Articles | Volume 20, issue 8
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2091–2117, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2091-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue: Advances in extreme value analysis and application to natural...
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2091–2117, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2091-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
06 Aug 2020
Research article
| 06 Aug 2020
Evaluating the efficacy of bivariate extreme modelling approaches for multi-hazard scenarios
Aloïs Tilloy et al.
Related authors
Aloïs Tilloy, Bruce D. Malamud, and Amélie Joly-Laugel
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 993–1020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-993-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-993-2022, 2022
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Compound hazards occur when two different natural hazards impact the same time period and spatial area. This article presents a methodology for the spatiotemporal identification of compound hazards (SI–CH). The methodology is applied to compound precipitation and wind extremes in Great Britain for the period 1979–2019. The study finds that the SI–CH approach can accurately identify single and compound hazard events and represent their spatial and temporal properties.
Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Amy Donovan, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2771–2790, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, 2022
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Here we present survey responses of 350 natural hazard community members to key challenges in natural hazards research and step changes to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Challenges identified range from technical (e.g. model development, early warning) to governance (e.g. co-production with community members). Step changes needed are equally broad; however, the majority of answers showed a need for wider stakeholder engagement, increased risk management and interdisciplinary work.
Aloïs Tilloy, Bruce D. Malamud, and Amélie Joly-Laugel
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 993–1020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-993-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-993-2022, 2022
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Compound hazards occur when two different natural hazards impact the same time period and spatial area. This article presents a methodology for the spatiotemporal identification of compound hazards (SI–CH). The methodology is applied to compound precipitation and wind extremes in Great Britain for the period 1979–2019. The study finds that the SI–CH approach can accurately identify single and compound hazard events and represent their spatial and temporal properties.
Faith E. Taylor, Paolo Tarolli, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2585–2590, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2585-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2585-2020, 2020
Joel C. Gill, Bruce D. Malamud, Edy Manolo Barillas, and Alex Guerra Noriega
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 149–180, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-149-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-149-2020, 2020
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This paper describes a replicable approach for characterising interactions between natural hazards. Guatemala is exposed to multiple natural hazards, which do not always occur independently. There can be interactions between natural hazards. For example, one hazard may trigger multiple secondary hazards, which can subsequently trigger further hazards. Here we use diverse evidence of such interactions to construct matrices of hazard interactions in Guatemala at national and sub-national scales.
Alistair Hendry, Ivan D. Haigh, Robert J. Nicholls, Hugo Winter, Robert Neal, Thomas Wahl, Amélie Joly-Laugel, and Stephen E. Darby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3117–3139, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3117-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3117-2019, 2019
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Flooding can arise from multiple sources, including waves, extreme sea levels, rivers, and severe rainfall. When two or more sources combine, the consequences can be greatly multiplied. We find the potential for the joint occurrence of extreme sea levels and river discharge to be greater on the western coast of the UK compared to the eastern coast. This is due to the weather conditions generating each flood source around the UK. These results will help increase our flood forecasting ability.
David Cross, Christian Onof, Hugo Winter, and Pietro Bernardara
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 727–756, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-727-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-727-2018, 2018
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Extreme rainfall is one of the most significant natural hazards. However, estimating very large events is highly uncertain. We present a new approach to construct intense rainfall using the structure of rainfall generation in clouds. The method is particularly effective at estimating short-duration extremes, which can be the most damaging. This is expected to have immediate impact for the estimation of very rare downpours, with the potential to improve climate resilience and hazard preparedness.
Annette Witt, Bruce D. Malamud, Clara Mangili, and Achim Brauer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5547–5581, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5547-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5547-2017, 2017
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Here we present a unique 9.5 m palaeo-lacustrine record of 771 palaeofloods which occurred over a period of 10 000 years in the Piànico–Sèllere basin (southern Alps) during an interglacial period in the Pleistocene (sometime between 400 000 and 800 000 years ago). We analyse the palaeoflood series correlation, clustering, and cyclicity properties, finding a long-range cyclicity with a period of about 2030 years superimposed onto a fractional noise.
Bruce D. Malamud, Donald L. Turcotte, and Harold E. Brooks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2823–2834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2823-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2823-2016, 2016
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We introduce a novel method for the spatial–temporal cluster analysis of severe tornado touchdowns that are part of tornado outbreaks. Tornado outbreaks, groups of tornadoes occurring close to each other in time and space, constitute a severe hazard that has few quantitative measures. Our new approach, which we illustrate using three USA severe tornado outbreaks and models, differentiates between types of tornado outbreaks and, within outbreaks, identifies clusters in both time and space.
