Articles | Volume 19, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-821-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-821-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Apr 2019
Research article |
| 17 Apr 2019
| 17 Apr 2019
Assimilation of wind data from airborne Doppler cloud-profiling radar in a kilometre-scale NWP system
Mary Borderies
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
CNRM UMR 3589, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Olivier Caumont
CNRM UMR 3589, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Julien Delanoë
LATMOS, IPSL, Université Versailles St-Quentin, CNRS, UPMC, Guyancourt, France
Véronique Ducrocq
CNRM UMR 3589, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Nadia Fourrié
CNRM UMR 3589, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Related authors
Rohit Mangla, Mary Borderies, Philippe Chambon, Alan Geer, and James Hocking
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2024-131, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2024-131, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for AMT
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides a detailed description of the radar simulator available within version 13 of the RTTOV software. It is applied to the Météo-France global numerical weather prediction model, with the objective of simulating Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar reflectivity observations. Additionally, the simulation of the bright-band is addressed, and then successfully applied to model forecasts for the purpose of classifying the model columns between stratiform and convective categories.
Alistair Bell, Pauline Martinet, Olivier Caumont, Benoît Vié, Julien Delanoë, Jean-Charles Dupont, and Mary Borderies
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 4929–4946, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4929-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4929-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents work towards making retrievals on the liquid water content in fog and low clouds. Future retrievals will rely on a radar simulator and high-resolution forecast. In this work, real observations are used to assess the errors associated with the simulator and forecast. A selection method to reduce errors associated with the forecast is proposed. It is concluded that the distribution of errors matches the requirements for future retrievals.
Mary Borderies, Olivier Caumont, Julien Delanoë, Véronique Ducrocq, Nadia Fourrié, and Pascal Marquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 907–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-907-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-907-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The potential of W-band radar reflectivity to improve the quality of analyses and forecasts of heavy precipitation events in the Mediterranean area is investigated. The 1D + 3DVar assimilation method has been adapted to assimilate the W-band reflectivity in the Météo-France kilometre-scale NWP model AROME. The results suggest that the joint assimilation of W-band reflectivity and horizontal wind profiles lead to a slight improvement of moisture analyses and rainfall precipitation forecasts.
Guillaume Feger, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Thibaut Dauhut, Julien Delanoë, and Pierre Coutris
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-105, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-105, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Saharan air at trade wind layer, cold pools, and upper tropospheric dry air are identified as the three main factors inhibiting the cyclogenesis of the Pierre Henri mesoscale convective system. The findings were obtained trough observations made during two flights of the CADDIWA campaign and a convection-permitting simulation run with the Meso-NH model. They provide new insights into the complex dynamics of cyclogenesis in the Cape Verde region and challenge the existing model of the SAL.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The use of numerical weather prediction models enables the forecasting of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated in this study. This leads to the improvement of the associated near-surface variables of the model during the first hours of the forecast. Examples are provided for a sea breeze case during a heatwave and a fog episode.
Vincent Forcadell, Clotilde Augros, Olivier Caumont, Kévin Dedieu, Maxandre Ouradou, Cloé David, Jordi Figueras i Ventura, Olivier Laurantin, and Hassan Al-Sakka
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 6707–6734, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-6707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-6707-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study demonstrates the potential of enhancing severe-hail detection through the application of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to dual-polarization radar data. It is shown that current methods can be calibrated to significantly enhance their performance for severe-hail detection. This study establishes the foundation for the solution of a more complex problem: the estimation of the maximum size of hailstones on the ground using deep learning applied to radar data.
Francesca Vittorioso, Vincent Guidard, and Nadia Fourrié
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 5279–5299, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5279-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The future Meteosat Third Generation Infrared Sounder (MTG-IRS) will represent a major innovation for the monitoring of the chemical state of the atmosphere. MTG-IRS will have the advantage of being based on a geostationary platform and acquiring data with a high temporal frequency. This work aims to evaluate its potential impact over Europe within a chemical transport model (MOCAGE). The results indicate that the assimilation of these data always has a positive impact on ozone analysis.
Rohit Mangla, Mary Borderies, Philippe Chambon, Alan Geer, and James Hocking
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2024-131, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2024-131, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for AMT
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides a detailed description of the radar simulator available within version 13 of the RTTOV software. It is applied to the Météo-France global numerical weather prediction model, with the objective of simulating Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar reflectivity observations. Additionally, the simulation of the bright-band is addressed, and then successfully applied to model forecasts for the purpose of classifying the model columns between stratiform and convective categories.
Manfred Wendisch, Susanne Crewell, André Ehrlich, Andreas Herber, Benjamin Kirbus, Christof Lüpkes, Mario Mech, Steven J. Abel, Elisa F. Akansu, Felix Ament, Clémantyne Aubry, Sebastian Becker, Stephan Borrmann, Heiko Bozem, Marlen Brückner, Hans-Christian Clemen, Sandro Dahlke, Georgios Dekoutsidis, Julien Delanoë, Elena De La Torre Castro, Henning Dorff, Regis Dupuy, Oliver Eppers, Florian Ewald, Geet George, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, Sarah Grawe, Silke Groß, Jörg Hartmann, Silvia Henning, Lutz Hirsch, Evelyn Jäkel, Philipp Joppe, Olivier Jourdan, Zsofia Jurányi, Michail Karalis, Mona Kellermann, Marcus Klingebiel, Michael Lonardi, Johannes Lucke, Anna E. Luebke, Maximilian Maahn, Nina Maherndl, Marion Maturilli, Bernhard Mayer, Johanna Mayer, Stephan Mertes, Janosch Michaelis, Michel Michalkov, Guillaume Mioche, Manuel Moser, Hanno Müller, Roel Neggers, Davide Ori, Daria Paul, Fiona M. Paulus, Christian Pilz, Felix Pithan, Mira Pöhlker, Veronika Pörtge, Maximilian Ringel, Nils Risse, Gregory C. Roberts, Sophie Rosenburg, Johannes Röttenbacher, Janna Rückert, Michael Schäfer, Jonas Schaefer, Vera Schemann, Imke Schirmacher, Jörg Schmidt, Sebastian Schmidt, Johannes Schneider, Sabrina Schnitt, Anja Schwarz, Holger Siebert, Harald Sodemann, Tim Sperzel, Gunnar Spreen, Bjorn Stevens, Frank Stratmann, Gunilla Svensson, Christian Tatzelt, Thomas Tuch, Timo Vihma, Christiane Voigt, Lea Volkmer, Andreas Walbröl, Anna Weber, Birgit Wehner, Bruno Wetzel, Martin Wirth, and Tobias Zinner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8865–8892, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8865-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8865-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the globe. Warm-air intrusions (WAIs) into the Arctic may play an important role in explaining this phenomenon. Cold-air outbreaks (CAOs) out of the Arctic may link the Arctic climate changes to mid-latitude weather. In our article, we describe how to observe air mass transformations during CAOs and WAIs using three research aircraft instrumented with state-of-the-art remote-sensing and in situ measurement devices.
Clémantyne Aubry, Julien Delanoë, Silke Groß, Florian Ewald, Frédéric Tridon, Olivier Jourdan, and Guillaume Mioche
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 3863–3881, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-3863-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-3863-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Radar–lidar synergy is used to retrieve ice, supercooled water and mixed-phase cloud properties, making the most of the radar sensitivity to ice crystals and the lidar sensitivity to supercooled droplets. A first analysis of the output of the algorithm run on the satellite data is compared with in situ data during an airborne Arctic field campaign, giving a mean percent error of 49 % for liquid water content and 75 % for ice water content.
Ethel Villeneuve, Philippe Chambon, and Nadia Fourrié
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 3567–3582, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-3567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-3567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In cloudy situations, infrared and microwave observations are complementary, with infrared being sensitive to cloud tops and microwave sensitive to precipitation. However, infrared satellite observations are underused. This study aims to quantify if the inconsistencies in the modelling of clouds prevent the use of cloudy infrared observations in the process of weather forecasting. It shows that the synergistic use of infrared and microwave observations is beneficial, despite inconsistencies.
Karina McCusker, Anthony J. Baran, Chris Westbrook, Stuart Fox, Patrick Eriksson, Richard Cotton, Julien Delanoë, and Florian Ewald
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 3533–3552, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-3533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-3533-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Polarised radiative transfer simulations are performed using an atmospheric model based on in situ measurements. These are compared to large polarisation measurements to explore whether such measurements can provide information on cloud ice, e.g. particle shape and orientation. We find that using oriented particle models with shapes based on imagery generally allows for accurate simulations. However, results are sensitive to shape assumptions such as the choice of single crystals or aggregates.
Théophane Costabloz, Frédéric Burnet, Christine Lac, Pauline Martinet, Julien Delanoë, Susana Jorquera, and Maroua Fathalli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1344, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1344, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study documents vertical profiles of liquid water content (LWC) in fogs from in situ measurements collected during the SOFOG3D field campaign in 2019–2020. The analysis of 140 vertical profiles reveals a reverse trend in LWC, maximum values at ground decreasing with height, during stable conditions in optically thin fogs, evolving towards quasi-adiabatic characteristics when fogs become thick. These results offer new perspectives for better constraining fog numerical simulations.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 907–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Improvements in numerical weather prediction models make it possible to warn of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated. It leads to a significant improvement in the modelling of the surface pressure field up to 9 h ahead. Their incorporation improves the location and intensity of the heavy precipitation event that occurred in the South of France in September 2021.
Cheikh Dione, Martial Haeffelin, Frédéric Burnet, Christine Lac, Guylaine Canut, Julien Delanoë, Jean-Charles Dupont, Susana Jorquera, Pauline Martinet, Jean-François Ribaud, and Felipe Toledo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15711–15731, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15711-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15711-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper documents the role of thermodynamics and turbulence in the fog life cycle over southwestern France. It is based on a unique dataset collected during the SOFOG3D field campaign in autumn and winter 2019–2020. The paper gives a threshold for turbulence driving the different phases of the fog life cycle and the role of advection in the night-time dissipation of fog. The results can be operationalised to nowcast fog and improve short-range forecasts in numerical weather prediction models.
Leonie Villiger, Marina Dütsch, Sandrine Bony, Marie Lothon, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Patrick Chazette, Pierre Coutris, Julien Delanoë, Cyrille Flamant, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Martin Werner, and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14643–14672, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates three numerical simulations performed with an isotope-enabled weather forecast model and investigates the coupling between shallow trade-wind cumulus clouds and atmospheric circulations on different scales. We show that the simulations reproduce key characteristics of shallow trade-wind clouds as observed during the field experiment EUREC4A and that the spatial distribution of stable-water-vapour isotopes is shaped by the overturning circulation associated with these clouds.
Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, and Eric Defer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2821–2840, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work develops a novel lightning data assimilation (LDA) technique to make use of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) data in a regional, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model. The approach combines statistical Bayesian and 3-dimensional variational methods. Our LDA can promote missing convection and suppress spurious convection in the initial state of the model, and it has similar skill to the operational radar data assimilation for rainfall forecasts.
Abdanour Irbah, Julien Delanoë, Gerd-Jan van Zadelhoff, David P. Donovan, Pavlos Kollias, Bernat Puigdomènech Treserras, Shannon Mason, Robin J. Hogan, and Aleksandra Tatarevic
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 2795–2820, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2795-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2795-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) and ATmospheric LIDar (ATLID) aboard the EarthCARE satellite are used to probe the Earth's atmosphere by measuring cloud and aerosol profiles. ATLID is sensitive to aerosols and small cloud particles and CPR to large ice particles, snowflakes and raindrops. It is the synergy of the measurements of these two instruments that allows a better classification of the atmospheric targets and the description of the associated products, which are the subject of this paper.
Pragya Vishwakarma, Julien Delanoë, Susana Jorquera, Pauline Martinet, Frederic Burnet, Alistair Bell, and Jean-Charles Dupont
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 1211–1237, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-1211-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-1211-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cloud observations are necessary to characterize the cloud properties at local and global scales. The observations must be translated to cloud geophysical parameters. This paper presents the estimation of liquid water content (LWC) using radar and microwave radiometer (MWR) measurements. Liquid water path from MWR scales LWC and retrieves the scaling factor (ln a). The retrievals are compared with in situ observations. A climatology of ln a is built to estimate LWC using only radar information.
Alistair Bell, Pauline Martinet, Olivier Caumont, Frédéric Burnet, Julien Delanoë, Susana Jorquera, Yann Seity, and Vinciane Unger
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 5415–5438, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5415-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5415-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Cloud radars and microwave radiometers offer the potential to improve fog forecasts when assimilated into a high-resolution model. As this process can be complex, a retrieval of model variables is sometimes made as a first step. In this work, results from a 1D-Var algorithm for the retrieval of temperature, humidity and cloud liquid water content are presented. The algorithm is applied first to a synthetic dataset and then to a dataset of real measurements from a recent field campaign.
Pauline Combarnous, Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, Éric Defer, and Maud Martet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2943–2962, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2943-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2943-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study is to prepare the assimilation of satellite lightning data in the French regional numerical weather prediction system. The assimilation of lightning data requires an observation operator, based on empirical relationships between the lightning observations and a set of proxies derived from the numerical weather prediction system variables. We fit machine learning regression models to our data to yield those relationships and to investigate the best proxy for lightning.
Meryl Wimmer, Gwendal Rivière, Philippe Arbogast, Jean-Marcel Piriou, Julien Delanoë, Carole Labadie, Quitterie Cazenave, and Jacques Pelon
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 863–882, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-863-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of deep convection representation on the jet stream above the cold front of an extratropical cyclone is investigated in the global numerical weather prediction model ARPEGE. Two simulations using different deep convection schemes are compared with (re)analysis datasets and NAWDEX airborne observations. A deeper jet stream is observed with the less active scheme. The diabatic origin of this difference is interpreted by backward Lagrangian trajectories and potential vorticity budgets.
Alexane Lovat, Béatrice Vincendon, and Véronique Ducrocq
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2697–2714, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2697-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2697-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The hydrometeorological skills of two new nowcasting systems for forecasting Mediterranean intense rainfall events and floods are investigated. The results reveal that up to 75 or 90 min of forecast the performance of the nowcasting system blending numerical weather prediction and extrapolation of radar estimation is higher than the numerical weather model. For lead times up to 3 h the skills are equivalent in general. Using these nowcasting systems for flash flood forecasting is also promising.
Sandrine Bony, Marie Lothon, Julien Delanoë, Pierre Coutris, Jean-Claude Etienne, Franziska Aemisegger, Anna Lea Albright, Thierry André, Hubert Bellec, Alexandre Baron, Jean-François Bourdinot, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Aurélien Bourdon, Jean-Christophe Canonici, Christophe Caudoux, Patrick Chazette, Michel Cluzeau, Céline Cornet, Jean-Philippe Desbios, Dominique Duchanoy, Cyrille Flamant, Benjamin Fildier, Christophe Gourbeyre, Laurent Guiraud, Tetyana Jiang, Claude Lainard, Christophe Le Gac, Christian Lendroit, Julien Lernould, Thierry Perrin, Frédéric Pouvesle, Pascal Richard, Nicolas Rochetin, Kevin Salaün, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Guillaume Seurat, Bjorn Stevens, Julien Totems, Ludovic Touzé-Peiffer, Gilles Vergez, Jessica Vial, Leonie Villiger, and Raphaela Vogel
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2021–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2021-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2021-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The French ATR42 research aircraft participated in the EUREC4A international field campaign that took place in 2020 over the tropical Atlantic, east of Barbados. We present the extensive instrumentation of the aircraft, the research flights and the different measurements. We show that the ATR measurements of humidity, wind, aerosols and cloudiness in the lower atmosphere are robust and consistent with each other. They will make it possible to advance understanding of cloud–climate interactions.
Samira Khodayar, Silvio Davolio, Paolo Di Girolamo, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Emmanouil Flaounas, Nadia Fourrie, Keun-Ok Lee, Didier Ricard, Benoit Vie, Francois Bouttier, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, and Veronique Ducrocq
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17051–17078, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17051-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17051-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation (HP) constitutes a major meteorological threat in the western Mediterranean. Every year, recurrent events affect the area with fatal consequences. Despite this being a well-known issue, open questions still remain. The understanding of the underlying mechanisms and the modeling representation of the events must be improved. In this article we present the most recent lessons learned from the Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX).
Gwendal Rivière, Meryl Wimmer, Philippe Arbogast, Jean-Marcel Piriou, Julien Delanoë, Carole Labadie, Quitterie Cazenave, and Jacques Pelon
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1011–1031, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1011-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1011-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Inacurracies in representing processes occurring at spatial scales smaller than the grid scales of the weather forecast models are important sources of forecast errors. This is the case of deep convection representation in models with 10 km grid spacing. We performed simulations of a real extratropical cyclone using a model with different representations of deep convection. These forecasts lead to different behaviors in the ascending air masses of the cyclone and the jet stream aloft.
Marc Mandement and Olivier Caumont
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 795–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-795-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-795-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
On 14–15 October 2018, in the Aude department (France), a heavy-precipitation event produced up to about 300 mm of rain in 11 h. Simulations carried out show that the former Hurricane Leslie, while involved, was not the first supplier of moisture over the entire event. The location of the highest rainfall was primarily driven by the location of a quasi-stationary front and secondarily by the location of precipitation bands downwind of mountains bordering the Mediterranean Sea.
Bjorn Stevens, Sandrine Bony, David Farrell, Felix Ament, Alan Blyth, Christopher Fairall, Johannes Karstensen, Patricia K. Quinn, Sabrina Speich, Claudia Acquistapace, Franziska Aemisegger, Anna Lea Albright, Hugo Bellenger, Eberhard Bodenschatz, Kathy-Ann Caesar, Rebecca Chewitt-Lucas, Gijs de Boer, Julien Delanoë, Leif Denby, Florian Ewald, Benjamin Fildier, Marvin Forde, Geet George, Silke Gross, Martin Hagen, Andrea Hausold, Karen J. Heywood, Lutz Hirsch, Marek Jacob, Friedhelm Jansen, Stefan Kinne, Daniel Klocke, Tobias Kölling, Heike Konow, Marie Lothon, Wiebke Mohr, Ann Kristin Naumann, Louise Nuijens, Léa Olivier, Robert Pincus, Mira Pöhlker, Gilles Reverdin, Gregory Roberts, Sabrina Schnitt, Hauke Schulz, A. Pier Siebesma, Claudia Christine Stephan, Peter Sullivan, Ludovic Touzé-Peiffer, Jessica Vial, Raphaela Vogel, Paquita Zuidema, Nicola Alexander, Lyndon Alves, Sophian Arixi, Hamish Asmath, Gholamhossein Bagheri, Katharina Baier, Adriana Bailey, Dariusz Baranowski, Alexandre Baron, Sébastien Barrau, Paul A. Barrett, Frédéric Batier, Andreas Behrendt, Arne Bendinger, Florent Beucher, Sebastien Bigorre, Edmund Blades, Peter Blossey, Olivier Bock, Steven Böing, Pierre Bosser, Denis Bourras, Pascale Bouruet-Aubertot, Keith Bower, Pierre Branellec, Hubert Branger, Michal Brennek, Alan Brewer, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Björn Brügmann, Stefan A. Buehler, Elmo Burke, Ralph Burton, Radiance Calmer, Jean-Christophe Canonici, Xavier Carton, Gregory Cato Jr., Jude Andre Charles, Patrick Chazette, Yanxu Chen, Michal T. Chilinski, Thomas Choularton, Patrick Chuang, Shamal Clarke, Hugh Coe, Céline Cornet, Pierre Coutris, Fleur Couvreux, Susanne Crewell, Timothy Cronin, Zhiqiang Cui, Yannis Cuypers, Alton Daley, Gillian M. Damerell, Thibaut Dauhut, Hartwig Deneke, Jean-Philippe Desbios, Steffen Dörner, Sebastian Donner, Vincent Douet, Kyla Drushka, Marina Dütsch, André Ehrlich, Kerry Emanuel, Alexandros Emmanouilidis, Jean-Claude Etienne, Sheryl Etienne-Leblanc, Ghislain Faure, Graham Feingold, Luca Ferrero, Andreas Fix, Cyrille Flamant, Piotr Jacek Flatau, Gregory R. Foltz, Linda Forster, Iulian Furtuna, Alan Gadian, Joseph Galewsky, Martin Gallagher, Peter Gallimore, Cassandra Gaston, Chelle Gentemann, Nicolas Geyskens, Andreas Giez, John Gollop, Isabelle Gouirand, Christophe Gourbeyre, Dörte de Graaf, Geiske E. de Groot, Robert Grosz, Johannes Güttler, Manuel Gutleben, Kashawn Hall, George Harris, Kevin C. Helfer, Dean Henze, Calvert Herbert, Bruna Holanda, Antonio Ibanez-Landeta, Janet Intrieri, Suneil Iyer, Fabrice Julien, Heike Kalesse, Jan Kazil, Alexander Kellman, Abiel T. Kidane, Ulrike Kirchner, Marcus Klingebiel, Mareike Körner, Leslie Ann Kremper, Jan Kretzschmar, Ovid Krüger, Wojciech Kumala, Armin Kurz, Pierre L'Hégaret, Matthieu Labaste, Tom Lachlan-Cope, Arlene Laing, Peter Landschützer, Theresa Lang, Diego Lange, Ingo Lange, Clément Laplace, Gauke Lavik, Rémi Laxenaire, Caroline Le Bihan, Mason Leandro, Nathalie Lefevre, Marius Lena, Donald Lenschow, Qiang Li, Gary Lloyd, Sebastian Los, Niccolò Losi, Oscar Lovell, Christopher Luneau, Przemyslaw Makuch, Szymon Malinowski, Gaston Manta, Eleni Marinou, Nicholas Marsden, Sebastien Masson, Nicolas Maury, Bernhard Mayer, Margarette Mayers-Als, Christophe Mazel, Wayne McGeary, James C. McWilliams, Mario Mech, Melina Mehlmann, Agostino Niyonkuru Meroni, Theresa Mieslinger, Andreas Minikin, Peter Minnett, Gregor Möller, Yanmichel Morfa Avalos, Caroline Muller, Ionela Musat, Anna Napoli, Almuth Neuberger, Christophe Noisel, David Noone, Freja Nordsiek, Jakub L. Nowak, Lothar Oswald, Douglas J. Parker, Carolyn Peck, Renaud Person, Miriam Philippi, Albert Plueddemann, Christopher Pöhlker, Veronika Pörtge, Ulrich Pöschl, Lawrence Pologne, Michał Posyniak, Marc Prange, Estefanía Quiñones Meléndez, Jule Radtke, Karim Ramage, Jens Reimann, Lionel Renault, Klaus Reus, Ashford Reyes, Joachim Ribbe, Maximilian Ringel, Markus Ritschel, Cesar B. Rocha, Nicolas Rochetin, Johannes Röttenbacher, Callum Rollo, Haley Royer, Pauline Sadoulet, Leo Saffin, Sanola Sandiford, Irina Sandu, Michael Schäfer, Vera Schemann, Imke Schirmacher, Oliver Schlenczek, Jerome Schmidt, Marcel Schröder, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Andrea Sealy, Christoph J. Senff, Ilya Serikov, Samkeyat Shohan, Elizabeth Siddle, Alexander Smirnov, Florian Späth, Branden Spooner, M. Katharina Stolla, Wojciech Szkółka, Simon P. de Szoeke, Stéphane Tarot, Eleni Tetoni, Elizabeth Thompson, Jim Thomson, Lorenzo Tomassini, Julien Totems, Alma Anna Ubele, Leonie Villiger, Jan von Arx, Thomas Wagner, Andi Walther, Ben Webber, Manfred Wendisch, Shanice Whitehall, Anton Wiltshire, Allison A. Wing, Martin Wirth, Jonathan Wiskandt, Kevin Wolf, Ludwig Worbes, Ethan Wright, Volker Wulfmeyer, Shanea Young, Chidong Zhang, Dongxiao Zhang, Florian Ziemen, Tobias Zinner, and Martin Zöger
