscale properties of the severe Bora wind,
Tellus A, 61, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00369.x, 2009.
Haigh, I. D., Ozsoy, O., Wadey, M. P., Nicholls, R. J., Gallop, S. L., Wahl,
T., and Brown, J. M.: An improved database of coastal flooding in the United
Kingdom from 1915 to 2016, Sci. Data, 4, 170100, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.100, 2017.
Haigh, I. D., Pickering, M. D., Green, J. A. M., Arbic, B. K., Arns, A.,
Dangendorf, S., Hill, D. F., Horsburgh, K., Howard, T., Idier, D., Jay, D.
A., Jänicke, L., Lee, S. B., Müller, M., Schindelegger, M., Talke,
S. A., Wilmes, S.-B., and Woodworth, P. L.: The Tides They Are A – Changin: A Comprehensive Review of Past and Future Nonastronomical Changes in Tides, Their Driving Mechanisms, and Future Implications, Rev. Geophys., 57, e2018RG000636, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018rg000636, 2020.
Hamill, T. M., Snyder, C., and Morss, R. E.: A Comparison of Probabilistic
Forecasts from Bred, Singular-Vector, and Perturbed Observation Ensembles,
Mon. Weather Rev., 128, 1835–1851,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<1835:acopff>2.0.co;2, 2000.
Hordoir, R., Axell, L., Höglund, A., Dieterich, C., Fransner, F., Gröger, M., Liu, Y., Pemberton, P., Schimanke, S., Andersson, H., and
others: Nemo-Nordic 1.0: a NEMO-based ocean model for the Baltic and North
seas – research and operational applications, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 363–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-363-2019, 2019.
Hupfer, P., Harff, J., Sterr, H., and Stigge, H. J.: Wasserstände an der Ostseeküste, Die Küste, 66, 4–331, Holstein, Germany, available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/284682373_Wasserstande_an_der_Ostseekuste
(last access: 23 June 2021), 2003.
ISPRA: Bollettini meteo-mareografici 2012, available at:
http://www.venezia.isprambiente.it/ispra/index.php?action=download&upload_id=156269
(last access: June 2021), 2012.
Kesslitz, W.: Das Gezeitenphaenomen im Hafen von Pola, Mitteilungen Aus Dem
Geb. Seewes., 38, 445–608, 1910.
Krichak, S. O. and Alpert, P.: Role of large scale moist dynamics in
November 1–5, 1994, hazardous Mediterranean weather, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 103, 19453–19468, https://doi.org/10.1029/98jd01710, 1998.
Krzysztofowicz, R.: Bayesian theory of probabilistic forecasting via deterministic hydrologic model, Water Resour. Res., 35, 2739–2750,
https://doi.org/10.1029/1999wr900099, 1999.
Lavaud, L., Bertin, X., Martins, K., Arnaud, G., and Bouin, M.-N.: The
contribution of short-wave breaking to storm surges: The case Klaus in the
Southern Bay of Biscay, Ocean Model., 156, 101710,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2020.101710, 2020.
Leith, C. E.: Theoretical Skill of Monte Carlo Forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev.,
102, 409–418, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1974)102<0409:tsomcf>2.0.co;2, 1974.
Lewis, J. M. and Derber, J. C.: The use of adjoint equations to solve a variational adjustment problem with advective constraints, Tellus A, 37, 309–322, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.1985.tb00430.x, 1985.
Ličer, M., Smerkol, P., Fettich, A., Ravdas, M., Papapostolou, A., Mantziafou, A., Strajnar, B., Cedilnik, J., Jeromel, M., Jerman, J., Petan, S., Malačič, V., and Sofianos, S.: Modeling the ocean and atmosphere during an extreme bora event in northern Adriatic using one-way and two-way atmosphere–ocean coupling, Ocean Sci., 12, 71–86, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-71-2016, 2016.
Lintner, J.: The Valuation of Risk Assets and the Selection of Risky Investments in Stock Portfolios and Capital Budgets, Rev. Econ. Stat., 47, 13, https://doi.org/10.2307/1924119, 1965.