Joel C. Gill and Bruce D. Malamud
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 659–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-659-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-659-2016, 2016
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Understanding interactions between hazards and other processes can help us to better understand the complex environment in which disasters occur. This enhanced understanding may help us to better manage hazards and reduce the risk of disasters occurring. Interactions (e.g. one hazard triggering another hazard) are noted between (i) natural hazards, such as earthquakes; (ii) human activity, such as groundwater abstraction; and (iii) technological hazards/disasters, such as building collapse.
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Interactions between precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil-moisture-based indices to characterize drought with high-resolution remote sensing and land-surface model data
Rare flood scenarios for a rapidly growing high-mountain city: Pokhara, Nepal
Brief communication: Impact forecasting could substantially improve the emergency management of deadly floods: case study July 2021 floods in Germany
Brief communication: Western Europe flood in 2021 – mapping agriculture flood exposure from synthetic aperture radar (SAR)
Comprehensive space–time hydrometeorological simulations for estimating very rare floods at multiple sites in a large river basin
A new index to quantify the extremeness of precipitation across scales
Effectiveness of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 for flood detection assessment in Europe
Assessing flood hazard changes using climate model forcing
Characterizing multivariate coastal flooding events in a semi-arid region: the implications of copula choice, sampling, and infrastructure
Different drought types and the spatial variability in their hazard, impact, and propagation characteristics
More than heavy rain turning into fast-flowing water – a landscape perspective on the 2021 Eifel floods
Integrated drought risk assessment to support adaptive policymaking in the Netherlands
INSYDE-BE: adaptation of the INSYDE model to the Walloon region (Belgium)
Assessing flooding impact to riverine bridges: an integrated analysis
Warming of 0.5 °C may cause double the economic loss and increase the population affected by floods in China
First application of the Integrated Karst Aquifer Vulnerability (IKAV) method – potential and actual vulnerability in Yucatán, Mexico
Brief communication: Seismological analysis of flood dynamics and hydrologically triggered earthquake swarms associated with Storm Alex
System vulnerability to flood events and risk assessment of railway systems based on national and river basin scales in China
Machine-learning blends of geomorphic descriptors: value and limitations for flood hazard assessment across large floodplains
A performance-based approach to quantify atmospheric river flood risk
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Multiscale flood risk assessment under climate change: the case of the Miño River in the city of Ourense, Spain
Estimating the likelihood of roadway pluvial flood based on crowdsourced traffic data and depression-based DEM analysis
Extreme-coastal-water-level estimation and projection: a comparison of statistical methods
Spatiotemporal evolution and meteorological triggering conditions of hydrological drought in the Hun River basin, NE China
The Cambodian Mekong floodplain under future development plans and climate change
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Compound flood modeling framework for surface–subsurface water interactions
Assessing tropical cyclone compound flood risk using hydrodynamic modelling: a case study in Haikou City, China
An approach to identify the best climate models for the assessment of climate change impacts on meteorological and hydrological droughts
Flash flood warnings in context: combining local knowledge and large-scale hydro-meteorological patterns
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Modeling of a compound flood induced by the levee breach at Qianbujing Creek, Shanghai, during Typhoon Fitow
Improving flood damage assessments in data-scarce areas by retrieval of building characteristics through UAV image segmentation and machine learning – a case study of the 2019 floods in southern Malawi
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Jaime Gaona, Pere Quintana-Seguí, María José Escorihuela, Aaron Boone, and María Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3461–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3461-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3461-2022, 2022
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Droughts represent a particularly complex natural hazard and require explorations of their multiple causes. Part of the complexity has roots in the interaction between the continuous changes in and deviation from normal conditions of the atmosphere and the land surface. The exchange between the atmospheric and surface conditions defines feedback towards dry or wet conditions. In semi-arid environments, energy seems to exceed water in its impact over the evolution of conditions, favoring drought.
