Drift simulation of MH370 debris using superensemble techniques

Jansen, Eric; Coppini, Giovanni; Pinardi, Nadia

doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1623-2016

Articles | Volume 16, issue 7

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1623-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue:

Situational sea awareness technologies for maritime safety...

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1623-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 16, issue 7

Research article

|

27 Jul 2016

Research article |

| 27 Jul 2016

Drift simulation of MH370 debris using superensemble techniques

Eric Jansen, Giovanni Coppini, and Nadia Pinardi

Viewed

Total article views: 8,805 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML	PDF	XML	Total	BibTeX	EndNote
6,369	2,230	206	8,805	228	252

HTML: 6,369
PDF: 2,230
XML: 206
Total: 8,805
BibTeX: 228
EndNote: 252

Views and downloads (calculated since 30 Mar 2016)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Mar 2016	26	11	2	39
Apr 2016	63	25	1	89
May 2016	42	11	1	54
Jun 2016	18	4	1	23
Jul 2016	974	232	18	1,224
Aug 2016	357	83	8	448
Sep 2016	99	20	1	120
Oct 2016	72	9	0	81
Nov 2016	70	54	4	128
Dec 2016	41	12	1	54
Jan 2017	113	34	1	148
Feb 2017	62	8	4	74
Mar 2017	120	26	0	146
Apr 2017	210	38	6	254
May 2017	118	35	11	164
Jun 2017	107	28	4	139
Jul 2017	89	29	1	119
Aug 2017	51	27	1	79
Sep 2017	51	23	3	77
Oct 2017	48	22	0	70
Nov 2017	34	23	0	57
Dec 2017	27	19	1	47
Jan 2018	93	34	1	128
Feb 2018	38	16	0	54
Mar 2018	39	24	3	66
Apr 2018	36	16	0	52
May 2018	43	24	0	67
Jun 2018	34	39	1	74
Jul 2018	39	26	3	68
Aug 2018	49	24	4	77
Sep 2018	47	18	4	69
Oct 2018	35	26	4	65
Nov 2018	42	22	2	66
Dec 2018	24	20	0	44
Jan 2019	21	17	1	39
Feb 2019	15	12	2	29
Mar 2019	14	11	0	25
Apr 2019	21	12	0	33
May 2019	31	18	0	49
Jun 2019	32	11	0	43
Jul 2019	20	19	0	39
Aug 2019	19	11	0	30
Sep 2019	14	10	0	24
Oct 2019	26	12	0	38
Nov 2019	14	11	1	26
Dec 2019	10	6	0	16
Jan 2020	19	11	3	33
Feb 2020	12	9	0	21
Mar 2020	21	10	0	31
Apr 2020	41	9	0	50
May 2020	62	18	1	81
Jun 2020	50	16	1	67
Jul 2020	38	22	9	69
Aug 2020	42	20	4	66
Sep 2020	43	13	0	56
Oct 2020	23	12	1	36
Nov 2020	25	18	3	46
Dec 2020	44	12	1	57
Jan 2021	56	12	0	68
Feb 2021	38	15	1	54
Mar 2021	38	14	0	52
Apr 2021	23	9	1	33
May 2021	41	13	0	54
Jun 2021	38	14	0	52
Jul 2021	33	20	0	53
Aug 2021	12	11	1	24
Sep 2021	18	21	0	39
Oct 2021	15	35	0	50
Nov 2021	17	28	0	45
Dec 2021	26	19	0	45
Jan 2022	31	28	0	59
Feb 2022	20	6	2	28
Mar 2022	22	9	1	32
Apr 2022	23	11	2	36
May 2022	30	11	1	42
Jun 2022	21	10	1	32
Jul 2022	29	11	2	42
Aug 2022	28	9	3	40
Sep 2022	27	7	1	35
Oct 2022	16	8	1	25
Nov 2022	39	13	0	52
Dec 2022	33	8	0	41
Jan 2023	31	13	2	46
Feb 2023	35	14	2	51
Mar 2023	63	27	6	96
Apr 2023	32	14	0	46
May 2023	47	17	3	67
Jun 2023	56	6	0	62
Jul 2023	33	9	2	44
Aug 2023	75	15	2	92
Sep 2023	81	7	0	88
Oct 2023	45	9	0	54
Nov 2023	24	6	0	30
Dec 2023	61	16	4	81
Jan 2024	31	6	1	38
Feb 2024	27	10	4	41
Mar 2024	94	14	4	112
Apr 2024	40	14	4	58
May 2024	33	26	6	65
Jun 2024	53	10	2	65
Jul 2024	35	11	4	50
Aug 2024	44	17	4	65
Sep 2024	27	9	2	38
Oct 2024	46	14	1	61
Nov 2024	19	5	1	25
Dec 2024	25	18	1	44
Jan 2025	35	11	0	46
Feb 2025	55	12	3	70
Mar 2025	43	8	1	52
Apr 2025	55	19	2	76
May 2025	53	20	1	74
Jun 2025	85	32	1	118
Jul 2025	52	23	3	78
Aug 2025	84	11	1	96
Sep 2025	74	21	2	97
Oct 2025	75	24	2	101
Nov 2025	59	18	0	77

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 30 Mar 2016)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Mar 2016	26	11	2	39
Apr 2016	63	25	1	89
May 2016	42	11	1	54
Jun 2016	18	4	1	23
Jul 2016	974	232	18	1,224
Aug 2016	357	83	8	448
Sep 2016	99	20	1	120
Oct 2016	72	9	0	81
Nov 2016	70	54	4	128
Dec 2016	41	12	1	54
Jan 2017	113	34	1	148
Feb 2017	62	8	4	74
Mar 2017	120	26	0	146
Apr 2017	210	38	6	254
May 2017	118	35	11	164
Jun 2017	107	28	4	139
Jul 2017	89	29	1	119
Aug 2017	51	27	1	79
Sep 2017	51	23	3	77
Oct 2017	48	22	0	70
Nov 2017	34	23	0	57
Dec 2017	27	19	1	47
Jan 2018	93	34	1	128
Feb 2018	38	16	0	54
Mar 2018	39	24	3	66
Apr 2018	36	16	0	52
May 2018	43	24	0	67
Jun 2018	34	39	1	74
Jul 2018	39	26	3	68
Aug 2018	49	24	4	77
Sep 2018	47	18	4	69
Oct 2018	35	26	4	65
Nov 2018	42	22	2	66
Dec 2018	24	20	0	44
Jan 2019	21	17	1	39
Feb 2019	15	12	2	29
Mar 2019	14	11	0	25
Apr 2019	21	12	0	33
May 2019	31	18	0	49
Jun 2019	32	11	0	43
Jul 2019	20	19	0	39
Aug 2019	19	11	0	30
Sep 2019	14	10	0	24
Oct 2019	26	12	0	38
Nov 2019	14	11	1	26
Dec 2019	10	6	0	16
Jan 2020	19	11	3	33
Feb 2020	12	9	0	21
Mar 2020	21	10	0	31
Apr 2020	41	9	0	50
May 2020	62	18	1	81
Jun 2020	50	16	1	67
Jul 2020	38	22	9	69
Aug 2020	42	20	4	66
Sep 2020	43	13	0	56
Oct 2020	23	12	1	36
Nov 2020	25	18	3	46
Dec 2020	44	12	1	57
Jan 2021	56	12	0	68
Feb 2021	38	15	1	54
Mar 2021	38	14	0	52
Apr 2021	23	9	1	33
May 2021	41	13	0	54
Jun 2021	38	14	0	52
Jul 2021	33	20	0	53
Aug 2021	12	11	1	24
Sep 2021	18	21	0	39
Oct 2021	15	35	0	50
Nov 2021	17	28	0	45
Dec 2021	26	19	0	45
Jan 2022	31	28	0	59
Feb 2022	20	6	2	28
Mar 2022	22	9	1	32
Apr 2022	23	11	2	36
May 2022	30	11	1	42
Jun 2022	21	10	1	32
Jul 2022	29	11	2	42
Aug 2022	28	9	3	40
Sep 2022	27	7	1	35
Oct 2022	16	8	1	25
Nov 2022	39	13	0	52
Dec 2022	33	8	0	41
Jan 2023	31	13	2	46
Feb 2023	35	14	2	51
Mar 2023	63	27	6	96
Apr 2023	32	14	0	46
May 2023	47	17	3	67
Jun 2023	56	6	0	62
Jul 2023	33	9	2	44
Aug 2023	75	15	2	92
Sep 2023	81	7	0	88
Oct 2023	45	9	0	54
Nov 2023	24	6	0	30
Dec 2023	61	16	4	81
Jan 2024	31	6	1	38
Feb 2024	27	10	4	41
Mar 2024	94	14	4	112
Apr 2024	40	14	4	58
May 2024	33	26	6	65
Jun 2024	53	10	2	65
Jul 2024	35	11	4	50
Aug 2024	44	17	4	65
Sep 2024	27	9	2	38
Oct 2024	46	14	1	61
Nov 2024	19	5	1	25
Dec 2024	25	18	1	44
Jan 2025	35	11	0	46
Feb 2025	55	12	3	70
Mar 2025	43	8	1	52
Apr 2025	55	19	2	76
May 2025	53	20	1	74
Jun 2025	85	32	1	118
Jul 2025	52	23	3	78
Aug 2025	84	11	1	96
Sep 2025	74	21	2	97
Oct 2025	75	24	2	101
Nov 2025	59	18	0	77

Latest update: 17 Nov 2025

Short summary

In March 2014, a commercial airliner vanished without a trace. The main wreckage of the plane was never recovered, except for some small parts that washed up more than 17 months after the disappearance. In this paper we show a method to model the most likely trajectories of floating debris from the aircraft. The results show that the assumed area of the crash site is compatible with the recovered debris and predict that further debris may be found along the African east coast.