Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 9
Articles | Volume 26, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4231-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4231-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 9
Research article
 | 
03 Sep 2026
Research article |  | 03 Sep 2026

Developing a coastal hazard prediction system in ice-infested waters – Part 1: High-resolution regional wave modeling in the Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence

Jérémy Baudry, Dany Dumont, David Didier, Pascal Bernatchez, and Sébastien Dugas

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Short summary
This two-part study explores the development of a short-term (up to 48 hours) coastal flood forecasting system along the Quebec coastline. The first part of the study focuses on wave prediction, a main contributor to coastal hazards. The key results of the study show that wave conditions can be accurately predicted during summer, however, the performances of the model in winter are considerably reduced, primarily because predicting sea ice conditions at fine spatial scales remains challenging.
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