Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1609–1616, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1609-2020
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1609–1616, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1609-2020
Brief communication
05 Jun 2020
Brief communication | 05 Jun 2020

Brief communication: Seasonal prediction of salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta

Heiko Apel et al.

Related authors

Brief communication – Impact Forecasting Could Substantially Improve the Emergency Management of Deadly Floods: Case Study July 2021 floods in Germany
Heiko Apel, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-33,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-33, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Climate influences on flood probabilities across Europe
Eva Steirou, Lars Gerlitz, Heiko Apel, Xun Sun, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1305–1322, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1305-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1305-2019, 2019
Short summary
How do changes along the risk chain affect flood risk?
Ayse Duha Metin, Nguyen Viet Dung, Kai Schröter, Björn Guse, Heiko Apel, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3089–3108, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3089-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3089-2018, 2018
Short summary
Towards risk-based flood management in highly productive paddy rice cultivation – concept development and application to the Mekong Delta
Nguyen Van Khanh Triet, Nguyen Viet Dung, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2859–2876, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2859-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2859-2018, 2018
Short summary
Statistical forecast of seasonal discharge in Central Asia using observational records: development of a generic linear modelling tool for operational water resource management
Heiko Apel, Zharkinay Abdykerimova, Marina Agalhanova, Azamat Baimaganbetov, Nadejda Gavrilenko, Lars Gerlitz, Olga Kalashnikova, Katy Unger-Shayesteh, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Abror Gafurov
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2225–2254, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2225-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2225-2018, 2018
Short summary

Related subject area

Hydrological Hazards
Effectiveness of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 for flood detection assessment in Europe
Angelica Tarpanelli, Alessandro C. Mondini, and Stefania Camici
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2473–2489, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2473-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2473-2022, 2022
Short summary
Assessing flood hazard changes using climate model forcing
David P. Callaghan and Michael G. Hughes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2459–2472, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2459-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2459-2022, 2022
Short summary
Characterizing multivariate coastal flooding events in a semi-arid region: the implications of copula choice, sampling, and infrastructure
Joseph T. D. Lucey and Timu W. Gallien
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2145–2167, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2145-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2145-2022, 2022
Short summary
Different drought types and the spatial variability in their hazard, impact, and propagation characteristics
Erik Tijdeman, Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lucas Menzel, and Kerstin Stahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2099–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2099-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2099-2022, 2022
Short summary
More than heavy rain turning into fast-flowing water – a landscape perspective on the 2021 Eifel floods
Michael Dietze, Rainer Bell, Ugur Ozturk, Kristen L. Cook, Christoff Andermann, Alexander R. Beer, Bodo Damm, Ana Lucia, Felix S. Fauer, Katrin M. Nissen, Tobias Sieg, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1845–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, 2022
Short summary

Cited articles

Apel, H., Abdykerimova, Z., Agalhanova, M., Baimaganbetov, A., Gavrilenko, N., Gerlitz, L., Kalashnikova, O., Unger-Shayesteh, K., Vorogushyn, S., and Gafurov, A.: Statistical forecast of seasonal discharge in Central Asia using observational records: development of a generic linear modelling tool for operational water resource management, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2225–2254, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2225-2018, 2018. 
Azad, S. and Rajeevan, M.: Possible shift in the ENSO-Indian monsoon rainfall relationship under future global warming, Scientific Reports, 6, 20145, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep20145, 2016. 
Bamston, A. G., Chelliah, M., and Goldenberg, S. B.: Documentation of a highly ENSO-related sst region in the equatorial pacific: Research note, Atmosphere-Ocean, 35, 367–383, https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.1997.9649597, 1997. 
Burnham, K. P. and Anderson, D. R.: Multimodel Inference: Understanding AIC and BIC in Model Selection, Sociol. Method. Res., 33, 261–304, https://doi.org/10.1177/0049124104268644, 2004. 
Delgado, J. M., Merz, B., and Apel, H.: A climate-flood link for the lower Mekong River, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1533–1541, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1533-2012, 2012. 
Download
Short summary
This study deals with salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta, a pressing issue in the third-largest river delta on Earth. It presents a simple, efficient, and cross-validated seasonal forecast model for salinity intrusion during the dry season based on logistic regression using ENSO34 or standardized streamflow indexes as predictors. The model performs exceptionally well, enabling a reliable forecast of critical salinity threshold exceedance up to 9 months prior to the dry season.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint