Articles | Volume 15, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-59-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-59-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Jan 2015
Research article |
| 12 Jan 2015
Risk to life due to flooding in post-Katrina New Orleans
A. Miller
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Civil Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands
S. N. Jonkman
Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands
M. Van Ledden
Royal Haskoning DHV, Rdam, the Netherlands
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Roberto Bentivoglio, Elvin Isufi, Sebastiaan Nicolas Jonkman, and Riccardo Taormina
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4227–4246, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4227-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4227-2023, 2023
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To overcome the computational cost of numerical models, we propose a deep-learning approach inspired by hydraulic models that can simulate the spatio-temporal evolution of floods. We show that the model can rapidly predict dike breach floods over different topographies and breach locations, with limited use of ground-truth data.
Hanqing Xu, Elisa Ragno, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Jun Wang, Jeremy D. Bricker, Zhan Tian, and Laixiang Sun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-261, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-261, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for HESS
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A coupled statistical-hydrodynamic model framework is used to quantitatively assess the sensitivity of the compound flood hazard to the relative timing between peak surge and rainfall. The results indicate that the timing difference between storm surges and rainfall plays a crucial role in flood inundation depth and extension. The most severe inundation occurs when rainfall precedes the storm surge peak of 2 hours.
Roberto Bentivoglio, Elvin Isufi, Sebastian Nicolaas Jonkman, and Riccardo Taormina
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4345–4378, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4345-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4345-2022, 2022
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Deep learning methods have been increasingly used in flood management to improve traditional techniques. While promising results have been obtained, our review shows significant challenges in building deep learning models that can (i) generalize across multiple scenarios, (ii) account for complex interactions, and (iii) perform probabilistic predictions. We argue that these shortcomings could be addressed by transferring recent fundamental advancements in deep learning to flood mapping.
Julius Schlumberger, Christian Ferrarin, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Manuel Andres Diaz Loaiza, Alessandro Antonini, and Sandra Fatorić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2381–2400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2381-2022, 2022
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Flooding has serious impacts on the old town of Venice. This paper presents a framework combining a flood model with a flood-impact model to support improving protection against future floods in Venice despite the recently built MOSE barrier. Applying the framework to seven plausible flood scenarios, it was found that individual protection has a significant damage-mediating effect if the MOSE barrier does not operate as anticipated. Contingency planning thus remains important in Venice.
Manuel Andres Diaz Loaiza, Jeremy D. Bricker, Remi Meynadier, Trang Minh Duong, Rosh Ranasinghe, and Sebastiaan N. Jonkman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 345–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-345-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-345-2022, 2022
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Extratropical cyclones are one of the major causes of coastal floods in Europe and the world. Understanding the development process and the flooding of storm Xynthia, together with the damages that occurred during the storm, can help to forecast future losses due to other similar storms. In the present paper, an analysis of shallow water variables (flood depth, velocity, etc.) or coastal variables (significant wave height, energy flux, etc.) is done in order to develop damage curves.
Christopher H. Lashley, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Jentsje van der Meer, Jeremy D. Bricker, and Vincent Vuik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1-2022, 2022
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Many coastlines around the world have shallow foreshores (e.g. salt marshes and mudflats) that reduce storm waves and the risk of coastal flooding. However, most of the studies that tried to quantify this effect have excluded the influence of very long waves, which often dominate in shallow water. Our newly developed framework addresses this oversight and suggests that safety along these coastlines may be overestimated, since these very long waves are largely neglected in flood risk assessments.
Roberto Bentivoglio, Elvin Isufi, Sebastian Nicolaas Jonkman, and Riccardo Taormina
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-614, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-614, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Deep Learning methods have been increasingly used in flood mapping as an alternative to traditional modeling techniques. While promising results have been obtained, our review shows significant challenges in building Deep Learning models that can generalize across multiple scenarios, account for complex interactions, and provide probabilistic predictions. We argue that these shortcomings could be addressed by transferring recent fundamental advancements in Deep Learning.
