Articles | Volume 26, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5573-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5573-2026
Research article
 | 
03 Nov 2026
Research article |  | 03 Nov 2026

Persistence of scour at bridges using stochastic simulations

Alonso Pizarro, Oscar Link, and Demetris Koutsoyiannis

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Cited articles

Arneson, L., Zevenbergen, L., Lagasse, P., and Clopper, P.: Evaluating scour at bridges, 5th ed. FHWA-HIF-12–003, Hydraulic engineering circular No. 18., Washington, DC, USA, https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/engineering/hydraulics/pubs/hif12003.pdf (last access: 2 November 2026), 2012. 
Brandimarte, L., Montanari, A., Briaud, J.-L., and D'Odorico, P.: Stochastic Flow Analysis for Predicting River Scour of Cohesive Soils, J. Hydraul. Eng., 132, 493–500, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(2006)132:5(493), 2006. 
Breusers, H. N. C., Nicollet, G., and Shen, H. W.: Local Scour Around Cylindrical Piers, J. Hydraul. Res., 15, 211–252, https://doi.org/10.1080/00221687709499645, 1977. 
Briaud, J.-L., Brandimarte, L., Wang, J., and D'Odorico, P.: Probability of scour depth exceedance owing to hydrologic uncertainty, Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards, 1, 77–88, https://doi.org/10.1080/17499510701398844, 2007. 
Chilean Ministry of Public Works (MOP): Highways design manual, Santiago, Chile, https://mc.mop.gob.cl (last access: 2 November 2026), 2020 (in Spanish). 
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Short summary
We explored why bridge foundations erode over time and why floods alone do not explain this risk. Using many simulated river flows linked to a model that includes erosion and sediment refilling, we found that scour is highly variable, persistent, and only weakly linked to flood extremes. Sediment coming from upstream strongly alters erosion patterns. These results show that common design methods can misjudge risk, highlighting the need to account for uncertainty in safer bridge design.
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