Articles | Volume 19, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-821-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-821-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Apr 2019
Research article |
| 17 Apr 2019
| 17 Apr 2019
Assimilation of wind data from airborne Doppler cloud-profiling radar in a kilometre-scale NWP system
Mary Borderies
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
CNRM UMR 3589, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Olivier Caumont
CNRM UMR 3589, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Julien Delanoë
LATMOS, IPSL, Université Versailles St-Quentin, CNRS, UPMC, Guyancourt, France
Véronique Ducrocq
CNRM UMR 3589, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Nadia Fourrié
CNRM UMR 3589, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
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The EUREC4A field campaign, designed to test hypothesized mechanisms by which clouds respond to warming and benchmark next-generation Earth-system models, is presented. EUREC4A comprised roughly 5 weeks of measurements in the downstream winter trades of the North Atlantic – eastward and southeastward of Barbados. It was the first campaign that attempted to characterize the full range of processes and scales influencing trade wind clouds.
Florian Ewald, Silke Groß, Martin Wirth, Julien Delanoë, Stuart Fox, and Bernhard Mayer
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 5029–5047, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5029-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5029-2021, 2021
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In this study, we show how solar radiance observations can be used to validate and further constrain ice cloud microphysics retrieved from the synergy of radar–lidar measurements. Since most radar–lidar retrievals rely on a global assumption about the ice particle shape, ice water content and particle size biases are to be expected in individual cloud regimes. In this work, we identify and correct these biases by reconciling simulated and measured solar radiation reflected from these clouds.
Alistair Bell, Pauline Martinet, Olivier Caumont, Benoît Vié, Julien Delanoë, Jean-Charles Dupont, and Mary Borderies
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 4929–4946, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4929-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4929-2021, 2021
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This paper presents work towards making retrievals on the liquid water content in fog and low clouds. Future retrievals will rely on a radar simulator and high-resolution forecast. In this work, real observations are used to assess the errors associated with the simulator and forecast. A selection method to reduce errors associated with the forecast is proposed. It is concluded that the distribution of errors matches the requirements for future retrievals.
Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Marie Lothon, Jean-Claude Etienne, Pascal Richard, Sandrine Bony, Julien Lernoult, Hubert Bellec, Gilles Vergez, Thierry Perrin, Julien Delanoë, Tetyana Jiang, Frédéric Pouvesle, Claude Lainard, Michel Cluzeau, Laurent Guiraud, Patrice Medina, and Theotime Charoy
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3379–3398, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3379-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3379-2021, 2021
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During the EUREC4A field experiment that took place over the tropical Atlantic Ocean east of Barbados, the French ATR 42 environment research aircraft of SAFIRE aimed to characterize the shallow cloud properties near cloud base and the turbulent structure of the subcloud layer. The high-frequency measurements of wind, temperature and humidity as well as their translation in terms of turbulent fluctuations, turbulent moments and characteristic length scales of turbulence are presented.
Olivier Caumont, Marc Mandement, François Bouttier, Judith Eeckman, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Alexane Lovat, Olivier Nuissier, and Olivier Laurantin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1135–1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1135-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1135-2021, 2021
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This study focuses on the heavy precipitation event of 14 and 15 October 2018, which caused deadly flash floods in the Aude basin in south-western France.
The case is studied from a meteorological point of view using various operational numerical weather prediction systems, as well as a unique combination of observations from both standard and personal weather stations. The peculiarities of this case compared to other cases of Mediterranean heavy precipitation events are presented.
David L. A. Flack, Gwendal Rivière, Ionela Musat, Romain Roehrig, Sandrine Bony, Julien Delanoë, Quitterie Cazenave, and Jacques Pelon
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 233–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-233-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-233-2021, 2021
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The representation of an extratropical cyclone in simulations of two climate models is studied by comparing them to observations of the international field campaign NAWDEX. We show that the current resolution used to run climate model projections (more than 100 km) is not enough to represent the life cycle accurately, but the use of 50 km resolution is good enough. Despite these encouraging results, cloud properties (partitioning liquid and solid) are found to be far from the observations.
Nadia Fourrié, Mathieu Nuret, Pierre Brousseau, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 463–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-463-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-463-2021, 2021
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The assimilation impact of four observation data sets on forecasts is studied in a mesoscale weather model. The ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) zenithal total delay data set with information on humidity has the largest impact on analyses and forecasts, representing an evenly spread and frequent data set for each analysis time over the model domain. Moreover, the reprocessing of these data also improves the forecast quality, but this impact is not statistically significant.
Nicolas Blanchard, Florian Pantillon, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, and Julien Delanoë
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 37–53, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-37-2021, 2021
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Rare aircraft observations in the warm conveyor belt outflow associated with an extratropical cyclone are complemented with convection-permitting simulations. They reveal a complex tropopause structure with two jet stream cores, from which one is reinforced by bands of negative potential vorticity. They show that negative potential vorticity takes its origin in mid-level convection, which indirectly accelerates the jet stream and, thus, may influence the downstream large-scale circulation.
Frédéric Szczap, Alaa Alkasem, Guillaume Mioche, Valery Shcherbakov, Céline Cornet, Julien Delanoë, Yahya Gour, Olivier Jourdan, Sandra Banson, and Edouard Bray
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 199–221, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-199-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-199-2021, 2021
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Spaceborne lidar and radar are suitable tools to investigate cloud vertical properties on a global scale. This paper presents the McRALI code that provides simulations of lidar and radar signals from the EarthCARE mission. Regarding radar signals, cloud heterogeneity induces a severe bias in velocity estimates. Regarding lidar signals, multiple scattering is not negligible. Our results also give some insight into the reliability of lidar signal modeling using independent column approximation.
