Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3231-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3231-2026
Research article
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13 Jul 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 13 Jul 2026

Beyond the 100-year flood: probabilistic flood hazard assessment for King and Pierce Counties under future climate scenarios

Kees Nederhoff, Kai Parker, and Eric Grossman

Data sets

CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) modeled flood hazards for King County, Washington: U.S. Geological Survey data release Kai Parker et al. https://doi.org/10.5066/P13HYXKY

Model code and software

CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) modeled flood hazards for Pierce County, Washington: U.S. Geological Survey data release K. Parker et al. https://doi.org/10.5066/P14U7EK2

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Editorial statement
This study advances flood risk science by introducing a high-resolution, probabilistic framework that integrates coastal and fluvial dynamics through continuous modelling, moving beyond traditional deterministic “100-year flood” approaches. Quantifying Expected Annual Flooded Area (EAFA) and identifying critical sea-level rise thresholds provides actionable insights for more accurate, climate-informed flood risk assessment and spatial planning in vulnerable coastal regions.
Short summary
Flooding is a growing risk for communities around Puget Sound, where rising seas and changing rainfall patterns combine with rivers and tides. We used advanced computer models to simulate decades of water levels and river flows to better understand how often and how severely flooding may occur in the future. Our results show that climate change will increase both the frequency and extent of flooding, highlighting the urgent need for adaptation planning.
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