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4067–4119, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4067-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4067-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The EUREC4A field campaign, designed to test hypothesized mechanisms by which clouds respond to warming and benchmark next-generation Earth-system models, is presented. EUREC4A comprised roughly 5 weeks of measurements in the downstream winter trades of the North Atlantic – eastward and southeastward of Barbados. It was the first campaign that attempted to characterize the full range of processes and scales influencing trade wind clouds.
Florian Ewald, Silke Groß, Martin Wirth, Julien Delanoë, Stuart Fox, and Bernhard Mayer
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 5029–5047, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5029-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5029-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we show how solar radiance observations can be used to validate and further constrain ice cloud microphysics retrieved from the synergy of radar–lidar measurements. Since most radar–lidar retrievals rely on a global assumption about the ice particle shape, ice water content and particle size biases are to be expected in individual cloud regimes. In this work, we identify and correct these biases by reconciling simulated and measured solar radiation reflected from these clouds.
Alistair Bell, Pauline Martinet, Olivier Caumont, Benoît Vié, Julien Delanoë, Jean-Charles Dupont, and Mary Borderies
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 4929–4946, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4929-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4929-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents work towards making retrievals on the liquid water content in fog and low clouds. Future retrievals will rely on a radar simulator and high-resolution forecast. In this work, real observations are used to assess the errors associated with the simulator and forecast. A selection method to reduce errors associated with the forecast is proposed. It is concluded that the distribution of errors matches the requirements for future retrievals.
Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Marie Lothon, Jean-Claude Etienne, Pascal Richard, Sandrine Bony, Julien Lernoult, Hubert Bellec, Gilles Vergez, Thierry Perrin, Julien Delanoë, Tetyana Jiang, Frédéric Pouvesle, Claude Lainard, Michel Cluzeau, Laurent Guiraud, Patrice Medina, and Theotime Charoy
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3379–3398, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3379-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3379-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
During the EUREC4A field experiment that took place over the tropical Atlantic Ocean east of Barbados, the French ATR 42 environment research aircraft of SAFIRE aimed to characterize the shallow cloud properties near cloud base and the turbulent structure of the subcloud layer. The high-frequency measurements of wind, temperature and humidity as well as their translation in terms of turbulent fluctuations, turbulent moments and characteristic length scales of turbulence are presented.
Olivier Caumont, Marc Mandement, François Bouttier, Judith Eeckman, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Alexane Lovat, Olivier Nuissier, and Olivier Laurantin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1135–1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1135-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1135-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study focuses on the heavy precipitation event of 14 and 15 October 2018, which caused deadly flash floods in the Aude basin in south-western France.
The case is studied from a meteorological point of view using various operational numerical weather prediction systems, as well as a unique combination of observations from both standard and personal weather stations. The peculiarities of this case compared to other cases of Mediterranean heavy precipitation events are presented.
David L. A. Flack, Gwendal Rivière, Ionela Musat, Romain Roehrig, Sandrine Bony, Julien Delanoë, Quitterie Cazenave, and Jacques Pelon
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 233–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-233-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-233-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The representation of an extratropical cyclone in simulations of two climate models is studied by comparing them to observations of the international field campaign NAWDEX. We show that the current resolution used to run climate model projections (more than 100 km) is not enough to represent the life cycle accurately, but the use of 50 km resolution is good enough. Despite these encouraging results, cloud properties (partitioning liquid and solid) are found to be far from the observations.
Nadia Fourrié, Mathieu Nuret, Pierre Brousseau, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 463–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-463-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-463-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The assimilation impact of four observation data sets on forecasts is studied in a mesoscale weather model. The ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) zenithal total delay data set with information on humidity has the largest impact on analyses and forecasts, representing an evenly spread and frequent data set for each analysis time over the model domain. Moreover, the reprocessing of these data also improves the forecast quality, but this impact is not statistically significant.
Nicolas Blanchard, Florian Pantillon, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, and Julien Delanoë
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 37–53, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-37-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Rare aircraft observations in the warm conveyor belt outflow associated with an extratropical cyclone are complemented with convection-permitting simulations. They reveal a complex tropopause structure with two jet stream cores, from which one is reinforced by bands of negative potential vorticity. They show that negative potential vorticity takes its origin in mid-level convection, which indirectly accelerates the jet stream and, thus, may influence the downstream large-scale circulation.
Frédéric Szczap, Alaa Alkasem, Guillaume Mioche, Valery Shcherbakov, Céline Cornet, Julien Delanoë, Yahya Gour, Olivier Jourdan, Sandra Banson, and Edouard Bray
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 199–221, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-199-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-199-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Spaceborne lidar and radar are suitable tools to investigate cloud vertical properties on a global scale. This paper presents the McRALI code that provides simulations of lidar and radar signals from the EarthCARE mission. Regarding radar signals, cloud heterogeneity induces a severe bias in velocity estimates. Regarding lidar signals, multiple scattering is not negligible. Our results also give some insight into the reliability of lidar signal modeling using independent column approximation.
Felipe Toledo, Julien Delanoë, Martial Haeffelin, Jean-Charles Dupont, Susana Jorquera, and Christophe Le Gac
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 6853–6875, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-6853-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-6853-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Cloud observations are essential to rainfall, fog and climate change forecasts. One key instrument for these observations is cloud radar. Yet, discrepancies are found when comparing radars from different ground stations or satellites. Our work presents a calibration methodology for cloud radars based on reference targets, including an analysis of the uncertainty sources. The method enables the calibration of reference instruments to improve the quality and value of the cloud radar network data.
Olivier Nuissier, Fanny Duffourg, Maxime Martinet, Véronique Ducrocq, and Christine Lac
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14649–14667, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14649-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14649-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This present article demonstrates how numerical simulations with very high horizontal resolution (150 m) can contribute to better understanding the key physical processes (turbulence and microphysics) that lead to Mediterranean heavy precipitation.
Nicolas Blanchard, Florian Pantillon, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, and Julien Delanoë
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 617–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-617-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-617-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents the first results from the airborne RASTA observations measured during the North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment (NAWDEX). Our combined Eulerian–Lagrangian analysis found three types of organized convection (frontal, banded and mid-level) in the warm conveyor belt (WCB) of the Stalactite cyclone. The results emphasize that convection embedded in WCBs occurs in a coherent and organized manner rather than as isolated cells.
Olivier Coopmann, Vincent Guidard, Nadia Fourrié, Béatrice Josse, and Virginie Marécal
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 2659–2680, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-2659-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-2659-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this paper is to make a new selection of IASI channels by taking into account inter-channel observation-error correlations. Our selection further reduces the analysis error by 3 % in temperature, 1.8 % in humidity and 0.9 % in ozone compared to Collard’s selection, when using the same number of channels. A selection of 400 IASI channels is proposed at the end of the paper which is able to further reduce analysis errors.
Emmanuel Fontaine, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Delphine Leroy, Julien Delanoë, Alain Protat, Fabien Dezitter, John Walter Strapp, and Lyle Edward Lilie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3503–3553, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3503-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3503-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates properties of ice hydrometeors (shape, concentration, density, and size) in deep convective systems. The analysis focuses on similarities and differences over four locations in the tropical troposphere. It shows that measurements as a function of temperature and radar reflectivity factors tend to be similar in the four types of deep convective systems when concentrations of ice are larger than 0.1 g m-3.
Felix Erdmann, Eric Defer, Olivier Caumont, Richard J. Blakeslee, Stéphane Pédeboy, and Sylvain Coquillat
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 853–875, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-853-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-853-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This article compares lightning observations from an optical sensor onboard the International Space Station to two ground-based networks using different radio frequencies. The location and timing of coincident flashes agree well for the three instruments. Differences exist for the detected number of flashes and the characteristics. Small flashes in particular are not always detected by all three instruments. About half of the flashes at altitudes below 10 km are not seen by the satellite sensor.
