Articles | Volume 16, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-719-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-719-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 Mar 2016
Research article |
| 15 Mar 2016
Influence of meteorological factors on rockfall occurrence in a middle mountain limestone cliff
Julie D'Amato
Université Grenoble Alpes, ISTerre, 38041 Grenoble, France
Didier Hantz
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Université Grenoble Alpes, ISTerre, 38041 Grenoble, France
Antoine Guerin
Center for Research on Terrestrial Environment (CRET),
Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne,
Unil-Mouline, Geopolis, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
Michel Jaboyedoff
Center for Research on Terrestrial Environment (CRET),
Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne,
Unil-Mouline, Geopolis, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
Laurent Baillet
Université Grenoble Alpes, ISTerre, 38041 Grenoble, France
Armand Mariscal
Université Grenoble Alpes, ISTerre, 38041 Grenoble, France
IRD, ISTerre, 38041 Grenoble, France
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Charlotte Wolff, Marc-Henri Derron, Carlo Rivolta, and Michel Jaboyedoff
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2489, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2489, 2023
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InSAR is vital for monitoring slope instabilities but requires understanding. This paper delves into differences between satellite and GB-InSAR, addressing geometry and acquisition. It offers a user-friendly tool to determine the best GB-InSAR installation location, considering various technical, meteorological, and topographical factors, streamlining the campaign setup.
François Noël, Michel Jaboyedoff, Andrin Caviezel, Clément Hibert, Franck Bourrier, and Jean-Philippe Malet
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 1141–1164, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-1141-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-1141-2022, 2022
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Rockfall simulations are often performed to make sure infrastructure is safe. For that purpose, rockfall trajectory data are needed to calibrate the simulation models. In this paper, an affordable, flexible, and efficient trajectory reconstruction method is proposed. The method is tested by reconstructing trajectories from a full-scale rockfall experiment involving 2670 kg rocks and a flexible barrier. The results highlight improvements in precision and accuracy of the proposed method.
Clément Hibert, François Noël, David Toe, Miloud Talib, Mathilde Desrues, Emmanuel Wyser, Ombeline Brenguier, Franck Bourrier, Renaud Toussaint, Jean-Philippe Malet, and Michel Jaboyedoff
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-522, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-522, 2022
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Natural disasters such as landslides and rock falls are mostly difficult to study because of the impossibility of making in situ measurements due to their destructive nature and spontaneous occurrence. Seismology is able to record the occurrence of such events from a distance and in real time. In this study, we show that using a machine learning approach, the mass and velocity of rockfalls can be estimated from the seismic signal they generate.
Emmanuel Wyser, Yury Alkhimenkov, Michel Jaboyedoff, and Yury Y. Podladchikov
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7749–7774, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7749-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7749-2021, 2021
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We propose an implementation of the material point method using graphical processing units (GPUs) to solve elastoplastic problems in three-dimensional configurations, such as the granular collapse or the slumping mechanics, i.e., landslide. The computational power of GPUs promotes fast code executions, compared to a traditional implementation using central processing units (CPUs). This allows us to study complex three-dimensional problems tackling high spatial resolution.
Martin Franz, Michel Jaboyedoff, Ryan P. Mulligan, Yury Podladchikov, and W. Andy Take
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1229–1245, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1229-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1229-2021, 2021
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A landslide-generated tsunami is a complex phenomenon that involves landslide dynamics, wave dynamics and their interaction. This phenomenon threatens numerous lives and infrastructures around the world. To assess this natural hazard, we developed an efficient numerical model able to simulate the landslide, the momentum transfer and the wave all at once. The good agreement between the numerical simulations and physical experiments validates our model and its novel momentum transfer approach.
Emmanuel Wyser, Yury Alkhimenkov, Michel Jaboyedoff, and Yury Y. Podladchikov
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6265–6284, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6265-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6265-2020, 2020
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In this work, we present an efficient and fast material point method (MPM) implementation in MATLAB. We first discuss the vectorization strategies to adapt this numerical method to a MATLAB implementation. We report excellent agreement of the solver compared with classical analysis among the MPM community, such as the cantilever beam problem. The solver achieves a performance gain of 28 compared with a classical iterative implementation.
Martin Mergili, Michel Jaboyedoff, José Pullarello, and Shiva P. Pudasaini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 505–520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-505-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-505-2020, 2020
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Computer simulations of complex landslide processes in mountain areas are important for informing risk management but are at the same time challenging in terms of parameterization and physical and numerical model implementation. Using the tool r.avaflow, we highlight the progress and the challenges with regard to such simulations on the example of the Piz Cengalo–Bondo landslide cascade in Switzerland, which started as an initial rockslide–rockfall and finally evolved into a debris flow.
Michel Jaboyedoff, Masahiro Chigira, Noriyuki Arai, Marc-Henri Derron, Benjamin Rudaz, and Ching-Ying Tsou
Earth Surf. Dynam., 7, 439–458, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-439-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-439-2019, 2019
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High-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) can now be acquired using airborne laser scanners. This allows for a detailed analysis of the geometry of landslides. Several large landslides were triggered by Typhoon Talas in Japan in 2011. The comparison of pre- and post-DEMs allowed us to test a method of defining landslide failure surfaces before catastrophic movements. It provides new results about the curvature of the failure surface and the volume expansion of the deposit.
