Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 6
Articles | Volume 26, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2551-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2551-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 6
Brief communication
 | 
03 Jun 2026
Brief communication |  | 03 Jun 2026

Brief communication: Vent opening at Campi Flegrei – clues from dyke propagation patterns

Jacopo Selva and Nello Mangone

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Cited articles

Alberico, I., Lirer, L., Petrosino, P., and Scandone, R.: A methodology for the evaluation of long-term volcanic risk from pyroclastic flows in Campi Flegrei (Italy), J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 116, 63–78, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-0273(02)00211-1, 2002. 
Amoruso, A., Crescentini, L., Linde, A. T., Sacks, I. S., Scarpa, R., and Romano, P.: A horizontal crack in a layered structure satisfies deformation for the 2004–2006 uplift of Campi Flegrei, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L22313, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031644, 2007. 
Amoruso, A., Crescentini, L., Sabbetta, I., De Martino, P., Obrizzo, F., and Tammaro, U.: Clues to the cause of the 2011–2013 Campi Flegrei caldera unrest, Italy, from continuous GPS data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059539, 2014a. 
Amoruso, A., Crescentini, L., and Sabbetta, I.: Paired deformation sources of the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) required by recent (1980–2010) deformation history, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 119, 858–879, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JB010392, 2014b. 
Barberi, F., Cassano, E., La Torre, P., and Sbrana, A.: Structural evolution of Campi Flegrei caldera in light of volcanological and geophysical data, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 48, 33–49, https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0273(91)90031-T, 1991. 
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Forecasting the potential position of future eruptions is fundamental for managing volcanic hazards. Here, we develop a new approach to identify the most likely positions for future eruptions based on the propagation path of the magma that fed past eruptions. Its application to Campi Flegrei shows probability peaks at 2 and 4 km from the caldera center and in the direction of existing topographic peaks. High probability areas correlate well with caldera’s structure and recent major seismicity.
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