Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1609–1616, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1609-2020
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1609–1616, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1609-2020

Brief communication 05 Jun 2020

Brief communication | 05 Jun 2020

Brief communication: Seasonal prediction of salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta

Heiko Apel et al.

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Latest update: 23 Sep 2021
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Short summary
This study deals with salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta, a pressing issue in the third-largest river delta on Earth. It presents a simple, efficient, and cross-validated seasonal forecast model for salinity intrusion during the dry season based on logistic regression using ENSO34 or standardized streamflow indexes as predictors. The model performs exceptionally well, enabling a reliable forecast of critical salinity threshold exceedance up to 9 months prior to the dry season.
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