A novel approach to assessing nuisance risk from  seismicity induced by UK shale gas development,  with implications for future policy design

Cremen, Gemma; Werner, Maximilian J.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2701-2020

Articles | Volume 20, issue 10

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2701-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2701-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 20, issue 10

Research article

|

12 Oct 2020

Research article |

| 12 Oct 2020

A novel approach to assessing nuisance risk from seismicity induced by UK shale gas development, with implications for future policy design

Gemma Cremen and Maximilian J. Werner

Data sets

Preston New Road – PNR 1Z – Hydraulic Fracturing Operations Data UK Oil & Gas Authority https://www.ogauthority.co.uk/exploration-production/onshore/onshore-reports-and-data/preston-new-road-pnr-1z-hydraulic-fracturing-operations-data/

BGS earthquake database search British Geological Survey http://www.earthquakes.bgs.ac.uk/earthquakes/dataSearch.html

BGS ftp site British Geological Survey ftp://seiswav.bgs.ac.uk/

Short summary

We develop a framework that links the volume of hydraulic fracturing fluid injected during shale gas exploration with the likelihood that resulting seismicity causes a nuisance to nearby populations. We apply the framework to a shale gas site in England and find that the potential of a given injected volume to produce nuisance ground motions is especially sensitive to assumptions about the amount of seismic energy released during operations. The work can inform policy on shale gas exploration.