César Sauvage, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Marie-Noëlle Bouin, and Véronique Ducrocq
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1675–1699, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1675-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1675-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Air–sea exchanges during Mediterranean heavy precipitation events are key and their representation must be improved for high-resolution weather forecasts. This study investigates the mechanisms acting at the air–sea interface during a case that occurred in southern France. To focus on the impact of sea state, we developed and used an original coupled air–wave model. Results show modifications of the forecast for the air–sea fluxes, the near-surface wind and the location of precipitation.
Marc Mandement and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 299–322, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-299-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-299-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The number of connected personal weather stations has dramatically increased in the last years. These weather stations produce a high number of data that need a thorough quality control to unleash their potential. A novel quality-control algorithm now allows us to take full advantage of these data and observe thunderstorms with fine-scale details that cannot be caught by standard networks. These results pave the way for tremendous advances in both understanding and forecasting thunderstorms.
Tony Le Bastard, Olivier Caumont, Nicolas Gaussiat, and Fatima Karbou
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 5669–5684, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-5669-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-5669-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The estimation of surface rainfall from radars becomes less effective at long ranges or in mountainous regions where the radar beam is far from the ground. The method proposed in this paper investigates how vertical profiles simulated from high-resolution model can be used to predict the evolution of the precipitation below the radar beam. Our results show that this novel method leads to better results than the current operational methods that either use climatological or idealised profiles.
Stefano Federico, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Elenio Avolio, Olivier Caumont, Mario Montopoli, Luca Baldini, Gianfranco Vulpiani, and Stefano Dietrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1839–1864, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1839-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1839-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows the possibility to improve the weather forecast at the very short range (0–3 h) using lightning and/or radar reflectivity observations. We consider two challenging events that occurred over Italy, named Serrano and Livorno, characterized by moderate and exceptional rainfall, respectively.
The improvement given to the forecast by using the lightning and/or radar reflectivity observations is considerable. The best performance is obtained when using both data.
Nadia Fourrié, Mathieu Nuret, Pierre Brousseau, Olivier Caumont, Alexis Doerenbecher, Eric Wattrelot, Patrick Moll, Hervé Bénichou, Dominique Puech, Olivier Bock, Pierre Bosser, Patrick Chazette, Cyrille Flamant, Paolo Di Girolamo, Evelyne Richard, and Frédérique Saïd
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2657–2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2657-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2657-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The AROME-WMED (western Mediterranean) model is a dedicated version of the mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction AROME-France model that ran in real time during the first special observation period of HyMeX. Two reanalyses were performed after the campaign. This paper depicts the main differences between the real-time version and the benefits brought by both HyMeX reanalyses. The second reanalysis is found to be closer to observations than the previous AROME-WMED analyses.
Imane Farouk, Nadia Fourrié, and Vincent Guidard
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 3001–3017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-3001-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-3001-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A selection for homogeneous scenes for the assimilation of IASI radiances is proposed by using information on the collocated imager pixels inside each infrared observation. A revised method for the selection, which represents a compromise between two methods to select homogeneous scenes using homogeneity criteria already proposed in the literature, has a positive impact on the observation minus the simulation statistics. It has been tested in a numerical weather prediction model for clear sky.
Constantino Listowski, Julien Delanoë, Amélie Kirchgaessner, Tom Lachlan-Cope, and John King
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6771–6808, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6771-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6771-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Using satellite cloud products we investigate the supercooled liquid-water (SLW) distribution Antarctic-wide for the first time. We demonstrate differences between the monthly evolution of the marine low-level mixed-phase clouds and that of the marine low-level pure SLW clouds. In addition to the temperature and sea ice fraction as factors explaining the low-level liquid-cloud seasonal cycle, ice nuclei emissions from open water may also be driving the mixed-phase cloud monthly evolution.
Quitterie Cazenave, Marie Ceccaldi, Julien Delanoë, Jacques Pelon, Silke Groß, and Andrew Heymsfield
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 2819–2835, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-2819-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-2819-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of ice clouds on the water cycle and radiative budget is still uncertain due to the complexity of cloud processes that makes it difficult to acquire adequate observations of ice cloud properties and parameterize them into climate and weather prediction models. In this paper we present the latest refinements brought to the DARDAR-CLOUD product, which contains ice cloud microphysical properties retrieved from the cloud radar and lidar measurements from the A-Train space mission.
Mary Borderies, Olivier Caumont, Julien Delanoë, Véronique Ducrocq, Nadia Fourrié, and Pascal Marquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 907–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-907-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-907-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The potential of W-band radar reflectivity to improve the quality of analyses and forecasts of heavy precipitation events in the Mediterranean area is investigated. The 1D + 3DVar assimilation method has been adapted to assimilate the W-band reflectivity in the Météo-France kilometre-scale NWP model AROME. The results suggest that the joint assimilation of W-band reflectivity and horizontal wind profiles lead to a slight improvement of moisture analyses and rainfall precipitation forecasts.
Alexane Lovat, Béatrice Vincendon, and Véronique Ducrocq
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1801–1818, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1801-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1801-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims to estimate the extent to which the terrain descriptors and the spatial resolution of the hydrological model influence flash-flood modelling at the local and basin scale. The skill of the hydrological simulations is evaluated with conventional data (such as discharge measurements) and impact data (post-event surveys and high-water marks). The results reveal that the spatial resolution has the largest impact on the hydrological simulations, larger than soil texture and land cover.
Florian Ewald, Silke Groß, Martin Hagen, Lutz Hirsch, Julien Delanoë, and Matthias Bauer-Pfundstein
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 1815–1839, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-1815-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-1815-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study gives a summary of lessons learned during the absolute calibration of the airborne, high-power Ka-band cloud radar HAMP MIRA on board the German research aircraft HALO. The first part covers the internal calibration of the instrument where individual instrument components are characterized in the laboratory. In the second part, the internal calibration is validated with external reference sources like the ocean surface backscatter and different air- and spaceborne cloud radars.
Keun-Ok Lee, Cyrille Flamant, Fanny Duffourg, Véronique Ducrocq, and Jean-Pierre Chaboureau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16845–16862, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16845-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16845-2018, 2018
Odran Sourdeval, Edward Gryspeerdt, Martina Krämer, Tom Goren, Julien Delanoë, Armin Afchine, Friederike Hemmer, and Johannes Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 14327–14350, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14327-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14327-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The number concentration of ice crystals (Ni) is a key cloud property that remains very uncertain due to difficulties in determining it using satellites. This lack of global observational constraints limits our ability to constrain this property in models responsible for predicting future climate. This pair of papers fills this gap by showing and analyzing the first rigorously evaluated global climatology of Ni, leading to new information shedding light on the processes that control high clouds.
Edward Gryspeerdt, Odran Sourdeval, Johannes Quaas, Julien Delanoë, Martina Krämer, and Philipp Kühne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 14351–14370, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14351-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14351-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The concentration of ice crystals in a cloud affects both the properties and the life cycle of the cloud. This work uses a new satellite retrieval to investigate controls on the ice crystal concentration at a global scale. Both temperature and vertical wind speed in a cloud have a strong impact on the concentration of ice crystals. The ice crystal number is also related to the aerosol environment; defining this relation opens up new ways to investigate human impacts on clouds and the climate.
Brian H. Kahn, Hanii Takahashi, Graeme L. Stephens, Qing Yue, Julien Delanoë, Gerald Manipon, Evan M. Manning, and Andrew J. Heymsfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10715–10739, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10715-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10715-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) satellite instrument shows statistically significant global trends in ice cloud properties between September 2002 and August 2016. The trends are not explained by known AIRS instrument limitations. Significant differences in the ice cloud particle size is found between convective clouds and thin ice clouds in the tropics. These results will be a useful benchmark for other studies of global ice cloud properties.
Christine Lac, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Valéry Masson, Jean-Pierre Pinty, Pierre Tulet, Juan Escobar, Maud Leriche, Christelle Barthe, Benjamin Aouizerats, Clotilde Augros, Pierre Aumond, Franck Auguste, Peter Bechtold, Sarah Berthet, Soline Bielli, Frédéric Bosseur, Olivier Caumont, Jean-Martial Cohard, Jeanne Colin, Fleur Couvreux, Joan Cuxart, Gaëlle Delautier, Thibaut Dauhut, Véronique Ducrocq, Jean-Baptiste Filippi, Didier Gazen, Olivier Geoffroy, François Gheusi, Rachel Honnert, Jean-Philippe Lafore, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Quentin Libois, Thibaut Lunet, Céline Mari, Tomislav Maric, Patrick Mascart, Maxime Mogé, Gilles Molinié, Olivier Nuissier, Florian Pantillon, Philippe Peyrillé, Julien Pergaud, Emilie Perraud, Joris Pianezze, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Didier Ricard, Evelyne Richard, Sébastien Riette, Quentin Rodier, Robert Schoetter, Léo Seyfried, Joël Stein, Karsten Suhre, Marie Taufour, Odile Thouron, Sandra Turner, Antoine Verrelle, Benoît Vié, Florian Visentin, Vincent Vionnet, and Philippe Wautelet
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1929–1969, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1929-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1929-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the Meso-NH model version 5.4, which is an atmospheric non-hydrostatic research model that is applied on synoptic to turbulent scales. The model includes advanced numerical techniques and state-of-the-art physics parameterization schemes. It has been expanded to provide capabilities for a range of Earth system prediction applications such as chemistry and aerosols, electricity and lightning, hydrology, wildland fires, volcanic eruptions, and cyclones with ocean coupling.
Christopher R. Yost, Kristopher M. Bedka, Patrick Minnis, Louis Nguyen, J. Walter Strapp, Rabindra Palikonda, Konstantin Khlopenkov, Douglas Spangenberg, William L. Smith Jr., Alain Protat, and Julien Delanoe
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 1615–1637, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1615-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1615-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Accretion of cloud ice particles upon engine or instrument probe surfaces can cause engine malfunction or even power loss, and therefore it is important for aircraft to avoid flight through clouds that may have produced large quantities of ice particles. This study introduces a method by which potentially hazardous conditions can be detected using satellite imagery. It was found that potentially hazardous conditions were often located near or beneath very cold clouds and thunderstorm updrafts.
Javier Andrey-Andrés, Nadia Fourrié, Vincent Guidard, Raymond Armante, Pascal Brunel, Cyril Crevoisier, and Bernard Tournier
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 803–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-803-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-803-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A new generation of the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) sounders, whose highly accurate measurements are commonly used in environment applications, has already been designed: IASI New Generation (IASI-NG). A database of IASI and IASI-NG simulated observations was built to set a common framework for future impact studies. This first study showed the IASI-NG benefit with an improvement of the temperature retrievals throughout the atmosphere and a lower benefit for the humidity.