Jérémie Voumard, Antonio Abellán, Pierrick Nicolet, Ivanna Penna, Marie-Aurélie Chanut, Marc-Henri Derron, and Michel Jaboyedoff
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2093–2107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2093-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2093-2017, 2017
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We discuss the challenges and limitations of surveying rock slope failures using 3-D reconstruction from images acquired from street view imagery (SVI) and processed with modern photogrammetric workflows. Despite some clear limitations and challenges, we demonstrate that this original approach could help obtain preliminary 3-D models of an area without on-field images. Furthermore, the pre-failure topography can be obtained for sites where it would not be available otherwise.
Antoine Guerin, Antonio Abellán, Battista Matasci, Michel Jaboyedoff, Marc-Henri Derron, and Ludovic Ravanel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1207–1220, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1207-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1207-2017, 2017
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The coupling of terrestrial lidar scans acquired in 2011 and a photogrammetric model created from 30 old Web-retrieved images enabled reconstructing in 3-D the Drus west face before the 2005 rock avalanche and estimating the volume of this event. The volume is calculated as 292 680 m3 (±5.6 %). However, despite functioning well for the Drus (legendary peak), this method would have been difficult to implement on a less-well-known site with fewer images available to be collected and downloaded.
Pascal Horton, Charles Obled, and Michel Jaboyedoff
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3307–3323, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3307-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3307-2017, 2017
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The analogue method aims at forecasting precipitation by means of a statistical relationship with meteorological variables at a large scale, such as the general atmospheric circulation. A moving time window has been introduced here in order to allow finding better analogue situations at different hours of the day. This change resulted in a better analogy of the atmospheric circulation, with improved prediction skills, and even to a greater extent for days with heavy precipitation.
Ryan A. Kromer, Antonio Abellán, D. Jean Hutchinson, Matt Lato, Marie-Aurelie Chanut, Laurent Dubois, and Michel Jaboyedoff
Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 293–310, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-293-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-293-2017, 2017
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We developed and tested an automated terrestrial laser scanning (ATLS) system with near-real-time change detection at the Séchilienne landslide. We monitored the landslide for a 6-week period collecting a point cloud every 30 min. We detected various slope processes including movement of scree material, pre-failure deformation of discrete rockfall events and deformation of the main landslide body. This system allows the study of slope processes a high level of temporal detail.
Roya Olyazadeh, Karen Sudmeier-Rieux, Michel Jaboyedoff, Marc-Henri Derron, and Sanjaya Devkota
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 549–561, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-549-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-549-2017, 2017
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This work shows the progress and testing of an online–offline web-GIS application based on open-source technologies for landslide hazard and risk. It has satellite images as a base map in the offline mode and data collection in a centralized online database. The advantage of a mobile app coupled with satellite images over mapping in the office is improved identification of landslide type. This study was used for landslides in Nepal, but it can also be useful for other hazards like floods.
Zar Chi Aye, Roya Olyazadeh, Marc-Henri Derron, Michel Jaboyedoff, and Johann Lüthi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-85, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-85, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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In this paper, we present an open-source, web-GIS application (RISKGIS), developed for students learning in risk management of geohazards with real case studies. The aim is for students to better understand and become familiarized with approaches used by experts as well as for teachers to better evaluate and monitor student learning. A series of practical exercises is carried out with students and feedback are collected to identify the possibility and applicability of RISKGIS learning platform.
Jacques Bechet, Julien Duc, Alexandre Loye, Michel Jaboyedoff, Nicolle Mathys, Jean-Philippe Malet, Sébastien Klotz, Caroline Le Bouteiller, Benjamin Rudaz, and Julien Travelletti
Earth Surf. Dynam., 4, 781–798, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-781-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-781-2016, 2016
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This paper describes the erosion processes of a small black marl catchment. It is based on terrestrial laser scanner digital elevation model campaigns. A detailed sediment budget is performed, leading to a seasonal sediment transport pattern described spatially and temporally. The link with precipitation intensities and duration is analysed, leading to a conceptual model of erosion that provides clear input for future research regarding potential impacts of climate change on erosion processes.
Céline Longchamp, Antonio Abellan, Michel Jaboyedoff, and Irene Manzella
Earth Surf. Dynam., 4, 743–755, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-743-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-743-2016, 2016
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The main objective of this research is to analyze rock avalanche dynamics by means of a detailed structural analysis of the deposits coming from data of 3-D measurements. The studied deposits are of different magnitude: (1) decimeter level scale laboratory experiments and (2) well-studied rock avalanches.
Filtering techniques were developed and applied to a 3-D dataset in order to detect fault structures present in the deposits and to propose kinematic mechanisms for the propagation.