Erik C. van Berchum, Mathijs van Ledden, Jos S. Timmermans, Jan H. Kwakkel, and Sebastiaan N. Jonkman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2633-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2633-2020, 2020
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Flood risk management is especially complicated in coastal cities. The complexity of multiple flood hazards in a rapidly changing urban environment leads to a situation with many different potential measures and future scenarios. This research demonstrates a new model capable of quickly simulating flood impact and comparing many different strategies. This is applied to the city of Beira, where it was able to provide new insights into the local flood risk and potential strategies.
Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Maartje Godfroy, Antonia Sebastian, and Bas Kolen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1073–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1073-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1073-2018, 2018
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An analysis was made of the loss of life directly caused by Hurricane Harvey. Information was collected for 70 fatalities that occurred directly due to the event. Most of the fatalities occurred in the greater Houston area, which was most severely affected by extreme rainfall and heavy flooding. The majority of fatalities in this area were recovered outside the designated 100- and 500-year flood zones. Most fatalities occurred due to drowning (81 %), particularly in and around vehicles.
Dominik Paprotny, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, and Luc Feyen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-132, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
Dominik Paprotny, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles, and Sebastiaan N. Jonkman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 565–581, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-565-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-565-2018, 2018
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Natural hazards affect areas with various population density, economic production value and preparedness. This database will help to assess the impact of hazards in Europe in a long-term perspective. It contains data on losses, dates and location of 1564 floods from 1870–2016 in 37 countries. For the same area and timeframe, land use, population and asset value were reconstructed. Combining both data sets, one can correct the amount of losses from past events for demographic and economic growth.
Dominik Paprotny, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles, and Sebastiaan N. Jonkman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1267–1283, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1267-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1267-2017, 2017
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Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-725, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-725, 2024
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, 2024
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, 2024
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
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Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
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Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
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Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
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Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, 2024
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Contributions to social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness constitute the parameters to test applications in disaster risk management. We propose an evaluation of four of these: mobile positioning data, social media crowdsourcing, drones, and satellite imaging. The analysis grants the opportunity to investigate how different methods to evaluate surveys' results may influence final preferences. We find that the different assumptions on which these methods rely deliver diverging results.
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024
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This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of emergency medical services (EMSs) in Beijing, China, and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely EMSs under inclement weather. We found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of EMSs by up to 40%. Furthermore, towns with lower baseline EMSs accessibility are more vulnerable when inclement weather occurs.
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
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Emilio Berny, Carlos Avelar, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mario Ordaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024
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This paper presents a methodology to estimate the total emergency costs based on modelled damages for earthquakes and floods, together with the demographic and building characteristics of the study area. The methodology has been applied in five countries in central Asia, the first time that these estimates are made available for the study area and are intended to be useful for regional and local stakeholders and decision makers.
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-5, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-5, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This study delves into 1) compounded impacts and 2) the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an Impact Chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The Impact Chain shows that 1) the unforseen implications of impacts, 2) wrongful action of adaptation options, and 3) inaction can set the premises for increased vulnerability.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
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We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Hannes Lauer, Carmeli Marie C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, and Jörn Birkmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-50, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-50, 2024
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In many urban areas, people face high exposure to hazards. Resettling them to safer locations becomes a major strategy, not least because of climate change. This paper dives into the success factors of government-led resettlement in Manila and finds surprising results, which challenge the usual narrative and fuel the conversation on resettlement as an adaptation strategy. Other as expected, the location – whether urban or rural – of the new home is less important as the safety from floods.
Francesco Caleca, Chiara Scaini, William Frodella, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 13–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, 2024
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Landslide risk analysis is a powerful tool because it allows us to identify where physical and economic losses could occur due to a landslide event. The purpose of our work was to provide the first regional-scale analysis of landslide risk for central Asia, and it represents an advanced step in the field of risk analysis for very large areas. Our findings show, per square kilometer, a total risk of about USD 3.9 billion and a mean risk of USD 0.6 million.
