Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1609-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1609-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Brief communication
| 
05 Jun 2020
Brief communication |
| 05 Jun 2020
| 05 Jun 2020
Brief communication: Seasonal prediction of salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta
Section Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geoscience, Potsdam, Germany
Mai Khiem
National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF), Hanoi, Vietnam
Nguyen Hong Quan
Center of Water Management and Climate Change (WACC), Vietnam National University – Ho Chi Minh City (VNU – HCM), Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
To Quang Toan
Southern Institute of Water Resources Research (SIWRR), Ho Chi Minh
City, Vietnam
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Cited
25 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Is Vietnam’s Mekong Delta Facing Wet Season Droughts? H. Minh et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-024-00472-3
- Predicting salinity levels in the Mekong delta (Viet Nam): analysis of machine learning and deep learning models P. Duc et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44163-025-00336-3
- Exploring the spatial patterns of soil salinity and organic carbon in agricultural areas of Lesvos Island, Greece, using geoinformation technologies C. Lekka et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-10923-5
- Extensive assessment of climate change impacts on coastal zone paddy growth using multispectral analysis and hydrodynamic modeling S. Samsuddin Sah et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161585
- Secular trend in water discharge transport in the Lower Mekong River-delta: Effects of multiple anthropogenic stressors, rainfall, and tropical cyclones R. Tang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2023.108217
- Multiscale Drought Assessment in Kien Giang Province, Vietnam: Comparing MSPI and MSPEI for Monitoring in a Coastal Mekong Delta Setting D. Ngoc et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/earth7030071
- Development of composite drought indices for the coastal areas of southeastern China: A case study of Jinjiang and Jiulongjiang River basins H. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130210
- Salinity Intrusion Trends under the Impacts of Upstream Discharge and Sea Level Rise along the Co Chien River and Hau River in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta T. Thanh et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11030066
- Seawater intrusion in river delta systems. Inter-annual dynamics and drivers of salinity variations in the southern Mekong Delta, Vietnam J. Bauer et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133745
- Prediction of the risk level of saltwater intrusion in the Modaomen waterway of the Pearl River Estuary based on the deep temporal clustering model Q. Tian et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2025.113897
- Performances of Different Machine Learning Algorithms for Predicting Saltwater Intrusion in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta Using Limited Input Data: A Study from Ham Luong River T. Tran et al. https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807822030198
- Multi-Day Salinity Forecasting in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: Horizon-Dependent Performance and Interpretation of XGBoost, LSTM, and a Weighted Hybrid N. Cong et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w18192379
- The worst 2020 saline water intrusion disaster of the past century in the Mekong Delta: Impacts, causes, and management implications E. Park et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-021-01577-z
- Land use change in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: Long-term impacts of drought and salinity intrusion using satellite and monitoring data D. Binh et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2025.112723
- Drought Dynamics and Climate Drivers in Kien Giang Province, Vietnam: A 33-Year SPI Analysis for Adaptation Planning D. Ngoc et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/resources15030047
- Temporal analysis for multi-hazard risk assessment of rice cultivation in coastal areas: a case study of Soc Trang, Vietnam V. Thanh et al. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202234705001
- Machine Learning–Based Early-Warning Systems for Salinity Intrusion in the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam V. Nguyen et al. https://doi.org/10.1061/JHYEFF.HEENG-6223
- Moving towards sustainable coastal adaptation: Analysis of hydrological drivers of saltwater intrusion in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta T. Tran et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145125
- Reconstructing Daily Discharge in a Megadelta Using Machine Learning Techniques H. Thanh et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR031048
- Growth and yield responses of maize, beetroot, and quinoa to salinity and straw mulching C. Thi Nhien et al. https://doi.org/10.17221/317/2025-PSE
- Progress toward resilient and sustainable water management in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta V. Tri et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1670
- Extent of saltwater intrusion and freshwater exploitability in the coastal Vietnamese Mekong Delta assessed by gauging records and numerical simulations D. Duc Tran et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130655
- Investigating the suitability of Chameleon soil moisture sensors to improve water use of upland crops under conditions of temporal salinity B. Kaveney et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109602
- Reproductive ecology of the butid Oxyeleotris urophthalmus (Bleeker, 1851) in the intertidal zone of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam H. Tran & L. Tran https://doi.org/10.1007/s10641-026-01802-2
- Forecasting estuarine salt intrusion in the Rhine–Meuse delta using an LSTM model B. Wullems et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3823-2023
