Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 10
Articles | Volume 26, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4861-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4861-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 10
Invited perspectives
 | Highlight paper
 | 
07 Oct 2026
Invited perspectives | Highlight paper |  | 07 Oct 2026

Invited perspective: Uncertainties in natural systems may be uncomfortable, but ignoring them would be absurd

Warner Marzocchi, Alberto Montanari, and the RETURN-uncertainty task force

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Editorial statement
The paper advances hazard and risk science by developing a cross-hazard framework for systematically identifying, separating, quantifying, and communicating multiple sources of uncertainty, centred on the novel concept of a “complete forecast.” The paper can be a highlight paper because it bridges traditionally fragmented disciplinary approaches to uncertainty and offers a broadly applicable foundation for more transparent model evaluation, risk communication, and uncertainty-informed decision-making.
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Short summary
Natural systems are complex and uncertain, making probabilistic forecasts essential. Representing and communicating all uncertainties is challenging but vital for risk management. A multidisciplinary review identified common challenges across hazards and proposes a shared framework based on a clear hierarchy of uncertainties, complete forecasts, rigorous model evaluation, and effective communication to support decision-making.
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