Articles | Volume 26, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3839-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3839-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Aug 2026
Research article |
| 17 Aug 2026
| 17 Aug 2026
Regional modeling of the impacts of tidal flooding in the context of average sea level rise in low-lying areas of Brazil's semi-arid coast
Thiago Cavalcante Lins Silva
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geography, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, 59078-970, Brazil
Marco Túlio Mendonça Diniz
Department of Geography, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, 59078-970, Brazil
Department of Geography, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Caicó, 59300-000, Brazil
Paulo Victor do Nascimento Araújo
Campus Macau, Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Rio Grande do Norte, Macau, 59500-000, Brazil
José Yure Gomes dos Santos
Department of Geography, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Caicó, 59300-000, Brazil
Bruno Ferreira
Institute of Geography, Development and Environment, Federal University of Alagoas, Maceió, 57072-900, Brazil
Jucielho Pedro da Silva
Department of Geography, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Caicó, 59300-000, Brazil
Department of Geosciences, Federal University of Paraíba, João Pessoa, 58051-900, Brazil
Related authors
No articles found.
Paulo Victor N. Araújo, Venerando E. Amaro, Leonlene S. Aguiar, Caio C. Lima, and Alexandre B. Lopes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3353–3366, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3353-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3353-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The approach of this work is a tidal flood risk mapping methodology for climate change scenarios in a semi-arid region with a strong environmental and social appeal. The study area has been suffering severe consequences from flooding by tides in recent years. High-geodetic-precision data, together with tidal return period statistics and data from current sea level rise scenarios, were used. This case study can serve as a basis for future management actions and as a model to be copied.
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Short summary
This study analyzes the risks of sea-level rise along Brazil’s semi-arid coast, a vulnerable, low-lying region. We used open-access data to assess future flood risks and estimate potential damage to homes, cities, and salt production areas. The results show that up to 14 % of the region could be flooded under extreme conditions, causing significant impacts on local communities and their livelihoods. These findings can support planning and adaptation efforts in vulnerable coastal regions.
This study analyzes the risks of sea-level rise along Brazil’s semi-arid coast, a vulnerable,...
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