Articles | Volume 20, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-695-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-695-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
02 Mar 2020
Research article |
| 02 Mar 2020
| 02 Mar 2020
Global-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systems
Institute for Environment and Human
Security (UNU-EHS), United Nations University, UN Campus, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, 53113 Bonn,
Germany
Stefan Siebert
Department of Crop Sciences, University of Göttingen,
Von-Siebold-Strasse 8, 37075 Göttingen, Germany
Petra Döll
Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe University Frankfurt,
Altenhöferallee 1, 60438 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre
Frankfurt (SBiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Jürgen Kusche
Institute of Geodesy and Geoinformation (IGG), University of Bonn,
Nussallee 17, 53115 Bonn, Germany
Claudia Herbert
Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe University Frankfurt,
Altenhöferallee 1, 60438 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei
Department of Crop Sciences, University of Göttingen,
Von-Siebold-Strasse 8, 37075 Göttingen, Germany
Hamideh Nouri
Department of Crop Sciences, University of Göttingen,
Von-Siebold-Strasse 8, 37075 Göttingen, Germany
Helena Gerdener
Institute of Geodesy and Geoinformation (IGG), University of Bonn,
Nussallee 17, 53115 Bonn, Germany
Eklavyya Popat
Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe University Frankfurt,
Altenhöferallee 1, 60438 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Janna Frischen
Institute for Environment and Human
Security (UNU-EHS), United Nations University, UN Campus, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, 53113 Bonn,
Germany
Gustavo Naumann
European Commission (EC), Joint Research Centre (JRC), Via Enrico
Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, VA, Italy
Jürgen V. Vogt
European Commission (EC), Joint Research Centre (JRC), Via Enrico
Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, VA, Italy
Yvonne Walz
Institute for Environment and Human
Security (UNU-EHS), United Nations University, UN Campus, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, 53113 Bonn,
Germany
Zita Sebesvari
Institute for Environment and Human
Security (UNU-EHS), United Nations University, UN Campus, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, 53113 Bonn,
Germany
Michael Hagenlocher
Institute for Environment and Human
Security (UNU-EHS), United Nations University, UN Campus, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, 53113 Bonn,
Germany
Related authors
No articles found.
Hannes Müller Schmied, Tim Trautmann, Sebastian Ackermann, Denise Cáceres, Martina Flörke, Helena Gerdener, Ellen Kynast, Thedini Asali Peiris, Leonie Schiebener, Maike Schumacher, and Petra Döll
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8817–8852, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8817-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing water availability and water use at the global scale is challenging but essential for a range of purposes. We describe the newest version of the global hydrological model WaterGAP, which has been used for numerous water resource assessments since 1996. We show the effects of new model features, as well as model evaluations, against water abstraction statistics and observed streamflow and water storage anomalies. The publicly available model output for several variants is described.
Emmanuel Nyenah, Petra Döll, Daniel S. Katz, and Robert Reinecke
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8593–8611, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8593-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8593-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Research software is vital for scientific progress but is often developed by scientists with limited skills, time, and funding, leading to challenges in usability and maintenance. Our study across 10 sectors shows strengths in version control, open-source licensing, and documentation while emphasizing the need for containerization and code quality. We recommend workshops; code quality metrics; funding; and following the findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR) standards.
Seyed-Mohammad Hosseini-Moghari and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-291, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-291, 2024
Preprint under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Modeling reservoir outflow and storage is challenging due to limited publicly available data and human decision-making. For 100 reservoirs in the USA, we examined how calibrating reservoir algorithms against outflow and storage-related variables affects performance. We found that calibration notably improves storage simulations, while outflow simulations are more influenced by the quality of inflow data. We recommend using remotely sensed storage anomalies to calibrate reservoir algorithms.
Edward Sparkes, Davide Cotti, Angel Valdiviezo Ajila, Saskia E. Werners, and Michael Hagenlocher
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2844, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2844, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Impact Webs are a methodology designed to better understand and characterize complex risks. Understanding the complexity of risks, is a key step in reducing and managing disaster risks. This paper outlines the rationale for Impact Webs and the steps for co-creation and use. Impact Webs allow for an in-depth analysis while accounting for their interactions within the systems in which they exist. They can be used to provide guidance for risk management options.
Petra Döll, Howlader Mohammad Mehedi Hasan, Kerstin Schulze, Helena Gerdener, Lara Börger, Somayeh Shadkam, Sebastian Ackermann, Seyed-Mohammad Hosseini-Moghari, Hannes Müller Schmied, Andreas Güntner, and Jürgen Kusche
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2259–2295, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2259-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2259-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Currently, global hydrological models do not benefit from observations of model output variables to reduce and quantify model output uncertainty. For the Mississippi River basin, we explored three approaches for using both streamflow and total water storage anomaly observations to adjust the parameter sets in a global hydrological model. We developed a method for considering the observation uncertainties to quantify the uncertainty of model output and provide recommendations.
Laura Müller and Petra Döll
Geosci. Commun., 7, 121–144, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-121-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To be able to adapt to climate change, stakeholders need to be informed about future uncertain climate change hazards. Using freely available output of global hydrological models, we quantified future local changes in water resources and their uncertainty. To communicate these in participatory processes, we propose using "percentile boxes" to support the development of flexible strategies for climate risk management worldwide, involving stakeholders and scientists.
Torsten Kanzow, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Mölg, Mirko Scheinert, Matthias Braun, Hans Burchard, Francesca Doglioni, Philipp Hochreuther, Martin Horwath, Oliver Huhn, Jürgen Kusche, Erik Loebel, Katrina Lutz, Ben Marzeion, Rebecca McPherson, Mahdi Mohammadi-Aragh, Marco Möller, Carolyne Pickler, Markus Reinert, Monika Rhein, Martin Rückamp, Janin Schaffer, Muhammad Shafeeque, Sophie Stolzenberger, Ralph Timmermann, Jenny Turton, Claudia Wekerle, and Ole Zeising
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-757, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-757, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Greenland Ice Sheet represents the second-largest contributor to global sea-level rise. We quantify atmosphere, ice and ocean-based processes related to the mass balance of glaciers in Northeast Greenland, focusing on Greenland’s largest floating ice tongue, the 79N Glacier. We find that together, the different in situ and remote sensing observations and model simulations to reveal a consistent picture of a coupled atmosphere-ice sheet-ocean system, that has entered a phase of major change.
Roland Baatz, Gohar Ghazaryan, Michael Hagenlocher, Claas Nendel, Andrea Toreti, and Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1069, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our analysis of over 130,000 peer-reviewed articles on drought research reveals critical shifts towards interdisciplinary approaches. Research priorities are identified in methodological advancements of drought forecasting and in plant genetics. The systemic nature of drought impacts is demonstrated. Challenges identified are the integration of plant physiological response in forecasting, fostering machine learning and early warning systems, and more systemic drought resilience frameworks.
Matthias O. Willen, Martin Horwath, Eric Buchta, Mirko Scheinert, Veit Helm, Bernd Uebbing, and Jürgen Kusche
The Cryosphere, 18, 775–790, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-775-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-775-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Shrinkage of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) leads to sea level rise. Satellite gravimetry measures AIS mass changes. We apply a new method that overcomes two limitations: low spatial resolution and large uncertainties due to the Earth's interior mass changes. To do so, we additionally include data from satellite altimetry and climate and firn modelling, which are evaluated in a globally consistent way with thoroughly characterized errors. The results are in better agreement with independent data.
H. M. Mehedi Hasan, Petra Döll, Seyed-Mohammad Hosseini-Moghari, Fabrice Papa, and Andreas Güntner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2324, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2324, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We calibrate a global hydrological model using multiple observations to analyse the benefits and trade-offs of multi-variable calibration. We found such an approach to be very important for understanding the real-world system. However, some observations are very essential to the system, in particular streamflow. We also showed uncertainties in the calibration results, which is often useful for making informed decisions. We emphasis to consider observation uncertainty in model calibration.
Thedini Asali Peiris and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3663–3686, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3663-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological models often overlook vegetation's response to CO2 and climate, impairing their ability to forecast impacts on evapotranspiration and water resources. To address this, we suggest involving two model variants: (1) the standard method and (2) a modified approach (proposed here) based on the Priestley–Taylor equation (PT-MA). While not universally applicable, a dual approach helps consider uncertainties related to vegetation responses to climate change, enhancing model representation.
Claudia Herbert and Petra Döll
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2111–2131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2111-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new method for selecting streamflow drought hazard indicators for monitoring drought hazard for human water supply and river ecosystems in large-scale drought early warning systems. Indicators are classified by their inherent assumptions about the habituation of people and ecosystems to the streamflow regime and their level of drought characterization, namely drought magnitude (water deficit at a certain point in time) and severity (cumulated magnitude since drought onset).
