Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 11
Articles | Volume 26, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5389-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5389-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 11
Research article
 | 
30 Oct 2026
Research article |  | 30 Oct 2026

Residual error modelling for process-based flood frequency analysis

Jonathan Romero-Cuellar, James R. Craig, Bryan A. Tolson, and Rezgar Arabzadeh

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Short summary
Reliable flood estimates are difficult when river records are short. We developed a method that combines recorded weather and river flow with computer simulations of many possible years, while correcting errors in predicted flood peaks. Tests in three Canadian watersheds showed that estimates based on 30 years of data agreed with benchmarks from much longer records. The method could support clearer, more informed decisions about flood protection and infrastructure where data are limited.
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