Lionello, P.: Oceanographic prediction for the Venetian littoral, Il Nuovo
Cimento C, 18, 245–268, https://doi.org/10.1007/bf02508556, 1995.
Lionello, P.: Extreme surges in the Gulf of Venice. Present and Future Climate, in: Flooding and Environmental Challenges for Venice and its Lagoon:
State of Knowledge, edited by: Fletcher, C. A. and Spencer, T., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 59–65,2005.
Lionello, P., Zampato, L., Malguzzi, P., Tomasin, A., and Bergamasco, A.: On
the correct surface stress for the prediction of the wind wave field and the
storm surge in the northern Adriatic Sea, Il Nuovo Cimento C, 21, 515–532, 1998.
Lionello, P., Mufato, R., and Tomasin, A.: Sensitivity of free and forced
oscillations of the Adriatic Sea to sea level rise, Clim. Res., 29, 23–39,
https://doi.org/10.3354/cr029023, 2005.
Lionello, P., Sanna, A., Elvini, E., and Mufato, R.: A data assimilation
procedure for operational prediction of storm surge in the northern Adriatic
Sea, Cont. Shelf Res., 26, 539–553, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2006.01.003, 2006.
Lionello, P., Cavaleri, L., Nissen, K. M., Pino, C., Raicich, F., and
Ulbrich, U.: Severe marine storms in the Northern Adriatic: Characteristics
and trends, Phys. Chem. Earth Pt. ABC, 40–41, 93–105, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2010.10.002, 2012.
Lionello, P., Trigo, I. F., Gil, V., Liberato, M. L. R., Nissen, K. M.,
Pinto, J. G., Raible, C. C., Reale, M., Tanzarella, A., Trigo, R. M., Ulbrich, S., and Ulbrich, U.: Objective climatology of cyclones in the Mediterranean region: a consensus view among methods with different system identification and tracking criteria, Tellus A, 68, 29391, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v68.29391, 2016.
Lionello, P., Conte, D., and Reale, M.: The effect of cyclones crossing the
Mediterranean region on sea level anomalies on the Mediterranean Sea coast,
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1541–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1541-2019, 2019.
Lionello, P., Nicholls, R. J., Umgiesser, G., and Zanchettin, D.: Venice flooding and sea level: past evolution, present issues, and future projections (introduction to the special issue), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2633–2641, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2633-2021, 2021a.
Lionello, P., Barriopedro, D., Ferrarin, C., Nicholls, R. J., Orlić, M., Raicich, F., Reale, M., Umgiesser, G., Vousdoukas, M., and Zanchettin, D.: Extreme floods of Venice: characteristics, dynamics, past and future evolution (review article), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2705–2731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, 2021b.
Lovato, T., Androsov, A., Romanenkov, D., and Rubino, A.: The tidal and wind
induced hydrodynamics of the composite system Adriatic Sea/Lagoon of Venice,
Cont. Shelf Res., 30, 692–706, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2010.01.005, 2010.
Madec, G. and the NEMO team: NEMO ocean engine, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), France, 2016.
Malanotte-Rizzoli, P.: Winter oceanographic properties of Northern Adriatic
Sea (cruise January–February 1972, Arch. Oceanogr. Limnol., 19, 1–45, 1977.
Mariani, S., Casaioli, M., Coraci, E., and Malguzzi, P.: A new high-resolution BOLAM-MOLOCH suite for the SIMM forecasting system:
assessment over two HyMeX intense observation periods, Nat. Hazards Earth
Syst. Sci., 15, 1–24, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1-2015, 2015.
Markowitz, H.: Portfolio Selection, J. Finance, 7, 77–91, https://doi.org/10.2307/2975974, 1952.
Mateus, M., Riflet, G., Chambel, P., Fernandes, L., Fernandes, R., Juliano,
M., Campuzano, F., de Pablo, H., and Neves, R.: An operational model for the
West Iberian coast: products and services, Ocean Sci., 8, 713–732,
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-8-713-2012, 2012.