Martin Horwath, Benjamin D. Gutknecht, Anny Cazenave, Hindumathi Kulaiappan Palanisamy, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Frank Paul, Raymond Le Bris, Anna E. Hogg, Inès Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Petra Döll, Denise Cáceres, Hannes Müller Schmied, Johnny A. Johannessen, Jan Even Øie Nilsen, Roshin P. Raj, René Forsberg, Louise Sandberg Sørensen, Valentina R. Barletta, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Per Knudsen, Ole Baltazar Andersen, Heidi Ranndal, Stine K. Rose, Christopher J. Merchant, Claire R. Macintosh, Karina von Schuckmann, Kristin Novotny, Andreas Groh, Marco Restano, and Jérôme Benveniste
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 411–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-411-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-411-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Global mean sea-level change observed from 1993 to 2016 (mean rate of 3.05 mm yr−1) matches the combined effect of changes in water density (thermal expansion) and ocean mass. Ocean-mass change has been assessed through the contributions from glaciers, ice sheets, and land water storage or directly from satellite data since 2003. Our budget assessments of linear trends and monthly anomalies utilise new datasets and uncertainty characterisations developed within ESA's Climate Change Initiative.
Tom Gleeson, Thorsten Wagener, Petra Döll, Samuel C. Zipper, Charles West, Yoshihide Wada, Richard Taylor, Bridget Scanlon, Rafael Rosolem, Shams Rahman, Nurudeen Oshinlaja, Reed Maxwell, Min-Hui Lo, Hyungjun Kim, Mary Hill, Andreas Hartmann, Graham Fogg, James S. Famiglietti, Agnès Ducharne, Inge de Graaf, Mark Cuthbert, Laura Condon, Etienne Bresciani, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7545–7571, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7545-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Groundwater is increasingly being included in large-scale (continental to global) land surface and hydrologic simulations. However, it is challenging to evaluate these simulations because groundwater is
hiddenunderground and thus hard to measure. We suggest using multiple complementary strategies to assess the performance of a model (
model evaluation).
Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Hannes Müller Schmied, Wim Thiery, Guoyong Leng, Peter Burek, Xingcai Liu, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Manolis Grillakis, Simon Newland Gosling, Yusuke Satoh, Oldrich Rakovec, Tobias Stacke, Jinfeng Chang, Niko Wanders, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Tim Trautmann, Ganquan Mao, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Luis Samaniego, Yoshihide Wada, Vimal Mishra, Junguo Liu, Petra Döll, Fang Zhao, Anne Gädeke, Sam S. Rabin, and Florian Herz
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3843–3878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse water storage compartments, water flows, and human water use sectors included in 16 global water models that provide simulations for the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. We develop a standard writing style for the model equations. We conclude that even though hydrologic processes are often based on similar equations, in the end these equations have been adjusted, or the models have used different values for specific parameters or specific variables.
Simon Deggim, Annette Eicker, Lennart Schawohl, Helena Gerdener, Kerstin Schulze, Olga Engels, Jürgen Kusche, Anita T. Saraswati, Tonie van Dam, Laura Ellenbeck, Denise Dettmering, Christian Schwatke, Stefan Mayr, Igor Klein, and Laurent Longuevergne
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2227–2244, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2227-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2227-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
GRACE provides us with global changes of terrestrial water storage. However, the data have a low spatial resolution, and localized storage changes in lakes/reservoirs or mass change due to earthquakes causes leakage effects. The correction product RECOG RL01 presented in this paper accounts for these effects. Its application allows for improving calibration/assimilation of GRACE into hydrological models and better drought detection in earthquake-affected areas.
Eklavyya Popat and Petra Döll
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1337–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1337-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1337-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Two drought hazard indices are presented that combine drought deficit and anomaly aspects: one for soil moisture drought (SMDAI) where we simplified the DSI and the other for streamflow drought (QDAI), which is to our knowledge the first ever deficit anomaly drought index including surface water demand. Both indices are tested at the global scale with WaterGAP 2.2d outputs, providing more differentiated spatial and temporal patterns distinguishing the actual degree of respective drought hazard.
Hannes Müller Schmied, Denise Cáceres, Stephanie Eisner, Martina Flörke, Claudia Herbert, Christoph Niemann, Thedini Asali Peiris, Eklavyya Popat, Felix Theodor Portmann, Robert Reinecke, Maike Schumacher, Somayeh Shadkam, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Tim Trautmann, and Petra Döll
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1037–1079, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1037-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1037-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In a globalized world with large flows of virtual water between river basins and international responsibilities for the sustainable development of the Earth system and its inhabitants, quantitative estimates of water flows and storages and of water demand by humans are required. Global hydrological models such as WaterGAP are developed to provide this information. Here we present a thorough description, evaluation and application examples of the most recent model version, WaterGAP v2.2d.
Robert Reinecke, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tim Trautmann, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Peter Burek, Martina Flörke, Simon N. Gosling, Manolis Grillakis, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Wim Thiery, Yoshihide Wada, Satoh Yusuke, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 787–810, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Billions of people rely on groundwater as an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Groundwater recharge is the primary process of regenerating groundwater resources. We find that groundwater recharge will increase in northern Europe by about 19 % and decrease by 10 % in the Amazon with 3 °C global warming. In the Mediterranean, a 2 °C warming has already lead to a reduction in recharge by 38 %. However, these model predictions are uncertain.
Carmelo Cammalleri, Carolina Arias-Muñoz, Paulo Barbosa, Alfred de Jager, Diego Magni, Dario Masante, Marco Mazzeschi, Niall McCormick, Gustavo Naumann, Jonathan Spinoni, and Jürgen Vogt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 481–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-481-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-481-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Building on almost ten years of expertise and operational application of the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) for the monitoring of agricultural droughts in Europe within the European Commission's European Drought Observatory (EDO), this paper proposes a revised version of the index. This paper shows that the proposed revised CDI reliably reproduces the evolution of major droughts, outperforming the current version of the indicator, especially for long-lasting events.
Carmelo Cammalleri, Gustavo Naumann, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Bernard Bisselink, Emiliano Gelati, Ad De Roo, and Luc Feyen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5919–5935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5919-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5919-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is anticipated to alter the demand and supply of water at the earth's surface. This study shows how hydrological droughts will change across Europe with increasing global warming levels, showing that at 3 K global warming an additional 11 million people and 4.5 ×106 ha of agricultural land will be exposed to droughts every year, on average. These effects are mostly located in the Mediterranean and Atlantic regions of Europe.
Denise Cáceres, Ben Marzeion, Jan Hendrik Malles, Benjamin Daniel Gutknecht, Hannes Müller Schmied, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4831–4851, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4831-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4831-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed how and to which extent changes in water storage on continents had an effect on global ocean mass over the period 1948–2016. Continents lost water to oceans at an accelerated rate, inducing sea level rise. Shrinking glaciers explain 81 % of the long-term continental water mass loss, while declining groundwater levels, mainly due to sustained groundwater pumping for irrigation, is the second major driver. This long-term decline was partly offset by the impoundment of water in dams.
Tom Gleeson, Thorsten Wagener, Petra Döll, Samuel C. Zipper, Charles West, Yoshihide Wada, Richard Taylor, Bridget Scanlon, Rafael Rosolem, Shams Rahman, Nurudeen Oshinlaja, Reed Maxwell, Min-Hui Lo, Hyungjun Kim, Mary Hill, Andreas Hartmann, Graham Fogg, James S. Famiglietti, Agnès Ducharne, Inge de Graaf, Mark Cuthbert, Laura Condon, Etienne Bresciani, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-378, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-378, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
L. Drees, J. Kusche, and R. Roscher
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., V-2-2020, 813–820, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-2-2020-813-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-2-2020-813-2020, 2020
Seyed-Mohammad Hosseini-Moghari, Shahab Araghinejad, Mohammad J. Tourian, Kumars Ebrahimi, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1939–1956, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1939-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1939-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper uses a multi-objective approach for calibrating the WGHM model to determine the role of human water use and climate variations in the recent loss of water storage in Lake Urmia basin, Iran. We found that even without human water use Lake Urmia would not have recovered from the significant loss of lake water volume caused by the drought year 2008.
Helena Gerdener, Olga Engels, and Jürgen Kusche
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 227–248, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-227-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-227-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
GRACE-derived drought indicators enable us to detect hydrological droughts based on changes observed in all storages. By performing synthetic experiments, we find that droughts identified by existing and modified indicators are biased by trends and GRACE-based spatial noise. A modified version of the Zhao et al. (2017) indicator is found to be particularly robust against spatial noise and is therefore applied to real GRACE data over South Africa.
