Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3253-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3253-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Feature selection for landslide forecasting models in Southern Andes
Manuel Labbé
Department of Electrical Engineering, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, Chile
Millaray Curilem
Department of Electrical Engineering, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, Chile
Ivo Fustos-Toribio
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, Chile
Mario Pooley
Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, Chile
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Ivo Fustos-Toribio, Daniel Basualto, Ardy Gatica, Alvaro Bravo-Alarcón, José-Luis Palma, Gabriel Fuentealba, and Sergio A. Sepúlveda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4843–4861, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4843-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4843-2025, 2025
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We investigated how volcanic soils and heavy rainfall trigger dangerous debris flows in the southern Andes. Our findings show saturated volcanic-soils above less permeable glacial deposits create ideal conditions for slope failures. Monitoring soil moisture and surface changes helps predict these events. This knowledge aids in protecting communities from debris flow hazards, increasingly important under climate change.
Ivo Fustos-Toribio, Nataly Manque-Roa, Daniel Vásquez Antipan, Mauricio Hermosilla Sotomayor, and Viviana Letelier Gonzalez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2169–2183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2169-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2169-2022, 2022
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We develop for the first time a rainfall-induced landslide early warning system for the south of Chile. We used forecast precipitation values at different scales using mesoscale models to evaluate the probability of landslides using statistical models. We showed the feasibility of implementing these models in future, supporting stakeholders and decision-makers.
Ivo Janos Fustos-Toribio, Bastian Morales-Vargas, Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela, Pablo Moreno-Yaeger, Ramiro Muñoz-Ramirez, Ines Rodriguez Araneda, and Ningsheng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3015–3029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3015-2021, 2021
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Links between debris flow and volcanic evolution are an open question in the southern Andes. We modelled the catastrophic debris flow using field data, a geotechnical approach and numerical modelling of the Petrohué event (Chile, 2017). Our results indicated new debris-flow-prone zones. Finally, we propose considering connections between volcanoes and debris flow in the southern Andes.
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Short summary
We investigated methods to improve the prediction of landslides triggered by heavy rainfall in southern Chile, utilising local soil and climate data. We tested different models and selected the most critical environmental factors. We improved the process for making forecasts in areas with limited monitoring. Our results help create faster and more reliable warnings and can guide safety planning in other mountain regions facing similar risks.
We investigated methods to improve the prediction of landslides triggered by heavy rainfall in...
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