Articles | Volume 26, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5389-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5389-2026
Research article
 | 
30 Oct 2026
Research article |  | 30 Oct 2026

Residual error modelling for process-based flood frequency analysis

Jonathan Romero-Cuellar, James R. Craig, Bryan A. Tolson, and Rezgar Arabzadeh

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-5784', Ricardo Mantilla, 19 Feb 2026
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Jonathan Romero-Cuellar, 16 Apr 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-5784', Anonymous Referee #2, 17 Mar 2026
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Jonathan Romero-Cuellar, 16 Apr 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (21 May 2026) by Philip Ward
AR by Jonathan Romero-Cuellar on behalf of the Authors (30 Jun 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (01 Jul 2026) by Philip Ward
AR by Jonathan Romero-Cuellar on behalf of the Authors (01 Jul 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (03 Jul 2026) by Philip Ward
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (08 Sep 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #4 (22 Sep 2026)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (23 Sep 2026) by Philip Ward
AR by Jonathan Romero-Cuellar on behalf of the Authors (15 Oct 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (16 Oct 2026) by Philip Ward
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (18 Oct 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #4 (20 Oct 2026)
ED: Publish as is (20 Oct 2026) by Philip Ward
AR by Jonathan Romero-Cuellar on behalf of the Authors (20 Oct 2026)
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Short summary
Reliable flood estimates are difficult when river records are short. We developed a method that combines recorded weather and river flow with computer simulations of many possible years, while correcting errors in predicted flood peaks. Tests in three Canadian watersheds showed that estimates based on 30 years of data agreed with benchmarks from much longer records. The method could support clearer, more informed decisions about flood protection and infrastructure where data are limited.
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