Felipe Toledo, Julien Delanoë, Martial Haeffelin, Jean-Charles Dupont, Susana Jorquera, and Christophe Le Gac
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 6853–6875, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-6853-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-6853-2020, 2020
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Cloud observations are essential to rainfall, fog and climate change forecasts. One key instrument for these observations is cloud radar. Yet, discrepancies are found when comparing radars from different ground stations or satellites. Our work presents a calibration methodology for cloud radars based on reference targets, including an analysis of the uncertainty sources. The method enables the calibration of reference instruments to improve the quality and value of the cloud radar network data.
Olivier Nuissier, Fanny Duffourg, Maxime Martinet, Véronique Ducrocq, and Christine Lac
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14649–14667, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14649-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14649-2020, 2020
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This present article demonstrates how numerical simulations with very high horizontal resolution (150 m) can contribute to better understanding the key physical processes (turbulence and microphysics) that lead to Mediterranean heavy precipitation.
Nicolas Blanchard, Florian Pantillon, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, and Julien Delanoë
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 617–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-617-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-617-2020, 2020
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The study presents the first results from the airborne RASTA observations measured during the North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment (NAWDEX). Our combined Eulerian–Lagrangian analysis found three types of organized convection (frontal, banded and mid-level) in the warm conveyor belt (WCB) of the Stalactite cyclone. The results emphasize that convection embedded in WCBs occurs in a coherent and organized manner rather than as isolated cells.
Olivier Coopmann, Vincent Guidard, Nadia Fourrié, Béatrice Josse, and Virginie Marécal
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 2659–2680, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-2659-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-2659-2020, 2020
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The objective of this paper is to make a new selection of IASI channels by taking into account inter-channel observation-error correlations. Our selection further reduces the analysis error by 3 % in temperature, 1.8 % in humidity and 0.9 % in ozone compared to Collard’s selection, when using the same number of channels. A selection of 400 IASI channels is proposed at the end of the paper which is able to further reduce analysis errors.
Emmanuel Fontaine, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Delphine Leroy, Julien Delanoë, Alain Protat, Fabien Dezitter, John Walter Strapp, and Lyle Edward Lilie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3503–3553, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3503-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3503-2020, 2020
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This study investigates properties of ice hydrometeors (shape, concentration, density, and size) in deep convective systems. The analysis focuses on similarities and differences over four locations in the tropical troposphere. It shows that measurements as a function of temperature and radar reflectivity factors tend to be similar in the four types of deep convective systems when concentrations of ice are larger than 0.1 g m-3.
Felix Erdmann, Eric Defer, Olivier Caumont, Richard J. Blakeslee, Stéphane Pédeboy, and Sylvain Coquillat
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 853–875, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-853-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-853-2020, 2020
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This article compares lightning observations from an optical sensor onboard the International Space Station to two ground-based networks using different radio frequencies. The location and timing of coincident flashes agree well for the three instruments. Differences exist for the detected number of flashes and the characteristics. Small flashes in particular are not always detected by all three instruments. About half of the flashes at altitudes below 10 km are not seen by the satellite sensor.
César Sauvage, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Marie-Noëlle Bouin, and Véronique Ducrocq
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1675–1699, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1675-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1675-2020, 2020
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Air–sea exchanges during Mediterranean heavy precipitation events are key and their representation must be improved for high-resolution weather forecasts. This study investigates the mechanisms acting at the air–sea interface during a case that occurred in southern France. To focus on the impact of sea state, we developed and used an original coupled air–wave model. Results show modifications of the forecast for the air–sea fluxes, the near-surface wind and the location of precipitation.
Marc Mandement and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 299–322, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-299-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-299-2020, 2020
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The number of connected personal weather stations has dramatically increased in the last years. These weather stations produce a high number of data that need a thorough quality control to unleash their potential. A novel quality-control algorithm now allows us to take full advantage of these data and observe thunderstorms with fine-scale details that cannot be caught by standard networks. These results pave the way for tremendous advances in both understanding and forecasting thunderstorms.
Tony Le Bastard, Olivier Caumont, Nicolas Gaussiat, and Fatima Karbou
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 5669–5684, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-5669-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-5669-2019, 2019
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The estimation of surface rainfall from radars becomes less effective at long ranges or in mountainous regions where the radar beam is far from the ground. The method proposed in this paper investigates how vertical profiles simulated from high-resolution model can be used to predict the evolution of the precipitation below the radar beam. Our results show that this novel method leads to better results than the current operational methods that either use climatological or idealised profiles.
Stefano Federico, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Elenio Avolio, Olivier Caumont, Mario Montopoli, Luca Baldini, Gianfranco Vulpiani, and Stefano Dietrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1839–1864, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1839-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1839-2019, 2019
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This study shows the possibility to improve the weather forecast at the very short range (0–3 h) using lightning and/or radar reflectivity observations. We consider two challenging events that occurred over Italy, named Serrano and Livorno, characterized by moderate and exceptional rainfall, respectively.
The improvement given to the forecast by using the lightning and/or radar reflectivity observations is considerable. The best performance is obtained when using both data.
Nadia Fourrié, Mathieu Nuret, Pierre Brousseau, Olivier Caumont, Alexis Doerenbecher, Eric Wattrelot, Patrick Moll, Hervé Bénichou, Dominique Puech, Olivier Bock, Pierre Bosser, Patrick Chazette, Cyrille Flamant, Paolo Di Girolamo, Evelyne Richard, and Frédérique Saïd
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2657–2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2657-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2657-2019, 2019
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The AROME-WMED (western Mediterranean) model is a dedicated version of the mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction AROME-France model that ran in real time during the first special observation period of HyMeX. Two reanalyses were performed after the campaign. This paper depicts the main differences between the real-time version and the benefits brought by both HyMeX reanalyses. The second reanalysis is found to be closer to observations than the previous AROME-WMED analyses.
Imane Farouk, Nadia Fourrié, and Vincent Guidard
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 3001–3017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-3001-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-3001-2019, 2019
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A selection for homogeneous scenes for the assimilation of IASI radiances is proposed by using information on the collocated imager pixels inside each infrared observation. A revised method for the selection, which represents a compromise between two methods to select homogeneous scenes using homogeneity criteria already proposed in the literature, has a positive impact on the observation minus the simulation statistics. It has been tested in a numerical weather prediction model for clear sky.