Robert Reinecke, Laura Foglia, Steffen Mehl, Jonathan D. Herman, Alexander Wachholz, Tim Trautmann, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4561–4582, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4561-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4561-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Recently, the first global groundwater models were developed to better understand surface-water–groundwater interactions and human water use impacts. However, the reliability of model outputs is limited by a lack of data as well as model assumptions required due to the necessarily coarse spatial resolution. In this study we present the first global maps of model sensitivity according to their parameterization and build a foundation to improve datasets, model design, and model understanding.
Stefan Schröder, Anne Springer, Jürgen Kusche, Bernd Uebbing, Luciana Fenoglio-Marc, Bernd Diekkrüger, and Thomas Poméon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4113–4128, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4113-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4113-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We propose deriving altimetric rating curves by
bridginggaps between time series from gauge and altimeter measurements using hydrological model simulations. We investigate several stations at the Niger River, which is a challenging region. We show that altimetry reproduces discharge well and enables continuing the gauge time series, albeit at a lower temporal resolution.
Robert Reinecke, Laura Foglia, Steffen Mehl, Tim Trautmann, Denise Cáceres, and Petra Döll
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2401–2418, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2401-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2401-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
G³M is a new global groundwater model (http://globalgroundwatermodel.org) that simulates lateral and vertical flows as well as exchanges with surface water bodies like rivers, lakes, and wetlands for the whole globe except Antarctica and Greenland. The newly developed model framework enables an efficient integration into established global hydrological models. This paper presents the G³M concept and specific model design decisions together with first results under a naturalized equilibrium.
Christophe Lavaysse, Jürgen Vogt, Andrea Toreti, Marco L. Carrera, and Florian Pappenberger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3297–3309, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3297-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3297-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting droughts in Europe 1 month in advance would provide valuable information for decision makers. However, these extreme events are still difficult to predict. In this study, we develop forecasts based on predictors using the geopotential anomalies, generally more predictable than precipitation, derived from the ECMWF model. Results show that this approach outperforms the prediction using precipitation, especially in winter and in northern Europe, where 65 % of droughts are predicted.
Kristin Vielberg, Ehsan Forootan, Christina Lück, Anno Löcher, Jürgen Kusche, and Klaus Börger
Ann. Geophys., 36, 761–779, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-761-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-761-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
To predict the satellite's motion or its re-entry, the density surrounding the satellite needs to be known as precisely as possible. Usually empirical models are used to estimate the neutral density of the thermosphere, which is the region of the neutrally charged atmosphere. Here, based on calibrated accelerations measured by instruments on board satellites, we compute daily global maps to correct modeled densities. During times of high solar activity, corrections of up to 28 % are necessary.
Zhongwei Huang, Mohamad Hejazi, Xinya Li, Qiuhong Tang, Chris Vernon, Guoyong Leng, Yaling Liu, Petra Döll, Stephanie Eisner, Dieter Gerten, Naota Hanasaki, and Yoshihide Wada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2117–2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2117-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2117-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study generate a historical global monthly gridded water withdrawal data (0.5 × 0.5 degrees) for the period 1971–2010, distinguishing six water use sectors (irrigation, domestic, electricity generation, livestock, mining, and manufacturing). This dataset is the first reconstructed global water withdrawal data product at sub-annual and gridded resolution that is derived from different models and data sources, and was generated by spatially and temporally downscaling country-scale estimates.
Christina Lück, Jürgen Kusche, Roelof Rietbroek, and Anno Löcher
Solid Earth, 9, 323–339, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-323-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-323-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Since 2002, the GRACE mission provides estimates of the Earth's time-variable gravity field, from which one can derive ocean mass variability. Now that the GRACE mission has come to an end, it is especially important to find alternative ways for deriving ocean mass changes. For the first time, we use kinematic orbits of Swarm for computing ocean mass time series. We compute monthly solutions, but also show an alternative way of directly estimating time-variable spherical harmonic coefficients.
Christophe Lavaysse, Carmelo Cammalleri, Alessandro Dosio, Gerard van der Schrier, Andrea Toreti, and Jürgen Vogt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 91–104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-91-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-91-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme-temperature anomalies such as heat and cold waves may have strong impacts on human activities and health. Providing a robust operational system to monitor extreme-temperature anomalies in Europe, developed and validated in this study, is thus of prime importance. This work exposes the methodology and the climatology of these events. It also discusses the associated uncertainties according to the datasets and the methods used.
Carmelo Cammalleri, Jürgen V. Vogt, Bernard Bisselink, and Ad de Roo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6329–6343, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6329-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6329-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Drought can affect large regions of the world, implying the need for a global monitoring tool. For the JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO,
http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo/), 3 soil moisture anomaly datasets have been compared, in order to evaluate their consistency. The analysis performed on five macro-regions (North America, Europe, India, southern Africa and Australia) suggests the need to combine these different data sources in order to obtain robust assessments over a variety of conditions.
Tingju Zhu, Petra Döll, Hannes Müller Schmied, Claudia Ringler, and Mark W. Rosegrant
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-216, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-216, 2017
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Short summary
The global hydrological model IGHM was developed to simulate water availability over global land areas month by month. The simulated water availability is for analyzing irrigation water supply and crop production in a global water and food projections model, IMPACT. Water availability simulated by another global hydrological model, WGHM, was used to determine parameter values in IGHM. This paper describes the structure of IGHM, the method of its parameter determination, and its performance.
Hannes Müller Schmied, Linda Adam, Stephanie Eisner, Gabriel Fink, Martina Flörke, Hyungjun Kim, Taikan Oki, Felix Theodor Portmann, Robert Reinecke, Claudia Riedel, Qi Song, Jing Zhang, and Petra Döll
Proc. IAHS, 374, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-53-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-53-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed simulated water balance components on global and continental scale as impacted by the uncertainty of climate forcing datasets. On average, around 62 % of precipitation on global land area evapotranspires and 38 % is discharge to oceans and inland sinks. Human water use increased during the 20th century by a factor of 5. Uncertainty of precipitation variable has most impact on model results, followed by shortwave downward radiation. Model calibration reduces this uncertainty.
Hannes Müller Schmied, Linda Adam, Stephanie Eisner, Gabriel Fink, Martina Flörke, Hyungjun Kim, Taikan Oki, Felix Theodor Portmann, Robert Reinecke, Claudia Riedel, Qi Song, Jing Zhang, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2877–2898, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2877-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2877-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The assessment of water balance components of the global land surface by means of hydrological models is affected by large uncertainties, in particular related to meteorological forcing. We analyze the effect of five state-of-the-art forcings on water balance components at different spatial and temporal scales modeled with WaterGAP. Furthermore, the dominant effect (precipitation/human alteration) for long-term changes in river discharge is assessed.
Veit Blauhut, Kerstin Stahl, James Howard Stagge, Lena M. Tallaksen, Lucia De Stefano, and Jürgen Vogt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2779–2800, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2779-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2779-2016, 2016
C. Lavaysse, J. Vogt, and F. Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3273–3286, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3273-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3273-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the predictability of meteorological droughts over Europe 1 month in advance using ensemble prediction systems.
It has been shown that, on average and using the most relevant method, 40 % of droughts in Europe are correctly forecasted, with less than 25 % false alarms.
This study is a reference for other studies that are motivated to improving the drought forecasting.
J. Spinoni, G. Naumann, and J. Vogt
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 179–186, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-179-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-179-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates meteorological droughts in Europe for the periods 1981-2010, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 under a moderate emissions scenario. SPI and SPEI are used to analyze drought frequency, duration, severity, and intensity. Results show that southern Europe is likely to be hit by longer, more frequent, severe, and intense droughts in the near future (2041-2070) and even more in the far future (2071-2100), while less severe and fewer drought events are likely to occur in northern Europe.
K. Frieler, A. Levermann, J. Elliott, J. Heinke, A. Arneth, M. F. P. Bierkens, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, D. Deryng, P. Döll, P. Falloon, B. Fekete, C. Folberth, A. D. Friend, C. Gellhorn, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Khabarov, M. Lomas, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, K. Neumann, T. Oki, R. Pavlick, A. C. Ruane, E. Schmid, C. Schmitz, T. Stacke, E. Stehfest, Q. Tang, D. Wisser, V. Huber, F. Piontek, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, H. Lotze-Campen, and H. J. Schellnhuber
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 447–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, 2015
S. Siebert, M. Kummu, M. Porkka, P. Döll, N. Ramankutty, and B. R. Scanlon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1521–1545, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1521-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1521-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We developed the historical irrigation data set (HID) depicting the spatio-temporal development of the area equipped for irrigation (AEI) between 1900 and 2005 at 5arcmin resolution.
The HID reflects very well the spatial patterns of irrigated land as shown on two historical maps for 1910 and 1960.
Global AEI increased from 63 million ha (Mha) in 1900 to 111 Mha in 1950 and 306 Mha in 2005. Mean aridity on irrigated land increased and mean natural river discharge decreased from 1900 to 1950.
