Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 15, issue 8
Articles | Volume 15, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1757-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1757-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Articles | Volume 15, issue 8
Brief communication
 | 
11 Aug 2015
Brief communication |  | 11 Aug 2015

Statistical detection and modeling of the over-dispersion of winter storm occurrence

M. Raschke

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Short summary
Here, I discuss and improve the detection and modeling of the over-dispersion of winter storm occurrence using the example of Germany. For this purpose, the generalized Poisson distribution and criteria for the model selection are introduced. Correct statistical model selection ensures the statistical significance of the model, including an over-dispersion. The relation between expectation and variance of a thinned inhomogeneous Poisson process is derived. This is also applied to data.
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