Marta Sapena, Moritz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3913–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, 2023
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A new approach for the deployment of landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) is proposed. We combine data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping and population maps to identify exposed locations. We estimate the cost of monitoring sensors and demonstrate that LEWSs could be installed with a budget ranging from EUR 5 to EUR 41 per person in Medellín, Colombia. We provide recommendations for stakeholders and outline the challenges and opportunities for successful LEWS implementation.
Dong Qiu, Binglin Lv, Yuepeng Cui, and Zexiong Zhan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3789–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, 2023
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This paper divides preparedness behavior into minimal and adequate preparedness. In addition to studying the main factors that promote families' disaster preparedness, we also study the moderating effects of response efficacy and self-efficacy on preparedness actions by vulnerable families. Based on the findings of this study, policymakers can target interventions and programs that can be designed to remedy the current lack of disaster preparedness education for vulnerable families.
Jenni Barclay, Richie Robertson, and M. Teresa Armijos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3603–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, 2023
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Stories create avenues for sharing the meanings and social implications of scientific knowledge. We explore their value when told between scientists during a volcanic eruption. They are important vehicles for understanding how risk is generated during volcanic eruptions and create new knowledge about these interactions. Stories explore how risk is negotiated when scientific information is ambiguous or uncertain, identify cause and effect, and rationalize the emotional intensity of a crisis.
Isabelle Ousset, Guillaume Evin, Damien Raynaud, and Thierry Faug
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3509–3523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, 2023
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This paper deals with an exceptional snow and rain event in a Mediterranean region of France which is usually not prone to heavy snowfall and its consequences on a particular building that collapsed completely. Independent analyses of the meteorological episode are carried out, and the response of the building to different snow and rain loads is confronted to identify the main critical factors that led to the collapse.
Jiachang Tu, Jiahong Wen, Liang Emlyn Yang, Andrea Reimuth, Stephen S. Young, Min Zhang, Luyang Wang, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3247–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, 2023
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This paper evaluates the flood risk and the resulting patterns in buildings following low-probability, high-impact flood scenarios by a risk analysis chain in Shanghai. The results provide a benchmark and also a clear future for buildings with respect to flood risks in Shanghai. This study links directly to disaster risk management, e.g., the Shanghai Master Plan. We also discussed different potential adaptation options for flood risk management.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Elias Dimitriou, Angeliki Mentzafou, Christina Papadaki, Maria Stoumboudi, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-173, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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~820 km2 of agricultural land is inundated in central Greece due to storm Daniel flood. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimated more than 14,000 ornithoids and 21,500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe.
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2185, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2185, 2023
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Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho-Chi-Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Ignace Pelckmans, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Luis E. Dominguez-Granda, Cornelis Slobbe, Stijn Temmerman, and Olivier Gourgue
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3169–3183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, 2023
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Mangroves are increasingly recognized as a coastal protection against extreme sea levels. Their effectiveness in doing so, however, is still poorly understood, as mangroves are typically located in tropical countries where data on mangrove vegetation and topography properties are often scarce. Through a modelling study, we identified the degree of channelization and the mangrove forest floor topography as the key properties for regulating high water levels in a tropical delta.
André Felipe Rocha Silva and Julian Cardoso Eleutério
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3095–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, 2023
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This work evaluates the application of flood consequence models through their application in a real case related to a tailings dam failure. Furthermore, we simulated the implementation of less efficient alert systems on life-loss alleviation. The results revealed that the models represented the event well and were able to estimate the relevance of implementing efficient alert systems. They highlight that their use may be an important tool for new regulations for dam safety legislation.
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Marcos Roberto Benso, Karina Simone Sass, Adelaide Cassia Nardocci, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Greicelene Jesus da Silva, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Abdullah Konak, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, and Michael Jacobson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2042, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2042, 2023
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With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of the surveys, to help further research.