T. Antofie, G. Naumann, J. Spinoni, and J. Vogt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 177–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-177-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-177-2015, 2015
H. Müller Schmied, S. Eisner, D. Franz, M. Wattenbach, F. T. Portmann, M. Flörke, and P. Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3511–3538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3511-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3511-2014, 2014
E. Dutra, F. Wetterhall, F. Di Giuseppe, G. Naumann, P. Barbosa, J. Vogt, W. Pozzi, and F. Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2657–2667, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2657-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2657-2014, 2014
E. Dutra, W. Pozzi, F. Wetterhall, F. Di Giuseppe, L. Magnusson, G. Naumann, P. Barbosa, J. Vogt, and F. Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2669–2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2669-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2669-2014, 2014
G. Naumann, E. Dutra, P. Barbosa, F. Pappenberger, F. Wetterhall, and J. V. Vogt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1625–1640, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1625-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1625-2014, 2014
G. Naumann, P. Barbosa, L. Garrote, A. Iglesias, and J. Vogt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1591–1604, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1591-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1591-2014, 2014
H. Hoff, P. Döll, M. Fader, D. Gerten, S. Hauser, and S. Siebert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 213–226, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-213-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-213-2014, 2014
J. Spinoni, T. Antofie, P. Barbosa, Z. Bihari, M. Lakatos, S. Szalai, T. Szentimrey, and J. Vogt
Adv. Sci. Res., 10, 21–32, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-10-21-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-10-21-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Flood risk assessment through large-scale modeling under uncertainty
Migration as a hidden risk factor in seismic fatality: a spatial modeling of the Chi-Chi earthquake and suburban syndrome
Simulating the effects of sea level rise and soil salinization on adaptation and migration decisions in Mozambique
Current status of water-related planning for climate change adaptation in the Spree river basin, Germany
Using a convection-permitting climate model to assess wine grape productivity: two case studies in Italy
Volcanic risk ranking and regional mapping of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes
Development of a regionally consistent and fully probabilistic earthquake risk model for Central Asia
Critical infrastructure resilience: a guide for building indicator systems based on a multi-criteria framework with a focus on implementable actions
Where to start with climate-smart forest management? Climatic risk for forest-based mitigation
Dynamic response of pile–slab retaining wall structure under rockfall impact
Urban growth and spatial segregation increase disaster risk: lessons learned from the 2023 disaster on the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil
Enhancement of state response capability and famine mitigation: A comparative analysis of two drought events in northern China during the Ming dynasty
An impact-chain-based exploration of multi-hazard vulnerability dynamics: the multi-hazard of floods and the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania
Always on my mind: indications of post-traumatic stress disorder among those affected by the 2021 flood event in the Ahr valley, Germany
Earthquake insurance in Iran: solvency of local insurers in light of current market practices
Micro-business participation in collective flood adaptation: lessons from scenario-based analysis in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Brief communication: Storm Daniel flood impact in Greece in 2023: mapping crop and livestock exposure from synthetic-aperture radar (SAR)
Flood exposure of environmental assets
Risk reduction through managed retreat? Investigating enabling conditions and assessing resettlement effects on community resilience in Metro Manila
Brief communication: Lessons learned and experiences gained from building up a global survey on societal resilience to changing droughts
Regional seismic risk assessment based on ground conditions in Uzbekistan
Unveiling transboundary challenges in river flood risk management: learning from the Ciliwung River basin
Quantitative study of storm surge risk assessment in an undeveloped coastal area of China based on deep learning and geographic information system techniques: a case study of Double Moon Bay
Adaptive Behavior of Over a Million Individual Farmers Under Consecutive Droughts: A Large-Scale Agent-Based Modeling Analysis in the Bhima Basin, India
Review article: Insuring the green economy against natural hazards – charting research frontiers in vulnerability assessment
Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas
Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal
Simulating multi-hazard event sets for life cycle consequence analysis
Analysis of the effects of urban micro-scale vulnerabilities on tsunami evacuation using an agent-based model – case study in the city of Iquique, Chile
Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics, and accuracy of risk perceptions
Anticipating a risky future: long short-term memory (LSTM) models for spatiotemporal extrapolation of population data in areas prone to earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
A new regionally consistent exposure database for Central Asia: population and residential buildings
Ready, set, go! An anticipatory action system against droughts
Study on seismic risk assessment model of water supply systems in mainland China
Mapping current and future flood exposure using a 5 m flood model and climate change projections
A New Method for Calculating Highway Blocking due to High Impact Weather Conditions
Brief communication: On the environmental impacts of the 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna (Italy)
A regional-scale approach to assessing non-residential building, transportation and cropland exposure in Central Asia
Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones
Identifying vulnerable populations in urban society: a case study in a flood-prone district of Wuhan, China
An assessment of potential improvements in social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness from digital technologies
Spatial accessibility of emergency medical services under inclement weather: a case study in Beijing, China
Review article: Current approaches and critical issues in multi-risk recovery planning of urban areas exposed to natural hazards
Estimating emergency costs for earthquakes and floods in Central Asia based on modelled losses
Compound flood impacts from Hurricane Sandy on New York City in climate-driven storylines
Regional-scale landslide risk assessment in Central Asia
Cost estimation for the monitoring instrumentation of landslide early warning systems
The role of response efficacy and self-efficacy in disaster preparedness actions for vulnerable households
Scientists as storytellers: the explanatory power of stories told about environmental crises
Back analysis of a building collapse under snow and rain loads in a Mediterranean area
Luciano Pavesi, Elena Volpi, and Aldo Fiori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4507–4522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Several sources of uncertainty affect flood risk estimation for reliable assessment for investment, insurance and risk management. Here, we consider the uncertainty of large-scale flood hazard modeling, providing a range of risk values that show significant variability depending on geomorphic factors and land use types. This allows for identifying the critical points where single-value estimates may underestimate the risk and the areas of vulnerability for prioritizing risk reduction efforts.
Tzu-Hsin Karen Chen, Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin, Thung-Hong Lin, Gee-Yu Liu, Chin-Hsun Yeh, and Diana Maria Ceballos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4457–4471, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows migration patterns to be a critical factor in seismic fatalities. Analyzing the Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, we find that lower income and a higher indigenous population at migrants' origins are correlated with higher fatalities at their destinations. This underscores the need for affordable and safe housing on the outskirts of megacities, where migrants from lower-income and historically marginalized groups are more likely to reside due to precarious employment conditions.
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4409–4429, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As sea levels rise, coastal areas will experience more frequent flooding, and salt water will start seeping into the soil, which is a serious issue for farmers who rely on good soil quality for their crops. Here, we studied coastal Mozambique to understand the risks from sea level rise and flooding by looking at how salt intrusion affects farming and how floods damage buildings. We find that 15 %–21 % of coastal households will adapt and 13 %–20 % will migrate to inland areas in the future.
Saskia Arndt and Stefan Heiland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4369–4383, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the current status of climate change adaptation in plans for water management, spatial planning and landscape planning in the Spree river basin. Only 39 % of 28 plans analysed specify objectives and measures for adaptation to climate change. To fill this gap, more frequent updates of plans, a stronger focus on multifunctional measures, and the adaptation of best-practice examples for systematic integration of climate change impacts and adaptation are needed.
Laura T. Massano, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Gaetani, and Cécile Caillaud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4293–4315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Traditional wine-growing regions are threatened by expected climate change. Climate models and observations are used to calculate bioclimatic indices based on both temperature and precipitation. These indices are correlated with grape productivity in two wine-growing regions in Italy. This analysis paves the way for using climate models to study how climate change will affect wine production in the future.
María-Paz Reyes-Hardy, Luigia Sara Di Maio, Lucia Dominguez, Corine Frischknecht, Sébastien Biass, Leticia Freitas Guimarães, Amiel Nieto-Torres, Manuela Elissondo, Gabriela Pedreros, Rigoberto Aguilar, Álvaro Amigo, Sebastián García, Pablo Forte, and Costanza Bonadonna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4267–4291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes (CVZA) spans four countries with 59 volcanoes. We identify those with the most intense and frequent eruptions and the highest potential impact that require risk mitigation actions. Using multiple risk factors, we encourage the use of regional volcanic risk assessments to analyse the level of preparedness especially of transboundary volcanoes. We hope that our work will motivate further collaborative studies and promote cooperation between CVZA countries.
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mario Ordaz, Benjamín Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Carlos Avelar, Ettore Fagà, Mohsen Kohrangi, Paola Ceresa, Georgios Triantafyllou, and Ulugbek T. Begaliev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3851–3868, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to earthquake losses, which can heavily impact different types of assets. This paper presents the details of a probabilistic earthquake risk model which made use of a regionally consistent approach to assess feasible earthquake losses in five countries. Results are presented in terms of commonly used risk metrics, which are aimed at facilitating a policy dialogue regarding different disaster risk management strategies, from risk mitigation to disaster risk financing.