Alexandre Loye, Michel Jaboyedoff, Joshua Isaac Theule, and Frédéric Liébault
Earth Surf. Dynam., 4, 489–513, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-489-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-489-2016, 2016
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The sediment supply and storage changes from major channels of the Manival catchment (French Alps) were surveyed periodically for 16 months to study the coupling between sediment dynamics and torrent responses in terms of debris flow events. The spatial and seasonal variability of sediment delivery is displayed and analysed. This study shows that monitoring the changes within a torrent’s in-channel storage and its debris supply can improve knowledge on recharge thresholds leading to debris flow.
Pierrick Nicolet, Michel Jaboyedoff, Catherine Cloutier, Giovanni B. Crosta, and Sébastien Lévy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 995–1004, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-995-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-995-2016, 2016
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When calculating the risk of railway or road users being killed by a natural hazard, one has to calculate a temporal spatial probability, i.e. the probability of a vehicle being in the path of the falling mass when the mass falls, or the expected number of hit vehicles in the case of an event. This paper discusses different methods used to calculate this probability, in particular regarding the consideration of the dimensions of the falling mass and of the vehicles.
Z. C. Aye, M. Jaboyedoff, M. H. Derron, C. J. van Westen, H. Y. Hussin, R. L. Ciurean, S. Frigerio, and A. Pasuto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 85–101, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-85-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-85-2016, 2016
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This paper presents the development and application of a prototype web-GIS tool for risk analysis, in particular for floods and landslides, based on open-source software and web technologies. The aim is to assist experts (risk managers) in analysing the impacts and consequences of a certain hazard event in a considered region, contributing to open-source and research community in natural hazards and risk assessment. The tool is demonstrated using a regional data set of Fella River basin, Italy.
J. Bechet, J. Duc, M. Jaboyedoff, A. Loye, and N. Mathys
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1849–1855, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1849-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1849-2015, 2015
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High-resolution three-dimensional point clouds are used to analyse erosion processes at the millimetre scale. The processes analysed here play a role in the closure of cracks. We demonstrated how micro-scale infiltration can influence the degradation of soil surface by inducing downward mass movements that are not reversible. This development will aid in designing future experiments to analyse processes such as swelling, crack closure, micro-landslides, etc.
P. Bottelin, D. Jongmans, D. Daudon, A. Mathy, A. Helmstetter, V. Bonilla-Sierra, H. Cadet, D. Amitrano, V. Richefeu, L. Lorier, L. Baillet, P. Villard, and F. Donzé
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 3175–3193, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-3175-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-3175-2014, 2014
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Two mid-size rockfalls (~2,000 m3 each) occurred at the same place in 2011. While the first event was natural, the second one was artificially triggered and recorded by video cameras and seismic sensors. The measurements showed propagation velocities ranging from 12 to 30 m/s over the successive event phases. The most seismogenic phases were related to ground impact after free-fall and individual block impacts into a protective barrier. DEM reproduced the key features of the rockfall dynamics.
A. Guerin, D. Hantz, J.-P. Rossetti, and M. Jaboyedoff
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-123-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-123-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
M. Böhme, M.-H. Derron, and M. Jaboyedoff
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-81-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-81-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
P. Nicolet, L. Foresti, O. Caspar, and M. Jaboyedoff
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 3169–3184, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3169-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3169-2013, 2013
J. Voumard, O. Caspar, M.-H. Derron, and M. Jaboyedoff
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2763–2777, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2763-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2763-2013, 2013
P. Horton, M. Jaboyedoff, B. Rudaz, and M. Zimmermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 869–885, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-869-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-869-2013, 2013
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 891–906, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-891-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-891-2024, 2024
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We developed three rock bridge models to analyze 3D stability and deformation behaviors of the Tizicao landslide and found that the contact surface model with high strength parameters combines advantages of the intact rock mass model in simulating the deformation of slopes with rock bridges and the modeling advantage of the Jennings model. The results help in choosing a rock bridge model to simulate landslide stability and reveal the influence laws of rock bridges on the stability of landslides.
Ashok Dahal, Hakan Tanyas, Cees van Westen, Mark van der Meijde, Paul Martin Mai, Raphaël Huser, and Luigi Lombardo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 823–845, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-823-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-823-2024, 2024
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We propose a modeling approach capable of recognizing slopes that may generate landslides, as well as how large these mass movements may be. This protocol is implemented, tested, and validated with data that change in both space and time via an Ensemble Neural Network architecture.
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 631–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-631-2024, 2024
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 465–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-465-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-465-2024, 2024
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Rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds can aid in the prediction of natural hazards. Large-scale sediment disasters like landslides, debris flows, and flash floods happen frequently in the Himalayas because of their propensity for intense precipitation events. We provide a new framework that combines the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a regionally distributed numerical model for debris flows to analyse and predict intense rainfall-induced landslides in the Himalayas.
Jacob B. Woodard, Benjamin B. Mirus, Nathan J. Wood, Kate E. Allstadt, Benjamin A. Leshchinsky, and Matthew M. Crawford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, 2024
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Dividing landscapes into hillslopes greatly improves predictions of landslide potential across landscapes, but their scaling is often arbitrarily set and can require significant computing power to delineate. Here, we present a new computer program that can efficiently divide landscapes into meaningful slope units scaled to best capture landslide processes. The results of this work will allow an improved understanding of landslide potential and can help reduce the impacts of landslides worldwide.