Constantino Listowski, Julien Delanoë, Amélie Kirchgaessner, Tom Lachlan-Cope, and John King
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6771–6808, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6771-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6771-2019, 2019
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Using satellite cloud products we investigate the supercooled liquid-water (SLW) distribution Antarctic-wide for the first time. We demonstrate differences between the monthly evolution of the marine low-level mixed-phase clouds and that of the marine low-level pure SLW clouds. In addition to the temperature and sea ice fraction as factors explaining the low-level liquid-cloud seasonal cycle, ice nuclei emissions from open water may also be driving the mixed-phase cloud monthly evolution.
Quitterie Cazenave, Marie Ceccaldi, Julien Delanoë, Jacques Pelon, Silke Groß, and Andrew Heymsfield
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 2819–2835, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-2819-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-2819-2019, 2019
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The impact of ice clouds on the water cycle and radiative budget is still uncertain due to the complexity of cloud processes that makes it difficult to acquire adequate observations of ice cloud properties and parameterize them into climate and weather prediction models. In this paper we present the latest refinements brought to the DARDAR-CLOUD product, which contains ice cloud microphysical properties retrieved from the cloud radar and lidar measurements from the A-Train space mission.
Mary Borderies, Olivier Caumont, Julien Delanoë, Véronique Ducrocq, Nadia Fourrié, and Pascal Marquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 907–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-907-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-907-2019, 2019
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The potential of W-band radar reflectivity to improve the quality of analyses and forecasts of heavy precipitation events in the Mediterranean area is investigated. The 1D + 3DVar assimilation method has been adapted to assimilate the W-band reflectivity in the Météo-France kilometre-scale NWP model AROME. The results suggest that the joint assimilation of W-band reflectivity and horizontal wind profiles lead to a slight improvement of moisture analyses and rainfall precipitation forecasts.
Alexane Lovat, Béatrice Vincendon, and Véronique Ducrocq
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1801–1818, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1801-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1801-2019, 2019
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This work aims to estimate the extent to which the terrain descriptors and the spatial resolution of the hydrological model influence flash-flood modelling at the local and basin scale. The skill of the hydrological simulations is evaluated with conventional data (such as discharge measurements) and impact data (post-event surveys and high-water marks). The results reveal that the spatial resolution has the largest impact on the hydrological simulations, larger than soil texture and land cover.
Florian Ewald, Silke Groß, Martin Hagen, Lutz Hirsch, Julien Delanoë, and Matthias Bauer-Pfundstein
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 1815–1839, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-1815-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-1815-2019, 2019
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This study gives a summary of lessons learned during the absolute calibration of the airborne, high-power Ka-band cloud radar HAMP MIRA on board the German research aircraft HALO. The first part covers the internal calibration of the instrument where individual instrument components are characterized in the laboratory. In the second part, the internal calibration is validated with external reference sources like the ocean surface backscatter and different air- and spaceborne cloud radars.
Keun-Ok Lee, Cyrille Flamant, Fanny Duffourg, Véronique Ducrocq, and Jean-Pierre Chaboureau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16845–16862, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16845-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16845-2018, 2018
Odran Sourdeval, Edward Gryspeerdt, Martina Krämer, Tom Goren, Julien Delanoë, Armin Afchine, Friederike Hemmer, and Johannes Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 14327–14350, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14327-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14327-2018, 2018
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The number concentration of ice crystals (Ni) is a key cloud property that remains very uncertain due to difficulties in determining it using satellites. This lack of global observational constraints limits our ability to constrain this property in models responsible for predicting future climate. This pair of papers fills this gap by showing and analyzing the first rigorously evaluated global climatology of Ni, leading to new information shedding light on the processes that control high clouds.
Edward Gryspeerdt, Odran Sourdeval, Johannes Quaas, Julien Delanoë, Martina Krämer, and Philipp Kühne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 14351–14370, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14351-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14351-2018, 2018
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The concentration of ice crystals in a cloud affects both the properties and the life cycle of the cloud. This work uses a new satellite retrieval to investigate controls on the ice crystal concentration at a global scale. Both temperature and vertical wind speed in a cloud have a strong impact on the concentration of ice crystals. The ice crystal number is also related to the aerosol environment; defining this relation opens up new ways to investigate human impacts on clouds and the climate.
Brian H. Kahn, Hanii Takahashi, Graeme L. Stephens, Qing Yue, Julien Delanoë, Gerald Manipon, Evan M. Manning, and Andrew J. Heymsfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10715–10739, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10715-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10715-2018, 2018
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The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) satellite instrument shows statistically significant global trends in ice cloud properties between September 2002 and August 2016. The trends are not explained by known AIRS instrument limitations. Significant differences in the ice cloud particle size is found between convective clouds and thin ice clouds in the tropics. These results will be a useful benchmark for other studies of global ice cloud properties.
Christine Lac, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Valéry Masson, Jean-Pierre Pinty, Pierre Tulet, Juan Escobar, Maud Leriche, Christelle Barthe, Benjamin Aouizerats, Clotilde Augros, Pierre Aumond, Franck Auguste, Peter Bechtold, Sarah Berthet, Soline Bielli, Frédéric Bosseur, Olivier Caumont, Jean-Martial Cohard, Jeanne Colin, Fleur Couvreux, Joan Cuxart, Gaëlle Delautier, Thibaut Dauhut, Véronique Ducrocq, Jean-Baptiste Filippi, Didier Gazen, Olivier Geoffroy, François Gheusi, Rachel Honnert, Jean-Philippe Lafore, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Quentin Libois, Thibaut Lunet, Céline Mari, Tomislav Maric, Patrick Mascart, Maxime Mogé, Gilles Molinié, Olivier Nuissier, Florian Pantillon, Philippe Peyrillé, Julien Pergaud, Emilie Perraud, Joris Pianezze, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Didier Ricard, Evelyne Richard, Sébastien Riette, Quentin Rodier, Robert Schoetter, Léo Seyfried, Joël Stein, Karsten Suhre, Marie Taufour, Odile Thouron, Sandra Turner, Antoine Verrelle, Benoît Vié, Florian Visentin, Vincent Vionnet, and Philippe Wautelet
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1929–1969, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1929-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1929-2018, 2018
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This paper presents the Meso-NH model version 5.4, which is an atmospheric non-hydrostatic research model that is applied on synoptic to turbulent scales. The model includes advanced numerical techniques and state-of-the-art physics parameterization schemes. It has been expanded to provide capabilities for a range of Earth system prediction applications such as chemistry and aerosols, electricity and lightning, hydrology, wildland fires, volcanic eruptions, and cyclones with ocean coupling.
