Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1609–1616, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1609-2020
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1609–1616, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1609-2020

Brief communication 05 Jun 2020

Brief communication | 05 Jun 2020

Brief communication: Seasonal prediction of salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta

Heiko Apel et al.

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AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (24 Mar 2020) by Paolo Tarolli
AR by Heiko Apel on behalf of the Authors (01 Apr 2020)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (05 Apr 2020) by Paolo Tarolli
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (20 Apr 2020)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (29 Apr 2020) by Paolo Tarolli
AR by Heiko Apel on behalf of the Authors (30 Apr 2020)  Author's response    Manuscript
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Short summary
This study deals with salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta, a pressing issue in the third-largest river delta on Earth. It presents a simple, efficient, and cross-validated seasonal forecast model for salinity intrusion during the dry season based on logistic regression using ENSO34 or standardized streamflow indexes as predictors. The model performs exceptionally well, enabling a reliable forecast of critical salinity threshold exceedance up to 9 months prior to the dry season.
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