Vakhitkhan Alikhanovich Ismailov, Sharofiddin Ismatullayevich Yodgorov, Akhror Sabriddinovich Khusomiddinov, Eldor Makhmadiyorovich Yadigarov, Bekzod Uktamovich Aktamov, and Shuhrat Avazov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-105, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-105, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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For the basis of seismic risk assessment, maps of seismic intensity increment and an improved map of seismic hazard have been developed, taking into account the engineering-geological conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan and the seismic characteristics of soils. For seismic risk map development, databases were created based on GIS platforms allowing us to systematize and evaluate the regional distribution of information.
Max Schneider, Fabrice Cotton, and Pia-Johanna Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2505–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, 2023
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Hazard maps are fundamental to earthquake risk reduction, but research is missing on how to design them. We review the visualization literature to identify evidence-based criteria for color and classification schemes for hazard maps. We implement these for the German seismic hazard map, focusing on communicating four properties of seismic hazard. Our evaluation finds that the redesigned map successfully communicates seismic hazard in Germany, improving on the baseline map for two key properties.
Leon Scheiber, Christoph Gabriel David, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, Roxana Leitold, Javier Revilla Diez, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2333–2347, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, 2023
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Like many other megacities in low-elevation coastal zones, Ho Chi Minh City in southern Vietnam suffers from the convoluting impact of changing environmental stressors and rapid urbanization. This study assesses quantitative hydro-numerical results against the background of the low-regret paradigm for (1) a large-scale flood protection scheme as currently constructed and (2) the widespread implementation of small-scale rainwater detention as envisioned in the Chinese Sponge City Program.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2251–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, 2023
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This study presents a framework for assessing compound flood risk using hydrodynamic, impact, and statistical modeling. A pilot in Mozambique shows the importance of accounting for compound events in risk assessments. We also show how the framework can be used to assess the effectiveness of different risk reduction measures. As the framework is based on global datasets and is largely automated, it can easily be applied in other areas for first-order assessments of compound flood risk.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2203–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, 2023
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To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-81, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-81, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Iranian insurers has been offering earthquake cover since 1990's. However, despite international best practices they do not still use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to continue accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practice with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modelling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
Oya Kalaycıoğlu, Serhat Emre Akhanlı, Emin Yahya Menteşe, Mehmet Kalaycıoğlu, and Sibel Kalaycıoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2133–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, 2023
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The associations between household characteristics and hazard-related social vulnerability in Istanbul, Türkiye, were assessed using machine learning techniques. The results indicated that less educated households with no social security and job insecurity that live in squatter houses are at a higher risk of social vulnerability. We present the findings in an open-access R Shiny web application, which can serve as a guidance for identifying the target groups in the interest of risk mitigation.
Gregor Ortner, Michael Bründl, Chahan M. Kropf, Thomas Röösli, Yves Bühler, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2089–2110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, 2023
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This paper presents a new approach to assess avalanche risk on a large scale in mountainous regions. It combines a large-scale avalanche modeling method with a state-of-the-art probabilistic risk tool. Over 40 000 individual avalanches were simulated, and a building dataset with over 13 000 single buildings was investigated. With this new method, risk hotspots can be identified and surveyed. This enables current and future risk analysis to assist decision makers in risk reduction and adaptation.
Prateek Arora and Luis Ceferino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1665–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, 2023
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Power outage models can help utilities manage risks for outages from hurricanes. Our article reviews the existing outage models during hurricanes and highlights their strengths and limitations. Existing models can give erroneous estimates with outage predictions larger than the number of customers, can struggle with predictions for catastrophic hurricanes, and do not adequately represent infrastructure failure's uncertainties. We suggest models for the future that can overcome these challenges.
Huige Xing, Ting Que, Yuxin Wu, Shiyu Hu, Haibo Li, Hongyang Li, Martin Skitmore, and Nima Talebian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1529–1547, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, 2023
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Disaster risk reduction requires public power. The aim of this study is to investigate the factors influencing the public's intention to participate in disaster risk reduction. An empirical study was conducted using structural equation modeling data analysis methods. The findings show that public attitudes, perceptions of those around them, ability to participate, and sense of participation are important factors.