Christopher R. Yost, Kristopher M. Bedka, Patrick Minnis, Louis Nguyen, J. Walter Strapp, Rabindra Palikonda, Konstantin Khlopenkov, Douglas Spangenberg, William L. Smith Jr., Alain Protat, and Julien Delanoe
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 1615–1637, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1615-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1615-2018, 2018
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Accretion of cloud ice particles upon engine or instrument probe surfaces can cause engine malfunction or even power loss, and therefore it is important for aircraft to avoid flight through clouds that may have produced large quantities of ice particles. This study introduces a method by which potentially hazardous conditions can be detected using satellite imagery. It was found that potentially hazardous conditions were often located near or beneath very cold clouds and thunderstorm updrafts.
Javier Andrey-Andrés, Nadia Fourrié, Vincent Guidard, Raymond Armante, Pascal Brunel, Cyril Crevoisier, and Bernard Tournier
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 803–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-803-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-803-2018, 2018
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A new generation of the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) sounders, whose highly accurate measurements are commonly used in environment applications, has already been designed: IASI New Generation (IASI-NG). A database of IASI and IASI-NG simulated observations was built to set a common framework for future impact studies. This first study showed the IASI-NG benefit with an improvement of the temperature retrievals throughout the atmosphere and a lower benefit for the humidity.
Aurore Voldoire, Bertrand Decharme, Joris Pianezze, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Florence Sevault, Léo Seyfried, Valérie Garnier, Soline Bielli, Sophie Valcke, Antoinette Alias, Mickael Accensi, Fabrice Ardhuin, Marie-Noëlle Bouin, Véronique Ducrocq, Stéphanie Faroux, Hervé Giordani, Fabien Léger, Patrick Marsaleix, Romain Rainaud, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Evelyne Richard, and Sébastien Riette
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4207–4227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4207-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4207-2017, 2017
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This study presents the principles of the new coupling interface based on the SURFEX multi-surface model and the OASIS3-MCT coupler. As SURFEX can be plugged into several atmospheric models, it can be used in a wide range of applications. The objective of this development is to build and share a common structure for the atmosphere–surface coupling of all these applications, involving on the one hand atmospheric models and on the other hand ocean, ice, hydrology, and wave models.
Guillaume Mioche, Olivier Jourdan, Julien Delanoë, Christophe Gourbeyre, Guy Febvre, Régis Dupuy, Marie Monier, Frédéric Szczap, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, and Jean-François Gayet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12845–12869, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12845-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12845-2017, 2017
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This paper is a study about the mixed-phase clouds frequently occurring in the Arctic region. It is based on airborne measurements and highlights the microphysical properties of these particular clouds composed of liquid droplets at cloud top and ice crystals below precipitating down to the surface. This work may help to improve the representation of the mixed-phase clouds in numerical prediction models as well as the retrieval of their properties from remote sensing observations.
Francesco De Angelis, Domenico Cimini, Ulrich Löhnert, Olivier Caumont, Alexander Haefele, Bernhard Pospichal, Pauline Martinet, Francisco Navas-Guzmán, Henk Klein-Baltink, Jean-Charles Dupont, and James Hocking
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 3947–3961, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-3947-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-3947-2017, 2017
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Modern data assimilation systems require knowledge of the typical differences between observations and model background (O–B). This work illustrates a 1-year O–B analysis for ground-based microwave radiometer (MWR) observations in clear-sky conditions for a prototype network of six MWRs in Europe. Observations are MWR brightness temperatures (TB). Background profiles extracted from the output of a convective-scale model are used to simulate TB through the radiative transfer model RTTOV-gb.
Jean-Christophe Raut, Louis Marelle, Jerome D. Fast, Jennie L. Thomas, Bernadett Weinzierl, Katharine S. Law, Larry K. Berg, Anke Roiger, Richard C. Easter, Katharina Heimerl, Tatsuo Onishi, Julien Delanoë, and Hans Schlager
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10969–10995, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10969-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10969-2017, 2017
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We study the cross-polar transport of plumes from Siberian fires to the Arctic in summer, both in terms of transport pathways and efficiency of deposition processes. Those plumes containing soot may originate from anthropogenic and biomass burning sources in mid-latitude regions and may impact the Arctic climate by depositing on snow and ice surfaces. We evaluate the role of the respective source contributions, investigate the transport of plumes and treat pathway-dependent removal of particles.
Eivind G. Wærsted, Martial Haeffelin, Jean-Charles Dupont, Julien Delanoë, and Philippe Dubuisson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10811–10835, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10811-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10811-2017, 2017
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Heating and cooling of fog layers by solar and terrestrial radiation influence the fog life cycle. We quantify these radiative impacts on fog liquid water using detailed cloud radar observations of seven fog events as well as sensitivity studies. We find that the impact of radiation is affected mainly by fog optical thickness, atmospheric humidity and the presence of clouds above the fog. Observing these quantities in real time can therefore be useful for forecasting fog dissipation.