25 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Is Vietnam’s Mekong Delta Facing Wet Season Droughts? H. Minh et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-024-00472-3
- Predicting salinity levels in the Mekong delta (Viet Nam): analysis of machine learning and deep learning models P. Duc et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44163-025-00336-3
- Exploring the spatial patterns of soil salinity and organic carbon in agricultural areas of Lesvos Island, Greece, using geoinformation technologies C. Lekka et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-10923-5
- Extensive assessment of climate change impacts on coastal zone paddy growth using multispectral analysis and hydrodynamic modeling S. Samsuddin Sah et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161585
- Secular trend in water discharge transport in the Lower Mekong River-delta: Effects of multiple anthropogenic stressors, rainfall, and tropical cyclones R. Tang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2023.108217
- Multiscale Drought Assessment in Kien Giang Province, Vietnam: Comparing MSPI and MSPEI for Monitoring in a Coastal Mekong Delta Setting D. Ngoc et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/earth7030071
- Development of composite drought indices for the coastal areas of southeastern China: A case study of Jinjiang and Jiulongjiang River basins H. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130210
- Salinity Intrusion Trends under the Impacts of Upstream Discharge and Sea Level Rise along the Co Chien River and Hau River in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta T. Thanh et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11030066
- Seawater intrusion in river delta systems. Inter-annual dynamics and drivers of salinity variations in the southern Mekong Delta, Vietnam J. Bauer et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133745
- Prediction of the risk level of saltwater intrusion in the Modaomen waterway of the Pearl River Estuary based on the deep temporal clustering model Q. Tian et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2025.113897
- Performances of Different Machine Learning Algorithms for Predicting Saltwater Intrusion in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta Using Limited Input Data: A Study from Ham Luong River T. Tran et al. https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807822030198
- Multi-Day Salinity Forecasting in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: Horizon-Dependent Performance and Interpretation of XGBoost, LSTM, and a Weighted Hybrid N. Cong et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w18192379
- The worst 2020 saline water intrusion disaster of the past century in the Mekong Delta: Impacts, causes, and management implications E. Park et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-021-01577-z
- Land use change in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: Long-term impacts of drought and salinity intrusion using satellite and monitoring data D. Binh et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2025.112723
- Drought Dynamics and Climate Drivers in Kien Giang Province, Vietnam: A 33-Year SPI Analysis for Adaptation Planning D. Ngoc et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/resources15030047
- Temporal analysis for multi-hazard risk assessment of rice cultivation in coastal areas: a case study of Soc Trang, Vietnam V. Thanh et al. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202234705001
- Machine Learning–Based Early-Warning Systems for Salinity Intrusion in the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam V. Nguyen et al. https://doi.org/10.1061/JHYEFF.HEENG-6223
- Moving towards sustainable coastal adaptation: Analysis of hydrological drivers of saltwater intrusion in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta T. Tran et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145125
- Reconstructing Daily Discharge in a Megadelta Using Machine Learning Techniques H. Thanh et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR031048
- Growth and yield responses of maize, beetroot, and quinoa to salinity and straw mulching C. Thi Nhien et al. https://doi.org/10.17221/317/2025-PSE
- Progress toward resilient and sustainable water management in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta V. Tri et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1670
- Extent of saltwater intrusion and freshwater exploitability in the coastal Vietnamese Mekong Delta assessed by gauging records and numerical simulations D. Duc Tran et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130655
- Investigating the suitability of Chameleon soil moisture sensors to improve water use of upland crops under conditions of temporal salinity B. Kaveney et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109602
- Reproductive ecology of the butid Oxyeleotris urophthalmus (Bleeker, 1851) in the intertidal zone of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam H. Tran & L. Tran https://doi.org/10.1007/s10641-026-01802-2
- Forecasting estuarine salt intrusion in the Rhine–Meuse delta using an LSTM model B. Wullems et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3823-2023
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 24 Oct 2026
Short summary
This study deals with salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta, a pressing issue in the third-largest river delta on Earth. It presents a simple, efficient, and cross-validated seasonal forecast model for salinity intrusion during the dry season based on logistic regression using ENSO34 or standardized streamflow indexes as predictors. The model performs exceptionally well, enabling a reliable forecast of critical salinity threshold exceedance up to 9 months prior to the dry season.
This study deals with salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta, a pressing issue in the...
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