Anne Felsberg, Zdenko Heyvaert, Jean Poesen, Thomas Stanley, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3805–3821, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, 2023
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The Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS) model combines ensembles of landslide susceptibility and of hydrological predictor variables to provide daily, global ensembles of hazard for hydrologically triggered landslides. Testing different hydrological predictors showed that the combination of rainfall and soil moisture performed best, with the lowest number of missed and false alarms. The ensemble approach allowed the estimation of the associated prediction uncertainty.
Rex L. Baum, Dianne L. Brien, Mark E. Reid, William H. Schulz, and Matthew J. Tello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-185, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-185, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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We mapped potential for heavy rainfall to cause landslides in part of the central mountains of Puerto Rico using new tools for estimating soil depth and quasi-3D slope stability. Potential ground-failure locations correlate well with the spatial density of landslides from Hurricane Maria. The smooth boundaries of the very high and high ground-failure susceptibility zones enclose 75 and 90 percent, respectively, of observed landslides. The maps can help mitigate ground-failure hazards.
Xushan Shi, Bo Chai, Juan Du, Wei Wang, and Bo Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3425–3443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3425-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3425-2023, 2023
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A 3D stability analysis method is proposed for biased rockfall with external erosion. Four failure modes are considered according to rockfall evolution processes, including partial damage of underlying soft rock and overall failure of hard rock blocks. This method is validated with the biased rockfalls in the Sichuan Basin, China. The critical retreat ratio from low to moderate rockfall susceptibility is 0.33. This method could facilitate rockfall early identification and risk mitigation.
Marius Schneider, Nicolas Oestreicher, Thomas Ehrat, and Simon Loew
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3337–3354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3337-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3337-2023, 2023
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Rockfalls and their hazards are typically treated as statistical events based on rockfall catalogs, but only a few complete rockfall inventories are available today. Here, we present new results from a Doppler radar rockfall alarm system, which has operated since 2018 at a high frequency under all illumination and weather conditions at a site where frequent rockfall events threaten a village and road. The new data set is used to investigate rockfall triggers in an active rockslide complex.
Annette I. Patton, Lisa V. Luna, Joshua J. Roering, Aaron Jacobs, Oliver Korup, and Benjamin B. Mirus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3261–3284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3261-2023, 2023
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Landslide warning systems often use statistical models to predict landslides based on rainfall. They are typically trained on large datasets with many landslide occurrences, but in rural areas large datasets may not exist. In this study, we evaluate which statistical model types are best suited to predicting landslides and demonstrate that even a small landslide inventory (five storms) can be used to train useful models for landslide early warning when non-landslide events are also included.
Sandra Melzner, Marco Conedera, Johannes Hübl, and Mauro Rossi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3079–3093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3079-2023, 2023
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The estimation of the temporal frequency of the involved rockfall processes is an important part in hazard and risk assessments. Different methods can be used to collect and analyse rockfall data. From a statistical point of view, rockfall datasets are nearly always incomplete. Accurate data collection approaches and the application of statistical methods on existing rockfall data series as reported in this study should be better considered in rockfall hazard and risk assessments in the future.
Katherine R. Barnhart, Christopher R. Miller, Francis K. Rengers, and Jason W. Kean
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1892, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1892, 2023
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Debris flows are a type of fast-moving landslide that start from shallow landslides or during intense rain. Infrastructure located downstream of watersheds susceptible to debris flows may be damaged should a debris flow reach them. We present and evaluate an approach to forecast building damage caused by debris flows. We test three alternative models for simulating the motion of debris flows and find that only one can forecast the correct number and spatial pattern of damaged buildings.
Daniel Bolliger, Fritz Schlunegger, and Brian W. McArdell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-126, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-126, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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We analyzed data from the Illgraben debris flow monitoring station, Switzerland, and we modelled these flows with a debris flow runout model. We found that no correlation exists between the grain size distribution, the mineralogical composition of the matrix, and the debris flow properties. Rather, the flow properties appear to be determined by the flow volume, from which most other parameters can be derived.
Stefan Hergarten
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3051–3063, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3051-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3051-2023, 2023
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Rockslides are a major hazard in mountainous regions. In formerly glaciated regions, the disposition mainly arises from oversteepened topography and decreases through time. However, little is known about this decrease and thus about the present-day hazard of huge, potentially catastrophic rockslides. This paper presents a new theoretical framework that explains the decrease in maximum rockslide size through time and predicts the present-day frequency of large rockslides for the European Alps.
Colin K. Bloom, Corinne Singeisen, Timothy Stahl, Andrew Howell, Chris Massey, and Dougal Mason
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2987–3013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2987-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2987-2023, 2023
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Landslides are often observed on coastlines following large earthquakes, but few studies have explored this occurrence. Here, statistical modelling of landslides triggered by the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake in New Zealand is used to investigate factors driving coastal earthquake-induced landslides. Geology, steep slopes, and shaking intensity are good predictors of landslides from the Kaikōura event. Steeper slopes close to the coast provide the best explanation for a high landslide density.
