Statistical detection and modeling of the over-dispersion of winter storm occurrence

Raschke, M.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1757-2015

Articles | Volume 15, issue 8

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1757-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1757-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 15, issue 8

Brief communication

|

11 Aug 2015

Brief communication |

| 11 Aug 2015

Statistical detection and modeling of the over-dispersion of winter storm occurrence

M. Raschke

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Final revised paper (published on 11 Aug 2015)
Supplement to the final revised paper
Preprint (discussion started on 03 Mar 2015)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC C386: 'Review report', Francesco Serinaldi, 07 Apr 2015
- AC C468: 'Author’s Response to the Referee’s Comments', Mathias Raschke, 22 Apr 2015
  - RC C476: 'Response to Author's reply', Francesco Serinaldi, 22 Apr 2015
    - AC C535: 'Author's response to referee’s comments #2', Mathias Raschke, 27 Apr 2015
RC C575: 'Review for nhessd-3-1775-2015', Joaquim G. Pinto, 04 May 2015
- AC C659: 'Author’s response to Referee’s comments', Mathias Raschke, 11 May 2015

Short summary

Here, I discuss and improve the detection and modeling of the over-dispersion of winter storm occurrence using the example of Germany. For this purpose, the generalized Poisson distribution and criteria for the model selection are introduced. Correct statistical model selection ensures the statistical significance of the model, including an over-dispersion. The relation between expectation and variance of a thinned inhomogeneous Poisson process is derived. This is also applied to data.