Articles | Volume 21, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021
Review article
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01 Sep 2021
Review article | Highlight paper |  | 01 Sep 2021

The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and uncertainty (review article)

Georg Umgiesser, Marco Bajo, Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Cucco, Piero Lionello, Davide Zanchettin, Alvise Papa, Alessandro Tosoni, Maurizio Ferla, Elisa Coraci, Sara Morucci, Franco Crosato, Andrea Bonometto, Andrea Valentini, Mirko Orlić, Ivan D. Haigh, Jacob Woge Nielsen, Xavier Bertin, André Bustorff Fortunato, Begoña Pérez Gómez, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Denis Paradis, Didier Jourdan, Audrey Pasquet, Baptiste Mourre, Joaquín Tintoré, and Robert J. Nicholls

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Preprint under review for NHESS
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Cited articles

AAVV: Novembre 2019 un mese di maree eccezionali. Dinamica e anomalia dell'evento del 12 novembre 2019, available at: http://www.venezia.isprambiente.it/ispra/index.php?action=download&upload_id=173886 (last access: 16 June 2021), 2020. 
Accerboni, E. and Manca, B.: Storm surge forecasting in the Adriatic Sea by means of a two-dimensional hydrodynamical numerical model, Boll. Geofis. Teor. Ed. Appl., 15, 3–22, 1973. 
Álvarez-Fanjul, E., Pérez-Gómez, B., and Rodríguez Sánchez Arévalo, I.: Nivmar: a storm surge forecasting system for Spanish waters, Sci. Mar., 65, 145–154, https://doi.org/10.3989/scimar.2001.65s1145, 2001. 
Artegiani, A., Azzolini, R., and Salusti, E.: On the dense water in the Adriatic Sea, Oceanol. Acta, 12, 151–160, 1989. 
Artegiani, A., Paschini, E., Russo, A., Bregant, D., Raicich, F., and Pinardi, N.: The Adriatic Sea General Circulation. Part I: Air–Sea Interactions and Water Mass Structure, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 27, 1492–1514, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1997)027<1492:tasgcp>2.0.co;2, 1997a. 
Short summary
The city of Venice relies crucially on a good storm surge forecast to protect its population and cultural heritage. In this paper, we provide a state-of-the-art review of storm surge forecasting, starting from examples in Europe and focusing on the Adriatic Sea and the Lagoon of Venice. We discuss the physics of storm surge, as well as the particular aspects of Venice and new techniques in storm surge modeling. We also give recommendations on what a future forecasting system should look like.
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