Međugorac, I., Orlić, M., Janeković, I., Pasarić, Z., and
Pasarić, M.: Adriatic storm surges and related cross-basin sea-level slope, J. Mar. Syst., 181, 79–90, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2018.02.005, 2018.
Mel, R. and Lionello, P.: Storm Surge Ensemble Prediction for the City of Venice, Weather Forecast., 29, 1044–1057, https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-13-00117.1, 2014a.
Mel, R. and Lionello, P.: Verification of an ensemble prediction system for storm surge forecast in the Adriatic Sea, Ocean Dynam., 64, 1803–1814,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-014-0782-x, 2014b.
Mel, R. and Lionello, P.: Probabilistic Dressing of a Storm Surge Prediction
in the Adriatic Sea, Adv. Meteorol., 2016, 3764519, https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/3764519, 2016.
Molteni, F., Buizza, R., Palmer, T. N., and Petroliagis, T.: The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Methodology and validation, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol.
Soc., 122, 73–119, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712252905, 1996.
Morucci, S., Coraci, E., Crosato, F., and Ferla, M.: Extreme events in Venice
and in the North Adriatic Sea: 28–29 October 2018, Rendiconti Lincei Sci.
Fis. E Nat., 31, 113–122, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12210-020-00882-1, 2020.
Mosetti, F. and Manca, B.: Le maree dell'Adriatico: Calcoli di nuove costanti armoniche per alcuni porti, Studi in onore di Giuseppina Aliverti, Ist Meteorol. E Oceanogr.,Istituto Universitario Navale di Napoli, Napoli,
163–177, 1972.
Mossin, J.: Equilibrium in a Capital Asset Market, Econometrica, 34, 768,
https://doi.org/10.2307/1910098, 1966.
Mourre, B., Santana, A., Buils, A., Gautreau, L., Ličer, M., Jansà,
A., Casas, B., Amengual, B., and Tintoré, J.: On the potential of ensemble forecasting for the prediction of meteotsunamis in the Balearic Islands: sensitivity to atmospheric model parameterizations, Nat. Hazards,
106, 1315–1336, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-03908-x, 2021.
NCEP: NOAA/NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) Atmospheric Model, Distributed
by the Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System (PacIOOS), available at: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/model-data/model-datasets/global-forcast-system-gfs (last access: 20 June 2021), 2011.
Nielsen, J. W.: Verifikation af vandstandsprognoser, DMI tech. Rep. 03-30, Danish Meteorological Institute, available at:
https://www.dmi.dk/fileadmin/user_upload/Rapporter/TR/2003/tr03-27.pdf
(last access: June 2021), 2003.
O'Brien, L., Renzi, E., Dudley, J. M., Clancy, C., and Dias, F.: Catalogue of
extreme wave events in Ireland: revised and updated for 14 680 BP to 2017,
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 729–758, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-729-2018, 2018.
Oliveira, A., Fortunato, A. B., Rogeiro, J., Teixeira, J., Azevedo, A.,
Lavaud, L., Bertin, X., Gomes, J., David, M., Pina, J., Rodrigues, M., and Lopes, P.: OPENCoastS: An open-access service for the automatic generation of coastal forecast systems, Environ. Model. Softw., 124, 104585, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104585, 2020.
O'Neil, C., Saulter, A., Wiliams, J., and Horsburgh, K.: NEMO-surge: Application of atmospheric forcing and surge evaluation (2016), Met Office Forecasting Research Technical Report 619, Met Office, Exeter, Devon, UK, 2016.
Orlić, M.: Anatomy of sea level variability – an example from the Adriatic, in: The Ocean Engineering Handbook, edited by: El-Hawary, F., CRC Press, Boca Raton, USA, 2001.
Palmer, T. and Hagedorn, R. (Eds.): Predictability of Weather and Climate,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511617652, 2006.
Pasarić, Z., Belušić, D., and Chiggiato, J.: Orographic effects
on meteorological fields over the Adriatic from different models, J. Mar.
Syst., 78, S90–S100, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.01.019, 2009.
