Articles | Volume 15, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1135-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1135-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Jun 2015
Research article |
| 05 Jun 2015
How historical information can improve estimation and prediction of extreme coastal water levels: application to the Xynthia event at La Rochelle (France)
T. Bulteau
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
BRGM, 3 avenue C. Guillemin, 45060 Orléans Cedex 2, France
BRGM, 3 avenue C. Guillemin, 45060 Orléans Cedex 2, France
J. Lambert
BRGM, 3 avenue C. Guillemin, 45060 Orléans Cedex 2, France
M. Garcin
BRGM, 3 avenue C. Guillemin, 45060 Orléans Cedex 2, France
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Cited
38 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Extreme events: a framework for assessing natural hazards F. Mazas 10.1007/s11069-019-03581-9
- Characterization of Sea-level Variations Along the Metropolitan Coasts of France: Waves, Tides, Storm Surges and Long-term Changes G. Dodet et al. 10.2112/SI88-003.1
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- Determination of extreme sea levels along the Iberian Atlantic coast A. Fortunato et al. 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2015.11.031
- Evaluating uncertainties of future marine flooding occurrence as sea-level rises G. Le Cozannet et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.07.021
- On detailed representation of flood defences and flow-wave coupling in coastal flood modelling T. Duong et al. 10.1038/s44304-024-00016-9
- Estimation of skew surge uncertainties when predicting tides in the past N. Giloy et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100597
- Bayesian extreme value analysis of extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast using historical information L. MacPherson et al. 10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023
- Extreme Sea Level Estimation Combining Systematic Observed Skew Surges and Historical Record Sea Levels L. Saint Criq et al. 10.1029/2021WR030873
- The use of historical information for regional frequency analysis of extreme skew surge R. Frau et al. 10.5194/nhess-18-949-2018
- A systemic and comprehensive assessment of coastal hazard changes: method and application to France and its overseas territories M. Igigabel et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024
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- Social disruption by flooding, a European perspective W. Ten Brinke et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.01.011
- German tanks and historical records: the estimation of the time coverage of ungauged extreme events I. Prosdocimi 10.1007/s00477-017-1418-8
- Coastal flood: a composite method for past events characterisation providing insights in past, present and future hazards—joining historical, statistical and modelling approaches D. Idier et al. 10.1007/s11069-020-03882-4
- The challenges of including historical events using Bayesian methods to improve flood flow estimates in the United Kingdom: A practitioner's point of view D. Lumbroso et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12525
- Extreme skew surge estimation combining systematic skew surges and historical record sea levels on the English Channel and North Sea coasts L. Saint Criq et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12862
- Impacts of repeated coastal flooding on soil and groundwater following managed dike realignment H. Tackley et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164957
- High-resolution marine flood modelling coupling overflow and overtopping processes: framing the hazard based on historical and statistical approaches A. Nicolae Lerma et al. 10.5194/nhess-18-207-2018
- Casting light on forcing and breaching scenarios that lead to marine inundation: Combining numerical simulations with a random-forest classification approach J. Rohmer et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.03.003
- Modeling Nonstationary Extreme Water Levels Considering Local Covariates in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam L. Binh et al. 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001697
- Development of a target-site-based regional frequency model using historical information Y. Hamdi et al. 10.1007/s11069-018-3237-8
- A probabilistic approach to estimating residential losses from different flood types D. Paprotny et al. 10.1007/s11069-020-04413-x
- Managed realignment to mitigate storm-induced flooding: A case study in La Faute-sur-mer, France J. Huguet et al. 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.08.010
- Analysis of the risk associated with coastal flooding hazards: a new historical extreme storm surges dataset for Dunkirk, France Y. Hamdi et al. 10.5194/nhess-18-3383-2018
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- Coastal Flood Modeling to Explore Adaptive Coastal Management Scenarios and Land-Use Changes Under Sea Level Rise J. Louisor et al. 10.3389/fmars.2022.710086
- Development of damage curves for buildings near La Rochelle during storm Xynthia based on insurance claims and hydrodynamic simulations M. Diaz Loaiza et al. 10.5194/nhess-22-345-2022
- Storm-induced marine flooding: Lessons from a multidisciplinary approach E. Chaumillon et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.12.005
- The exceptional influence of storm ‘Xaver’ on design water levels in the German Bight S. Dangendorf et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054001
- The RISC-KIT storm impact database: A new tool in support of DRR P. Ciavola et al. 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.08.016
- Assessing Storm Impact on a French Coastal Dune System Using Morphodynamic Modeling H. Muller et al. 10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-15-00102
- Quantifying historic skew surges: an example for the Dunkirk Area, France N. Giloy et al. 10.1007/s11069-018-3527-1
- Neglecting model structural uncertainty underestimates upper tails of flood hazard T. Wong et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aacb3d
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- Modélisation déterministe et probabiliste des dommages assurantiels causés par les phénomènes de submersion marine en France métropolitaine J. Naulin et al. 10.1051/lhb/2019022
36 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Extreme events: a framework for assessing natural hazards F. Mazas 10.1007/s11069-019-03581-9
- Characterization of Sea-level Variations Along the Metropolitan Coasts of France: Waves, Tides, Storm Surges and Long-term Changes G. Dodet et al. 10.2112/SI88-003.1
- Integrating historical storm surge events into flood risk security in the Copenhagen region J. Su et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100713