Aurore Voldoire, Bertrand Decharme, Joris Pianezze, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Florence Sevault, Léo Seyfried, Valérie Garnier, Soline Bielli, Sophie Valcke, Antoinette Alias, Mickael Accensi, Fabrice Ardhuin, Marie-Noëlle Bouin, Véronique Ducrocq, Stéphanie Faroux, Hervé Giordani, Fabien Léger, Patrick Marsaleix, Romain Rainaud, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Evelyne Richard, and Sébastien Riette
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4207–4227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4207-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4207-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the principles of the new coupling interface based on the SURFEX multi-surface model and the OASIS3-MCT coupler. As SURFEX can be plugged into several atmospheric models, it can be used in a wide range of applications. The objective of this development is to build and share a common structure for the atmosphere–surface coupling of all these applications, involving on the one hand atmospheric models and on the other hand ocean, ice, hydrology, and wave models.
Guillaume Mioche, Olivier Jourdan, Julien Delanoë, Christophe Gourbeyre, Guy Febvre, Régis Dupuy, Marie Monier, Frédéric Szczap, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, and Jean-François Gayet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12845–12869, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12845-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12845-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is a study about the mixed-phase clouds frequently occurring in the Arctic region. It is based on airborne measurements and highlights the microphysical properties of these particular clouds composed of liquid droplets at cloud top and ice crystals below precipitating down to the surface. This work may help to improve the representation of the mixed-phase clouds in numerical prediction models as well as the retrieval of their properties from remote sensing observations.
Francesco De Angelis, Domenico Cimini, Ulrich Löhnert, Olivier Caumont, Alexander Haefele, Bernhard Pospichal, Pauline Martinet, Francisco Navas-Guzmán, Henk Klein-Baltink, Jean-Charles Dupont, and James Hocking
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 3947–3961, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-3947-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-3947-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Modern data assimilation systems require knowledge of the typical differences between observations and model background (O–B). This work illustrates a 1-year O–B analysis for ground-based microwave radiometer (MWR) observations in clear-sky conditions for a prototype network of six MWRs in Europe. Observations are MWR brightness temperatures (TB). Background profiles extracted from the output of a convective-scale model are used to simulate TB through the radiative transfer model RTTOV-gb.
Jean-Christophe Raut, Louis Marelle, Jerome D. Fast, Jennie L. Thomas, Bernadett Weinzierl, Katharine S. Law, Larry K. Berg, Anke Roiger, Richard C. Easter, Katharina Heimerl, Tatsuo Onishi, Julien Delanoë, and Hans Schlager
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10969–10995, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10969-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10969-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We study the cross-polar transport of plumes from Siberian fires to the Arctic in summer, both in terms of transport pathways and efficiency of deposition processes. Those plumes containing soot may originate from anthropogenic and biomass burning sources in mid-latitude regions and may impact the Arctic climate by depositing on snow and ice surfaces. We evaluate the role of the respective source contributions, investigate the transport of plumes and treat pathway-dependent removal of particles.
Eivind G. Wærsted, Martial Haeffelin, Jean-Charles Dupont, Julien Delanoë, and Philippe Dubuisson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10811–10835, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10811-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10811-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Heating and cooling of fog layers by solar and terrestrial radiation influence the fog life cycle. We quantify these radiative impacts on fog liquid water using detailed cloud radar observations of seven fog events as well as sensitivity studies. We find that the impact of radiation is affected mainly by fog optical thickness, atmospheric humidity and the presence of clouds above the fog. Observing these quantities in real time can therefore be useful for forecasting fog dissipation.
N. Fourrié, É. Bresson, M. Nuret, C. Jany, P. Brousseau, A. Doerenbecher, M. Kreitz, O. Nuissier, E. Sevault, H. Bénichou, M. Amodei, and F. Pouponneau
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1919–1941, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1919-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1919-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
To support the instrument deployment during HyMeX, aiming at studying the high precipitation in the Mediterranean area, a dedicated version of the operational convective-scale AROME-France model was developed: the AROME-WMED model. This paper presents the main features of this numerical weather prediction system in terms of data assimilation and forecast. The forecast skill of the model is then assessed during the HyMeX special observation periods and compared to the operational AROME-France.
A. Hally, O. Caumont, L. Garrote, E. Richard, A. Weerts, F. Delogu, E. Fiori, N. Rebora, A. Parodi, A. Mihalović, M. Ivković, L. Dekić, W. van Verseveld, O. Nuissier, V. Ducrocq, D. D'Agostino, A. Galizia, E. Danovaro, and A. Clematis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 537–555, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-537-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-537-2015, 2015
G. Mioche, O. Jourdan, M. Ceccaldi, and J. Delanoë
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2445–2461, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2445-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2445-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents a characterization of the vertical, spatial and seasonal variability of Arctic clouds and mixed-phase clouds (MPCs) over the entire Arctic region. MPC properties in the region of the Svalbard archipelago (78°N, 15°E) are also investigated. The occurrence frequency of clouds and MPCs are determined from CALIPSO/CLOUDSAT measurements processed with the DARDAR retrieval algorithm which allows for a reliable cloud thermodynamic phase classification.
E. Defer, J.-P. Pinty, S. Coquillat, J.-M. Martin, S. Prieur, S. Soula, E. Richard, W. Rison, P. Krehbiel, R. Thomas, D. Rodeheffer, C. Vergeiner, F. Malaterre, S. Pedeboy, W. Schulz, T. Farges, L.-J. Gallin, P. Ortéga, J.-F. Ribaud, G. Anderson, H.-D. Betz, B. Meneux, V. Kotroni, K. Lagouvardos, S. Roos, V. Ducrocq, O. Roussot, L. Labatut, and G. Molinié
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 649–669, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-649-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-649-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The paper summarizes the scientific objectives and the observational/modeling strategy of the atmospheric electricity PEACH project of the HyMeX program focusing on the lightning activity and the electrical state of Mediterranean thunderstorms. Examples of concurrent observations from radio frequency to acoustic for regular and atypical lightning flashes and for storms are discussed, showing the unique and comprehensive description of lightning flashes recorded during a dedicated field campaign.
E. Fontaine, A. Schwarzenboeck, J. Delanoë, W. Wobrock, D. Leroy, R. Dupuy, C. Gourbeyre, and A. Protat
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11367–11392, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11367-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11367-2014, 2014
A. Hally, E. Richard, and V. Ducrocq
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1071–1084, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1071-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1071-2014, 2014
H. Brenot, A. Walpersdorf, M. Reverdy, J. van Baelen, V. Ducrocq, C. Champollion, F. Masson, E. Doerflinger, P. Collard, and P. Giroux
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 553–578, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-553-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-553-2014, 2014
C. Jouan, J. Pelon, E. Girard, G. Ancellet, J. P. Blanchet, and J. Delanoë
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1205–1224, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1205-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1205-2014, 2014
J.-F. Gayet, V. Shcherbakov, L. Bugliaro, A. Protat, J. Delanoë, J. Pelon, and A. Garnier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 899–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-899-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-899-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Evaluation of machine learning approaches for large-scale agricultural drought forecasts to improve monitoring and preparedness in Brazil
Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling strength over central Europe in the recent warming climate
A data-driven framework for assessing climatic impact drivers in the context of food security
Soil conditioner mixtures as an agricultural management alternative to mitigate drought impacts: a proof of concept
Compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation
Probabilistic hazard analysis of the gas emission of Mefite d'Ansanto, southern Italy
Are heavy-rainfall events a major trigger of associated natural hazards along the German rail network?
Brief communication: Forecasting extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers in New Zealand
The record-breaking precipitation event of December 2022 in Portugal
Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies
Assimilation of temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
The anomalously thundery month of June 1925 in southwest Spain: description and synoptic analysis
Spatial identification of regions exposed to multi-hazards at the pan-European level
Classification of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones using multiple measures of intensity
Subseasonal forecasts of heat waves in West African cities
Impacts on and damage to European forests from the 2018–2022 heat and drought events
Brief communication: Training of AI-based nowcasting models for rainfall early warning should take into account user requirements
Examining the Eastern European extreme summer temperatures of 2023 from a long-term perspective: the role of natural variability vs. anthropogenic factors
How well are hazards associated with derechos reproduced in regional climate simulations?
Reconstructing hail days in Switzerland with statistical models (1959–2022)
Exploring the interplay between observed warming, atmospheric circulation, and soil-atmosphere feedbacks on heatwaves in a temperate mountain region
Classifying extratropical cyclones and their impact on Finland’s electricity grid: Insights from 92 damaging windstorms
GTDI: a game-theory-based integrated drought index implying hazard-causing and hazard-bearing impact change
Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms?
Intense rains in Israel associated with the train effect
Review article: The growth in compound weather events research in the decade since SREX
Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia
Impact-based temporal clustering of multiple meteorological hazard types in southwestern Germany
On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation through citizen science
Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data
Exploring the sensitivity of extreme event attribution of two recent extreme weather events in Sweden using long-running meteorological observations
Probabilistic short-range forecasts of high-precipitation events: optimal decision thresholds and predictability limits
The miscellaneous synoptic forcings in the four-day widespread extreme rainfall event over North China in July 2023
Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters
Modelling crop hail damage footprints with single-polarization radar: the roles of spatial resolution, hail intensity, and cropland density
Insights into ground strike point properties in Europe through the EUCLID lightning location system
The role of citizen science in assessing the spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall events in urban areas: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy
Precipitation extremes in Ukraine from 1979 to 2019: climatology, large-scale flow conditions, and moisture sources
Characterizing hail-prone environments using convection-permitting reanalysis and overshooting top detections over south-central Europe
Aircraft engine dust ingestion at global airports
Catchment-scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
The risk of synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones to shipping
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Climatic characteristics of the Jianghuai cyclone and its linkage with precipitation during the Meiyu period from 1961 to 2020
Temporal dynamic vulnerability – Impact of antecedent events on residential building losses to wind storm events in Germany
Verifying the relationships among the variabilities of summer precipitation extremes over western Japan in the d4PDF climate ensemble, monsoon activity, and Pacific sea surface temperature
An appraisal of the value of simulated weather data for quantifying coastal flood hazard in the Netherlands
The usefulness of Extended-Range Probabilistic Forecasts for Heat wave forecasts in Europe
Application of the teaching–learning-based optimization algorithm to an analytical model of thunderstorm outflows to analyze the variability of the downburst kinematic and geometric parameters
Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate
Joseph W. Gallear, Marcelo Valadares Galdos, Marcelo Zeri, and Andrew Hartley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1521–1541, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1521-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1521-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In Brazil, drought is of national concern and can have major consequences for agriculture. Here, we determine how to develop forecasts for drought stress on vegetation health using machine learning. Results aim to inform future developments in operational drought monitoring at the National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN) in Brazil. This information is essential for disaster preparedness and planning of future actions to support areas affected by drought.