Melanie Fischer, Jana Brettin, Sigrid Roessner, Ariane Walz, Monique Fort, and Oliver Korup
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3105–3123, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3105-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3105-2022, 2022
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Nepal’s second-largest city has been rapidly growing since the 1970s, although its valley has been affected by rare, catastrophic floods in recent and historic times. We analyse potential impacts of such floods on urban areas and infrastructure by modelling 10 physically plausible flood scenarios along Pokhara’s main river. We find that hydraulic effects would largely affect a number of squatter settlements, which have expanded rapidly towards the river by a factor of up to 20 since 2008.
Heiko Apel, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3005–3014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022, 2022
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The paper presents a fast 2D hydraulic simulation model for flood propagation that enables operational forecasts of spatially distributed inundation depths, flood extent, flow velocities, and other flood impacts. The detailed spatial forecast of floods and flood impacts is a large step forward from the currently operational forecasts of discharges at selected gauges, thus enabling a more targeted flood management and early warning.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2921–2927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2921-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2921-2022, 2022
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This study depicts the flood-affected areas in western Europe in July 2021 and particularly the agriculture land that was under flood inundation. The results indicate that the total inundated area over western Europe is about 1920 km2, of which 1320 km2 is in France. Around 64 % of the inundated area is agricultural land. We expect that the agricultural productivity in western Europe will have been severely impacted.
Daniel Viviroli, Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner, Guillaume Evin, Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Jérémy Chardon, Anne-Catherine Favre, Benoit Hingray, Gilles Nicolet, Damien Raynaud, Jan Seibert, Rolf Weingartner, and Calvin Whealton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2891–2920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022, 2022
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Estimating the magnitude of rare to very rare floods is a challenging task due to a lack of sufficiently long observations. The challenge is even greater in large river basins, where precipitation patterns and amounts differ considerably between individual events and floods from different parts of the basin coincide. We show that a hydrometeorological model chain can provide plausible estimates in this setting and can thus inform flood risk and safety assessments for critical infrastructure.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2791–2805, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2791-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2791-2022, 2022
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To better understand how the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events (HPEs) will change with changing climate and to adapt disaster risk management accordingly, we have to quantify the extremeness of HPEs in a reliable way. We introduce the xWEI (cross-scale WEI) and show that this index can reveal important characteristics of HPEs that would otherwise remain hidden. We conclude that the xWEI could be a valuable instrument in both disaster risk management and research.
Angelica Tarpanelli, Alessandro C. Mondini, and Stefania Camici
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2473–2489, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2473-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2473-2022, 2022
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We analysed 10 years of river discharge data from almost 2000 sites in Europe, and we extracted flood events, as proxies of flood inundations, based on the overpasses of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellites to derive the percentage of potential inundation events that they were able to observe. Results show that on average 58 % of flood events are potentially observable by Sentinel-1 and only 28 % by Sentinel-2 due to the obstacle of cloud coverage.
David P. Callaghan and Michael G. Hughes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2459–2472, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2459-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2459-2022, 2022
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A new method was developed to estimate changes in flood hazard under climate change. We use climate projections covering New South Wales, Australia, with two emission paths of business as usual and one with reduced emissions. We apply our method to the lower floodplain of the Gwydir Valley with changes in flood hazard provided over the next 90 years compared with the previous 50 years. We find that changes in flood hazard decrease over time within the Gwydir Valley floodplain.
Joseph T. D. Lucey and Timu W. Gallien
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2145–2167, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2145-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2145-2022, 2022
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Coastal flooding can result from multiple flood drivers (e.g., tides, waves, river flows, rainfall) occurring at the same time. This study characterizes flooding events caused by high marine water levels and rain. Results show that wet-season coinciding sampling may better describe extreme flooding events in a dry, tidally dominated region. A joint-probability-based function is then used to estimate sea wall impacts on urban coastal flooding.
Erik Tijdeman, Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lucas Menzel, and Kerstin Stahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2099–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2099-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2099-2022, 2022
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We identified different drought types with typical hazard and impact characteristics. The summer drought type with compounding heat was most impactful. Regional drought propagation of this drought type exhibited typical characteristics that can guide drought management. However, we also found a large spatial variability that caused distinct differences among propagating drought signals. Accordingly, local multivariate drought information was needed to explain the full range of drought impacts.