Zhuyu Yang, Bruno Barroca, Ahmed Mebarki, Katia Laffréchine, Hélène Dolidon, and Lionel Lilas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3723–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To integrate resilience assessment into practical management, this study designs a step-by-step guide that enables managers of critical infrastructure (CI) to create specific indicator systems tailored to real cases. This guide considers the consequences of hazards to CI and the cost–benefit analysis and side effects of implementable actions. The assessment results assist managers, as they are based on a multi-criterion framework that addresses several factors valued in practical management.
Natalie Piazza, Luca Malanchini, Edoardo Nevola, and Giorgio Vacchiano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3579–3595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Natural disturbances are projected to intensify in the future, threatening our forests and their functions such as wood production, protection against natural hazards, and carbon sequestration. By assessing risks to forests from wind and fire damage, alongside the vulnerability of carbon, it is possible to prioritize forest stands at high risk. In this study, we propose a novel methodological approach to support climate-smart forest management and inform better decision-making.
Peng Zou, Gang Luo, Yuzhang Bi, and Hanhua Xu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3497–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The pile–slab retaining wall, an innovative rockfall shield, is widely used in China's western mountains. However, its dynamic impact response and resistance remain unclear due to structural complexity. A comprehensive dynamic analysis of the structure, under various impacts, was done using the finite-element method. The maximum impact energy that the structure can withstand is 905 kJ, and various indexes were obtained.
Cassiano Bastos Moroz and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3299–3314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the influence of urban processes on the impacts of the 2023 disaster that hit the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil. The impacts of the disaster were largely associated with rapid urban expansion over the last 3 decades, with a recent occupation of risky areas. Moreover, lower-income neighborhoods were considerably more severely impacted, which evidences their increased exposure to such events. These results highlight the strong association between disaster risk and urban poverty.
Fangyu Tian, Yun Su, Xudong Chen, and Le Tao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-159, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-159, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a model of extreme drought-induced famine processes and response mechanisms in ancient China. Spatial distribution of drought and famine during the Chenghua Drought and the Wanli Drought was constructed. By categorizing drought-affected counties into three types, a comparative analysis of the differences in famine severity and response effectiveness between the Chenghua and Wanli droughts was conducted.
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2895–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study delves into the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an enhanced impact-chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The impact chain shows that (1) the unforeseen implications of impacts, (2) the wrongful action of adaptation options, and (3) inaction can form the basis for increased vulnerability.
Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2837–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the visible flood damage, mental health is a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany on mental health impacts after floods. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed that 28 % of respondents showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder 1 year later. Risk factors include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2707–2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Iranian insurers have been offering earthquake coverage since the 1990s. However, despite international best practices, they still do not use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to be accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practices with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modeling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2425–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Elias Dimitriou, Angeliki Mentzafou, Christina Papadaki, Maria Stoumboudi, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2375–2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
About 820 km2 of agricultural land was inundated in central Greece due to Storm Daniel. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~ 30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimate that more than 14 000 ornithoids and 21 500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe.
Gabriele Bertoli, Chiara Arrighi, and Enrica Caporali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-105, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-105, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Environmental assets are crucial to sustain and fulfil life on Earth through ecosystem services. Assessing their flood risk is thus seminal, besides required by several norms. Even though, this field is not yet sufficiently developed. We explored the exposure component of the flood risk, and developed an evaluating methodology based on the ecosystem services provided by the environmental assets, to discern assets and areas more important than others with metrics suitable to large scale studies.
Hannes Lauer, Carmeli Marie C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, and Jörn Birkmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2243–2261, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In many urban areas, people face high exposure to hazards. Resettling them to safer locations becomes a major strategy, not least because of climate change. This paper dives into the success factors of government-led resettlement in Manila and finds surprising results which challenge the usual narrative and fuel the conversation on resettlement as an adaptation strategy. Contrary to expectations, the location – whether urban or rural – of the new home is less important than safety from floods.
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Marcos Roberto Benso, Karina Simone Sass, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Greicelene Jesus da Silva, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Elisabeth Shrimpton, Tanaya Sarmah, Da Huo, Michael Jacobson, Abdullah Konak, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, and Adelaide Cassia Nardocci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2165–2173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of surveys to help further research.
Vakhitkhan Alikhanovich Ismailov, Sharofiddin Ismatullayevich Yodgorov, Akhror Sabriddinovich Khusomiddinov, Eldor Makhmadiyorovich Yadigarov, Bekzod Uktamovich Aktamov, and Shuhrat Bakhtiyorovich Avazov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2133–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the basis of seismic risk assessment, maps of seismic intensity increment and an improved map of seismic hazard have been developed, taking into account the engineering-geological conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan and the seismic characteristics of soils. For seismic risk map development, databases were created based on geographic information system platforms, allowing us to systematize and evaluate the regional distribution of information.
Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu, Khonsa Indana Zulfa, Dewi Nurhasanah, Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga, and In In Wahdiny
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2045–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Transboundary flood risk management in the Ciliwung River basin is placed in a broader context of disaster management, environmental science, and governance. This is particularly relevant for areas of research involving the management of shared water resources, the impact of regional development on flood risk, and strategies to reduce economic losses from flooding.
Lichen Yu, Hao Qin, Shining Huang, Wei Wei, Haoyu Jiang, and Lin Mu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2003–2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a quantitative storm surge risk assessment method for data-deficient regions. A coupled model is used to simulate five storm surge scenarios. Deep learning is used to extract building footprints. Economic losses are calculated by combining adjusted depth–damage functions with inundation simulation results. Zoning maps illustrate risk levels based on economic losses, aiding in disaster prevention measures to reduce losses in coastal areas.
Maurice W. M. L. Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Heidi Kreibich, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1588, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1588, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores how farmers in India's Bhima basin respond to consecutive droughts. We simulated all farmers' individual choices—like changing crops or digging wells—and their effects on profits, yields, and water resources. Results show these adaptations, while improving incomes, ultimately increase drought vulnerability and damages. Such insights emphasize the need for alternative adaptations and highlight the value of socio-hydrology models in shaping policies to lessen drought impacts.
Harikesan Baskaran, Ioanna Ioannou, Tiziana Rossetto, Jonas Cels, Mathis Joffrain, Nicolas Mortegoutte, Aurelie Fallon Saint-Lo, and Catalina Spataru
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-82, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-82, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
There is a global need for insuring green economy assets against natural hazard events. But their complexity and low exposure history, means the data required for vulnerability evaluation by the insurance industry is scarce. A systematic literature review is conducted in this study, to determine the suitability of current, published literature for this purpose. Knowledge gaps are charted, and a representative asset-hazard taxonomy is proposed, to guide future, quantitative research.
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean W. D. Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1871–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth, economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States, is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
Alex Dunant, Tom R. Robinson, Alexander Logan Densmore, Nick J. Rosser, Ragindra Man Rajbhandari, Mark Kincey, Sihan Li, Prem Raj Awasthi, Max Van Wyk de Vries, Ramesh Guragain, Erin Harvey, and Simon Dadson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1374, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1374, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study introduces a new method using hypergraph theory to assess risks from interconnected natural hazards. Traditional models often overlook how these hazards can interact and worsen each other's effects. By applying our method to the 2015 Nepal earthquake, we successfully demonstrated its ability to predict broad damage patterns, despite slightly overestimating impacts. Being able to anticipate the effects of complex, interconnected hazards is critical for disaster preparedness.
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1721–1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a review of the available classifications for hazard interactions in a multi-hazard context, and it incorporates such classifications from a modeling perspective. The outcome is a sequential Monte Carlo approach enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard event sets (i.e., sequences of events throughout the life cycle). These event sets can then be integrated into frameworks for the quantification of consequences for the purposes of life cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis.
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation modeling and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and their decision-making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication. We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall to investigate changes in risk perception. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asian country. The population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
Gabriela Guimarães Nobre, Jamie Towner, Bernardino Nhantumbo, Célio João da Conceição Marcos Matuele, Isaias Raiva, Massimiliano Pasqui, Sara Quaresima, and Rogério Bonifácio
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-538, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-538, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The "Ready, Set & Go!" system, developed by the World Food Programme and partners, employs seasonal forecasts to tackle droughts in Mozambique. With the Maputo Declaration, efforts to expand early warning systems are aligning with global initiatives for universal protection by 2027. Through advanced forecasting and anticipatory action, it could cover 76 % of districts against severe droughts, reaching 87 % national coverage for the first months of the rainy season.