Pasquet, A., Michaud, H., Aouf, L., Baraille, R., Bru, C., Correard, S.,
Gouillon, F., Jourdan, D., Morvan, G., Ohl, P., and Paradis, D.: Implémentation d'un nouveau modèle opérationnel de prévision
des vagues et surcotes marines, in: JNGCGC® proceedings no. 13 (2014), edited by: Levacher,D., Sanchez, M., Hequette, A., and Lalaut, Y., Editions Paralia CFL, 149–158, https://doi.org/10.5150/jngcgc.2014.017, 2014.
Pasquet, A., Michaud, H., Baraille, R., Jourdan, D., Biscara, L., Casitas,
S., Paradis, D., Ohl, P., and Dalphinet, A.: Modeling storm surges with HYCOM
– an improvement of the French warning system, in: 1st International Workshop on Waves, Storm Surges, and Coastal Hazards, Liverpool, available at: http://www.waveworkshop.org/15thWaves/Presentations/G3.pdf (last access: June 2021), 2017.
Pérez-Gómez, B., Brouwer, R., Beckers, J., Paradis, D., Balseiro, C., Lyons, K., Cure, M., Sotillo, M. G., Hackett, B., Verlaan, M., and Fanjul, E. A.: ENSURF: multi-model sea level forecast – implementation and validation results for the IBIROOS and Western Mediterranean regions, Ocean Sci., 8, 211–226, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-8-211-2012, 2012.
Pérez-Gómez, B., Pérez-González, I., Sotillo, M. G., and
Álvarez-Fanjul, E.: Retos de los sistemas de observación y predicción en los riesgos asociados al nivel del mar, Ribagua, 6, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1080/23863781.2019.1595212, 2019.
Pérez-González, I., Pérez-Gómez, B., Sotillo, M. G., and Álvarez-Fanjul, E.: Towards a new sea level forecast system in Puertos
del Estado, in Extended proceedings, in: 8th EuroGOOS Conference, Bergen, Norway, 2017.
Petaccia, S. and Salusti, E.: Nonlinear autoregressive prediction of aqua alta at Venice (northern Adriatic Sea, western Mediterranean Sea, Oceanogr.
Lit. Rev., 9, 703–704, 1995.
Pirazzoli, P. A.: Bora e Acqua Alta, Acqua – Aria, 10, 1115–1118, 1981.
Polli, S.: La propagazione delle maree nell'Adriatico, Ist. Talassogr.
Sper., Trieste, 370, 11, 1961.
Poulain, P.-M.: Adriatic Sea surface circulation as derived from drifter
data between 1990 and 1999, 29, 3–32, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0924-7963(01)00007-0, 2001.
Poulain, P. M. and Cushman-Roisin, B.: Circulation, in: Physical Oceanography of the Adriatic Sea, edited by: Cushman-Roisin, B., Gačić, M., Poulain, P. M., and Artegiani, A.., Springer, Dordrecht, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-9819-4_3, 2001.
Raicich, F., Orlić, M., Vilibić, I., and Malačič, V.: A case
study of the Adriatic seiches, Il Nuovo Cimento C, 22, 715–726, 1999.
Rinaldo, A.: On the Natural Equilibrium of the Venice Lagoon (Will Venice Survive?), in: Sustainable Venice: Suggestions for the Future, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) Series on Economics, Energy and Environment, vol. 16, edited by: Musu, I., Springer, Dordrecht, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-0692-7_3, 2001.
Rinaldo, A., Nicótina, L., Alessi Celegon, E., Beraldin, F., Botter, G.,
Carniello, L., Cecconi, G., Defina, A., Settin, T., Uccelli, A., D'Alpaos, L., and Marani, M.: Sea level rise, hydrologic runoff, and the flooding of Venice, Water Resour. Res., 44, W12434, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008wr007195, 2008.
Robinson, A. R., Tomasin, A., and Artegiani, A.: Flooding of Venice:
Phenomenology and prediction of the Adriatic storm surge, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 99, 688–692, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49709942210, 1973.