Michael Dietze, Rainer Bell, Ugur Ozturk, Kristen L. Cook, Christoff Andermann, Alexander R. Beer, Bodo Damm, Ana Lucia, Felix S. Fauer, Katrin M. Nissen, Tobias Sieg, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1845–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, 2022
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The flood that hit Europe in July 2021, specifically the Eifel, Germany, was more than a lot of fast-flowing water. The heavy rain that fell during the 3 d before also caused the slope to fail, recruited tree trunks that clogged bridges, and routed debris across the landscape. Especially in the upper parts of the catchments the flood was able to gain momentum. Here, we discuss how different landscape elements interacted and highlight the challenges of holistic future flood anticipation.
Marjolein J. P. Mens, Gigi van Rhee, Femke Schasfoort, and Neeltje Kielen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1763–1776, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1763-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1763-2022, 2022
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Many countries have to prepare for droughts by proposing policy actions to increase water supply, reduce water demand, or limit the societal impact. Societal cost–benefit analysis is required to support decision-making for a range of future scenarios, accounting for climate change and socio-economic developments. This paper presents a framework to assess drought policy actions based on quantification of drought risk and exemplifies it for the Netherlands’ drought risk management strategy.
Anna Rita Scorzini, Benjamin Dewals, Daniela Rodriguez Castro, Pierre Archambeau, and Daniela Molinari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1743–1761, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, 2022
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This study presents a replicable procedure for the adaptation of synthetic, multi-variable flood damage models among countries that may have different hazard and vulnerability features. The procedure is exemplified here for the case of adaptation to the Belgian context of a flood damage model, INSYDE, for the residential sector, originally developed for Italy. The study describes necessary changes in model assumptions and input parameters to properly represent the new context of implementation.
Maria Pregnolato, Andrew O. Winter, Dakota Mascarenas, Andrew D. Sen, Paul Bates, and Michael R. Motley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1559–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1559-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1559-2022, 2022
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The interaction of flow, structure and network is complex, and yet to be fully understood. This study aims to establish rigorous practices of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) for modelling hydrodynamic forces on inundated bridges, and understanding the consequences of such impacts on the surrounding network. The objectives of this study are to model hydrodynamic forces as the demand on the bridge structure, to advance a structural reliability and network-level analysis.
Lulu Liu, Jiangbo Gao, and Shaohong Wu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1577–1590, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1577-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1577-2022, 2022
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The impact of extreme events is increasing with global warming. Based on future scenario data and an improved quantitative assessment model of natural-disaster risk, this study analyses the spatial and temporal patterns of floods in China at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming, quantitatively assesses the socioeconomic risks posed by floods, and determines the integrated risk levels. Global warming of 1.5 °C can effectively reduce the population affected and the economic risks of floods.
Miguel Moreno-Gómez, Carolina Martínez-Salvador, Rudolf Liedl, Catalin Stefan, and Julia Pacheco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1591–1608, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1591-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1591-2022, 2022
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Current vulnerability methods, as tools to protect groundwater resources from pollution, present some limitations and drawbacks: the roles of population and economic activities are not considered by such methods. The methodology presented in this work combines natural characteristics and human-driven conditions of a given region to improve the process of groundwater vulnerability analysis. Results indicate the reliability of this alternative method to improve groundwater protection strategies.
Małgorzata Chmiel, Maxime Godano, Marco Piantini, Pierre Brigode, Florent Gimbert, Maarten Bakker, Françoise Courboulex, Jean-Paul Ampuero, Diane Rivet, Anthony Sladen, David Ambrois, and Margot Chapuis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1541–1558, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1541-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1541-2022, 2022
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On 2 October 2020, the French Maritime Alps were struck by an extreme rainfall event caused by Storm Alex. Here, we show that seismic data provide the timing and velocity of the propagation of flash-flood waves along the Vésubie River. We also detect 114 small local earthquakes triggered by the rainwater weight and/or its infiltration into the ground. This study paves the way for future works that can reveal further details of the impact of Storm Alex on the Earth’s surface and subsurface.
Weihua Zhu, Kai Liu, Ming Wang, Philip J. Ward, and Elco E. Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1519–1540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1519-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1519-2022, 2022
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We present a simulation framework to analyse the system vulnerability and risk of the Chinese railway system to floods. To do so, we develop a method for generating flood events at both the national and river basin scale. Results show flood system vulnerability and risk of the railway system are spatially heterogeneous. The event-based approach shows how we can identify critical hotspots, taking the first steps in developing climate-resilient infrastructure.
