Articles | Volume 26, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5389-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Residual error modelling for process-based flood frequency analysis
Download
- Final revised paper (published on 30 Oct 2026)
- Supplement to the final revised paper
- Preprint (discussion started on 15 Dec 2025)
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
| : Report abuse
-
RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-5784', Ricardo Mantilla, 19 Feb 2026
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Jonathan Romero-Cuellar, 16 Apr 2026
-
RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-5784', Anonymous Referee #2, 17 Mar 2026
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Jonathan Romero-Cuellar, 16 Apr 2026
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (21 May 2026) by Philip Ward
AR by Jonathan Romero-Cuellar on behalf of the Authors (30 Jun 2026)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (01 Jul 2026) by Philip Ward
AR by Jonathan Romero-Cuellar on behalf of the Authors (01 Jul 2026)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (03 Jul 2026) by Philip Ward
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (08 Sep 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #4 (22 Sep 2026)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (23 Sep 2026) by Philip Ward
AR by Jonathan Romero-Cuellar on behalf of the Authors (15 Oct 2026)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (16 Oct 2026) by Philip Ward
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (18 Oct 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #4 (20 Oct 2026)
ED: Publish as is (20 Oct 2026) by Philip Ward
AR by Jonathan Romero-Cuellar on behalf of the Authors (20 Oct 2026)
The authors present a novel framework for Uncertainty Quantification of flood-frequency for Annual Maxima estimates that combines model-generated data with a Residual Error Model (REM). Their formalism provides a realistic and easily implementable method for at-a-station Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA). This work is a significant improvement over previous techniques that rely on either statistical assumptions about the properties of the Annual Maxima random variable or purely model-based generation of deterministic values. The careful treatment of model error allows for a smooth combination of these two approaches, provinding norrow and physically-constrained estimates of uncertainty bounds.
Specific Comments:
1. Clarify if the underlying HBV model was calibrated using only 30-years of the data in the experiments that were comparing 30 vs. 108 years estimates.
2. Clarify if the AR model for residual error was deemed sufficient to characterize autocorrelations or if this was a subjective decision
3. Include the lack of "parameter uncertainty" estimation in Section 5.3. It looks to me that a different set of parameters with similar performance had been chosen; the final uncertainty band could have changed. Therefore, a bootstrapping of multiple similarly performing model parameterizations can lead to a widening of the uncertainty band.
4. Further addressing the issue of uncertainty in streamflow estimates due to errors in the rating curves. I suggest citing and comparing the uncertainty bands reported here with those found by Velásquez, N., Krajewski, W.F. Effect of streamflow measurement error on flood frequency estimation. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 38, 2903–2910 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-024-02707-1
5. I suggest the authors comment on any findings in their analysis that suggest whether annual maxima produced by different flood mechanisms (e.g., snowmelt vs rainfall generated) can be detected, and if a conditional REM model may be needed to address those differences.
Line 123: superscript for square kilometers
Line 389: replace "providing" with "provides"