- Determination of extreme sea levels along the Iberian Atlantic coast A. Fortunato et al. 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2015.11.031
- Evaluating uncertainties of future marine flooding occurrence as sea-level rises G. Le Cozannet et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.07.021
- On detailed representation of flood defences and flow-wave coupling in coastal flood modelling T. Duong et al. 10.1038/s44304-024-00016-9
- Estimation of skew surge uncertainties when predicting tides in the past N. Giloy et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100597
- Bayesian extreme value analysis of extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast using historical information L. MacPherson et al. 10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023
- Extreme Sea Level Estimation Combining Systematic Observed Skew Surges and Historical Record Sea Levels L. Saint Criq et al. 10.1029/2021WR030873
- The use of historical information for regional frequency analysis of extreme skew surge R. Frau et al. 10.5194/nhess-18-949-2018
- A systemic and comprehensive assessment of coastal hazard changes: method and application to France and its overseas territories M. Igigabel et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024
- Combining uncertain machine learning predictions and numerical simulation results for the extreme value analysis of cyclone-induced wave heights – Application in Guadeloupe J. Rohmer et al. 10.1016/j.ocemod.2023.102275
- Social disruption by flooding, a European perspective W. Ten Brinke et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.01.011
- German tanks and historical records: the estimation of the time coverage of ungauged extreme events I. Prosdocimi 10.1007/s00477-017-1418-8
- Coastal flood: a composite method for past events characterisation providing insights in past, present and future hazards—joining historical, statistical and modelling approaches D. Idier et al. 10.1007/s11069-020-03882-4
- The challenges of including historical events using Bayesian methods to improve flood flow estimates in the United Kingdom: A practitioner's point of view D. Lumbroso et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12525
- Extreme skew surge estimation combining systematic skew surges and historical record sea levels on the English Channel and North Sea coasts L. Saint Criq et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12862
- Impacts of repeated coastal flooding on soil and groundwater following managed dike realignment H. Tackley et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164957
- High-resolution marine flood modelling coupling overflow and overtopping processes: framing the hazard based on historical and statistical approaches A. Nicolae Lerma et al. 10.5194/nhess-18-207-2018
- Casting light on forcing and breaching scenarios that lead to marine inundation: Combining numerical simulations with a random-forest classification approach J. Rohmer et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.03.003
- Modeling Nonstationary Extreme Water Levels Considering Local Covariates in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam L. Binh et al. 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001697
- Development of a target-site-based regional frequency model using historical information Y. Hamdi et al. 10.1007/s11069-018-3237-8
- A probabilistic approach to estimating residential losses from different flood types D. Paprotny et al. 10.1007/s11069-020-04413-x
- Managed realignment to mitigate storm-induced flooding: A case study in La Faute-sur-mer, France J. Huguet et al. 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.08.010
- Analysis of the risk associated with coastal flooding hazards: a new historical extreme storm surges dataset for Dunkirk, France Y. Hamdi et al. 10.5194/nhess-18-3383-2018
- Multi-century geological data thins the tail of observationally based extreme sea level return period curves K. Joyse et al. 10.1038/s44304-024-00040-9
- Coastal Flood Modeling to Explore Adaptive Coastal Management Scenarios and Land-Use Changes Under Sea Level Rise J. Louisor et al. 10.3389/fmars.2022.710086
- Development of damage curves for buildings near La Rochelle during storm Xynthia based on insurance claims and hydrodynamic simulations M. Diaz Loaiza et al. 10.5194/nhess-22-345-2022
- Storm-induced marine flooding: Lessons from a multidisciplinary approach E. Chaumillon et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.12.005
- The exceptional influence of storm ‘Xaver’ on design water levels in the German Bight S. Dangendorf et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054001
- The RISC-KIT storm impact database: A new tool in support of DRR P. Ciavola et al. 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.08.016
- Assessing Storm Impact on a French Coastal Dune System Using Morphodynamic Modeling H. Muller et al. 10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-15-00102
- Quantifying historic skew surges: an example for the Dunkirk Area, France N. Giloy et al. 10.1007/s11069-018-3527-1
- Neglecting model structural uncertainty underestimates upper tails of flood hazard T. Wong et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aacb3d
- An integration and assessment of multiple covariates of nonstationary storm surge statistical behavior by Bayesian model averaging T. Wong 10.5194/ascmo-4-53-2018
- Uncertainties in Sandy Shorelines Evolution under the Bruun Rule Assumption G. Le Cozannet et al. 10.3389/fmars.2016.00049
2 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Use of historical information in extreme-surge frequency estimation: the case of marine flooding on the La Rochelle site in France Y. Hamdi et al. 10.5194/nhess-15-1515-2015
- Modélisation déterministe et probabiliste des dommages assurantiels causés par les phénomènes de submersion marine en France métropolitaine J. Naulin et al. 10.1051/lhb/2019022
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Latest update: 15 Jan 2025
Short summary
Extreme value analyses of sea-level using tide-gauge measurements usually suffer from limited effective duration of observation which can result in large uncertainties, especially when outliers are present. To tackle this issue, a Bayesian MCMC method is developed integrating historical data in extreme sea-level analyses. A real case study shows a significant improvement in return values estimation and the usefulness of the Bayesian framework to predict future annual exceedance probabilities.
Extreme value analyses of sea-level using tide-gauge measurements usually suffer from limited...
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