Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 10
Articles | Volume 26, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4723-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4723-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 10
Research article
 | 
02 Oct 2026
Research article |  | 02 Oct 2026

Seasonal influence on post-fire debris flow likelihood after the 2020 Lake Fire

Jeng-Hann Chong, Adit Ghosh, Brandon T. Page, Greg Jesmok, Denise V. Berg, Marlene Lopez, Deepshikha Upadhyay, David J. Stone, Scott C. Hauswirth, Eric O. Lindsey, and Louis A. Scuderi

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Short summary
Post-fire debris flows or mudflows, can occur during intense rainfall following wildfires. Yet, it remains unclear how seasonal variation affects debris-flow initiation years after the fire. Using simulations of the 2020 Lake Fire in California, we show that debris-flow likelihood varies drastically between drier and wetter months, even four years after the fire. This study highlights the need to consider climatic and seasonal patterns in post-fire debris-flow assessment.
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