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A basic database for seismic risk assessment of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China is established. The parameters of the seismic risk curves of 720 cities are calculated. The seismic fragility curves of various facilities in the water supply system are given based on the logarithmic normal distribution model. The expected seismic loss and the expected loss rate index of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China in the medium and long term are given.
Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, and Emma K. Raven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of climate change on local floods require precise maps that clearly demarcate changes to flood exposure; however, most maps lack important considerations that reduce their utility in policy and decision-making. This article presents a new approach to identifying current and projected flood exposure using a 5 m model. The results highlight advancements in the mapping of flood exposure with implications for flood risk management.
Duanyang Liu, Tian Jing, Mingyue Yan, Ismail Gultepe, Yunxuan Bao, Hongbin Wang, and Fan Zu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-230, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-230, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The highway-blocking events are characterized by diurnal variation. A classification method of severity levels of highway blocking is developed into five levels. The severity levels of highway blocking due to high-impact weather are evaluated. A method for calculating the degree of highway load in China is proposed. A quantitative assessment of the losses of highway blocking due to dense fog is conducted. The highway losses caused by dense fog are concentrated in North, East and Southwest China.
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and cluster analysis, this study assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents from 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. The findings reveal three levels of social vulnerability: high, medium, and low. Quantitative assessments offer specific comparisons between distinct units, and the results indicate that different types of communities have significant differences in social vulnerability.
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness constitute the parameters to test applications in disaster risk management. We propose an evaluation of four of these: mobile positioning data, social media crowdsourcing, drones, and satellite imaging. The analysis grants the opportunity to investigate how different methods to evaluate surveys' results may influence final preferences. We find that the different assumptions on which these methods rely deliver diverging results.
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of emergency medical services (EMSs) in Beijing, China, and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely EMSs under inclement weather. We found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of EMSs by up to 40%. Furthermore, towns with lower baseline EMSs accessibility are more vulnerable when inclement weather occurs.
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature from a multi-risk perspective. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, and the low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.
Emilio Berny, Carlos Avelar, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mario Ordaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a methodology to estimate the total emergency costs based on modelled damages for earthquakes and floods, together with the demographic and building characteristics of the study area. The methodology has been applied in five countries in central Asia, the first time that these estimates are made available for the study area and are intended to be useful for regional and local stakeholders and decision makers.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Francesco Caleca, Chiara Scaini, William Frodella, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 13–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide risk analysis is a powerful tool because it allows us to identify where physical and economic losses could occur due to a landslide event. The purpose of our work was to provide the first regional-scale analysis of landslide risk for central Asia, and it represents an advanced step in the field of risk analysis for very large areas. Our findings show, per square kilometer, a total risk of about USD 3.9 billion and a mean risk of USD 0.6 million.
Marta Sapena, Moritz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3913–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new approach for the deployment of landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) is proposed. We combine data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping and population maps to identify exposed locations. We estimate the cost of monitoring sensors and demonstrate that LEWSs could be installed with a budget ranging from EUR 5 to EUR 41 per person in Medellín, Colombia. We provide recommendations for stakeholders and outline the challenges and opportunities for successful LEWS implementation.
Dong Qiu, Binglin Lv, Yuepeng Cui, and Zexiong Zhan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3789–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper divides preparedness behavior into minimal and adequate preparedness. In addition to studying the main factors that promote families' disaster preparedness, we also study the moderating effects of response efficacy and self-efficacy on preparedness actions by vulnerable families. Based on the findings of this study, policymakers can target interventions and programs that can be designed to remedy the current lack of disaster preparedness education for vulnerable families.
Jenni Barclay, Richie Robertson, and M. Teresa Armijos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3603–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stories create avenues for sharing the meanings and social implications of scientific knowledge. We explore their value when told between scientists during a volcanic eruption. They are important vehicles for understanding how risk is generated during volcanic eruptions and create new knowledge about these interactions. Stories explore how risk is negotiated when scientific information is ambiguous or uncertain, identify cause and effect, and rationalize the emotional intensity of a crisis.
Isabelle Ousset, Guillaume Evin, Damien Raynaud, and Thierry Faug
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3509–3523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper deals with an exceptional snow and rain event in a Mediterranean region of France which is usually not prone to heavy snowfall and its consequences on a particular building that collapsed completely. Independent analyses of the meteorological episode are carried out, and the response of the building to different snow and rain loads is confronted to identify the main critical factors that led to the collapse.
Cited articles
Beccari, B.: A Comparative Analysis of Disaster Risk, Vulnerability and Resilience Composite Indicators, Plos Currents, 8, https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.dis.453df025e34b682e9737f95, 2016.
Beck, H. E., Zimmermann, N. E., McVicar, T. R., Vergopolan, N., Berg, A., and Wood, E. F.: Present and future Köppen–Geiger climate classification maps at 1-km resolution, Scient. Data, 5, 180214, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4128-0, 2018.
Carrão, H., Naumann, G., and Barbosa, P.: Mapping global patterns of drought risk: An empirical framework based on sub-national estimates of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, Global Environ. Change, 39, 108–124, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.04.012, 2016.
Carrão, H., Naumann, G., and Barbosa, P.: Global projections of drought
hazard in a warming climate: a prime for disaster risk management, Clim. Dynam., 50, 2137–2155, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3740-8, 2017.
CRED and UNISDR: Economic losses, poverty & disasters: 1998–2017,
available at: https://www.unisdr.org/files/61119_credeconomiclosses.pdf (last access: 13 May 2019), 2018.
Dai, A.: Drought under global warming: a review, Wiley Interdisciplin. Rev.: Clim. Change, 2, 45–65, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.81, 2011.
Damberg, L. and AghaKouchak, A.: Global trends and patterns of drought from
space, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 117, 441–448, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.81, 2014.
De Sherbinin, A., Apotsos, A., and Chevrier, J.: Mapping the future: policy
applications of climate vulnerability mapping in West Africa, Geogr. J., 183, 414–425, https://doi.org/10.1111/geoj.12226, 2017.
de Sherbinin, A., Bukvic, A., Rohat, G., Gall, M., McCusker, B., Preston, B., Apotsos, A., Fish, C., Kienberger, S., Muhonda, P., Wilhelmi, O., Macharia, D., Shubert, W., Sliuzas, R., Tomaszewski, B., and Zhang, S.: Climate vulnerability mapping: A systematic review and future prospects, Wiley Interdisciplin. Rev.: Climate Change, 10, e600, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.600, 2019.
Dilley, M., Chen, R. S., Deichmann, U., Lerner-Lam, A. L, Arnold, M., Agew,
J., Buys, P., Kjevstad, O., Lyon, B., and Yetman, G.: Natural Disaster
Hotspots: a Global Risk Analysis, World Bank Publications, Washington, D.C.,
2005.
Enders, C. K.: Using the Expectation Maximization Algorithm to Estimate
Coefficient Alpha for Scales With Item-Level Missing Data, Psychol Meth., 8, 322–337, https://doi.org/10.1037/1082-989X.8.3.322, 2003.
FAO: FAOSTAT Statistical Database: Average land degradation in GLASOD erosion degree, available at: http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/ES (last access: 25 March 2019), 1991a.
FAO: FAOSTAT Statistical Database: Average soil erosion, available at: http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/ES (last access: 25 March 2019), 1991b.
FAO: FAOSTAT Statistical Database: Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP), available at: http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/MK (last access: 15 May 2019), 2016a.
FAO: FAOSTAT Statistical Database: Pesticides and insecticides (total), available at: http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RP (last access: 12 April 2019), 2016b.
FAO: The impact of disasters and crises on agriculture and food security,
available at: http://www.fao.org/3/I8656EN/i8656en.pdf (last access: 1 July 2019), 2018.
FAO: Main Database: Total dam storage capacity per capita, available at: http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/data/query/index.html?lang=en (last access: 16 April 2019), 2017.
FAO AQUASTAT: Main Database: Total renewable water resources per capita, available at: http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/data/query/index.html?lang=en (last access: 16 April 2019), 2014.
Field, A.: Discovering statistics using IBM SPSS statistics, 4th Edn., Sage, London, 2013.
Freire-González, J., Decker, C., and Hall, J. W.: The Economic Impacts of
Droughts: A Framework for Analysis, Ecol. Econ., 132, 196–204,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.11.005, 2017.
Frenken, K.: Irrigation in Africa in figures, AQUASTAT Survey – 2005, FAO
Water Reports 29, FAO, Rome, Italy, available at: http://www.fao.org/3/A0232E/a0232e.pdf (last access: 14 June 2019), 2005.
Garschagen, M., Hagenlocher, M., Comes, M., Dubbert, M., Sabelfeld, R., Lee,
Y. J., Grunewald, L., Lanzendörfer, M., Mucke, P., Neuschäfer, O.,
Pott, S., Post, J., Schramm, S., Schumann-Bölsche, D., Vandemeulebroecke, B., Welle, T., and Birkmann, J.: World Risk Report 2016, Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft and UNU-EHS, ISBN 9783946785026, 2016.