Luke A. McGuire, Francis K. Rengers, Ann M. Youberg, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia J. Hoch, Rebecca Beers, and Ryan Porter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1672, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1672, 2023
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Runoff and erosion increase after fire, leading to a greater likelihood of floods and debris flows. We monitored debris flow activity following a fire in western New Mexico, USA, and observed 16 debris flows over a 2+ year monitoring period. Rainstorms with recurrence intervals of approximately 1 year were sufficient to initiate debris flows. All debris flows initiated during the first several months following the fire, indicating a rapid decrease in debris flow susceptibility over time.
Carlo Tacconi Stefanelli, William Frodella, Francesco Caleca, Zhanar Raimbekova, Ruslan Umuralievd, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-140, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-140, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Central Asia regions are characterized by active tectonics, high mountains with glaciers and strong rainfall. These predisposing factors make large landslides a serious threat in the area and a source of potential damming scenarios which endanger the population. To prevent this, a semi-automated GIS-based mapping method, centred on a bivariate correlation of morphometric parameters, was applied to spatially assess the rivers obstruction in Central Asia.
Yi-Min Huang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2649–2662, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2649-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2649-2023, 2023
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Debris flows are common hazards in Taiwan, and debris-flow early warning is important for disaster responses. The rainfall thresholds of debris flows are analyzed and determined in terms of rainfall intensity, accumulated rainfall, and rainfall duration, based on case histories in Taiwan. These thresholds are useful for disaster management, and the cases in Taiwan are useful for global debris-flow databases.
Davide Notti, Martina Cignetti, Danilo Godone, and Daniele Giordan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2625–2648, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2625-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2625-2023, 2023
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We developed a cost-effective and user-friendly approach to map shallow landslides using free satellite data. Our methodology involves analysing the pre- and post-event NDVI variation to semi-automatically detect areas potentially affected by shallow landslides (PLs). Additionally, we have created Google Earth Engine scripts to rapidly compute NDVI differences and time series of affected areas. Datasets and codes are stored in an open data repository for improvement by the scientific community.
Simon Seelig, Thomas Wagner, Karl Krainer, Michael Avian, Marc Olefs, Klaus Haslinger, and Gerfried Winkler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2547–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2547-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2547-2023, 2023
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A rapid sequence of cascading events involving thermokarst lake outburst, rock glacier front failure, debris flow development, and river blockage hit an alpine valley in Austria during summer 2019. We analyze the environmental conditions initiating the process chain and identify the rapid evolution of a thermokarst channel network as the main driver. Our results highlight the need to account for permafrost degradation in debris flow hazard assessment studies.
Camilla Lanfranconi, Paolo Frattini, Gianluca Sala, Giuseppe Dattola, Davide Bertolo, Juanjuan Sun, and Giovanni Battista Crosta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2349–2363, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2349-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2349-2023, 2023
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This paper presents a study on rockfall dynamics and hazard, examining the impact of the presence of trees along slope and block fragmentation. We compared rockfall simulations that explicitly model the presence of trees and fragmentation with a classical approach that accounts for these phenomena in model parameters (both the hazard and the kinetic energy change). We also used a non-parametric probabilistic rockfall hazard analysis method for hazard mapping.
Ascanio Rosi, William Frodella, Nicola Nocentini, Francesco Caleca, Hans Balder Havenith, Alexander Strom, Mirzo Saidov, Gany Amirgalievich Bimurzaev, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2229–2250, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2229-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2229-2023, 2023
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This work was carried out within the Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) project and is focused on the first landslide susceptibility analysis at a regional scale for Central Asia. The most detailed available landslide inventories were implemented in a random forest model. The final aim was to provide a useful tool for reduction strategies to landslide scientists, practitioners, and administrators.
Francis K. Rengers, Luke A. McGuire, Katherine R. Barnhart, Ann M. Youberg, Daniel Cadol, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia J. Hoch, Rebecca Beers, and Jason W. Kean
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2075–2088, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2075-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2075-2023, 2023
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Debris flows often occur after wildfires. These debris flows move water, sediment, and wood. The wood can get stuck in channels, creating a dam that holds boulders, cobbles, sand, and muddy material. We investigated how the channel width and wood length influenced how much sediment is stored. We also used a series of equations to back calculate the debris flow speed using the breaking threshold of wood. These data will help improve models and provide insight into future field investigations.
Ken'ichi Koshimizu, Satoshi Ishimaru, Fumitoshi Imaizumi, and Gentaro Kawakami
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-24, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-24, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Morphological conditions of drainage basins that classify the presence or absence of debris flow fans were analyzed in areas with different rock strength using decision tree analysis. The relief ratio is the most important morphological factor regardless of the geology. However, the thresholds of morphological parameters needed for forming debris flow fans differs depending on the geology. Decision tree analysis is an effective tool for evaluating the debris flow risk for each geology.
