Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3231-2026
Copyright waived. This work has been dedicated to the public domain (Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication).
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3231-2026
Copyright waived. This work has been dedicated to the public domain (Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication).
Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
13 Jul 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 13 Jul 2026

Beyond the 100-year flood: probabilistic flood hazard assessment for King and Pierce Counties under future climate scenarios

Kees Nederhoff, Kai Parker, and Eric Grossman

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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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Cited articles

Ali, J., Wahl, T., Morim, J., Enriquez, A., Gall, M., and Emrich, C. T.: Multivariate compound events drive historical floods and associated losses along the U.S. East and Gulf coasts, Npj Natural Hazards, 2, https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00076-5, 2025. 
Barnard, P. L., van Ormondt, M., Erikson, L. H., Eshleman, J., Hapke, C., Ruggiero, P., Adams, P. N., and Foxgrover, A. C.: Development of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for predicting the impact of storms on high-energy, active-margin coasts, Nat. Hazards, 74, 1095–1125, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1236-y, 2014. 
Barnard, P. L., Erikson, L. H., Foxgrover, A. C., Hart, J. A. F., Limber, P., O'Neill, A. C., van Ormondt, M., Vitousek, S., Wood, N., Hayden, M. K., and Jones, J. M.: Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change, Sci. Rep., 9, 4309, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-40742-z, 2019. 
Brogli, R., Heim, C., Mensch, J., Sørland, S. L., and Schär, C.: The pseudo-global-warming (PGW) approach: methodology, software package PGW4ERA5 v1.1, validation, and sensitivity analyses, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 907–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-907-2023, 2023. 
Buitink, J., Dalmijn, B., Parker, K. A., Nederhoff, K., and Grossman, E.: Wetter Winters, Drier Summers: Quantifying the change in hydrological response around the Puget Sound area using the wflow_sbm hydrological model and CMIP6 projections, EarthArXiv [preprint], https://doi.org/10.31223/X58R0G, 2026. 
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Editorial statement
This study advances flood risk science by introducing a high-resolution, probabilistic framework that integrates coastal and fluvial dynamics through continuous modelling, moving beyond traditional deterministic “100-year flood” approaches. Quantifying Expected Annual Flooded Area (EAFA) and identifying critical sea-level rise thresholds provides actionable insights for more accurate, climate-informed flood risk assessment and spatial planning in vulnerable coastal regions.
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Short summary
Flooding is a growing risk for communities around Puget Sound, where rising seas and changing rainfall patterns combine with rivers and tides. We used advanced computer models to simulate decades of water levels and river flows to better understand how often and how severely flooding may occur in the future. Our results show that climate change will increase both the frequency and extent of flooding, highlighting the urgent need for adaptation planning.
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