Articles | Volume 26, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5609-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5609-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Composition, frequency, and severity of future rain-on-snow floods in Germany
Christian Czakay
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Larisa Tarasova
Department Catchment Hydrology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Halle (Saale), Germany
Bodo Ahrens
Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
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Francesco De Rovere, Giulia Bonino, Ronan McAdam, Enrico Scoccimarro, Samuel Somot, Iván M. Parras-Berrocal, Bodo Ahrens, Vladimir Djurdjevic, Laurent Li, and Simona Masina
Ocean Sci., 22, 2725–2742, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-2725-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-2725-2026, 2026
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Marine heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea are intensifying, posing growing threats to marine life and coastal communities. We evaluated if high-resolution regional climate models better capture these extremes compared to the global models driving them. Regional models reliably improve sea surface temperature patterns and marine heatwave duration, but struggle more with heatwave intensity. Higher horizontal resolution alone is not enough, advances in other model components are equally needed.
Mittal Parmar, Kristina Fröhlich, Antonella Sanna, Tobias Stacke, Marianna Benassi, Zhicheng Luo, Daniele Peano, and Bodo Ahrens
The Cryosphere, 20, 4157–4184, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4157-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4157-2026, 2026
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Seasonally frozen ground strongly influences land–atmosphere interactions, yet its simulation remains uncertain in land surface models. This study evaluates 2 standalone LSM simulations forced by reanalysis data (1986-2022) and validates results against reference observations at 26 Russian sites. Results show contrasting biases linked to snow insulation and freeze–thaw processes, highlighting the need for improved snow and soil parameterizations.
Paul Voit, Marie Hundhausen, Larisa Seregina, Hendrik Feldmann, Bodo Ahrens, and Maik Heistermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1229, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1229, 2026
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Extreme rainfall is expected to increase with a warming climate. However, it remains unclear how this will impact future floods. This study utilizes an ensemble of 6 new datasets, containing the future projected rainfall, and compares the simulated flash floods of the past (1971–2000) and future (2071–2100) under the RCP8.5 scenario for the German part of the Danube catchment. Our results indicate an increase of 100-yr flood return levels of 30 % across all subcatchments under this scenario.
Fanni Dóra Kelemen, Richard Lohmann, Jiang Zhu, and Bodo Ahrens
Clim. Past, 22, 505–516, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-505-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-505-2026, 2026
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The arrangement of continents and oceans strongly affects climate by shaping large-scale circulation patterns. We study, how early Eocene geography (53.5 Ma) influenced mid-latitude storms and persistent high-pressure systems, focusing on the West Siberian Sea and absent Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The climate model simulation of the early Eocene, shows a more balanced hemispheric distribution, through increased northern and decreased southern mid-latitude storm activity compared to today.
Prashant Singh and Bodo Ahrens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 17869–17888, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17869-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17869-2025, 2025
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Intense deep convective clouds (e.g. lightning events) can rapidly move water vapour and other gases into the upper troposphere. The Third Pole region, especially the Himalayas, frequently experiences such storms. ICON (Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic )-CLM (climate limited-area mode) (3.3 km) and ERA5 reanalysis data (30 km), these convective events can lift water vapour into the upper troposphere but rarely into the lower stratosphere in the Third Pole. After reaching the upper troposphere, the water vapour tends to move horizontally away from the region.
Zhicheng Luo, Danny Risto, and Bodo Ahrens
The Cryosphere, 19, 6547–6576, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6547-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6547-2025, 2025
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Climate models face challenges in accurately simulating cold regions' soil temperatures and snow conditions. By comparing different models, we found that the land surface models have a strong impact on simulation errors. Additionally, they struggle to account for snow’s insulating effect on the ground properly. Our findings highlight the need for improving frozen soil simulation, which is crucial for understanding the climate impacts of frozen soil.
Richard Lohmann, Christopher Purr, and Bodo Ahrens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3670, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3670, 2025
Preprint archived
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This study investigates the relationship between atmospheric blocking and the extreme events heatwaves, heavy rainfall and calm events in Germany in atmospheric reanalyses and CMIP6 climate simulations. In the reanalyses, the statistical relationship is more pronounced between blocking and calms than between blocking and heavy precipitation. In the simulated future climate, the frequency of the three extreme event types increases with nearly unchanged relationship of blocking with the extremes.
Ralf Loritz, Alexander Dolich, Eduardo Acuña Espinoza, Pia Ebeling, Björn Guse, Jonas Götte, Sibylle K. Hassler, Corina Hauffe, Ingo Heidbüchel, Jens Kiesel, Mirko Mälicke, Hannes Müller-Thomy, Michael Stölzle, and Larisa Tarasova
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 5625–5642, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5625-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5625-2024, 2024
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The CAMELS-DE dataset features data from 1582 streamflow gauges across Germany, with records spanning from 1951 to 2020. This comprehensive dataset, which includes time series of up to 70 years (median 46 years), enables advanced research on water flow and environmental trends and supports the development of hydrological models.
Matteo Pesce, Alberto Viglione, Jost von Hardenberg, Larisa Tarasova, Stefano Basso, Ralf Merz, Juraj Parajka, and Rui Tong
Proc. IAHS, 385, 65–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-65-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-65-2024, 2024
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The manuscript describes an application of PArameter Set Shuffling (PASS) approach in the Alpine region. A machine learning decision-tree algorithm is applied for the regional calibration of a conceptual semi-distributed hydrological model. Regional model efficiencies don't decrease significantly when moving in space from catchments used for the regional calibration (training) to catchments used for the procedure validation (test) and, in time, from the calibration to the verification period.
Felipe A. Saavedra, Andreas Musolff, Jana von Freyberg, Ralf Merz, Stefano Basso, and Larisa Tarasova
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6227–6245, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6227-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6227-2022, 2022
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Nitrate contamination of rivers from agricultural sources is a challenge for water quality management. During runoff events, different transport paths within the catchment might be activated, generating a variety of responses in nitrate concentration in stream water. Using nitrate samples from 184 German catchments and a runoff event classification, we show that hydrologic connectivity during runoff events is a key control of nitrate transport from catchments to streams in our study domain.
Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Amelie Hoff, Anika Obermann-Hellhund, Timo Keber, and Bodo Ahrens
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-24, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-24, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
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The Vb-cyclones simulated with a coupled regional climate model with two different driving data sets are compared against each other in historical period, thereafter the future climate predictions were analyzed. The Vb-cyclones in two simulations agree well in terms of their occurrence, intensity and track in two simulations, though there are discrepancies in seasonal cycles and their process linking Mediterranean Sea in historical period. So significant changes were observed in the future.
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Short summary
In this study, we simulated streamflow in German river catchments for climate projections using a deep learning model. Flood-generating processes were identified using explainable artificial intelligence. In the median, the models project mostly less rain-on-snow floods in Germany in the future and an overall lower importance of snowmelt. The average and strongest rain-on-snow floods will have a higher magnitude. The trends found for the individual climate models can vary considerably.
In this study, we simulated streamflow in German river catchments for climate projections using...
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