Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1609-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1609-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
Brief communication
 | 
05 Jun 2020
Brief communication |  | 05 Jun 2020

Brief communication: Seasonal prediction of salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta

Heiko Apel, Mai Khiem, Nguyen Hong Quan, and To Quang Toan

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Short summary
This study deals with salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta, a pressing issue in the third-largest river delta on Earth. It presents a simple, efficient, and cross-validated seasonal forecast model for salinity intrusion during the dry season based on logistic regression using ENSO34 or standardized streamflow indexes as predictors. The model performs exceptionally well, enabling a reliable forecast of critical salinity threshold exceedance up to 9 months prior to the dry season.
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