GBD: Compare, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME): DALYs (Disability-Adjusted Life Years) – All causes – Sex: Both – Age: Age-standardized (Rate) (DALYs per 100 000), available at: http://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare (last access: 28 April 2019), 2016.
Geng, G., Wu, J., Wang, Q., Lei, T., He, B., Li, X., Mo, X., Luo, H., Zhou, H., and Liu, D.: Agricultural drought hazard analysis during 1980–2008: a
global perspective, Int. J. Climatol., 36, 389–399, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4356, 2013.
Geng, G., Wu, J., Wang, Q., Lei, T., He, B., Li, X., Mo, X., Luo, H., Zhou, H., and Liu, D.: Agricultural drought hazard analysis during 1980–2008: A global perspective, Int. J. Climatol., 36, 389–399, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4356, 2016.
Global FINDEX, World Bank: Saved any money in the past year (% age 15+), available at: https://globalfindex.worldbank.org/ (last access: 28 April 2019), 2014–2017.
Güneralp, B., Güneralp, I., and Liu, Y.: Changing global patterns of
urban exposure to flood and drought hazards, Global Environ. Change, 31, 217–225, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.002, 2015.
Hagenlocher, M., Delmelle, E., Casas, I., and Kienberger, S.: Assessing
socioeconomic vulnerability to dengue fever in Cali, Colombia: Statistical
vs expert-based modeling, Int. J. Health Geogr., 12, 36, https://doi.org/10.1186/1476-072X-12-36, 2013.
Hagenlocher, M., Renaud, F. G., Haas, S., and Sebesvari, Z.: Vulnerability and risk of deltaic social-ecological systems exposed to multiple hazards, Sci. Total Environ., 631–632, 71–80 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.013, 2018.
Hagenlocher, M., Meza, I., Anderson, C., Min, A., Renaud, F. G., Walz, Y., and Sebesvari, Z.: Drought vulnerability and risk assessments: state of the
art, persistent gaps, and research agenda, Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 083002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab225d, 2019.
Hao, Z., AghaKouchak, A., Nakhjiri, N., and Farahmand, A.: Global integrated
drought monitoring and prediction system, Scient. Data, 1, 1–10,
https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2014.1, 2014.
Harris, I., Jones, P. D., Osborn, T. J., and Lister, D. H.: Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations – the CRU TS3.10 Dataset, Int. J. Climatol., 34, 623–642, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3711, 2014.
Hinkel, J.: Indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity: Towards a
clarification of the science-policy interface, Global Environ. Change, 21, 198–208, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.08.002, 2011.
Hinkle, D. E., Wiersma, W., and Jurs, S. G.: Applied statistics for the behavioral sciences, 5th Edn., Houghton Mifflin College Division, 2003.
Hirabayashi, Y., Roobavannan, M., Sujan, K., Lisako, K., Dai, Y., Satoshi, W., Hyungjun, K., and Shinjiro, K.: Global flood risk under climate change,
Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 816–821, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1911, 2013.
Holzkamper, A., Fossati, D., Hiltbrunner, J., and Fuhrer, J.,: Spatial and
temporal trends in agro-climatic limitations to production potentials for grain maize and winter wheat in Switzerland, Reg. Environ. Change, 15, 109–122, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0627-7, 2015.
INFORM: INFORM report 2019, Shared evidence for managing crises and disasters, available at: http://www.inform-index.org, last access: 1 July 2019.
IPCC: Climate Change (2014) Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R. K., and Meyer, L. A., IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp., 2014.
Javanmard, S., Emamhadi, M., BodaghJamali, J., and Didehvarasl, A.: Spatial-Temporal Analysis of Drought in Iran Using SPI During a Long-Term
Period, Earth Sci., 6, 15–29, https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20170602.12, 2017.
JRC: Global accessibility map: Travel time to mahor cities: A global map of Accessibility, available at: https://forobs.jrc.ec.europa.eu/products/gam/ (last access: 10 April 2019), 2015.
Kloos, J. and Renaud, F. G.: Overview of ecosystem-based approaches to drought risk reduction targeting small-scale farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa,
in: Ecosystem-Based Disaster Risk Reduction and Adaptation in Practice, Series: Advances in natural and technological hazards research, edited by: Renaud, F. G., Sudmeier-Rieux, K., Estrella, M., and Nehren, U., Springer, Cham, 199–226, 2016.
Koks, E. E., Rozenberg, J., Zorn, C., Tariverdi, M., Vousdoukas, M., Fraser,
S .A., Hall, J. W., and Hallegatte, S.: A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets, Nat. Commun., 10, 1–11,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10442-3, 2019.
Li, Y., Ye, W., Wang, M., and Yan, X.: Climate change and drought: A risk
assessment of crop-yield impacts, Clim. Res., 39, 31–46, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00797, 2009.
Lupu, A. B., Ionescu, F. C., and Borza, I.: The phenomenon of drought and it's effects within Romania, Res. J. Agricult. Sci., 42, 102–109, 2010.
Mateescu, E., Smarandache, M., Jeler, N., and Apostol, V.: Drought conditions
and management strategies in Romania. Initiative on “Capacity Development
to support National Drought Management Policy” (WMO, UNCCD, FAO and
UNW-DPC) – Country Report, available at:
http://www.droughtmanagement.info/literature/UNW-DPC_NDMP_Country_Report_Romania_2013.pdf
(last access: 17 June 2019), 2013.
Meza, I., Hagenlocher, M., Naumann, G., Vogt, J., and Frischen, J.: Drought
vulnerability indicators for global-scale drought risk assessments, EUR 29824 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, JRC117546, ISBN 978-92-76-09210-0, https://doi.org/10.2760/73844, 2019.
Meza, I., Siebert, S., Döll, P., Kusche, J., Herbert, C., Rezaei, E. E., Nouri, H., Gerdener, H., Popat, E., Frischen, J. Naumann, G., Vogt, J., Hagenlocher, M.: Global drought risk for agricultural systems – Data and
Metadata, available at: https://grow-globedrought.net/data/global-scale-drought-risk-assessment-for-agricultural-systems/,
last access: 27 February 2020.
McCabe, G. J. and Wolock, D. M.: Variability and trends in global drought,
Earth Space Sci., 2, 223–228, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015EA000100, 2015.
Müller Schmied, H., Eisner, S., Franz, D., Wattenbach, M., Portmann, F. T., Flörke, M., and Döll, P.: Sensitivity of simulated global-scale
freshwater fluxes and storages to input data, hydrological model structure,
human water use and calibration, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3511–3538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3511-2014, 2014.
Naumann, G., Barbosa, P., Garrote, L., Iglesias, A., and Vogt, J.: Exploring
drought vulnerability in Africa: an indicator based analysis to be used in
early warning systems, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1591–1604, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1591-2014, 2014.
Naumann, G., Carrao, H., and Barbosa, P.: Indicators of social vulnerability
to drought, in: chap. 6 in Wiley Book on Drought: Science and Policy, Part II: Vulnerability, risk and policy, Wiley-Blackwell, Chichester, WS, 2018.
OECD: Handbook on Constructing Composite Indicators: Methodology and
UserGuide, available at: https://www.oecd.org/std/42495745.pdf (last
access: 12 September 2017), 2008.
Peduzzi, P., Dao, H., Herold, C., and Mouton, F.: Assessing global exposure
and vulnerability towards natural hazards: the Disaster Risk Index, Nat.
Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 1149–1159, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-1149-2009, 2009.
Peduzzi, P., Chatenoux, B., Dao, H., De Bono, A., Herold, C., Kossin, J., Mouton, F., and Nordbeck, O.: Global trends in tropical cyclone risk, Nat.
Clim. Change, 2, 289–294, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1410, 2012.
Peng, C.-Y. J., Harwell, M., Liou, S.-M., and Ehman, L. H.: Advances in missing data methods and implications for educational research, in: Real data analysis, edited by: Sawilowsky, S., Information Age, Greenwich, CT, 31–37,
2006.
Portmann, F. T., Siebert, S., and Döll, P.: MIRCA2000-Global monthly
irrigated and rain-fed crop areas around the year 2000: A new high-resolution data set for agricultural and hydrological modeling, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 24, Gb1011, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008gb003435, 2010.
Rojas, O.: Agricultural extreme drought assessment at global level using the FAO-Agricultural Stress Index System (ASIS), Weather Clim. Extr., 100184, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2018.09.001, 2018.
Roth, P. L., Switzer III, F. S., and Switzer, D. M.: Missing data in multiple item scales: A Monte Carlo analysis of missing data techniques, Organiz. Res. Meth., 2, 211–232, https://doi.org/10.1177/109442819923001, 1999.
