New maps of hurricane-induced surge levels that can occur on average once every 100- and 1000 years are drawn for Guadeloupe Island in the French West Indies, using a high-resolution wave-current coupled model and a large set of synthetic events that are in statistical agreement with historical storms. Results are found to differ significantly from past studies in wave-exposed areas, and should be of major interest for coastal planners and decision makers in terms of risk management.
This paper, the second part in a series of two articles, aims at presenting a data-driven modeling strategy for forecasting
wildfire spread scenarios based on the assimilation of the observed
fire front location and on the sequential correction of model parameters
or model state. The objective here is to sequentially update the fire front location in order to provide a more reliable initial condition for further model integration and forecast.
Here, I discuss and improve the detection and modeling of the over-dispersion of winter storm occurrence using the example of Germany. For this purpose, the generalized Poisson distribution and criteria for the model selection are introduced. Correct statistical model selection ensures the statistical significance of the model, including an over-dispersion. The relation between expectation and variance of a thinned inhomogeneous Poisson process is derived. This is also applied to data.
The research investigates the tsunami hazard in the remote French territory of Wallis and Futuna, Southwest Pacific, using numerical computer modelling of tsunami generation, propagation and inundation. Wallis consists of the inhabited island of Uvéa that is surrounded by a lagoon delimited by a barrier reef, whereas Futuna and the island of Alofi form the Horn Archipelago located ca. 240 km east. Futuna and Alofi are surrounded by a narrow fringing reef and emerge from the North Fiji Transform.
This work aims to test the basic assumption that new landslides will occur under the same conditions which drove the past ones, within the framework of susceptibility assessment. In order to evaluate the domain of validity of the aforementioned assumption, models have been built to predict two landslide scenarios exhibited in different time frames in the catchment of Itala (southern Italy). Chrono-validation procedures are carried out both forwards and backwards in time.
We compiled a data set of 611 fatal landslides in the 2004-2013 period in Latin America and the Caribbean, with 11631 fatalities recorded. Our analysis suggests that on a continental scale the mapped factors that best explain the observed distribution are topography, annual precipitation and population density. Analysis of research on countries affected by fatal landslides shows a landslide research deficit in Latin America and the Caribbean.
This study presents a modified equation of infinite slope stability analysis based on the concept of the saturation depth ratio associated with the rainfall. A rainfall infiltration test was performed using an unsaturated soil column to understand the effect of the saturation depth ratio. The proposed model was applied to assess its feasibility and to develop a regional landslide susceptibility map using a GIS. The approach in this study showed better performance than the steady-state approach.
48 flash flood events in the urban Attica region (2005-2014) resulted in 3,500 fire service operations, mostly in autumn. Events were mostly associated with max accumulated rain over 20mm/24h and 3mm/10min. Impact intensity was particularly high for more than 60mm/24h.
Rain intensity thresholds for flood triggering are produced for 15 sub-areas of the Attica region. The quality of the produced thresholds depends on the distribution and density of the rain gauges that cover each sub-area.
A semiconductor model of rocks is shown to describe unipolar magnetic pulses, a phenomenon that has been observed prior to earthquakes. These pulses are suspected to be generated deep in the Earth's crust, in and around the hypocentral volume, days or weeks before earthquakes. Their extremely long wavelength allows them to pass through kilometers of rock, and the source of the pulses may be triangulated to pinpoint locations where stresses are building deep within the Earth.
Several data sources were searched to collect data on lightning-related fatalities and injuries in Turkey. There were 745 incidents, resulting in 898 deaths, 150 serious injuries and 536 injuries from January 1930 to June 2014. Incidents were most frequent in late spring. The majority of lightning incidents occurred during the afternoon. The number of incidents was relatively higher over the highly populated western parts. The number of male victims was nearly twice the number of female victims.
Different kinds of hydrological extreme events occur, varying from those with slow spreading and large duration and those with very fast spreading, short duration and concentrated impact (flash flood events). This approach bridges the gap between different flood mechanisms occurring at different spatial scales in the Portuguese territory. Results show a good ability to capture different types of floods in a qualitative index at a national scale.
The combination of human exposure, extreme weather events and lack of adaptation strategies to cope with flood-related impacts can potentially increase losses not only on infrastructure but also on human lives. The main objective of this work was to develop a flood social susceptibility index for the continental Portuguese territory. The main results showed that the proposed index correctly identified populations less prepared to avoid flood effects or able to cope with them.
Current methods for drought risk management use water supply reliability as a key decision criterion. Drought robustness analysis, as developed in this paper, additionally provides insight into the full range of drought events and their impact on a system’s functioning. The approach is illustrated through a case study with a water supply reservoir and its users. Results demonstrate that reducing water demand may be a more robust solution than increasing water supply.