Maxime Morel, Guillaume Piton, Damien Kuss, Guillaume Evin, and Caroline Le Bouteiller
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1769–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1769-2023, 2023
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In mountain catchments, damage during floods is generally primarily driven by the supply of a massive amount of sediment. Predicting how much sediment can be delivered by frequent and infrequent events is thus important in hazard studies. This paper uses data gathered during the maintenance operation of about 100 debris retention basins to build simple equations aiming at predicting sediment supply from simple parameters describing the upstream catchment.
Elsa S. Culler, Ben Livneh, Balaji Rajagopalan, and Kristy F. Tiampo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1631–1652, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1631-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1631-2023, 2023
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Landslides have often been observed in the aftermath of wildfires. This study explores regional patterns in the rainfall that caused landslides both after fires and in unburned locations. In general, landslides that occur after fires are triggered by less rainfall, confirming that fire helps to set the stage for landslides. However, there are regional differences in the ways in which fire impacts landslides, such as the size and direction of shifts in the seasonality of landslides after fires.
Stefan Steger, Mateo Moreno, Alice Crespi, Peter James Zellner, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Maria Teresa Brunetti, Massimo Melillo, Silvia Peruccacci, Francesco Marra, Robin Kohrs, Jason Goetz, Volkmar Mair, and Massimiliano Pittore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1483–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, 2023
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We present a novel data-driven modelling approach to determine season-specific critical precipitation conditions for landslide occurrence. It is shown that the amount of precipitation required to trigger a landslide in South Tyrol varies from season to season. In summer, a higher amount of preparatory precipitation is required to trigger a landslide, probably due to denser vegetation and higher temperatures. We derive dynamic thresholds that directly relate to hit rates and false-alarm rates.
Yaspal Sundriyal, Vipin Kumar, Neha Chauhan, Sameeksha Kaushik, Rahul Ranjan, and Mohit Kumar Punia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1425–1431, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1425-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1425-2023, 2023
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The NW Himalaya has been one of the most affected terrains of the Himalaya, subject to disastrous landslides. This article focuses on two towns (Joshimath and Bhatwari) of the NW Himalaya, which have been witnessing subsidence for decades. We used a slope stability simulation to determine the response of the hillslopes accommodating these towns under various loading conditions. We found that the maximum displacement in these hillslopes might reach up to 20–25 m.
Yu Zhuang, Aiguo Xing, Perry Bartelt, Muhammad Bilal, and Zhaowei Ding
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1257–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1257-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1257-2023, 2023
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Tree destruction is often used to back calculate the air blast impact region and to estimate the air blast power. Here we established a novel model to assess air blast power using tree destruction information. We find that the dynamic magnification effect makes the trees easier to damage by a landslide-induced air blast, but the large tree deformation would weaken the effect. Bending and overturning are two likely failure modes, which depend heavily on the properties of trees.
Suzanne Lapillonne, Firmin Fontaine, Frédéric Liebault, Vincent Richefeu, and Guillaume Piton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1241–1256, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1241-2023, 2023
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Debris flows are fast flows most often found in torrential watersheds. They are composed of two phases: a liquid phase which can be mud-like and a granular phase, including large boulders, transported along with the flow. Due to their destructive nature, accessing features of the flow, such as velocity and flow height, is difficult. We present a protocol to analyse debris flow data and results of the Réal torrent in France. These results will help experts in designing models.
Carlos Millán-Arancibia and Waldo Lavado-Casimiro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1191–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1191-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1191-2023, 2023
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This study is the first approximation of regional rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide occurrence in Peru. This research was generated from a gridded precipitation data and landslide inventory. The analysis showed that the threshold based on the combination of mean daily intensity–duration variables gives the best results for separating rainfall events that generate landslides. Through this work the potential of thresholds for landslide monitoring at the regional scale is demonstrated.
Luca Verrucci, Giovanni Forte, Melania De Falco, Paolo Tommasi, Giuseppe Lanzo, Kevin W. Franke, and Antonio Santo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1177–1190, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1177-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1177-2023, 2023
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Stability analyses in static and seismic conditions were performed on four rockslides that occurred during the main shocks of the 2016–2017 central Italy seismic sequence. These results also indicate that specific structural features of the slope must carefully be accounted for in evaluating potential hazards on transportation infrastructures in mountainous regions.
Enner Alcântara, José A. Marengo, José Mantovani, Luciana R. Londe, Rachel Lau Yu San, Edward Park, Yunung Nina Lin, Jingyu Wang, Tatiana Mendes, Ana Paula Cunha, Luana Pampuch, Marcelo Seluchi, Silvio Simões, Luz Adriana Cuartas, Demerval Goncalves, Klécia Massi, Regina Alvalá, Osvaldo Moraes, Carlos Souza Filho, Rodolfo Mendes, and Carlos Nobre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1157–1175, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1157-2023, 2023
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The municipality of Petrópolis (approximately 305 687 inhabitants) is nestled in the mountains 68 km outside the city of Rio de Janeiro. On 15 February 2022, the city of Petrópolis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, received an unusually high volume of rain within 3 h (258 mm). This resulted in flash floods and subsequent landslides that caused 231 fatalities, the deadliest landslide disaster recorded in Petrópolis. This work shows how the disaster was triggered.