Andrea Magnini, Michele Lombardi, Simone Persiano, Antonio Tirri, Francesco Lo Conti, and Attilio Castellarin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1469–1486, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1469-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1469-2022, 2022
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We retrieve descriptors of the terrain morphology from a digital elevation model of a 105 km2 study area and blend them through decision tree models to map flood susceptibility and expected water depth. We investigate this approach with particular attention to (a) the comparison with a selected single-descriptor approach, (b) the goodness of decision trees, and (c) the performance of these models when applied to data-scarce regions. We find promising pathways for future research.
Corinne Bowers, Katherine A. Serafin, and Jack Baker
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1371–1393, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1371-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1371-2022, 2022
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Atmospheric rivers (ARs) cause significant flooding on the US west coast. We present a new Performance-based Atmospheric River Risk Analysis (PARRA) framework that connects models of atmospheric forcings, hydrologic impacts, and economic consequences to better estimate losses from AR-induced river flooding. We apply the PARRA framework to a case study in Sonoma County, CA, USA, and show that the framework can quantify the potential benefit of flood mitigation actions such as home elevation.
Yves Tramblay and Pere Quintana Seguí
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1325–1334, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1325-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1325-2022, 2022
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Monitoring soil moisture is important during droughts, but very few measurements are available. Consequently, land-surface models are essential tools for reproducing soil moisture dynamics. In this study, a hybrid approach allowed for regionalizing soil water content using a machine learning method. This approach proved to be efficient, compared to the use of soil property maps, to run a simple soil moisture accounting model, and therefore it can be applied in various regions.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Orlando García-Feal, José González-Cao, Maite deCastro, and Moncho Gómez-Gesteira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-80, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-80, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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A multiscale analysis, where the historical and future precipitation data from the CORDEX project were used as input in a hydrological model (HEC-HMS) which, in turn, feeds a 2D hydraulic model (Iber+), was applied to the case of the Miño-Sil basin (NW Spain), specifically to Ourense city, in order to analyze future changes in flood hazard. Detailed flood maps indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of future floods, implying an increase in flood hazard in important areas of the city.
Arefeh Safaei-Moghadam, David Tarboton, and Barbara Minsker
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-77, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Climate change, urbanization, and aging infrastructure contribute to flooding on roadways. This study evaluates the potential for flood reports collected from Waze–a community-based navigation app–to predict these events. Waze reports correlate primarily with low-lying depressions on roads. Therefore, we developed two data-driven models to determine whether roadways will flood. Analysis showed that in the City of Dallas, drainage area and imperviousness are the most significant contributors.
Maria Francesca Caruso and Marco Marani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1109–1128, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1109-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1109-2022, 2022
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We comparatively evaluate the predictive performance of traditional and new approaches to estimate the probability distributions of extreme coastal water levels. The metastatistical approach maximizes the use of observational information and provides reliable estimates of high quantiles with respect to traditional methods. Leveraging the increased estimation accuracy afforded by this approach, we investigate future changes in the frequency of extreme total water levels.
Shupeng Yue, Xiaodan Sheng, and Fengtian Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 995–1014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-995-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-995-2022, 2022
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To develop drought assessment and early warning systems, it is necessary to explore the characteristics of drought and its propagation process. In this article, a generalized and efficient drought research framework is studied and verified. It includes the evaluation of the spatiotemporal evolution, the construction of the return period calculation model, and the quantitative analysis of the meteorological trigger conditions of drought based on an improved Bayesian network model.
Alexander J. Horton, Nguyen V. K. Triet, Long P. Hoang, Sokchhay Heng, Panha Hok, Sarit Chung, Jorma Koponen, and Matti Kummu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 967–983, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-967-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-967-2022, 2022
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We studied the cumulative impact of future development and climate change scenarios on discharge and floods in the Cambodian Mekong floodplain. We found that hydropower impacts dominate, acting in opposition to climate change impacts to drastically increase dry season flows and reduce wet season flows even when considering the higher RCP8.5 level. The consequent reduction in flood extent and duration may reduce regional flood risk but may also have negative impacts on floodplain productivity.
