Articles | Volume 21, issue 8
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2679–2704, 2021

Special issue: Venice flooding: understanding, prediction capabilities, and...

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2679–2704, 2021

Review article 01 Sep 2021

Review article | 01 Sep 2021

The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and uncertainty (review article)

Georg Umgiesser et al.

Related authors

Sea-level rise in Venice: historic and future trends (review article)
Davide Zanchettin, Sara Bruni, Fabio Raicich, Piero Lionello, Fanny Adloff, Alexey Androsov, Fabrizio Antonioli, Vincenzo Artale, Eugenio Carminati, Christian Ferrarin, Vera Fofonova, Robert J. Nicholls, Sara Rubinetti, Angelo Rubino, Gianmaria Sannino, Giorgio Spada, Rémi Thiéblemont, Michael Tsimplis, Georg Umgiesser, Stefano Vignudelli, Guy Wöppelmann, and Susanna Zerbini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2643–2678,,, 2021
Short summary
Extreme floods of Venice: characteristics, dynamics, past and future evolution (review article)
Piero Lionello, David Barriopedro, Christian Ferrarin, Robert J. Nicholls, Mirko Orlić, Fabio Raicich, Marco Reale, Georg Umgiesser, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2705–2731,,, 2021
Short summary
Venice flooding and sea level: past evolution, present issues, and future projections (introduction to the special issue)
Piero Lionello, Robert J. Nicholls, Georg Umgiesser, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2633–2641,,, 2021
Short summary
Model-driven optimization of coastal sea observatories through data assimilation in a finite element hydrodynamic model (SHYFEM v. 7_5_65)
Christian Ferrarin, Marco Bajo, and Georg Umgiesser
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 645–659,,, 2021
Short summary
Marine Rapid Environmental Assessment in the Gulf of Taranto: a multiscale approach
Nadia Pinardi, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Nicola Cardellicchio, Claudio Caporale, Stefania Ciliberti, Giovanni Coppini, Francesca De Pascalis, Lorenzo Dialti, Ivan Federico, Marco Filippone, Alessandro Grandi, Matteo Guideri, Rita Lecci, Lamberto Lamberti, Giuliano Lorenzetti, Paolo Lusiani, Cosimo Damiano Macripo, Francesco Maicu, Michele Mossa, Diego Tartarini, Francesco Trotta, Georg Umgiesser, and Luca Zaggia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2623–2639,,, 2016
Short summary

Related subject area

Sea, Ocean and Coastal Hazards
Still normal? Near-real-time evaluation of storm surge events in the context of climate change
Xin Liu, Insa Meinke, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 97–116,,, 2022
Short summary
The influence of infragravity waves on the safety of coastal defences: a case study of the Dutch Wadden Sea
Christopher H. Lashley, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Jentsje van der Meer, Jeremy D. Bricker, and Vincent Vuik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1–22,,, 2022
Short summary
Assessment of potential beach erosion risk and impact of coastal zone development: a case study on Bongpo–Cheonjin Beach
Changbin Lim, Tae Kon Kim, Sahong Lee, Yoon Jeong Yeon, and Jung Lyul Lee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3827–3842,,, 2021
Short summary
Characteristics and coastal effects of a destructive marine storm in the Gulf of Naples (southern Italy)
Gaia Mattei, Diana Di Luccio, Guido Benassai, Giorgio Anfuso, Giorgio Budillon, and Pietro Aucelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3809–3825,,, 2021
Short summary
Probabilistic, high-resolution tsunami predictions in northern Cascadia by exploiting sequential design for efficient emulation
Dimitra M. Salmanidou, Joakim Beck, Peter Pazak, and Serge Guillas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3789–3807,,, 2021
Short summary

Cited articles

AAVV: Novembre 2019 un mese di maree eccezionali. Dinamica e anomalia dell'evento del 12 novembre 2019, available at: (last access: 16 June 2021), 2020. 
Accerboni, E. and Manca, B.: Storm surge forecasting in the Adriatic Sea by means of a two-dimensional hydrodynamical numerical model, Boll. Geofis. Teor. Ed. Appl., 15, 3–22, 1973. 
Álvarez-Fanjul, E., Pérez-Gómez, B., and Rodríguez Sánchez Arévalo, I.: Nivmar: a storm surge forecasting system for Spanish waters, Sci. Mar., 65, 145–154,, 2001. 
Artegiani, A., Azzolini, R., and Salusti, E.: On the dense water in the Adriatic Sea, Oceanol. Acta, 12, 151–160, 1989. 
Artegiani, A., Paschini, E., Russo, A., Bregant, D., Raicich, F., and Pinardi, N.: The Adriatic Sea General Circulation. Part I: Air–Sea Interactions and Water Mass Structure, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 27, 1492–1514,<1492:tasgcp>;2, 1997a. 
Short summary
The city of Venice relies crucially on a good storm surge forecast to protect its population and cultural heritage. In this paper, we provide a state-of-the-art review of storm surge forecasting, starting from examples in Europe and focusing on the Adriatic Sea and the Lagoon of Venice. We discuss the physics of storm surge, as well as the particular aspects of Venice and new techniques in storm surge modeling. We also give recommendations on what a future forecasting system should look like.
Final-revised paper