Joshua N. Jones, Georgina L. Bennett, Claudia Abancó, Mark A. M. Matera, and Fibor J. Tan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1095–1115, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1095-2023, 2023
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We modelled where landslides occur in the Philippines using landslide data from three typhoon events in 2009, 2018, and 2019. These models show where landslides occurred within the landscape. By comparing the different models, we found that the 2019 landslides were occurring all across the landscape, whereas the 2009 and 2018 landslides were mostly occurring at specific slope angles and aspects. This shows that landslide susceptibility must be considered variable through space and time.
Shalev Siman-Tov and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1079–1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1079-2023, 2023
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Debris flows represent a threat to infrastructure and the population. In arid areas, they are observed when heavy rainfall hits steep slopes with sediments. Here, we use digital surface models and radar rainfall data to detect and characterize the triggering and non-triggering rainfall conditions. We find that rainfall intensity alone is insufficient to explain the triggering. We suggest that antecedent rainfall could represent a critical factor for debris flow triggering in arid regions.
Xun Huang, Zhijian Zhang, and Guoping Xiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 871–889, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-871-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-871-2023, 2023
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A sensitivity analysis on the building impact force resulting from the representative built environment parameters is executed through the FLOW-3D model. The surrounding buildings' properties, especially the azimuthal angle, have been confirmed to play significant roles in determining the peak impact forces. The single and combined effects of built environments are analyzed in detail. This will improve understanding of vulnerability assessment and migration design against debris flow hazards.
Jean-Claude Maki Mateso, Charles L. Bielders, Elise Monsieurs, Arthur Depicker, Benoît Smets, Théophile Tambala, Luc Bagalwa Mateso, and Olivier Dewitte
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 643–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-643-2023, 2023
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This research highlights the importance of human activities on the occurrence of landslides and the need to consider this context when studying hillslope instability patterns in regions under anthropogenic pressure. Also, this study highlights the importance of considering the timing of landslides and hence the added value of using historical information for compiling an inventory.
Jakob Rom, Florian Haas, Tobias Heckmann, Moritz Altmann, Fabian Fleischer, Camillo Ressl, Sarah Betz-Nutz, and Michael Becht
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 601–622, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-601-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-601-2023, 2023
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In this study, an area-wide slope-type debris flow record has been established for Horlachtal, Austria, since 1947 based on historical and recent remote sensing data. Spatial and temporal analyses show variations in debris flow activity in space and time in a high-alpine region. The results can contribute to a better understanding of past slope-type debris flow dynamics in the context of extreme precipitation events and their possible future development.
Tom Birien and Francis Gauthier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 343–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-343-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-343-2023, 2023
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On highly fractured rockwalls such as those found in northern Gaspésie, most rockfalls are triggered by weather conditions. This study highlights that in winter, rockfall frequency is 12 times higher during a superficial thaw than during a cold period in which temperature remains below 0 °C. In summer, rockfall frequency is 22 times higher during a heavy rainfall event than during a mainly dry period. This knowledge could be used to implement a risk management strategy.
Nunziarita Palazzolo, David J. Peres, Enrico Creaco, and Antonino Cancelliere
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 279–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-279-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-279-2023, 2023
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We propose an approach exploiting PCA to derive hydrometeorological landslide-triggering thresholds using multi-layered soil moisture data from ERA5-Land reanalysis. Comparison of thresholds based on single- and multi-layered soil moisture information provides a means to identify the significance of multi-layered data for landslide triggering in a region. In Sicily, the proposed approach yields thresholds with a higher performance than traditional precipitation-based ones (TSS = 0.71 vs. 0.50).
Raphael Knevels, Helene Petschko, Herwig Proske, Philip Leopold, Aditya N. Mishra, Douglas Maraun, and Alexander Brenning
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 205–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-205-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-205-2023, 2023
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In summer 2009 and 2014, rainfall events occurred in the Styrian Basin (Austria), triggering thousands of landslides. Landslide storylines help to show potential future changes under changing environmental conditions. The often neglected uncertainty quantification was the aim of this study. We found uncertainty arising from the landslide model to be of the same order as climate scenario uncertainty. Understanding the dimensions of uncertainty is crucial for allowing informed decision-making.
Fabian Walter, Elias Hodel, Erik S. Mannerfelt, Kristen Cook, Michael Dietze, Livia Estermann, Michaela Wenner, Daniel Farinotti, Martin Fengler, Lukas Hammerschmidt, Flavia Hänsli, Jacob Hirschberg, Brian McArdell, and Peter Molnar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4011–4018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4011-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4011-2022, 2022
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Debris flows are dangerous sediment–water mixtures in steep terrain. Their formation takes place in poorly accessible terrain where instrumentation cannot be installed. Here we propose to monitor such source terrain with an autonomous drone for mapping sediments which were left behind by debris flows or may contribute to future events. Short flight intervals elucidate changes of such sediments, providing important information for landscape evolution and the likelihood of future debris flows.