N. Fourrié, É. Bresson, M. Nuret, C. Jany, P. Brousseau, A. Doerenbecher, M. Kreitz, O. Nuissier, E. Sevault, H. Bénichou, M. Amodei, and F. Pouponneau
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1919–1941, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1919-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1919-2015, 2015
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To support the instrument deployment during HyMeX, aiming at studying the high precipitation in the Mediterranean area, a dedicated version of the operational convective-scale AROME-France model was developed: the AROME-WMED model. This paper presents the main features of this numerical weather prediction system in terms of data assimilation and forecast. The forecast skill of the model is then assessed during the HyMeX special observation periods and compared to the operational AROME-France.
A. Hally, O. Caumont, L. Garrote, E. Richard, A. Weerts, F. Delogu, E. Fiori, N. Rebora, A. Parodi, A. Mihalović, M. Ivković, L. Dekić, W. van Verseveld, O. Nuissier, V. Ducrocq, D. D'Agostino, A. Galizia, E. Danovaro, and A. Clematis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 537–555, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-537-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-537-2015, 2015
G. Mioche, O. Jourdan, M. Ceccaldi, and J. Delanoë
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2445–2461, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2445-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2445-2015, 2015
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The study presents a characterization of the vertical, spatial and seasonal variability of Arctic clouds and mixed-phase clouds (MPCs) over the entire Arctic region. MPC properties in the region of the Svalbard archipelago (78°N, 15°E) are also investigated. The occurrence frequency of clouds and MPCs are determined from CALIPSO/CLOUDSAT measurements processed with the DARDAR retrieval algorithm which allows for a reliable cloud thermodynamic phase classification.
E. Defer, J.-P. Pinty, S. Coquillat, J.-M. Martin, S. Prieur, S. Soula, E. Richard, W. Rison, P. Krehbiel, R. Thomas, D. Rodeheffer, C. Vergeiner, F. Malaterre, S. Pedeboy, W. Schulz, T. Farges, L.-J. Gallin, P. Ortéga, J.-F. Ribaud, G. Anderson, H.-D. Betz, B. Meneux, V. Kotroni, K. Lagouvardos, S. Roos, V. Ducrocq, O. Roussot, L. Labatut, and G. Molinié
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 649–669, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-649-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-649-2015, 2015
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The paper summarizes the scientific objectives and the observational/modeling strategy of the atmospheric electricity PEACH project of the HyMeX program focusing on the lightning activity and the electrical state of Mediterranean thunderstorms. Examples of concurrent observations from radio frequency to acoustic for regular and atypical lightning flashes and for storms are discussed, showing the unique and comprehensive description of lightning flashes recorded during a dedicated field campaign.
E. Fontaine, A. Schwarzenboeck, J. Delanoë, W. Wobrock, D. Leroy, R. Dupuy, C. Gourbeyre, and A. Protat
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11367–11392, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11367-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11367-2014, 2014
A. Hally, E. Richard, and V. Ducrocq
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1071–1084, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1071-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1071-2014, 2014
H. Brenot, A. Walpersdorf, M. Reverdy, J. van Baelen, V. Ducrocq, C. Champollion, F. Masson, E. Doerflinger, P. Collard, and P. Giroux
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 553–578, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-553-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-553-2014, 2014
C. Jouan, J. Pelon, E. Girard, G. Ancellet, J. P. Blanchet, and J. Delanoë
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1205–1224, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1205-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1205-2014, 2014
J.-F. Gayet, V. Shcherbakov, L. Bugliaro, A. Protat, J. Delanoë, J. Pelon, and A. Garnier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 899–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-899-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-899-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Reconstructing hail days in Switzerland with statistical models (1959–2022)
GTDI: a game-theory-based integrated drought index implying hazard-causing and hazard-bearing impact change
Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms?
Intense rains in Israel associated with the train effect
Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia
On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation through citizen science
Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data
Exploring the sensitivity of extreme event attribution of two recent extreme weather events in Sweden using long-running meteorological observations
Probabilistic short-range forecasts of high-precipitation events: optimal decision thresholds and predictability limits
Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters
Brief Communication: Training of AI-based nowcasting models for rainfall early warning should take into account user requirements
Modelling crop hail damage footprints with single-polarization radar: the roles of spatial resolution, hail intensity, and cropland density
Insights into ground strike point properties in Europe through the EUCLID lightning location system
The role of citizen science in assessing the spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall events in urban areas: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy
Precipitation extremes in Ukraine from 1979 to 2019: climatology, large-scale flow conditions, and moisture sources
Characterizing hail-prone environments using convection-permitting reanalysis and overshooting top detections over south-central Europe
Aircraft engine dust ingestion at global airports
Catchment-scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
The risk of synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones to shipping
Classification of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones using multiple measures of intensity
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Climatic characteristics of the Jianghuai cyclone and its linkage with precipitation during the Meiyu period from 1961 to 2020
Application of the teaching–learning-based optimization algorithm to an analytical model of thunderstorm outflows to analyze the variability of the downburst kinematic and geometric parameters
Examining the Eastern European heatwave of 2023 from a long-term perspective: the role of natural variability vs. anthropogenic factors
Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate
Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity
A satellite view of the exceptionally warm summer of 2022 over Europe
Demographic yearbooks as a source of weather-related fatalities: the Czech Republic, 1919–2022
FOREWARNS: development and multifaceted verification of enhanced regional-scale surface water flood forecasts
Assessment of wind–damage relations for Norway using 36 years of daily insurance data
Interannual variations in the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany and the response to climate change
Climatology of large hail in Europe: characteristics of the European Severe Weather Database
Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate-change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region
Assimilation of surface pressure observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
An open-source radar-based hail damage model for buildings and cars
Linkages between atmospheric rivers and humid heat across the United States
Evaluating pySTEPS optical flow algorithms for convection nowcasting over the Maritime Continent using satellite data
Climate change impacts on regional fire weather in heterogeneous landscapes of central Europe
High-resolution projections of ambient heat for major European cities using different heat metrics
Heat wave characteristics: evaluation of regional climate model performances for Germany
Rain-on-snow responses to warmer Pyrenees: a sensitivity analysis using a physically based snow hydrological model
Spatial identification of regions at risk to multi-hazards at pan European level: an implemented methodological approach
Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks
Probabilistic hazard assessment of the gas emission of Mefite d’Ansanto, Southern Italy
Wind as a natural hazard in Poland
Climatological occurrences of hail and tornadoes associated with mesoscale convective systems in the United States
Characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning (CG) and differences between +CG and −CG strokes in China regarding the China National Lightning Detection Network
The climatology and nature of warm-season convective cells in cold-frontal environments over Germany
Forecasting large hail and lightning using additive logistic regression models and the ECMWF reforecasts
The anomalous thundery month of June 1925 in SW Iberia: description and synoptic analysis
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3869–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, 2024
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In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past hail days in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new time series reveals a significant increase in hail day occurrences over the last 7 decades. We link this trend to increases in moisture and instability variables in the models. This time series can now be used to unravel the complexities of Swiss hail occurrence and to understand what drives its year-to-year variability.
