Articles | Volume 26, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4231-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4231-2026
Research article
 | 
03 Sep 2026
Research article |  | 03 Sep 2026

Developing a coastal hazard prediction system in ice-infested waters – Part 1: High-resolution regional wave modeling in the Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence

Jérémy Baudry, Dany Dumont, David Didier, Pascal Bernatchez, and Sébastien Dugas

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Cited articles

Ardhuin, F. and Roland, A.: Coastal wave reflection, directional spread, and seismoacoustic noise sources, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 117, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007832, 2012. a
Aretxabaleta, A. L., Doran, K. S., Long, J. W., Erikson, L. H., and Storlazzi, C. D.: Toward a national coastal hazard forecast of total water levels, in: Coastal Sediments 2019: Proceedings of the 9th International Conference, World Scientific, 1373–1384, https://doi.org/10.1142/9789811204487_0120, 2019. a
Avila, L., Stewart, S., Berg, R., and Hagen, A.: Tropical cyclone report: Hurricane Dorian, National Hurricane Center Report, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL052019_Dorian.pdf (last access: 1 September 2026), 2020. a, b
Avissar, R.: Conceptual aspects of a statistical-dynamical approach to represent landscape subgrid-scale heterogeneities in atmospheric models, J. Geophys. Res., 97, 2729–2742, 1992. a
Bandet, M., Caulet, C., Baudry, J., Didier, D., Dubuc, D., Marion, N., McKinnon, R., Paul-Hus, C., Caveen, J., Sévigny, C., Senneville, S., Dumont, D., and Bernatchez, P.: Programme de mesure et de modélisation de la morphodynamique de l’érosion et de la submersion côtière dans l’estuaire et le golfe du Saint-Laurent (MoDESCo), Phase III: rapport final. Chaire de recherche en géoscience côtière, Laboratoire de dynamique et de gestion intégrée des zones côtières, Université du Québec à Rimouski. Rapport remis au ministère de la sécurité publique du Québec, novembre 2020, 259 p., 2020. a
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This two-part study explores the development of a short-term (up to 48 hours) coastal flood forecasting system along the Quebec coastline. The first part of the study focuses on wave prediction, a main contributor to coastal hazards. The key results of the study show that wave conditions can be accurately predicted during summer, however, the performances of the model in winter are considerably reduced, primarily because predicting sea ice conditions at fine spatial scales remains challenging.
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