Eva Boisson, Bruno Wilhelm, Emmanuel Garnier, Alain Mélo, Sandrine Anquetin, and Isabelle Ruin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 831–847, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-831-2022, 2022
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We present the database of Historical Impacts of Floods in the Arve Valley (HIFAVa). It reports flood occurrences and impacts (1850–2015) in a French Alpine catchment. Our results show an increasing occurrence of impacts from 1920 onwards, which is more likely related to indirect source effects and/or increasing exposure rather than hydrological changes. The analysis reveals that small mountain streams caused more impacts (67 %) than the main river.
Francisco Peña, Fernando Nardi, Assefa Melesse, Jayantha Obeysekera, Fabio Castelli, René M. Price, Todd Crowl, and Noemi Gonzalez-Ramirez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 775–793, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-775-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-775-2022, 2022
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Groundwater-induced flooding, a rare phenomenon that is increasing in low-elevation coastal cities due to higher water tables, is often neglected in flood risk mapping due to its sporadic frequency and considerably lower severity with respect to other flood hazards. A loosely coupled flood model is used to simulate the interplay between surface and subsurface flooding mechanisms simultaneously. This work opens new horizons on the development of compound flood models from a holistic perspective.
Qing Liu, Hanqing Xu, and Jun Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 665–675, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-665-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-665-2022, 2022
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The coastal area is a major floodplain in compound flood events in coastal cities, primarily due to storm tide, with the inundation severity positively correlated with the height of the storm tide. Simply accumulating every single-driven flood hazard (rainstorm inundation and storm tide flooding) to define the compound flood hazard may cause underestimation. The assessment of tropical cyclone compound flood risk can provide vital insight for research on coastal flooding prevention.
Antonio-Juan Collados-Lara, Juan-de-Dios Gómez-Gómez, David Pulido-Velazquez, and Eulogio Pardo-Igúzquiza
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 599–616, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-599-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-599-2022, 2022
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This work studies the benefit of using more reliable local climate scenarios to analyse hydrological impacts. It has been applied in the Cenajo basin (south-eastern Spain), where we showed that the best approximations of the historical meteorology also provide the best approximations of the hydrology. The two selected climate models predict worrying changes in precipitation, temperature, streamflows and meteorological and hydrological droughts for the period 2071–2100 under the RCP8.5.
Agathe Bucherie, Micha Werner, Marc van den Homberg, and Simon Tembo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 461–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-461-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-461-2022, 2022
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Local communities in northern Malawi have well-developed knowledge of the conditions leading to flash floods, spatially and temporally. Scientific analysis of catchment geomorphology and global reanalysis datasets corroborates this local knowledge, underlining the potential of these large-scale scientific datasets. Combining local knowledge with contemporary scientific datasets provides a common understanding of flash flood events, contributing to a more people-centred warning to flash floods.
Karen Gabriels, Patrick Willems, and Jos Van Orshoven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 395–410, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-395-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-395-2022, 2022
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As land use influences hydrological processes (e.g., forests have a high water retention and infiltration capacity), it also impacts floods downstream in the river system. This paper demonstrates an approach quantifying the impact of land use changes on economic flood damages: damages in an initial situation are quantified and compared to damages of simulated floods associated with a land use change scenario. This approach can be used as an explorative tool in sustainable flood risk management.
Tao Liu, Luke A. McGuire, Nina Oakley, and Forest Cannon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 361–376, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-361-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-361-2022, 2022
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A well-constrained rainfall-runoff model forced by radar-derived precipitation is used to define rainfall intensity-duration (ID) thresholds for flash floods. The rainfall ID doubles in 5 years after a severe wildfire in a watershed in southern California, USA. Rainfall ID performs stably well for intense pulses of rainfall over durations of 30-60 minutes that cover at least 15%-25% of the watershed. This finding could help issuing flash flood warnings based on radar-derived precipitation.
Zongjia Zhang, Jun Liang, Yujue Zhou, Zhejun Huang, Jie Jiang, Junguo Liu, and Lili Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-36, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-36, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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An innovative multi-strategy-mode-waterlogging-prediction framework for predicting waterlogging depth is proposed in paper. The framework selects eight regression algorithms for comparison, and tests the prediction accuracy and robustness of the model under different prediction strategies. Finally, the accuracy of predicting water depth after 30 minutes can exceed 86. 1 %. It can provide decision-making reference to issue early warning information and command emergency dispatching in advance.