Roland, A., Cucco, A., Ferrarin, C., Hsu, T.-W., Liau, J.-M., Ou, S.-H., Umgiesser, G., and Zanke, U.: On the development and verification of a 2-D
coupled wave-current model on unstructured meshes, J. Mar. Syst., 78, S244–S254, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.01.026, 2009.
Rosenhagen, G. and Bork, I.: Rekonstruktion der Sturmwetterlage vom 13. November 1872, Küste, MUSTOK, 75, 51–70, 2009.
Russo, A., Coluccelli, A., Carniel, S., Benetazzo, A., Valentini, A., Paccagnella, T., Ravaioli, M., and Bortoluzzi, G.: Operational models
hierarchy for short term marine predictions: The Adriatic Sea example, in: 2013 MTSIEEE OCEANS, Bergen, https://doi.org/10.1109/oceans-bergen.2013.6608139, 2013.
Saetra, O., Kristensen, N. M., Olsen, A. M., Oiestad, M., and Berge, H.: An
Ensemble-Based Storm Surge Forecasting System for the Coast of Norway, available at:
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/18296-ensemble-based-storm-surge-forecasting-system-coast
-norway
(last access: June 2021), 2018.
Samuelsson, M. and Stigebrandt, A.: Main characteristics of the long-term sea level variability in the Baltic sea, Tellus A, 48, 672–683, https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1996.t01-4-00006.x, 1996.
Schättler, U., Doms, G., and Schraff, C.: COSMO-Model Version 5.05: A
Description of the Nonhydrostatic Regional COSMO-Model – Part VII: User's
Guide, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany, https://doi.org/10.5676/DWD_PUB/NWV/COSMO-DOC_5.05_VII, 2018.
Schwab, D. J. and Rao, D. B.: Barotropic oscillations of the Mediterranean and Adriatic Seas, Tellus A, 35, 417–427, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.1983.tb00216.x, 1983.
Sguazzero, P., Giommoni, A., and Goldmann, A.: An empirical model for the
prediction of the sea level in, Italia TR, I.B.M., Venice, 1972.
Sharpe, W. F.: Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk, J. Finance, 19, 425–442, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1964.tb02865.x, 1964.
Shchepetkin, A. F. and McWilliams, J. C.: The regional oceanic modeling
system (ROMS): a split-explicit, free-surface, topography-following-coordinate oceanic model, Ocean Model., 9, 347–404,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2004.08.002, 2005.
Siek, M. and Solomatine, D. P.: Optimized dynamic ensembles of multiple chaotic models in predicting storm surges, J. Coast. Res., 64, 1184–1188, 2011.
Signell, R. P., Carniel, S., Cavaleri, L., Chiggiato, J., Doyle, J. D., Pullen, J., and Sclavo, M.: Assessment of wind quality for oceanographic
modelling in semi-enclosed basins, J. Mar. Syst., 53, 217–233,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2004.03.006, 2005.
Sotillo, M. G., Cailleau, S., Lorente, P., Levier, B., Aznar, R., Reffray, G., Amo-Baladrón, A., Chanut, J., Benkiran, M., and Alvarez-Fanjul, E.:
The MyOcean IBI Ocean Forecast and Reanalysis Systems: operational products and roadmap to the future Copernicus Service, J. Oper. Oceanogr., 8, 63–79, https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876x.2015.1014663, 2015.
Sotillo, M. G., Cerralbo, P., Lorente, P., Grifoll, M., Espino, M., Sanchez-Arcilla, A., and Álvarez-Fanjul, E.: Coastal ocean forecasting in
Spanish ports: the SAMOA operational service, J. Oper. Oceanogr., 13, 37–54, https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876x.2019.1606765, 2019.
Speranza, A., Buzzi, A., Trevisan, A., and Malguzzi, P.: A Theory of Deep
Cyclogenesis in the Lee of the Alps. Part I: Modifications of Baroclinic
Instability by Localized Topography, J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 1521–1535, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1985)042<1521:atodci>2.0.co;2, 1985.
Speranza, A., Accadia, C., Mariani, S., Casaioli, M., Tartaglione, N., Monacelli, G., Ruti, P. M., and Lavagnini, A.: SIMM: An integrated forecasting system for the Mediterranean area, Meteorol. Appl., 14, 337–350, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.34, 2007.
