Articles | Volume 26, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3749-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3749-2026
Research article
 | 
12 Aug 2026
Research article |  | 12 Aug 2026

Can aerosols improve urban flood forecasting? A case study of 2015 Chennai extreme event

Oscar Paul, N. Nithila Devi, Rakesh Teja Konduru, Soumendra Nath Kuiry, Kundan Lal Shrestha, and Chandan Sarangi

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Cited articles

Barros, A. P., Shrestha, P., Chavez, S., and Duan, Y.: Modeling aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions in mountainous regions: Challenges in the representation of indirect microphysical effects with impacts at subregional scales, in: Rainfall-extremes, distribution and properties, IntechOpen, https://doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.80025, 2018. 
Boyaj, A., Ashok, K., Ghosh, S., Devanand, A., and Dandu, G.: The Chennai extreme rainfall event in 2015: The Bay of Bengal connection, Clim. Dynam., 50, 2867–2879, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3778-7, 2018. 
Brown, J. D., Spencer, T., and Moeller, I.: Modeling storm surge flooding of an urban area with particular reference to modeling uncertainties: A case study of Canvey Island, United Kingdom, Water Resour. Res., 43, W06402, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004597, 2007. 
Buchard, V., Randles, C. A., da Silva, A. M., Darmenov, A., Colarco, P. R., Govindaraju, R., Ferrare, R., Hair, J., Beyersdorf, A. J., Ziemba, L. D., and Yu, H.: The MERRA-2 aerosol reanalysis, 1980 onward. Part II: Evaluation and case studies, J. Climate, 30, 6851–6872, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0613.1, 2017. 
Chakraborty, A.: A synoptic-scale perspective of heavy rainfall over Chennai in November 2015, Curr. Sci., 111, 201–207, https://doi.org/10.18520/cs/v111/i1/201-207, 2016. 
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Short summary
Despite computationally intensive high-resolution weather models, accurate spatio-temporal rainfall simulation at complex urban scales remains challenging. Using the December 2015 Chennai 1-in-100-year flood as a case study, we show that explicit aerosol representation significantly influences rainfall simulations, improving flood extent mapping by up to 50 %. Our approach resolves urban-scale aerosol microphysics and can be systematically extended to other extreme events across regions.
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