Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1609–1616, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1609-2020
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1609–1616, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1609-2020

Brief communication 05 Jun 2020

Brief communication | 05 Jun 2020

Brief communication: Seasonal prediction of salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta

Heiko Apel et al.

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Cited articles

Apel, H., Abdykerimova, Z., Agalhanova, M., Baimaganbetov, A., Gavrilenko, N., Gerlitz, L., Kalashnikova, O., Unger-Shayesteh, K., Vorogushyn, S., and Gafurov, A.: Statistical forecast of seasonal discharge in Central Asia using observational records: development of a generic linear modelling tool for operational water resource management, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2225–2254, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2225-2018, 2018. 
Azad, S. and Rajeevan, M.: Possible shift in the ENSO-Indian monsoon rainfall relationship under future global warming, Scientific Reports, 6, 20145, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep20145, 2016. 
Bamston, A. G., Chelliah, M., and Goldenberg, S. B.: Documentation of a highly ENSO-related sst region in the equatorial pacific: Research note, Atmosphere-Ocean, 35, 367–383, https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.1997.9649597, 1997. 
Burnham, K. P. and Anderson, D. R.: Multimodel Inference: Understanding AIC and BIC in Model Selection, Sociol. Method. Res., 33, 261–304, https://doi.org/10.1177/0049124104268644, 2004. 
Delgado, J. M., Merz, B., and Apel, H.: A climate-flood link for the lower Mekong River, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1533–1541, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1533-2012, 2012. 
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Short summary
This study deals with salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta, a pressing issue in the third-largest river delta on Earth. It presents a simple, efficient, and cross-validated seasonal forecast model for salinity intrusion during the dry season based on logistic regression using ENSO34 or standardized streamflow indexes as predictors. The model performs exceptionally well, enabling a reliable forecast of critical salinity threshold exceedance up to 9 months prior to the dry season.
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