Annegret H. Thieken, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Heidi Kreibich, and Meike Müller
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 165–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-165-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-165-2022, 2022
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Various floods hit Germany recently. While there was a river flood with some dike breaches in 2013, flooding in 2016 resulted directly from heavy rainfall, causing overflowing drainage systems in urban areas and destructive flash floods in steep catchments. Based on survey data, we analysed how residents coped with these different floods. We observed significantly different flood impacts, warnings, behaviour and recovery, offering entry points for tailored risk communication and support.
Olga Petrucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 71–83, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-71-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-71-2022, 2022
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This systematic review highlights flood mortality factors and the strategies to mitigate them, as obtained from 44 scientific articles published between 2010 and 2020. The findings are the classification of flood mortality drivers in two groups and the identification of strategies to cope with them. Future studies should fill the data gaps regarding flood fatalities in developing countries and information on people who have survived floods, which can be useful in educational campaigns.
Yuhan Yang, Jie Yin, Weiguo Zhang, Yan Zhang, Yi Lu, Yufan Liu, Aoyue Xiao, Yunxiao Wang, and Wenming Song
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3563–3572, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3563-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3563-2021, 2021
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This is the first time the compound flooding process of heavy rain and levee-breach-induced flooding has been modeled. Real-life cases of historical flooding events have been adequately investigated. Our results provide a comprehensive view of the spatial patterns of the flood evolution, the dynamic process, and mechanism of these cases, which can help decision makers to develop effective emergency response plans and flood adaptation strategies.
Lucas Wouters, Anaïs Couasnon, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Hans de Moel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3199–3218, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3199-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3199-2021, 2021
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This research introduces a novel approach to estimate flood damage in Malawi by applying a machine learning model to UAV imagery. We think that the development of such a model is an essential step to enable the swift allocation of resources for recovery by humanitarian decision-makers. By comparing this method (EUR 10 140) to a conventional land-use-based approach (EUR 15 782) for a specific flood event, recommendations are made for future assessments.
Haixia Zhang, Weihua Fang, Hua Zhang, and Lu Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3161–3174, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3161-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3161-2021, 2021
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Taking a single flood disaster in Lishui city as an example, a rapid and refined assessment of economic loss is studied and verified, which can effectively simulate the distribution of loss ratio and loss value. It includes the construction of land use type and value based on data fusion and an expert questionnaire survey, the fitting and calibration of vulnerability curves based on an existing database and disaster loss reporting, and estimation of loss ratio and loss value by spatial analysis.
Doris E. Wendt, John P. Bloomfield, Anne F. Van Loon, Margaret Garcia, Benedikt Heudorfer, Joshua Larsen, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3113–3139, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3113-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3113-2021, 2021
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Managing water demand and supply during droughts is complex, as highly pressured human–water systems can overuse water sources to maintain water supply. We evaluated the impact of drought policies on water resources using a socio-hydrological model. For a range of hydrogeological conditions, we found that integrated drought policies reduce baseflow and groundwater droughts most if extra surface water is imported, reducing the pressure on water resources during droughts.
Sara Lindersson, Luigia Brandimarte, Johanna Mård, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2921–2948, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2921-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2921-2021, 2021
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Riverine flood risk assessments require the identification of areas prone to potential flooding. We find that (topography-based) hydrogeomorphic floodplain maps can in many cases be useful for riverine flood risk assessments, particularly where hydrologic data are scarce. For 26 countries across the global south, we also demonstrate how dataset choice influences the estimated number of people living within flood-prone zones.
Mark V. Bernhofen, Mark A. Trigg, P. Andrew Sleigh, Christopher C. Sampson, and Andrew M. Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2829–2847, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2829-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2829-2021, 2021
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The use of different global datasets to calculate flood exposure can lead to differences in global flood exposure estimates. In this study, we use three global population datasets and a simple measure of a river’s flood susceptibility (based on the terrain alone) to explore how the choice of population data and the size of river represented in global flood models affect global and national flood exposure estimates.
Antonio Francipane, Dario Pumo, Marco Sinagra, Goffredo La Loggia, and Leonardo Valerio Noto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2563–2580, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2563-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2563-2021, 2021
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In the last few years, some cities in the Mediterranean area have witnessed an increase in extreme rainfall events such as urban floods. The study focuses on a particularly intense urban flood that occurred in Palermo on 15 July 2020, which highlighted the need for a shift in the way stormwater in urban settlements is managed. We think that the framework used to study the impacts of the event and some conclusive remarks could be easily transferred to other urban contexts.
