Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 11
Articles | Volume 26, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5573-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5573-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 11
Research article
 | 
03 Nov 2026
Research article |  | 03 Nov 2026

Persistence of scour at bridges using stochastic simulations

Alonso Pizarro, Oscar Link, and Demetris Koutsoyiannis

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Short summary
We explored why bridge foundations erode over time and why floods alone do not explain this risk. Using many simulated river flows linked to a model that includes erosion and sediment refilling, we found that scour is highly variable, persistent, and only weakly linked to flood extremes. Sediment coming from upstream strongly alters erosion patterns. These results show that common design methods can misjudge risk, highlighting the need to account for uncertainty in safer bridge design.
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