Brief communication: Seasonal prediction of salinity intrusion  in the Mekong Delta

Apel, Heiko; Khiem, Mai; Quan, Nguyen Hong; Toan, To Quang

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1609-2020

Articles | Volume 20, issue 6

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1609-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1609-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 20, issue 6

Brief communication

|

05 Jun 2020

Brief communication |

| 05 Jun 2020

Brief communication: Seasonal prediction of salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta

Heiko Apel, Mai Khiem, Nguyen Hong Quan, and To Quang Toan

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Final revised paper (published on 05 Jun 2020)
Supplement to the final revised paper
Preprint (discussion started on 26 Sep 2019)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

- Printer-friendly version

- Supplement

RC1: 'Brief communication: Seasonal prediction of salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta', Anonymous Referee #1, 04 Feb 2020
- AC1: 'Reply to comments of reviewer RC1', Heiko Apel, 19 Feb 2020
RC2: 'Review of submitted Brief Communication manuscript nhess-2019-276a', Anonymous Referee #2, 21 Feb 2020
- AC2: 'Reply to reviewer comments RC2', Heiko Apel, 20 Mar 2020

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (24 Mar 2020) by Paolo Tarolli

AR by Heiko Apel on behalf of the Authors (01 Apr 2020) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (05 Apr 2020) by Paolo Tarolli

RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (20 Apr 2020)

ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (29 Apr 2020) by Paolo Tarolli

AR by Heiko Apel on behalf of the Authors (30 Apr 2020) Author's response Manuscript

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Short summary

This study deals with salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta, a pressing issue in the third-largest river delta on Earth. It presents a simple, efficient, and cross-validated seasonal forecast model for salinity intrusion during the dry season based on logistic regression using ENSO34 or standardized streamflow indexes as predictors. The model performs exceptionally well, enabling a reliable forecast of critical salinity threshold exceedance up to 9 months prior to the dry season.