Xiaowei Zhao, Tianzeng Yang, Hongbo Zhang, Tian Lan, Chaowei Xue, Tongfang Li, Zhaoxia Ye, Zhifang Yang, and Yurou Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3479–3495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, 2024
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To effectively track and identify droughts, we developed a novel integrated drought index that combines the effects of precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture on drought. After comparison and verification, the integrated drought index shows superior performance compared to a single meteorological drought index or agricultural drought index in terms of drought identification.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
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European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological loss index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high-impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3267–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, 2024
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The train effect is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall and sometimes floods and are reported in North America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains associated with Cyprus lows were identified by radar images and were found within the cold sector south of the low center and in the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km; last 1–3 h; and yield 35 mm of rainfall up to 60 mm.
Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, 2024
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A computer model that simulates the climate of southeastern Australia is shown here to represent extreme wind events associated with convective storms. This is useful as it allows us to investigate possible future changes in the occurrences of these events, and we find in the year 2050 that our model simulates a decrease in the number of occurrences. However, the model also simulates too many events in the historical climate compared with observations, so these future changes are uncertain.
Hofit Shachaf, Colin Price, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Cliff Mass
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3035–3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, 2024
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We have used the temperature and relative humidity sensors in smartphones to estimate the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an important atmospheric parameter closely linked to fuel moisture and wildfire risk. Our analysis for two severe wildfire case studies in Israel and Portugal shows the potential for using smartphone data to compliment the regular weather station network while also providing high spatial resolution of the VPD index.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2939–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, 2024
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High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, 2024
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Associating extreme weather events with changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored two ways these relationships can be investigated: one using a more common method and one relying solely on long-running records of meteorological observations.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2793–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, 2024
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Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called ensemble prediction. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity and space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitation.
Joy Ommer, Jessica Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, 2024
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What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed to be beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe-weather forecasts and warnings need to advance in order to trigger our imagination of what might happen and enable us to start preparing.
Georgy Ayzel and Maik Heistermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1945, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1945, 2024
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Forecasting rainfall over the next hour is an essential feature of early warning systems. Deep learning has emerged as a powerful alternative to conventional nowcasting technologies, but it still struggles to adequately predict impact-relevant heavy rainfall. We think that DL could do much better if the training tasks were defined more specifically, and that such a specification presents an opportunity to better align the output of nowcasting models with actual user requirements.
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2541–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, 2024
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The study presents an open-source model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops and grapevines after hailstorms in Switzerland based on radar, agricultural land use data, and insurance damage reports. The model performs best at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevine and in the main production areas. Highlighting performance trade-offs and the relevance of user needs, the study is a first step towards the assessment of risk and damage for crops in Switzerland.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2511–2522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, 2024
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EUCLID's lightning data unveil distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. The daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
Nicola Loglisci, Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2495–2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, 2024
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We analyse the meteo-hydrological features of the 27 and 28 August 2023 event that occurred in Genoa. Rainfall observations were made using rain gauge networks based on either official networks or citizen science networks. The merged analysis stresses the spatial variability in the precipitation, which cannot be captured by the current spatial density of authoritative stations. Results show that at minimal distances the variations in cumulated rainfall over a sub-hourly duration are significant.
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2441–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, 2024
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This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptic analysis.
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2331–2357, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, 2024
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To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports is tested and presented. Hail likelihood peaks in mid-summer at 15:00 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to previous estimates. By separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large-hail occurrence is found.
Claire L. Ryder, Clément Bézier, Helen F. Dacre, Rory Clarkson, Vassilis Amiridis, Eleni Marinou, Emmanouil Proestakis, Zak Kipling, Angela Benedetti, Mark Parrington, Samuel Rémy, and Mark Vaughan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2263–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, 2024
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Desert dust poses a hazard to aircraft via degradation of engine components. This has financial implications for the aviation industry and results in increased fuel burn with climate impacts. Here we quantify dust ingestion by aircraft engines at airports worldwide. We find Dubai and Delhi in summer are among the dustiest airports, where substantial engine degradation would occur after 1000 flights. Dust ingestion can be reduced by changing take-off times and the altitude of holding patterns.
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2191–2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, 2024
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This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression and range of variability analysis are used to determine the drought severity and times where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using indicators of hydrological alterations). Moreover, this study also examines the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought using the hydrological alteration factor.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
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The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Joona Samuel Cornér, Clément Gael Francis Bouvier, Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, and Victoria Anne Sinclair
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1749, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1749, 2024
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Classification reduces the considerable variability between extratropical cyclones (ETC) and thus simplifies studying their representation in climate models and changes in the future climate. In this paper we present an objective classification of ETCs using measures of ETC intensity. This is motivated by the aim of finding a set of ETC intensity measures which together comprehensively describe both the dynamical and impact-relevant nature of ETC intensity.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, 2024
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Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data were disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Ran Zhu and Lei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1937–1950, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, 2024
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There is a positive correlation between the frequency of Jianghuai cyclone activity and precipitation during the Meiyu period. Its occurrence frequency has an obvious decadal variation, which corresponds well with the quasi-periodic and decadal variation in precipitation during the Meiyu period. This study provides a reference for the long-term and short-term forecasting of precipitation during the Meiyu period.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1657–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, 2024
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The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Monica Ionita, Petru Vaideanu, Bogdan Antonescu, Catalin Roibu, Qiyun Ma, and Viorica Nagavciuc
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1207, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1207, 2024
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Eastern Europe's heatwave history is explored from 1885 to 2023, with a focus on pre-1960 events. The study reveals two periods with more frequent and intense heatwaves (HW): 1920s–1960s and 1980s–present. The research highlights the importance of a long-term perspective, revealing that extreme heat events have occurred throughout the entire study period and it emphasizes the combined influence of climate change and natural variations on increasing HW severity.
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1555–1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, 2024
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We combine climate projections from 30 climate models with a climate risk model to project winter windstorm damages in Europe under climate change. We study the uncertainty and sensitivity factors related to the modelling of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. We emphasize high uncertainties in the damage projections, with climate models primarily driving the uncertainty. We find climate change reshapes future European windstorm risk by altering damage locations and intensity.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1539–1554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, 2024
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Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
João P. A. Martins, Sara Caetano, Carlos Pereira, Emanuel Dutra, and Rita M. Cardoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, 2024
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Over Europe, 2022 was truly exceptional in terms of extreme heat conditions, both in terms of temperature anomalies and their temporal and spatial extent. The satellite all-sky land surface temperature (LST) is used to provide a climatological context to extreme heat events. Where drought conditions prevail, LST anomalies are higher than 2 m air temperature anomalies. ERA5-Land does not represent this effect correctly due to a misrepresentation of vegetation anomalies.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1437–1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, 2024
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The official mortality data in the Czech Republic in 1919–2022 are used to show long-term fluctuations in the number of fatalities caused by excessive natural cold and heat, lightning, natural disasters, and falls on ice/snow, as well as the sex and age of the deceased, based on certain meteorological, historical, and socioeconomic factors that strongly influence changes in the number and structure of such fatalities. Knowledge obtained is usable in risk management for the preservation of lives.
Ben Maybee, Cathryn E. Birch, Steven J. Böing, Thomas Willis, Linda Speight, Aurore N. Porson, Charlie Pilling, Kay L. Shelton, and Mark A. Trigg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1415–1436, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, 2024
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This paper presents the development and verification of FOREWARNS, a novel method for regional-scale forecasting of surface water flooding. We detail outcomes from a workshop held with UK forecast users, who indicated they valued the forecasts and would use them to complement national guidance. We use results of objective forecast tests against flood observations over northern England to show that this confidence is justified and that FOREWARNS meets the needs of UK flood responders.
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1341–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, 2024
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The present study uses daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns. However, there is no single damage function that performs better than another. A newly devised damage–no-damage classifier shows some skill in predicting extreme damaging events.
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1261–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, 2024
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The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
Faye Hulton and David M. Schultz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1079–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, 2024
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Large hail devastates crops and property and can injure and kill people and livestock. Hail reports are collected by individual countries, so understanding where and when large hail occurs across Europe is an incomplete undertaking. We use the European Severe Weather Database to evaluate the quality of reports by year and by country since 2000. Despite its short record, the dataset appears to represent aspects of European large-hail climatology reliably.
Patrick Olschewski, Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng, Hassane Moutahir, Brian Böker, Edwin Haas, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1099–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, 2024
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We applied a multivariate and dependency-preserving bias correction method to climate model output for the Greater Mediterranean Region and investigated potential changes in false-spring events (FSEs) and heat–drought compound events (HDCEs). Results project an increase in the frequency of FSEs in middle and late spring as well as increases in frequency, intensity, and duration for HDCEs. This will potentially aggravate the risk of crop loss and failure and negatively impact food security.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 907–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, 2024
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Improvements in numerical weather prediction models make it possible to warn of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated. It leads to a significant improvement in the modelling of the surface pressure field up to 9 h ahead. Their incorporation improves the location and intensity of the heavy precipitation event that occurred in the South of France in September 2021.
Timo Schmid, Raphael Portmann, Leonie Villiger, Katharina Schröer, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 847–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, 2024
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Hailstorms cause severe damage to buildings and cars, which motivates a detailed risk assessment. Here, we present a new open-source hail damage model based on radar data in Switzerland. The model successfully estimates the correct order of magnitude of car and building damages for most large hail events over 20 years. However, large uncertainty remains in the geographical distribution of modelled damages, which can be improved for individual events by using crowdsourced hail reports.
Colin Raymond, Anamika Shreevastava, Emily Slinskey, and Duane Waliser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 791–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, 2024
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How can we systematically understand what causes high levels of atmospheric humidity and thus heat stress? Here we argue that atmospheric rivers can be a useful tool, based on our finding that in several US regions, atmospheric rivers and humid heat occur close together in space and time. Most typically, an atmospheric river transports moisture which heightens heat stress, with precipitation following a day later. These effects tend to be larger for stronger and more extensive systems.
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
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Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
Julia Miller, Andrea Böhnisch, Ralf Ludwig, and Manuela I. Brunner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 411–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, 2024
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We assess the impacts of climate change on fire danger for 1980–2099 in different landscapes of central Europe, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) as a fire danger indicator. We find that today's 100-year FWI event will occur every 30 years by 2050 and every 10 years by 2099. High fire danger (FWI > 21.3) becomes the mean condition by 2099 under an RCP8.5 scenario. This study highlights the potential for severe fire events in central Europe from a meteorological perspective.