SDG indicators: Global SDG Indicators Database (database): Proportion of population below international poverty line (%), available at: https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/indicators/database/ (last access: 9 April 2019), 2015–2017.
Sheffield, J. and Wood, E. F.: Projected changes in drought occurrence under
future global warming 16 from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations, Clim. Dynam., 31, 79–105, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0340-z, 2008.
Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F., and Roderick, M. L.: Little change in global drought over the past 60 years, Nature, 491, 435–440, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11575, 2012.
Siebert, S. and Döll, P.: Quantifying blue and green virtual water contents in global crop production as well as potential production losses
without irrigation, J. Hydrol., 384, 198–217, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.07.031, 2010.
Silva, V., Amo-Oduro, D., Calderon, A., Dabbeek, J., Despotaki, V., Martins,
L., Rao, A., Simionato, M., Viganò, D., Yepes, C., Acevedo, A., Horspool, N., Crowley, H., Jaiswal, K., Journeay, M., and Pittore, M.: Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Seismic Risk Map (version 2018.1), https://doi.org/10.13117/GEM-GLOBAL-SEISMIC-RISK-MAP-2018, 2018.
Spinoni, J., Naumann, G., Carrão, H., Barbosa, P., and Vogt, J.: World
drought frequency, duration, and severity for 1951–2010, Int. J. Climatol., 34, 2792–2804, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3875, 2013.
Spinoni, J., Naumann, G., and Vogt, J. V.: Pan-European seasonal trends and recent changes of drought frequency and severity, Global Planet. Change, 148, 113–130, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.11.013, 2017.
Spinoni, J. Barbosa, P., De Jager, A., McCormick, N., Naumann, G., Vogt, J. V., Magni, D., Masante, D., and Mazzeschi, M.: A new global database of
meteorological drought events from 1951 to 2016, J. Hydrol.: Reg. Stud., 22, 2793–2804, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.100593, 2019a.
Spinoni, J., Barbosa, P., Bucchignani, E., Cassano, J., Cavazos, T., Christensen, J. H., Christensen, O. B., Coppola, E., Evans, J., Geyer, B.,
Giorgi, F., Hadjinicolaou, P., Jacob, D., Katzfey, J., Koenigk, T., Laprise,
R., Lennard, C. H., Levent Kurnaz, M., Li, D., Llopart, M., McCormick, N.,
Naumann, G., Nikulin, G., Ozturk, T., Panitz, H.-J., Porfirio da Rocha, R.,
Rockel, B., Solman, S. A., Syktus, J., Tangang, F., Teichmann, C., Vautard,
R., Vogt, J. V., Winger, K., Zittis, G., and Dosio, A.: Future global
meteorological drought hotspots. A study based on CORDEX data, J. Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0084.1, in press, 2019b.
Tallaksen, L. M. and Van Lanen, H. A. (Eds.): Hydrological drought: processes and estimation methods for streamflow and groundwater, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 2004.
Transparency International: Corruption perceptions index 2017, available at: https://www.transparency.org/news/feature/corruption_perceptions_index_2017#table (last access: 3 May 2019), 2017.
Trenberth, K. E., Dai, A., van der Schrier, G. , Jones, P. D., Barichivich, J., Briffa, K. R., and Sheffield, J.: Global warming and changes in drought,
Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 17–22, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2067, 2013.
UNDP: Human Development Reports: Gender Inequality Index, available at: http://hdr.undp.org/en/composite/GII (last access: 15 April 2019), 2018.
UNDRR: Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva,
Switzerland, available at: https://gar.unisdr.org, last access: 17 June 2019.
Van Lanen, H. A. J., Vogt, J. V., Andreu, J., Carrão, H., De Stefano, L.,
Dutra, E., Feyen, L., Forzieri, G., Hayes, M., Iglesias, A., Lavaysse, C.,
Naumann, G., Pulwarty, R., Spinoni, J., Stahl, K., Stefanski, R., Stilianakis, N., Svoboda, M., and Tallaksen, L. M.: Climatological risk:
droughts, in: Science for disaster risk management (2017). Knowing
better and losing less, chap. 3.9, EUR 28034 EN, edited by: Poljanšek, K., Marín Ferrer, M., De Groeve, T., and Clark, I., Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, https://doi.org/10.2788/688605, 2017.
Van Loon, A. F., Gleeson, T., Clark, J., Van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Stahl, K.,
Hannaford, J., Di Baldassarre, G., Teuling, A. J., Tallaksen, L. M., Uijlenhoet, R., Hannah, D. M., Sheffield, J., Svoboda, M., Verbeiren, B.,
Wagener, T., Rangecroft, S., Wanders, N., and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: Drought in
the Anthropocene, Nat. Geosci., 9, 89–91, 2016.
Vogt, J. V., Naumann, G., Masante, D., Spinoni, J., Cammalleri, C., Erian, W., Pischke, F., Pulwarty, R., and Barbosa, P.: Drought Risk Assessment. A
conceptual Framework, EUR 29464 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, JRC113937, https://doi.org/10.2760/057223, 2018.
Ward, P. J., Jongman, B., Sperna Weiland, F., Bouwman, A., van Beek, R.,
Bierkens, M. F. P., Ligtvoet, W., and Winsemius, H. C.: Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 4, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044019, 2013.
Ward, P. J., Jongman, B., Kummu, M., Dettinger, M. D., Sperna Weiland, F. C.,
and Winsemius, H. C.: Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on
flood risk around the world, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 15659–15664, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1409822111, 2014.
Weedon, G. P., Balsamo, G., Bellouin, N., Gomes, S., Best, M. J., and Viterbo, P.: The WFDEI meteorological forcing data set: WATCH forcing data
methodology applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data, Water Resour. Res., 50, 7505–7514, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015638, 2014.
Welle, T. and Birkmann, J.: The World Risk Index – An Approach to Assess Risk and Vulnerability on a Global Scale, J. Extr. Events, 2, 155003, https://doi.org/10.1142/S2345737615500025, 2015.
WHO: Global Health Observatory data repository: Healthy life expectancy (HALE), available at: http://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main.HALEXv (last access: 15 April 2019), 2014.
WHO: Global Health Observatory data repository: Basic and safely managed sanitation services, available at: http://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main.WSHSANITATIONv?lang=en, (last access: 15 April 2019), 2015.
World Bank: World Development Indicators: Age dependency ratio (% of working-age population), available at: https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&series=SP.POP.DPND&country= (last access: 11 April 2019), 2011–2016.
World Bank: World Development Indicators: Rural population, available at: https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&series=SP.RUR.TOTL&country= (last access: 10 April 2019), 2011–2017.
World Bank: World Development Indicators: Improved water source (% of population with access), available at: https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators (last access: 27 March 2019), 2015a.
World Bank: World Development Indicators: Electricity production from hydroelectric sources (% of total), available at: https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&series=EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS&country= (last access: 25 April 2019), 2015b.
World Bank: World Development Indicators: Fertilizer consumption (kilograms per hectare of arable land), available at: https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&series=AG.CON.FERT.ZS&country= (last access: 20 April 2019), 2015c.
World Bank: World Development Indicators: Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above), available at: https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&series=SE.ADT.LITR.ZS&country= (last access: 8 April 2019), 2015d.
World Bank: World Development Indicators: Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population), available at: https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&series=SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS&country= (last access: 10 April 2019), 2015e.
World Bank: World Development Indicators: Terrestrial and marine protected areas (% of total territorial area), available at: https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&series=ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS&country= (last access: 14 April 2019), 2016–2017.
World Bank: TCdata360: Crime and Theft, available at: https://tcdata360.worldbank.org/indicators/mpf.cri.the?country=BRA&indicator=3284&viz=line_chart&years=2008,2017#table-link (last access: 7 April 2019), 2017a.
World Bank: World Development Indicators: GINI index (World Bank estimate), available at: https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&series=SI.POV.GINI&country= (last access: 9 April 2019), 2017b.
Yuan, X. and Wood, E. F.: Multimodel seasonal forecasting of global drought
onset, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4900–4905, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50949, 2013.
Zoljoodi, M. and Didevarasl, A.: Evaluation of Spatial-Temporal Variability of Drought Events in Iran Using Palmer Drought Severity Index and Its Principal Factors (through 1951–2005), Atmos. Clim. Sci., 3, 193–207, https://doi.org/10.4236/acs.2013.32021, 2013.
Short summary
The paper presents, for the first time, a global-scale drought risk assessment for both irrigated and rainfed agricultural systems while considering drought hazard indicators, exposure and expert-weighted vulnerability indicators. We identify global patterns of drought risk and, by disaggregating risk into its underlying components and factors, provide entry points for risk reduction.
The paper presents, for the first time, a global-scale drought risk assessment for both...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint