How historical information can improve estimation and prediction of extreme coastal water levels: application to the Xynthia event at La Rochelle (France)

Bulteau, T.; Idier, D.; Lambert, J.; Garcin, M.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1135-2015

Articles | Volume 15, issue 6

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1135-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1135-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 15, issue 6

Research article

|

05 Jun 2015

Research article |

| 05 Jun 2015

How historical information can improve estimation and prediction of extreme coastal water levels: application to the Xynthia event at La Rochelle (France)

T. Bulteau, D. Idier, J. Lambert, and M. Garcin

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Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 20 Nov 2014)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
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Dec 2014	12	15	1	28
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Feb 2015	10	11	2	23
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Latest update: 07 Nov 2025

Short summary

Extreme value analyses of sea-level using tide-gauge measurements usually suffer from limited effective duration of observation which can result in large uncertainties, especially when outliers are present. To tackle this issue, a Bayesian MCMC method is developed integrating historical data in extreme sea-level analyses. A real case study shows a significant improvement in return values estimation and the usefulness of the Bayesian framework to predict future annual exceedance probabilities.