Articles | Volume 26, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4611-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4611-2026
Research article
 | 
28 Sep 2026
Research article |  | 28 Sep 2026

Reliability analysis method for soil slopes permanent displacement under mainshock–aftershock sequences

Tianyi Wang, Chengda Zhang, Jiangwei Zhang, Su Chen, and Zhijun Dai

Cited articles

Amiri, S., Di Sarno, L., and Garakaninezhad, A.: Correlation between non-spectral and cumulative-based ground motion intensity measures and demands of structures under mainshock-aftershock seismic sequences considering the effects of incident angles, Structures, 46, 1209–1223, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.istruc.2022.10.076, 2022. 
Bray, J. D. and Macedo, J.: Procedure for estimating shear-induced seismic slope displacement for shallow crustal earthquakes, J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng., 145, 04019106, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0002143, 2019. 
Hu, C. B., Wang, Y. G., and Ling, D. S.: Physical essence and influence of model parameters on dynamic response of Rayleigh damping, J. Zhejiang Univ. (Eng. Sci.), 51, 1284–1290, https://doi.org/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2017.07.003, 2017. 
Hu, S., Gardoni, P., and Xu, L.: Stochastic procedure for the simulation of synthetic mainshock-aftershock ground motion, Earthq. Eng. Struct. Dyn., 47, 2275–2296, https://doi.org/10.1002/eqe.3068, 2018. 
Jiang, Y., Ruan, X., and Liu, Z.: Dimension-reduction simulation of main-aftershock type ground motion process, J. Vib. Shock, 40, 282–292, 2021. 
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Short summary
Earthquakes are often followed by aftershocks, which are frequently the decisive trigger for landslides. While current research mainly focuses on mainshock-induced landslides but overlooks aftershocks. This study develops a reliability analysis method for seismic sequences using the Probability Density Evolution Method. The method effectively captures the role of aftershocks and enables more accurate assessment of slope performance, offering significant value for earthquake disaster prevention.
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