Di Wang, Ming Wang, Kai Liu, and Jun Xie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1409–1423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, 2023
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The short–medium-term intervention effect on the post-earthquake area was analysed by simulations in different scenarios. The sediment transport patterns varied in different sub-regions, and the relative effectiveness in different scenarios changed over time with a general downward trend, where the steady stage implicated the scenario with more facilities performing better in controlling sediment output. Therefore, the simulation methods could support optimal rehabilitation strategies.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Roberto Fray Silva, Greicelene Jesus Silva, Luis Miguel Castillo Rápalo, Fabricio Alonso Richmond Navarro, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antônio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1335–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, 2023
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This article is about how farmers can better protect themselves from disasters like droughts, extreme temperatures, and floods. The authors suggest that one way to do this is by offering insurance contracts that cover these different types of disasters. By having this insurance, farmers can receive financial support and recover more quickly. The article elicits different ideas about how to design this type of insurance and suggests ways to make it better.
Shivani Chouhan and Mahua Mukherjee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1267–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, 2023
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The Himalayas are prone to multi-hazards. To minimise loss, proper planning and execution are necessary. Data collection is the basis of any risk assessment process. This enhanced survey form is easy to understand and pictorial and identifies high-risk components of any building (structural and non-structural) surrounded by multi-hazards. Its results can help to utilise the budget in a prioritised way. A SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities) analysis has been performed.
Thulasi Vishwanath Harish, Nivedita Sairam, Liang Emlyn Yang, Matthias Garschagen, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, 2023
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Coastal Asian cities are becoming more vulnerable to flooding. In this study we analyse the data collected from flood-prone houses in Ho Chi Minh City to identify what motivates the households to adopt flood precautionary measures. The results revealed that educating the households about the available flood precautionary measures and communicating the flood protection measures taken by the government encourage the households to adopt measures without having to experience multiple flood events.
Annegret H. Thieken, Philip Bubeck, Anna Heidenreich, Jennifer von Keyserlingk, Lisa Dillenardt, and Antje Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 973–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, 2023
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In July 2021 intense rainfall caused devastating floods in western Europe with 184 fatalities in the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), calling their warning system into question. An online survey revealed that 35 % of respondents from NW and 29 % from RP did not receive any warning. Many of those who were warned did not expect severe flooding, nor did they know how to react. The study provides entry points for improving Germany's warning system.
Blaise Mafuko Nyandwi, Matthieu Kervyn, François Muhashy Habiyaremye, François Kervyn, and Caroline Michellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 933–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, 2023
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Risk perception involves the processes of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about the uncertain impacts of hazards. It may contribute to improving risk communication and motivating the protective behaviour of the population living near volcanoes. Our work describes the spatial variation and factors influencing volcanic risk perception of 2204 adults of Goma exposed to Nyiragongo. It contributes to providing a case study for risk perception understanding in the Global South.
Fatemeh Jalayer, Hossein Ebrahimian, Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, and Brendon Bradley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 909–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, 2023
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Assessing tsunami fragility and the related uncertainties is crucial in the evaluation of incurred losses. Empirical fragility modelling is based on observed tsunami intensity and damage data. Fragility curves for hierarchical damage levels are distinguished by their laminar shape; that is, the curves should not intersect. However, this condition is not satisfied automatically. We present a workflow for hierarchical fragility modelling, uncertainty propagation and fragility model selection.
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Wolshon, B.: Evacuation planning and engineering for Hurricane Katrina, Roads Bridges, 36, 27–34, 2006.
Short summary
After Hurricane Katrina in 2005, New Orleans’ hurricane protection was improved to withstand a 1/100 per year hurricane. This paper quantifies the risk to life in post-Katrina New Orleans. When compared to risks of other large-scale engineering systems (e.g. other flood prone areas, dams and the nuclear sector) and acceptable risk criteria, results indicate the risk to life is significant. Results and methods of this study can inform future flood protection management and risk communication.
After Hurricane Katrina in 2005, New Orleans’ hurricane protection was improved to withstand a...
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