Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3231-2026
Copyright waived. This work has been dedicated to the public domain (Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication).
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3231-2026
Copyright waived. This work has been dedicated to the public domain (Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication).
Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
Research article
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13 Jul 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 13 Jul 2026

Beyond the 100-year flood: probabilistic flood hazard assessment for King and Pierce Counties under future climate scenarios

Kees Nederhoff, Kai Parker, and Eric Grossman

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Editorial statement
This study advances flood risk science by introducing a high-resolution, probabilistic framework that integrates coastal and fluvial dynamics through continuous modelling, moving beyond traditional deterministic “100-year flood” approaches. Quantifying Expected Annual Flooded Area (EAFA) and identifying critical sea-level rise thresholds provides actionable insights for more accurate, climate-informed flood risk assessment and spatial planning in vulnerable coastal regions.
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Short summary
Flooding is a growing risk for communities around Puget Sound, where rising seas and changing rainfall patterns combine with rivers and tides. We used advanced computer models to simulate decades of water levels and river flows to better understand how often and how severely flooding may occur in the future. Our results show that climate change will increase both the frequency and extent of flooding, highlighting the urgent need for adaptation planning.
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