Articles | Volume 15, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1135-2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1135-2015
Research article
 | 
05 Jun 2015
Research article |  | 05 Jun 2015

How historical information can improve estimation and prediction of extreme coastal water levels: application to the Xynthia event at La Rochelle (France)

T. Bulteau, D. Idier, J. Lambert, and M. Garcin

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Short summary
Extreme value analyses of sea-level using tide-gauge measurements usually suffer from limited effective duration of observation which can result in large uncertainties, especially when outliers are present. To tackle this issue, a Bayesian MCMC method is developed integrating historical data in extreme sea-level analyses. A real case study shows a significant improvement in return values estimation and the usefulness of the Bayesian framework to predict future annual exceedance probabilities.
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