Sterneck, R.: Die Gezeitenerscheinungen in der Adria, II. Teil, Die theoretische Erklaerung der Beobachtungs – Tatsachen, Denkschr. Akad. Wiss.
Wien Mat.-Naturwissenschaftliche Kl., 96, 277–324, 1919.
Storto, A., Masina, S., and Navarra, A.: Evaluation of the CMCC eddy-permitting global ocean physical reanalysis system (C-GLORS, 1982–2012)
and its assimilation components, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 142, 738–758, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2673, 2015.
Talagrand, O. and Courtier, P.: Variational Assimilation of Meteorological
Observations With the Adjoint Vorticity Equation. I: Theory, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 113, 1311–1328, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711347812, 1987.
Thacker, W. C.: Fitting models to inadequate data by enforcing spatial and
temporal smoothness, J. Geophys. Res., 93, 10655, https://doi.org/10.1029/jc093ic09p10655, 1988.
Thacker, W. C. and Long, R. B.: Fitting dynamics to data, J. Geophys. Res.,
93, 1227, https://doi.org/10.1029/jc093ic02p01227, 1988.
The BACC II Author Team: Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic
Sea Basin, Reg. Clim. Stud., 9, 155–185, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1, 2015.
Tomasin, A.: Auto-regressive prediction of sea level in the northern Adriatic, Riv. Ital. Geofis., 21, 211–214, 1972.
Tomasin, A.: A computer simulation of the Adriatic Sea for the study of its
dynamics and for the forecasting of floods in the town of Venice, Comput. Phys. Commun., 5, 51–55, https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-4655(73)90010-6, 1973.
Tomasin, A. and Frassetto, R.: Cyclogenesis and Forecast of Dramatic Water
Elevations in Venice, in: Mar. Forecast. – Predict. Model. Ocean Hydrodyn. Proc. 10th Int. Liége Colloq. Ocean Hydrodyn., Liége, 427–438,
https://doi.org/10.1016/s0422-9894(08)71142-5, 1979.
Tosoni, A. and Canestrelli, P.: Il modello stocastico per la previsione di
marea a Venezia, Atti DellIstituto Veneto Sci. Lett. Ed Arti, Tomo CLXIX,
Venice, 2011.
Trigo, I. F. and Davies, T. D.: Meteorological conditions associated with sea surges in Venice: a 40 year climatology, Int. J. Climatol., 22, 787–803, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.719, 2002.
Trincardi, F., Barbanti, A., Bastianini, M., Benetazzo, A., Cavaleri, L.,
Chiggiato, J., Papa, A., Pomaro, A., Sclavo, M., Tosi, L., and Umgiesser, G.: The 1966 Flooding of Venice: What Time Taught Us for the Future, Oceanography, 29, 178–186, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2016.87, 2016.
Tsimplis, M. N., Proctor, R., and Flather, R. A.: A two-dimensional tidal
model for the Mediterranean Sea, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 100, 16223, https://doi.org/10.1029/95jc01671, 1995.
Umgiesser, G.: Valutazione degli Effetti degli Interventi Morbidi e Diffusi
sulla Riduzione delle Punte di Marea a Venezia, Chioggia e Burano, Atti
DellIstituto Veneto SLA Venezia, CLVII, Venezia 231–286, 1999.
Umgiesser, G.: The impact of operating the mobile barriers in Venice (MOSE)
under climate change, J. Nat. Conserv., 54, 125783, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnc.2019.125783, 2020.
Umgiesser, G., Canu, D. M., Cucco, A., and Solidoro, C.: A finite element
model for the Venice Lagoon. Development, set up, calibration and validation, J. Mar. Syst., 51, 123–145, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2004.05.009, 2004.
Ursella, L. and Gacic, M.: Use of the Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) in the study of the circulation of the Adriatic Sea, Ann. Geophys., 19, 1183–1193, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-19-1183-2001, 2001.