Thomas Schwitalla, Lisa Jach, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Kirsten Warrach-Sagi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1405–1424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1405-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1405-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
During recent decades, Europe has experienced increasing periods of severe drought and heatwave. To provide an overview of how land-surface conditions shape land–atmosphere (LA) coupling, the interannual LA coupling strength variability for the summer seasons of 1991–2022 is investigated by means of ERA5 data. The results clearly reflect ongoing climate change by a shift in the coupling relationships towards reinforced heating and drying by the land surface.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Roberto Fray Silva, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Antonio Mauro Saraiva, Alexandre Cláudio Botazzo Delbem, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antonio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1387–1404, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1387-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1387-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study applies climate extreme indices to assess climate risks to food security. Using an explainable machine learning analysis, key climate indices affecting maize and soybean yields in Brazil were identified. Results reveal the temporal sensitivity of these indices and critical yield loss thresholds, informing policy and adaptation strategies.
Juan F. Dueñas, Edda Kunze, Huiying Li, and Matthias C. Rillig
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1377–1386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1377-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1377-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the potential of adding mixtures composed of minimum dosages of several popular amendment types to soil. Our goal was to increase the resistance of agricultural soil to drought stress. We found that adding mixtures of three to five amendment types increased the capacity of soil to retain water, reduced soil erosion, and increased fungal abundance while buffering soil from drastic changes in pH. More research is encouraged to validate this approach.
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 843–856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our aim is to characterize the observed evolution of compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system. The frequency of compound events exhibits a decrease over the 1950–2022 period, which is likely due to a decrease in cold days. Large-scale atmospheric circulation is an important driver of compound event occurrence and has likely contributed to the decrease in cold days, while we cannot draw conclusions on its influence on the decrease in compound events.
Fabio Dioguardi, Giovanni Chiodini, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 657–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present results of non-volcanic-gas (CO2) hazard assessment at the Mefite d’Ansanto area (Italy) where a cold-gas stream, which has already been lethal to humans and animals, forms in the valleys surrounding the emission zone. We took the uncertainty related to the gas emission and meteorological conditions into account. Results include maps of CO2 concentrations at defined probability levels and the probability of overcoming specified CO2 concentrations over specified time intervals.
Sonja Szymczak, Frederick Bott, Vigile Marie Fabella, and Katharina Fricke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 683–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the correlation between heavy-rainfall events and three associated natural hazards along the German rail network using GIS analyses and random-effects logistic models. The results show that 23 % of floods, 14 % of gravitational mass movements, and 2 % of tree fall events between 2017 and 2020 occurred after a heavy-rainfall event, and the probability of occurrence of flood and tree fall events significantly increased. This study contributes to more resilient rail transport.
Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 675–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall comprises a major hydrohazard for New Zealand and is commonly associated with atmospheric rivers – narrow plumes of very high atmospheric moisture transport. Here, we focus on improved forecasting of these events by testing a forecasting tool previously applied to similar situations in western Europe. However, our results for New Zealand suggest the performance of this forecasting tool may vary depending on geographical setting.
Tiago M. Ferreira, Ricardo M. Trigo, Tomás H. Gaspar, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 609–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the synoptic evolution associated with the occurrence of an atmospheric river that led to a 24 h record-breaking extreme precipitation event (120.3 mm) in Lisbon, Portugal, on 13 December 2022. The synoptic background allowed the formation, on 10 December, of an atmospheric river associated with a deep extratropical cyclone and with a high moisture content and an inflow of moisture, due to the warm conveyor belt, throughout its life cycle. The system made landfall on 12 December.
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim G. Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 541–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Europe frequently experiences compound events, with major impacts. We investigate these events’ interactions, characteristics, and changes over time, focusing on socio-economic impacts in Germany and central Europe. Highlighting 2018’s extreme events, this study reveals impacts on water, agriculture, and forests and stresses the need for impact-focused definitions and better future risk quantification to support adaptation planning.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The use of numerical weather prediction models enables the forecasting of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated in this study. This leads to the improvement of the associated near-surface variables of the model during the first hours of the forecast. Examples are provided for a sea breeze case during a heatwave and a fog episode.
Francisco Javier Acero, Manuel Antón, Alejandro Jesús Pérez Aparicio, Nieves Bravo-Paredes, Víctor Manuel Sánchez Carrasco, María Cruz Gallego, José Agustín García, Marcelino Núñez, Irene Tovar, Javier Vaquero-Martínez, and José Manuel Vaquero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 305–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The month of June 1925 was found to be exceptional in the southwest interior of the Iberian Peninsula due to the large number of thunderstorms and their significant impacts, with serious losses of human lives and material resources. We analyzed this event from different, complementary perspectives: reconstruction of the history of the events from newspapers, study of monthly meteorological variables of the longest series available, and the analysis of the meteorological synoptic situation.
Tiberiu-Eugen Antofie, Stefano Luoni, Aloïs Tilloy, Andrea Sibilia, Sandro Salari, Gustav Eklund, Davide Rodomonti, Christos Bountzouklis, and Christina Corbane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 287–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This is the first study that uses spatial patterns (clusters/hotspots) and meta-analysis in order to identify the regions at a European level at risk of multi-hazards. The findings point out the socioeconomic dimension as a determining factor in the potential risk of multi-hazards. The outcome provides valuable input for the disaster risk management policy support and will assist national authorities on the implementation of a multi-hazard approach in national risk assessment preparation.
Joona Cornér, Clément Bouvier, Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 207–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Classification reduces the considerable variability between extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and thus simplifies studying their representation in climate models and changes in the future climate. In this paper we present an objective classification of ETCs using measures of ETC intensity. This is motivated by the aim of finding a set of ETC intensity measures which together comprehensively describe both the dynamical and impact-relevant nature of ETC intensity.
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The present study addresses the predictability of heat waves at subseasonal timescales in West African cities over the period 2001–2020. Two models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office models, were evaluated using two reanalyses: ERA5 and MERRA. The results suggest that at subseasonal timescales, the forecast models provide a better forecast than climatology, but the hit rate and false alarm rate are sub-optimal.
Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Mortimer M. Müller, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Sarah Veit, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 77–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research, involving 22 European scientists, investigated drought and heat impacts on forests in 2018–2022. Findings reveal that climate extremes are intensifying, with central Europe being most severely impacted. The southern region showed resilience due to historical drought exposure, while northern and Alpine areas experienced emerging or minimal impacts. The study highlights the need for region-specific strategies, improved data collection, and sustainable practices to safeguard forests.
Georgy Ayzel and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 41–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting rainfall over the next hour is an essential feature of early warning systems. Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a powerful alternative to conventional nowcasting technologies, but it still struggles to adequately predict impact-relevant heavy rainfall. We think that DL could do much better if the training tasks were defined more specifically and that such specification presents an opportunity to better align the output of nowcasting models with actual user requirements.
Monica Ionita, Petru Vaideanu, Bogdan Antonescu, Catalin Roibu, Qiyun Ma, and Viorica Nagavciuc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4683–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Eastern Europe's heat wave history is explored from 1885 to 2023, with a focus on pre-1960 events. The study reveals two periods with more frequent and intense heat waves (HWs): 1920s–1960s and 1980s–present. The research highlights the importance of a long-term perspective, revealing that extreme heat events have occurred throughout the entire study period, and it emphasizes the combined influence of climate change and natural variations on increasing HW severity.
Tristan Shepherd, Frederick Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4473–4505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A historic derecho in the USA is presented. The 29 June 2012 derecho caused more than 20 deaths and millions of US dollars of damage. We use a regional climate model to understand how model fidelity changes under different initial conditions. We find changes drive different convective conditions, resulting in large variation in the simulated hazards. The variation using different reanalysis data shows that framing these results in the context of contemporary and future climate is a challenge.
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3869–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past hail days in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new time series reveals a significant increase in hail day occurrences over the last 7 decades. We link this trend to increases in moisture and instability variables in the models. This time series can now be used to unravel the complexities of Swiss hail occurrence and to understand what drives its year-to-year variability.
Marc Lemus-Canovas, Sergi Gonzalez-Herrero, Laura Trapero, Anna Albalat, Damian Insua-Costa, Martin Senande-Rivera, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-192, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-192, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the 2022 heatwaves in the Pyrenees, examining the factors that contributed to their intensity and distribution. The June event was driven by strong winds that created uneven temperature patterns, while the July heatwave featured calmer conditions and more uniform temperatures. Human-driven climate change has made these heatwaves more severe compared to the past. This research helps us better understand how climate change affects extreme weather in mountainous regions.
Ilona Láng-Ritter, Terhi Kristiina Laurila, Antti Mäkelä, Hilppa Gregow, and VIctoria Anne SInclair
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3019, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3019, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a classification method for extratropical cyclones and windstorms and show their impacts on Finland's electricity grid by analysing 92 most damaging windstorms (2005–2018). The southwest- and northwest-originating windstorms cause the most damage to the power grid. The most relevant parameters for damage are the wind gust speed and extent of wind gusts. Windstorms are more frequent and damaging in autumn and winter, but weaker wind speeds in summer also cause significant damage.
Xiaowei Zhao, Tianzeng Yang, Hongbo Zhang, Tian Lan, Chaowei Xue, Tongfang Li, Zhaoxia Ye, Zhifang Yang, and Yurou Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3479–3495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To effectively track and identify droughts, we developed a novel integrated drought index that combines the effects of precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture on drought. After comparison and verification, the integrated drought index shows superior performance compared to a single meteorological drought index or agricultural drought index in terms of drought identification.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological loss index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high-impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3267–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The train effect is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall and sometimes floods and are reported in North America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains associated with Cyprus lows were identified by radar images and were found within the cold sector south of the low center and in the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km; last 1–3 h; and yield 35 mm of rainfall up to 60 mm.
Lou Brett, Christopher J. White, Daniela I.V. Domeisen, Bart van den Hurk, Philip Ward, and Jakob Zscheischler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Compound events, where multiple weather or climate hazards occur together, pose significant risks to both society and the environment. These events, like simultaneous wind and rain, can have more severe impacts than single hazards. Our review of compound event research from 2012–2022 reveals a rise in studies, especially on events that occur concurrently, hot and dry events and compounding flooding. The review also highlights opportunities for research in the coming years.
Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A computer model that simulates the climate of southeastern Australia is shown here to represent extreme wind events associated with convective storms. This is useful as it allows us to investigate possible future changes in the occurrences of these events, and we find in the year 2050 that our model simulates a decrease in the number of occurrences. However, the model also simulates too many events in the historical climate compared with observations, so these future changes are uncertain.
Katharina Küpfer, Alexandre Tuel, and Michael Kunz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using loss data, we assess when and how single and multiple types of meteorological extremes (river floods and heavy rainfall events, windstorms and convective gusts, and hail). We find that the combination of several types of hazards clusters robustly on a seasonal scale, whereas only some single hazard types occur in clusters. This can be associated with higher losses compared to isolated events. We argue for the relevance of jointly considering multiple types of hazards.
Hofit Shachaf, Colin Price, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Cliff Mass
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3035–3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have used the temperature and relative humidity sensors in smartphones to estimate the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an important atmospheric parameter closely linked to fuel moisture and wildfire risk. Our analysis for two severe wildfire case studies in Israel and Portugal shows the potential for using smartphone data to compliment the regular weather station network while also providing high spatial resolution of the VPD index.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2939–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Associating extreme weather events with changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored two ways these relationships can be investigated: one using a more common method and one relying solely on long-running records of meteorological observations.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2793–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called ensemble prediction. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity and space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitation.
Jinfang Yin, Feng Li, Mingxin Li, Rudi Xia, Xinghua Bao, Jisong Sun, and Xudong Liang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-145, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
A persistent severe rainfall event occurred over North China in July 2023, which was regarded as one of the precipitation extremes of 2023 globally. The extreme rainfall was significant underestimated by forecasters at that time. Flooding from this event affected 1.3 million people, causing severe human casualties and significant economic losses. In this study, we examined the convective initiation and subsequent persistent heavy rainfall over North China based on simulations with the WRF model.
Joy Ommer, Jessica Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed to be beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe-weather forecasts and warnings need to advance in order to trigger our imagination of what might happen and enable us to start preparing.
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2541–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents an open-source model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops and grapevines after hailstorms in Switzerland based on radar, agricultural land use data, and insurance damage reports. The model performs best at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevine and in the main production areas. Highlighting performance trade-offs and the relevance of user needs, the study is a first step towards the assessment of risk and damage for crops in Switzerland.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2511–2522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
EUCLID's lightning data unveil distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. The daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
Nicola Loglisci, Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2495–2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the meteo-hydrological features of the 27 and 28 August 2023 event that occurred in Genoa. Rainfall observations were made using rain gauge networks based on either official networks or citizen science networks. The merged analysis stresses the spatial variability in the precipitation, which cannot be captured by the current spatial density of authoritative stations. Results show that at minimal distances the variations in cumulated rainfall over a sub-hourly duration are significant.
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2441–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptic analysis.
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2331–2357, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports is tested and presented. Hail likelihood peaks in mid-summer at 15:00 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to previous estimates. By separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large-hail occurrence is found.
Claire L. Ryder, Clément Bézier, Helen F. Dacre, Rory Clarkson, Vassilis Amiridis, Eleni Marinou, Emmanouil Proestakis, Zak Kipling, Angela Benedetti, Mark Parrington, Samuel Rémy, and Mark Vaughan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2263–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Desert dust poses a hazard to aircraft via degradation of engine components. This has financial implications for the aviation industry and results in increased fuel burn with climate impacts. Here we quantify dust ingestion by aircraft engines at airports worldwide. We find Dubai and Delhi in summer are among the dustiest airports, where substantial engine degradation would occur after 1000 flights. Dust ingestion can be reduced by changing take-off times and the altitude of holding patterns.
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2191–2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression and range of variability analysis are used to determine the drought severity and times where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using indicators of hydrological alterations). Moreover, this study also examines the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought using the hydrological alteration factor.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data were disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Ran Zhu and Lei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1937–1950, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
There is a positive correlation between the frequency of Jianghuai cyclone activity and precipitation during the Meiyu period. Its occurrence frequency has an obvious decadal variation, which corresponds well with the quasi-periodic and decadal variation in precipitation during the Meiyu period. This study provides a reference for the long-term and short-term forecasting of precipitation during the Meiyu period.
Andreas Trojand, Henning Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1506, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study investigates how the intensity of previous windstorm events and the time between two events affect the vulnerability of residential buildings in Germany. By analyzing 23 years of data, it was found that higher intensity of previous events generally reduces vulnerability in subsequent storms, while shorter intervals between events increase vulnerability. The results emphasize the approach of considering vulnerability in risk assessments as temporal dynamic.
Shao-Yi Lee, Sicheng He, and Tetsuya Takemi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1304, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Summer rainfall extremes over western Japan were calculated every year, using radar, rain-gauges, and model. Similar regions were determined by machine learning. The relationships between regional rainfall extremes and Pacific climate modes. The modelled relationships were similar to the observed ones for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the warming trend. However, the model did not reproduce the relationship for Pacific Decadal Variability.
Cees de Valk and Henk van den Brink
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-912, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-912, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recently updated flood safety norms in the Netherlands prescribe that sea dikes and other flood-protecting structures should withstand high sea levels reached very rarely, locally down to only once in 10 million years. We show that such levels can be estimated with reasonable accuracy by the cautious use of very large datasets of numerical simulations of weather and storm surge.
Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Virpi Kollanus, Timo Lanki, Juha Jokisalo, Risto Kosonen, David S. Richardson, and Kirsti Jylhä
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-75, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-75, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The skill of hindcasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in forecasting heat wave days (periods with the 5-day moving average temperature being above its local summer 90th percentile) over Europe 1 to 4 weeks ahead is examined. The heat wave days forecasts show potential in warning of heat risk in 1–2 weeks in advance, and enhanced accuracy in forecasting prolonged heat waves, in lead times of up to 3 weeks, when the heat wave had initiated prior to the forecast issuance.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1657–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1555–1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We combine climate projections from 30 climate models with a climate risk model to project winter windstorm damages in Europe under climate change. We study the uncertainty and sensitivity factors related to the modelling of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. We emphasize high uncertainties in the damage projections, with climate models primarily driving the uncertainty. We find climate change reshapes future European windstorm risk by altering damage locations and intensity.
Cited articles
Baker, W. E., Atlas, R., Cardinali, C., Clement, A., Emmitt, G. D., Gentry,
B. M., Hardesty, R. M., Källén, E., Kavaya, M. J., Langland, R., Ma,
Z., Masutani, M., McCarty, W., Pierce, R. B., Pu, Z., Riishojgaard, L. P.,
Ryan, J., Tucker, S., Weissmann, M., and Yoe, J. G.: Lidar-Measured Wind
Profiles: The Missing Link in the Global Observing System, B.
Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95, 543–564,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00164.1, 2014. a
Benjamin, S. G., Schwartz, B. E., Szoke, E. J., and Koch, S. E.: The Value
of
Wind Profiler Data in U.S. Weather Forecasting, B. Am.
Meteorol. Soc., 85, 1871–1886, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-85-12-1871,
2004. a
Borderies, M., Caumont, O., Augros, C., Bresson, É., Delanoë, J.,
Ducrocq, V., Fourrié, N., Le Bastard, T., and Nuret, M.: Simulation of
W-band radar reflectivity for model validation and data assimilation,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 144, 391–403,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3210, 2018. a
Bosart, B. L., Lee, W.-C., and Wakimoto, R. M.: Procedures to improve the
accuracy of airborne Doppler radar data, J. Atmos. Ocean.
Tech., 19, 322–339, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426-19.3.322, 2002. a
Bouniol, D., Protat, A., Plana-Fattori, A., Giraud, M., Vinson, J.-P., and
Grand, N.: Comparison of Airborne and Spaceborne 95-GHz Radar
Reflectivities and Evaluation of Multiple Scattering Effects in
Spaceborne Measurements, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech.,
25, 1983–1995, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008jtecha1011.1, 2008. a
Bousquet, O., Delanoë, J., and Bielli, S.: Evaluation of 3D wind
observations inferred from the analysis of airborne and ground-based radars
during HyMeX SOP-1, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
142, 86–94, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2710, 2016. a, b, c, d
Brousseau, P., Berre, L., Bouttier, F., and Desroziers, G.: Background-error
covariances for a convective-scale data-assimilation system: AROME-France
3D-Var, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137,
409–422, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.750,
2011. a
Brousseau, P., Seity, Y., Ricard, D., and Léger, J.: Improvement of the
forecast of convective activity from the AROME-France system, Q.
J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 2231–2243,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2822,
2016. a, b
Caumont, O., Ducrocq, V., Wattrelot, É., Jaubert, G., and Pradier-Vabre,
S.: 1D+3DVar assimilation of radar reflectivity data: a proof of concept,
Tellus A, 62, 173–187, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2009.00430.x, 2010. a
Deb, S., Kishtawal, C., Kumar, P., Kumar, A. K., Pal, P., Kaushik, N., and
Sangar, G.: Atmospheric Motion Vectors from INSAT-3D: Initial quality
assessment and its impact on track forecast of cyclonic storm NANAUK,
Atmos. Res., 169, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.09.010, 2016. a
Delanoë, J., Protat, A., Jourdan, O., Pelon, J., Papazzoni, M., Dupuy,
R.,
Gayet, J.-F., and Jouan, C.: Comparison of Airborne In Situ, Airborne
Radar–Lidar, and Spaceborne Radar–Lidar Retrievals of Polar
Ice Cloud Properties Sampled during the POLARCAT Campaign,
J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 30, 57–73,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-11-00200.1, 2013. a
Drobinski, P., Ducrocq, V., Alpert, P., Anagnostou, E., Béranger, K.,
Borga, M., Braud, I., Chanzy, A., Davolio, S., Delrieu, G., Estournel, C.,
Boubrahmi, N. F., Font, J., Grubišic, V., Gualdi, S., Homar, V.,
Ivancan-Picek, B., Kottmeier, C., Kotroni, V., Lagouvardos, K., Lionello, P.,
Llasat, M. C., Ludwig, W., Lutoff, C., Mariotti, A., Richard, E., Romero, R.,
Rotunno, R., Roussot, O., Ruin, I., Somot, S., Taupier-Letage, I., Tintore,
J., Uijlenhoet, R., and Wernli, H.: HyMeX: A 10-year multidisciplinary
program on the Mediterranean water cycle, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95,
1063–1082,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00242.1, 2014. a
Ducrocq, V., Braud, I., Davolio, S., Ferretti, R., Flamant, C., Jansa, A.,
Kalthoff, N., Richard, E., Taupier-Letage, I., Ayral, P., Belamari, S.,
Berne, A., Borga, M., Boudevillain, B., Bock, O., Boichard, J., Bouin, M.,
Bousquet, O., Bouvier, C., Chiggiato, J., Cimini, D., Corsmeier, U., Coppola,
L., Cocquerez, P., Defer, E., Delanoë, J., Di Girolamo, P., Doerenbecher,
A., Drobinski, P., Dufournet, Y., Fourrié, N., Gourley, J. J., Labatut, L.,
Lambert, D., Le Coz, J., Marzano, F. S., Molinié, G., Montani, A., Nord,
G., Nuret, M., Ramage, K., Rison, W., Roussot, O., Said, F., Schwarzenboeck,
A., Testor, P., Van Baelen, J., Vincendon, B., Aran, M., and Tamayo, J.:
HyMeX-SOP1: The field campaign dedicated to heavy precipitation and flash
flooding in the northwestern Mediterranean, B. Am.