Marc Peruzzetto, Yoann Legendre, Aude Nachbaur, Thomas J. B. Dewez, Yannick Thiery, Clara Levy, and Benoit Vittecoq
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3973–3992, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3973-2022, 2022
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Volcanic edifices result from successive construction and dismantling phases. Thus, the geological units forming volcanoes display complex geometries. We show that such geometries can be reconstructed thanks to aerial views, topographic surveys and photogrammetric models. In our case study of the Samperre cliff (Martinique, Lesser Antilles), it allows us to link destabilizations from a rocky cliff to the existence of a filled paleo-valley and estimate a potentially unstable volume.
Abdellah Khouz, Jorge Trindade, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Fatima El Bchari, Blaid Bougadir, Ricardo A. C. Garcia, and Mourad Jadoud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3793–3814, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3793-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3793-2022, 2022
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The aim of this study was to assess the landslide susceptibility of the rocky coast of Essaouira using the information value model. The resulting susceptibility maps could be used for both environmental protection and general planning of future development activities.
Kamal Rana, Nishant Malik, and Ugur Ozturk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3751–3764, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3751-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3751-2022, 2022
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The landslide hazard models assist in mitigating losses due to landslides. However, these models depend on landslide databases, which often have missing triggering information, rendering these databases unusable for landslide hazard models. In this work, we developed a Python library, Landsifier, consisting of three different methods to identify the triggers of landslides. These methods can classify landslide triggers with high accuracy using only a landslide polygon shapefile as an input.
Axel A. J. Deijns, Olivier Dewitte, Wim Thiery, Nicolas d'Oreye, Jean-Philippe Malet, and François Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3679–3700, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3679-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3679-2022, 2022
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Landslides and flash floods are rainfall-induced processes that often co-occur and interact, generally very quickly. In mountainous cloud-covered environments, determining when these processes occur remains challenging. We propose a regional methodology using open-access satellite radar images that allow for the timing of landslide and flash floods events, in the contrasting landscapes of tropical Africa, with an accuracy of up to a few days. The methodology shows potential for transferability.
Judith Uwihirwe, Alessia Riveros, Hellen Wanjala, Jaap Schellekens, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Markus Hrachowitz, and Thom A. Bogaard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3641–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3641-2022, 2022
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This study compared gauge-based and satellite-based precipitation products. Similarly, satellite- and hydrological model-derived soil moisture was compared to in situ soil moisture and used in landslide hazard assessment and warning. The results reveal the cumulative 3 d rainfall from the NASA-GPM to be the most effective landslide trigger. The modelled antecedent soil moisture in the root zone was the most informative hydrological variable for landslide hazard assessment and warning in Rwanda.
Hans-Balder Havenith, Kelly Guerrier, Romy Schlögel, Anika Braun, Sophia Ulysse, Anne-Sophie Mreyen, Karl-Henry Victor, Newdeskarl Saint-Fleur, Léna Cauchie, Dominique Boisson, and Claude Prépetit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3361–3384, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3361-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3361-2022, 2022
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We present a new landslide inventory for the 2021, M 7.2, Haiti, earthquake. We compare characteristics of this inventory with those of the 2010 seismically induced landslides, highlighting the much larger total area of 2021 landslides. This fact could be related to the larger earthquake magnitude in 2021, to the more central location of the fault segment ruptured in 2021 with respect to coastal zones, and/or to possible climatic preconditioning of slope failures in the 2021 affected area.
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Shashank Bhushan, Mylène Jacquemart, César Deschamps-Berger, Etienne Berthier, Simon Gascoin, David E. Shean, Dan H. Shugar, and Andreas Kääb
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3309–3327, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022, 2022
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On 7 February 2021, a large rock–ice avalanche occurred in Chamoli, Indian Himalaya. The resulting debris flow swept down the nearby valley, leaving over 200 people dead or missing. We use a range of satellite datasets to investigate how the collapse area changed prior to collapse. We show that signs of instability were visible as early 5 years prior to collapse. However, it would likely not have been possible to predict the timing of the event from current satellite datasets.
Bastian van den Bout, Chenxiao Tang, Cees van Westen, and Victor Jetten
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3183–3209, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3183-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3183-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazards such as earthquakes, landslides, and flooding do not always occur as stand-alone events. After the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, a co-seismic landslide blocked a stream in Hongchun. Two years later, a debris flow breached the material, blocked the Min River, and resulted in flooding of a small town. We developed a multi-process model that captures the full cascade. Despite input and process uncertainties, probability of flooding was high due to topography and trigger intensities.
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Short summary
The influence of meteorological conditions on rockfall occurrence has been often highlighted, but quantitative analyses are rare. A near-continuous survey of a limestone cliff has shown that the rockfall frequency can be multiplied by 7 during freeze-thaw episodes and 26 when the mean rainfall intensity (since the beginning of the rainfall episode) is higher than 5 mm h−1. Based on these results, a three-level scale has been proposed for predicting the temporal variations of rockfall frequency.
The influence of meteorological conditions on rockfall occurrence has been often highlighted,...
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