Valentini, A., Delli Passeri, L., Paccagnella, T., Patruno, P., Marsigli, C., Deserti, M., Chiggiato, J., and Tibaldi, S.: The Sea State forecast system of ARPA-SIM, Boll. Geofis. Teor. Ed. Appl., 48, 333–349, 2007.
Vercelli, F.: Le maree e le sesse nel porto di Zara, Ric. Sci., 12, 1–8, 1941.
Vergano, L., Umgiesser, G., and Nunes, P. A. L. D.: An economic assessment of
the impacts of the MOSE barriers on Venice port activities, Transp. Res. Part Transp. Environ., 15, 343–349, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2010.04.001, 2010.
Verlaan, M., Zijderveld, A., de Vries, H., and Kroos, J.: Operational storm
surge forecasting in the Netherlands: developments in the last decade, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 363, 1441–1453, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2005.1578, 2005.
Vieira, J., Føns, J., and Cecconi, G.: Statistical and hydrodynamic models
for the operational forecasting of floods in the Venice Lagoon, Coast. Eng.,
21, 301–331, https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-3839(93)90012-w, 1993.
Vilibić, I., Šepić, J., Pasarić, M., and Orlić, M.: The
Adriatic Sea: A Long-Standing Laboratory for Sea Level Studies, Pure Appl.
Geophys., 174, 3765–3811, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-017-1625-8, 2017.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Voukouvalas, E., Annunziato, A., Giardino, A., and Feyen, L.: Projections of extreme storm surge levels along Europe, Clim. Dynam., 47, 3171–3190, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3019-5, 2016.
Ye, F., Zhang, Y. J., Yu, H., Sun, W., Moghimi, S., Myers, E., Nunez, K., Zhang, R., Wang, H. V., Roland, A., Martins, K., Bertin, X., Du, J., and Liiu, Z.: Simulating storm surge and compound flooding events with a creek-to-ocean model: Importance of baroclinic effects, Ocean Model., 145, 101526, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2019.101526, 2020.
Zampato, L., Bajo, M., Canestrelli, P., and Umgiesser, G.: Storm surge modelling in Venice: two years of operational results, J. Oper. Oceanogr.,
9, s46–s57, https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876x.2015.1118804, 2016.
Zanchettin, D., Bruni, S., Raicich, F., Lionello, P., Adloff, F., Androsov, A., Antonioli, F., Artale, V., Carminati, E., Ferrarin, C., Fofonova, V., Nicholls, R. J., Rubinetti, S., Rubino, A., Sannino, G., Spada, G., Thiéblemont, R., Tsimplis, M., Umgiesser, G., Vignudelli, S., Wöppelmann, G., and Zerbini, S.: Sea-level rise in Venice: historic and future trends (review article), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2643–2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2643-2021, 2021.
Zecchetto, S., Umgiesser, G., and Brocchini, M.: Hindcast of a storm surge
induced by local real wind fields in the Venice Lagoon, Cont. Shelf Res., 17, 1513–1538, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0278-4343(97)00023-x, 1997.
Zhang, Y., Ye, F., Stanev, E. V., and Grashorn, S.: Seamless cross-scale modeling with SCHISM, Ocean Model., 102, 64–81, 2016.
Zonta, R., Zaggia, L., Collavini, F., Costa, F., and Scattolin, M.: Sediment
contamination assessment of the Venice canal network (Italy), in: Flooding and Environmental Challenges for Venice and its Lagoon: State of Knowledge,
edited by: Fletcher, C. A. and Spencer, T., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 603–615, 2005.
Download
- Article
(5673 KB) - Full-text XML
Short summary
The city of Venice relies crucially on a good storm surge forecast to protect its population and cultural heritage. In this paper, we provide a state-of-the-art review of storm surge forecasting, starting from examples in Europe and focusing on the Adriatic Sea and the Lagoon of Venice. We discuss the physics of storm surge, as well as the particular aspects of Venice and new techniques in storm surge modeling. We also give recommendations on what a future forecasting system should look like.
The city of Venice relies crucially on a good storm surge forecast to protect its population and...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint