Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 6
Articles | Volume 26, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2637-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2637-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 6
Research article
 | 
05 Jun 2026
Research article |  | 05 Jun 2026

Quantifying the current and future likelihood of the 2022 extreme wildfire weather conditions in France with anthropogenic climate change

Shengling Zhu, Renaud Barbero, François Pimont, and Benjamin Renard

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Short summary
In 2022, southwestern France saw exceptional wildfires, burning an area about 14 times the regional average. Using fire records, weather data, and climate simulations with and without human influence, we show that human-caused climate change made the weather conditions linked to the 3 largest wildfires about 2 to 10 times more likely; such conditions could become roughly 10 to 100 times more probable by 2100 under moderate emissions, highlighting a growing need for prevention.
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