Articles | Volume 26, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-611-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-611-2026
Research article
 | 
29 Jan 2026
Research article |  | 29 Jan 2026

From typhoon rainfall to slope failure: optimizing susceptibility models and dynamic thresholds for landslide warnings in Zixing City, China

Weifeng Xiao, Guangchong Yao, Zhenghui Xiao, Ge Liu, Luguang Luo, Yunjiang Cao, and Wei Yin

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ROC-optimized rainfall thresholds for typhoon-induced landslides: environmental and magnitude stratification in Zixing City, China
Weifeng Xiao, Ge Liu, Weimin Huang, Zhenghui Xiao, and Luguuang Luo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1608,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1608, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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Cited articles

Achu, A. L., Aju, C. D., Pham, Q. B., Reghunath, R., and Anh, D. T.: Landslide susceptibility modeling using hybrid bivariate statistical-based machine-learning method in a highland segment of Southern Western Ghats, India, Environ. Earth Sci., 81, 361, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-022-10464-z, 2022. 
Banfi, F. and De Michele, C.: Temporal clustering of precipitation driving landslides over the Italian Territory, Earths Future, 12, e2023EF003885, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003885, 2024. 
Bogaard, T. and Greco, R.: Invited perspectives: Hydrological perspectives on precipitation intensity-duration thresholds for landslide initiation: proposing hydro-meteorological thresholds, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 31–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-31-2018, 2018. 
Calvello, M. and Piciullo, L.: Assessing the performance of regional landslide early warning models: the EDuMaP method, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 103–122, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-103-2016, 2016. 
Chang, Z. L., Huang, J. S., Huang, F. M., Bhuyan, K., Meena, S. R., and Catani, F.: Uncertainty analysis of non-landslide sample selection in landslide susceptibility prediction using slope unit-based machine learning models, Gondwana Res., 117, 307–320, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gr.2023.02.007, 2023. 
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Short summary
In China’s Zixing City, typhoon landslides are rising with climate change. This study used machine learning on Typhoon Gaemi (2024) data, identifying 86.4 % of high-risk landslides. A rainfall model (24 h+7-day) achieved 71.8 % accuracy, guiding a warning system matching 71.4 % of historical events.
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