Residual error modelling for process-based flood frequency analysis

Romero-Cuellar, Jonathan; Craig, James R.; Tolson, Bryan A.; Arabzadeh, Rezgar

doi:10.5194/nhess-26-5389-2026

Articles | Volume 26, issue 11

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5389-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5389-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 26, issue 11

Research article

|

30 Oct 2026

Research article |

| 30 Oct 2026

Residual error modelling for process-based flood frequency analysis

Jonathan Romero-Cuellar, James R. Craig, Bryan A. Tolson, and Rezgar Arabzadeh

Related authors

Multimodel implementation of the Raven HBV-EC model for streamflow simulation and uncertainty quantification

Aida Jabbari, Biljana Music, David Huard, James Craig, Richard Turcotte, Mohammad Bizhanimanzar, Simon Lachance-Cloutier, Charles Malenfant, and François Anctil

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4806,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4806, 2026

This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).

Short summary

Network-Based Subbasin-Scale Mapping of Streamflow Alteration in Ontario, Canada

Hongren Shen, Bryan A. Tolson, James R. Craig, Robert A. Metcalfe, Jonathan Romero-Cuellar, and Jamie Luce

Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-286,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-286, 2026

Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD

Short summary

A reach-integrated hydraulic modelling approach for large-scale and real-time inundation mapping

Robert Chlumsky, James R. Craig, and Bryan A. Tolson

Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3387–3403, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3387-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3387-2025, 2025

Short summary

Data-driven modelling of hydraulic-head time series: results and lessons learned from the 2022 Groundwater Time Series Modelling Challenge

Raoul A. Collenteur, Ezra Haaf, Mark Bakker, Tanja Liesch, Andreas Wunsch, Jenny Soonthornrangsan, Jeremy White, Nick Martin, Rui Hugman, Ed de Sousa, Didier Vanden Berghe, Xinyang Fan, Tim J. Peterson, Jānis Bikše, Antoine Di Ciacca, Xinyue Wang, Yang Zheng, Maximilian Nölscher, Julian Koch, Raphael Schneider, Nikolas Benavides Höglund, Sivarama Krishna Reddy Chidepudi, Abel Henriot, Nicolas Massei, Abderrahim Jardani, Max Gustav Rudolph, Amir Rouhani, J. Jaime Gómez-Hernández, Seifeddine Jomaa, Anna Pölz, Tim Franken, Morteza Behbooei, Jimmy Lin, and Rojin Meysami

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5193–5208, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5193-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5193-2024, 2024

Short summary

Enhancing long short-term memory (LSTM)-based streamflow prediction with a spatially distributed approach

Qiutong Yu, Bryan A. Tolson, Hongren Shen, Ming Han, Juliane Mai, and Jimmy Lin

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2107–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2107-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2107-2024, 2024

Short summary

The Great Lakes Runoff Intercomparison Project Phase 4: the Great Lakes (GRIP-GL)

Juliane Mai, Hongren Shen, Bryan A. Tolson, Étienne Gaborit, Richard Arsenault, James R. Craig, Vincent Fortin, Lauren M. Fry, Martin Gauch, Daniel Klotz, Frederik Kratzert, Nicole O'Brien, Daniel G. Princz, Sinan Rasiya Koya, Tirthankar Roy, Frank Seglenieks, Narayan K. Shrestha, André G. T. Temgoua, Vincent Vionnet, and Jonathan W. Waddell

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3537–3572, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3537-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3537-2022, 2022

Short summary

Cited articles

Andersen, C. B., Wright, D. B., and Thorndahl, S.: CON-SST-RAIN: Continuous Stochastic Space–Time Rainfall generation based on Markov chains and transposition of weather radar data, J. Hydrol. (Amst.), 637, 131385, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2024.131385, 2024.

Apel, H., Thieken, A. H., Merz, B., and Blöschl, G.: Flood risk assessment and associated uncertainty, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 295–308, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-4-295-2004, 2004.

Arnaud, P. and Lavabre, J.: Coupled rainfall model and discharge model for flood frequency estimation, Water Resour. Res., 38, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001WR000474, 2002.

Arnaud, P., Cantet, P., and Odry, J.: Uncertainties of flood frequency estimation approaches based on continuous simulation using data resampling, J. Hydrol. (Amst.), 554, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.09.011, 2017.

Baâ, K. M., Díaz-Delgado, C., and Caârsteanu, A.: Confidence intervals of quantiles in hydrology computed by an analytical method, Nat. Hazards, 24, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1011101700032, 2001.