Luc Bonnafous and Upmanu Lall
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2277–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2277-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2277-2021, 2021
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Extreme climate events can cause human and economic catastrophe at the global scale. For specific sectors, such as humanitarian aid or insurance, being able to understand how (i.e., with which frequency and intensity) these events can occur simultaneously at different locations or several times in a given amount of time and hit critical assets is all-important to design contingency plans. Here we develop an indicator to study co-occurence in space and time of wet and dry extremes.
Colin Keating, Donghoon Lee, Juan Bazo, and Paul Block
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2215–2231, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2215-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2215-2021, 2021
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Disaster planning has historically underallocated resources for flood preparedness, but evidence supports reduced vulnerability via early actions. We evaluate the ability of multiple season-ahead streamflow prediction models to appropriately trigger early actions for the flood-prone Marañón River and Piura River in Peru. Our findings suggest that locally tailored statistical models may offer improved performance compared to operational physically based global models in low-data environments.
Antonia Longobardi, Ouafik Boulariah, and Paolo Villani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2181–2196, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2181-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2181-2021, 2021
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The current research was aimed at the description of historical drought periods that have characterized a broad area of the Mediterranean Basin and the Campania region, located in southern Italy. Knowledge of the past conditions would increase the awareness of the communities with respect to the frequency and severity of critical conditions which have affected and might further affect the environment in which they live.
Henk-Jan van Alphen, Clemens Strehl, Fabian Vollmer, Eduard Interwies, Anasha Petersen, Stefan Görlitz, Luca Locatelli, Montse Martinez Puentes, Maria Guerrero Hidalga, Elias Giannakis, Teun Spek, Marc Scheibel, Erle Kristvik, Fernanda Rocha, and Emmy Bergsma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2145–2161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2145-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2145-2021, 2021
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This paper presents an approach to selecting and analysing climate change adaptation measures, using a combination of scientific analysis and stakeholder interaction. This approach was applied in six cases across Europe, concerning drought and extreme precipitation. Although the cases vary widely, the approach yielded decision-relevant outcomes for the development of adaptation strategies, regarding socio-economic impacts of measures and potential barriers to implementation.
Robert P. Dziak, Bryan A. Black, Yong Wei, and Susan G. Merle
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1971–1982, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1971-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1971-2021, 2021
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On 26 January 1700 CE, a massive earthquake and tsunami struck the US Pacific Northwest west coast. The tsunami caused severe damage to coastal forests in Washington State. However, evidence of the impact on coastal Oregon trees has been difficult to find. We present some of the first evidence of tree-ring growth changes caused by the 1700 tsunami from an old-growth Douglas-fir stand located in South Beach, Oregon. We also present a tsunami inundation model of the 1700 earthquake.
Tigstu T. Dullo, George K. Darkwah, Sudershan Gangrade, Mario Morales-Hernández, M. Bulbul Sharif, Alfred J. Kalyanapu, Shih-Chieh Kao, Sheikh Ghafoor, and Moetasim Ashfaq
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1739–1757, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1739-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1739-2021, 2021
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We studied the effect of potential future climate change on floods, flood protection, and electricity infrastructure in the Conasauga River watershed in the US using ensemble hydrodynamic modeling. We used a GPU-accelerated Two-dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for Operational Needs (TRITON) hydrodynamic model to simulate floods. Overall, this study demonstrates how a fast hydrodynamic model can enhance flood frequency maps and vulnerability assessment under changing climatic conditions.
Sengphrachanh Phakonkham, So Kazama, and Daisuke Komori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1551–1567, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1551-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1551-2021, 2021
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The main objective of this study was to propose a new approach to integrating hazard maps to detect hazardous areas on a national scale, for which area-limited data are available. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was used as a tool to combine the different hazard maps into an integrated hazard map. The results from integrated hazard maps can identify dangerous areas from both individual and integrated hazards.
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Short summary
Estimating risks induced by interacting natural hazards remains a challenge for practitioners. An approach to tackle this challenge is to use multivariate statistical models. Here we evaluate the efficacy of six models. The models are compared against synthetic data which are comparable to time series of environmental variables. We find which models are more appropriate to estimate relations between hazards in a range of cases. We highlight the benefits of this approach with two examples.
Estimating risks induced by interacting natural hazards remains a challenge for practitioners....
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