Meteorol. Soc., 95, 1083–1100, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00244.1, 2014. a, b, c, d
Duffourg, F., Nuissier, O., Ducrocq, V., Flamant, C., Chazette, P.,
Delanoë, J., Doerenbecher, A., Fourrié, N., Di Girolamo, P., Lac, C.,
Legain, D., Martinet, M., Saïd, F., and Bock, O.: Offshore deep
convection initiation and maintenance during the HyMeX
IOP 16a heavy precipitation event, Q. J. Roy.
Meteor. Soc., 142, 259–274, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2725, 2016. a
Efron, B. and Tibshirani, R. J.: An Introduction to the Bootstrap, Chapman
& Hall/CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL, ISBN 9780412042317, 456 pp., 1994. a
Fischer, C., Montmerle, T., Berre, L., Auger, L., and Ştefănescu,
S. E.: An overview of the variational assimilation in the ALADIN/France
numerical weather-prediction system, Q. J. Roy.
Meteor. Soc., 131, 3477–3492, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.05.115, 2005. a
Fourrié, N., Bresson, é., Nuret, M., Jany, C., Brousseau, P.,
Doerenbecher, A., Kreitz, M., Nuissier, O., Sevault, E., Bénichou, H.,
Amodei, M., and Pouponneau, F.: AROME-WMED, a real-time mesoscale model
designed for the HyMeX special observation periods, Geosci. Model Dev., 8,
1919–1941, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1919-2015, 2015. a, b
Hally, A., Richard, E., and Ducrocq, V.: An ensemble study of HyMeX IOP6 and
IOP7a: sensitivity to physical and initial and boundary condition
uncertainties, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1071–1084,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1071-2014, 2014. a, b
Horányi, A., Cardinali, C., Rennie, M., and Isaksen, L.: The
assimilation
of horizontal line-of-sight wind information into the ECMWF data assimilation
and forecasting system. Part I: The assessment of wind impact, Q.
J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 1223–1232,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2430, 2015. a
Illingworth, A., Battaglia, A., Bradford, J., Forsythe, M., Joe, P., Kollias,
P., Lean, K., Lori, M., Mahfouf, J.-F., Mello, S., Midthassel, R., Munro, Y.,
Nicol, J., Potthast, R., Rennie, M., Stein, T., Tanelli, S., Tridon, F.,
Walden, C., and Wolde, M.: WIVERN: A new satellite concept to provide global
in-cloud winds, precipitation and cloud properties, B.
Am. Meteorol. Soc., 99, 1669–1687,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0047.1, 2018. a
Illingworth, A. J., Barker, H. W., Beljaars, A., Ceccaldi, M., Chepfer, H.,
Clerbaux, N., Cole, J., Delanoë, J., Domenech, C., Donovan, D. P.,
Fukuda, S., Hirakata, M., Hogan, R. J., Huenerbein, A., Kollias, P., Kubota,
T., Nakajima, T., Nakajima, T. Y., Nishizawa, T., Ohno, Y., Okamoto, H., Oki,
R., Sato, K., Satoh, M., Shephard, M. W., Velázquez-Blázquez, A.,
Wandinger, U., Wehr, T., and van Zadelhoff, G.: The EarthCARE Satellite: The
Next Step Forward in Global
Measurements of Clouds, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Radiation, B.
Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 1311–1332,
https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-12-00227.1,
2015a. a
Illingworth, A. J., Cimini, D., Gaffard, C., Haeffelin, M., Lehmann, V.,
Löhnert, U., O'Connor, E. J., and Ruffieux, D.: Exploiting existing
ground-based remote sensing networks to improve high-resolution weather
forecasts, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 2107–2125,
https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-13-00283.1,
2015b. a
Janisková, M.: Assimilation of cloud information from space-borne radar
and
lidar: experimental study using a 1D+4D-Var technique, Q. J. Roy. Meteor.
Soc., 141, 2708–2725, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2558, 2015. a
Kawabata, T., Seko, H., Saito, K., Kuroda, T., Tamiya, K., Tsuyuki, T.,
Honda,
Y., and Wakazuki, Y.: An Assimilation and Forecasting Experiment of the
Nerima Heavy Rainfa11 with a Cloud-Resolving Nonhydrostatic 4-Dimensional
Variational Data Assimilation System, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 85, 255–276,
https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.85.255, 2007. a
Kawabata, T., Iwai, H., Seko, H., Shoji, Y., Saito, K., Ishii, S., and
Mizutani, K.: Cloud-Resolving 4D-Var Assimilation of Doppler Wind Lidar Data
on a Meso-Gamma-Scale Convective System, Mon. Weather Rev., 142,
4484–4498, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00362.1, 2014. a
Kumar, P., Deb, S. K., Kishtawal, C., and Pal, P.: Impact of assimilation of
INSAT-3D retrieved atmospheric motion vectors on short-range forecast of
summer monsoon 2014 over the south Asian region, Theor. Appl.
Climatol., 128, 575–586, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1722-5, 2017. a
Li, Z., Pu, Z., Sun, J., and Lee, W.-C.: Impacts of 4DVAR assimilation of
airborne Doppler radar observations on numerical simulations of the genesis
of Typhoon Nuri (2008), J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 53,
2325–2343, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0046.1, 2014. a
Martinet, M., Nuissier, O., Duffourg, F., Ducrocq, V., and Ricard, D.:
Fine-scale numerical analysis of the sensitivity of the HyMeX IOP16a heavy
precipitating event to the turbulent mixing-length parametrization,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 143, 3122–3135,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3167, 2017. a
Montmerle, T. and Faccani, C.: Mesoscale assimilation of radial velocities
from Doppler radars in a preoperational framework, Mon. Weather Rev.,
137, 1939–1953, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2725.1, 2009. a
Pinty, J. and Jabouille, P.: A mixed-phase cloud parameterization for use in
mesoscale non-hydrostatic model: simulations of a squall line and of
orographic precipitations, in: Conf. on Cloud Physics, 217–220, Amer.
Meteor. Soc Everett, WA, 1998. a
Protat, A., Bouniol, D., Delanoë, J., O'Connor, E., May, P.,
Plana-Fattori,
A., Hasson, A., Görsdorf, U., and Heymsfield, A.: Assessment of CloudSat
reflectivity measurements and ice cloud properties using ground-based and
airborne cloud radar observations, J. Atmos. Ocean.
Tech., 26, 1717–1741, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JTECHA1246.1, 2009. a
Pu, Z., Li, X., and Sun, J.: Impact of airborne Doppler radar data
assimilation on the numerical simulation of intensity changes of Hurricane
Dennis near a landfall, J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 3351–3365,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JAS3121.1, 2009. a
re3data.org: HyMeX, re3data.org – Registry of Research Data Repositories,
https://doi.org/10.17616/R3M34X, 2018. a
Rennie, S. J., Dance, S. L., Illingworth, A. J., Ballard, S. P., and Simonin,
D.: 3D-Var Assimilation of Insect-Derived Doppler Radar Radial Winds in
Convective Cases Using a High-Resolution Model, Mon. Weather Rev., 139,
1148–1163, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3482.1, 2011. a
Salonen, K., Cotton, J., Bormann, N., and Forsythe, M.: Characterizing AMV
height-assignment error by comparing best-fit pressure statistics from the
Met Office and ECMWF data assimilation systems, J. Appl.
Meteorol. Clim., 54, 225–242, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0025.1, 2015. a
Seity, Y., Brousseau, P., Malardel, S., Hello, G., Bénard, P.,
Bouttier,
F., Lac, C., and Masson, V.: The AROME-France Convective-Scale
Operational Model, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 976–991,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010mwr3425.1, 2011. a, b
Simonin, D., Ballard, S., and Li, Z.: Doppler radar radial wind assimilation
using an hourly cycling 3D-Var with a 1.5 km resolution version of the Met
Office Unified Model for nowcasting, Q. J. Roy.
Meteor. Soc., 140, 2298–2314, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2298, 2014. a
Wattrelot, E., Caumont, O., and Mahfouf, J.-F.: Operational Implementation
of
the 1D+3D-Var Assimilation Method of Radar Reflectivity Data in the AROME
Model, Mon. Weather Rev., 142, 1852–1873,
https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-13-00230.1, 2014.
a
Weissmann, M., Langland, R. H., Cardinali, C., Pauley, P. M., and Rahm, S.:
Influence of airborne Doppler wind lidar profiles near Typhoon Sinlaku on
ECMWF and NOGAPS forecasts, Q. J. Roy. Meteor.
Soc., 138, 118–130, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.896,
2012. a
Weng, Y. and Zhang, F.: Assimilating airborne Doppler radar observations
with
an ensemble Kalman filter for convection-permitting hurricane initialization
and prediction: Katrina (2005), Mon. Weather Rev., 140, 841–859,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2011MWR3602.1, 2012. a
Zhang, L., Pu, Z., Lee, W.-C., and Zhao, Q.: The influence of airborne
Doppler radar data quality on numerical simulations of a tropical cyclone,
Weather Forecast., 27, 231–239, https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-11-00028.1, 2012. a
Short summary
The study reports on the impact of the assimilation of wind data from airborne Doppler cloud-profiling radar in a kilometre-scale NWP model on predicting heavy precipitation events in the Mediterranean area. The positive impact of the assimilation of such data is particularly evidenced for a heavy precipitation event and results are slightly encouraging over a 45-day period. In addition, the impact of the length of the assimilation window in a 3h-3DVar assimilation system is investigated.
The study reports on the impact of the assimilation of wind data from airborne Doppler...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint
Similar articles
Evaluation of machine learning approaches...
Gallear et al.
Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling...
Schwitalla et al.
A data-driven framework for assessing...
Benso et al.