Clemens Schwingshackl, Anne Sophie Daloz, Carley Iles, Kristin Aunan, and Jana Sillmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 331–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, 2024
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Ambient heat in European cities will substantially increase under global warming, as projected by three heat metrics calculated from high-resolution climate model simulations. While the heat metrics consistently project high levels of ambient heat for several cities, in other cities the projected heat levels vary considerably across the three heat metrics. Using complementary heat metrics for projections of ambient heat is thus important for assessments of future risks from heat stress.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 265–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, 2024
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The influence of model resolution and settings on the reproduction of heat waves in Germany between 1980–2009 is analyzed. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Neither the increased resolution nor the tailored model settings are found to add significant value to the heat wave simulation. The models exhibit a large spread, indicating that the choice of model can be crucial.
Josep Bonsoms, Juan I. López-Moreno, Esteban Alonso-González, César Deschamps-Berger, and Marc Oliva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 245–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, 2024
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Climate warming is changing mountain snowpack patterns, leading in some cases to rain-on-snow (ROS) events. Here we analyzed near-present ROS and its sensitivity to climate warming across the Pyrenees. ROS increases during the coldest months of the year but decreases in the warmest months and areas under severe warming due to snow cover depletion. Faster snow ablation is anticipated in the coldest and northern slopes of the range. Relevant implications in mountain ecosystem are anticipated.
Tiberiu-Eugen Antofie, Stefano Luoni, Alois Tilloy, Andrea Sibilia, Sandro Salari, Gustav Eklund, Davide Rodomonti, Christos Bountzouklis, and Christina Corbane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-220, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-220, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This is the first study that uses spatial patterns (clusters/hot-spots) and meta-analysis in order to identify the regions at European level at risk to multi-hazards. The findings point out the socio-economic dimension as determinant factor for the risk potential to multi-hazard. The outcome provides valuable input for the Disaster Risk Management policy support and will assist national authorities on the implementation of a multi-hazard approach in the National Risk Assessments preparation.
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3845–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, 2023
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This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. The largest gusts are found across NW Europe, and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using theoretical future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
Fabio Dioguardi, Giovanni Chiodini, and Antonio Costa
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2867, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2867, 2023
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We present results of non-volcanic gas (CO2) hazard assessment at the Mefite d’Ansanto area (Italy) where a cold gas stream, which had already been lethal for humans and animals, forms in the valleys surrounding the emission zone. We took the uncertainty related to the gas emission and meteorological conditions into account. Results include maps of CO2 concentration at defined probability levels and of the probability to overcome specified CO2 concentrations over specified time intervals.
Tadeusz Chmielewski and Piotr A. Bońkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3839–3844, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, 2023
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The paper deals with wind speeds of extreme wind events in Poland and the descriptions of their effects. Two recent estimations developed by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management in Warsaw and by Halina Lorenc are presented and briefly described. The 37 annual maximum gusts of wind speeds measured between 1971 and 2007 are analysed. Based on the measured and estimated wind speeds, the authors suggest new estimations for extreme winds that may occur in Poland.
Jingyu Wang, Jiwen Fan, and Zhe Feng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3823–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, 2023
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Hail and tornadoes are devastating hazards responsible for significant property damage and economic losses in the United States. Quantifying the connection between hazard events and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is of great significance for improving predictability, as well as for better understanding the influence of the climate-scale perturbations. A 14-year statistical dataset of MCS-related hazard production is presented.
Ruijiao Jiang, Guoping Zhang, Shudong Wang, Bing Xue, Zhengshuai Xie, Tingzhao Yu, Kuoyin Wang, Jin Ding, and Xiaoxiang Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3747–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, 2023
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Lightning activity in China is analyzed. Low latitudes, undulating terrain, seaside, and humid surfaces are beneficial for lightning occurrence. Summer of the year or afternoon of the day is the high period. Large cloud-to-ground lightning frequency always corresponds to a small ratio and weak intensity of positive cloud-to-ground lightning on either a temporal or spatial scale. Interestingly, the discharge intensity difference between the two types of lightning shrinks on the Tibetan Plateau.
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, Lisa Schielicke, and Kathrin Wapler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, 2023
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Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) and sometimes with hazards such as flooding, hail and lightning. We find that cold-frontal cell days are associated with higher cell frequency and cells are typically more intense. We also show both spatially and temporally where cells are most frequent depending on their cell-front distance. These results are an important step towards a deeper understanding of cold-frontal storm climatology and improved forecasting.
Francesco Battaglioli, Pieter Groenemeijer, Ivan Tsonevsky, and Tomàš Púčik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3651–3669, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, 2023
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Probabilistic models for lightning and large hail were developed across Europe using lightning observations and hail reports. These models accurately predict the occurrence of lightning and large hail several days in advance. In addition, the hail model was shown to perform significantly better than the state-of-the-art forecasting methods. These results suggest that the models developed in this study may help improve forecasting of convective hazards and eventually limit the associated risks.
Francisco Javier Acero, Manuel Antón, Alejandro Jesús Pérez Aparicio, Nieves Bravo-Paredes, Víctor Manuel Sánchez Carrasco, María Cruz Gallego, José Agustín García, Marcelino Núñez, Irene Tovar, Javier Vaquero-Martínez, and José Manuel Vaquero
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2522, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2522, 2023
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The month of June 1925 was detected as exceptional in the SW interior of Iberia due to the large number of thunderstorms and the significant impacts that caused, with serious losses in human lives and material resources. We analyzed this event from different, complementary perspectives: the reconstruction of the history of the events from newspapers; the study of monthly meteorological variables of the longest series available in Iberia; and the analysis of the meteorological synoptic situation.
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Short summary
The study reports on the impact of the assimilation of wind data from airborne Doppler cloud-profiling radar in a kilometre-scale NWP model on predicting heavy precipitation events in the Mediterranean area. The positive impact of the assimilation of such data is particularly evidenced for a heavy precipitation event and results are slightly encouraging over a 45-day period. In addition, the impact of the length of the assimilation window in a 3h-3DVar assimilation system is investigated.
The study reports on the impact of the assimilation of wind data from airborne Doppler...
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