Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 8
Articles | Volume 26, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3761-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3761-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 8
Research article
 | 
13 Aug 2026
Research article |  | 13 Aug 2026

Attribution of the record breaking 2025 European fire season to climate change

Theodore R. Keeping, Mariam Zachariah, Olivia Haas, Manolis Grillakis, Clair Barnes, Gareth D. Clay, Bikem Ekberzade, Orjeta Jaupaj, Andreia Ribeiro, Ricardo Trigo, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Friederike E. L. Otto

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Latest update: 04 Sep 2026
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Short summary
2025 broke wildfire records across European regions. For five regions, we identify the weather, vegetation and management conditions that drove these extreme fires. We found the change in the likelihood and intensity of similar driving “fire weather”, from before human-caused warming to present, and from now to a likely future climate. Summer drought and hot, dry and windy conditions have shifted rapidly, with 2025’s conditions no longer rare in some regions despite devastating fires.
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