Articles | Volume 26, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4549-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4549-2026
Research article
 | 
23 Sep 2026
Research article |  | 23 Sep 2026

A fluvial flood risk model for quantifying the benefit of mitigation measures under uncertainty

Mara Ruf, Amelie Hoffmann, and Daniel Straub

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Cited articles

Apel, H., Thieken, A. H., Merz, B., and Blöschl, G.: Flood risk assessment and associated uncertainty, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 295–308, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-4-295-2004, 2004. a, b, c, d, e, f
Apel, H., Thieken, A. H., Merz, B., and Blöschl, G.: A Probabilistic Modelling System for Assessing Flood Risks, Nat. Hazards, 38, 79–100, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-005-8603-7, 2006. a, b, c
Apel, H., Merz, B., and Thieken, A. H.: Quantification of uncertainties in flood risk assessments, Intl. J. River Basin Management, 6, 149–162, https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2008.9635344, 2008. a, b
Apel, H., Aronica, G. T., Kreibich, H., and Thieken, A. H.: Flood risk analyses – how detailed do we need to be?, Nat. Hazards, 49, 79–98, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9277-8, 2009a. a, b, c
Apel, H., Merz, B., and Thieken, A.: Influence of dike breaches on flood frequency estimation, Comput. Geosci., 35, 907–923, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2007.11.003, 2009b. a, b, c, d
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We developed a flood risk model that estimates the benefit of mitigation measures under uncertainty. The model is computationally efficient and is embedded in a framework that separates the influence of natural from model-related uncertainties. It allows the comparison of (combined) measures and thus provides a robust basis for decision-making. We applied the flood risk model to the Bavarian Danube, Germany, to assess the effectiveness of a flood detention basin.
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