Articles | Volume 26, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2133-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2133-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 May 2026
Research article |
| 08 May 2026
| 08 May 2026
Combining hazard, exposure and vulnerability data to predict historical United States hurricane losses
Alexander F. Vessey
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
AXA XL, 20 Gracechurch Street, London, United Kingdom
Alexander J. Baker
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, United Kingdom
Vernie Marcellin-Honore
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
James Michelin
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
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The Next Generation of Earth Modeling Systems project (nextGEMS) developed two Earth system models that use horizontal grid spacing of 10 km and finer, giving more fidelity to the representation of local phenomena, globally. In its fourth cycle, nextGEMS simulated the Earth System climate over the 2020–2049 period under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. Here, we provide an overview of nextGEMS, insights into the model development, and the realism of multi-decadal, kilometer-scale simulations.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
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The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Elliott Michael Sainsbury, Reinhard K. H. Schiemann, Kevin I. Hodges, Alexander J. Baker, Len C. Shaffrey, Kieran T. Bhatia, and Stella Bourdin
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Post-tropical cyclones (PTCs) can bring severe weather to Europe. By tracking and identifying PTCs in five global climate models, we investigate how the frequency and intensity of PTCs may change across Europe by 2100. We find no robust change in the frequency or intensity of Europe-impacting PTCs in the future. This study indicates that large uncertainties surround future Europe-impacting PTCs and provides a framework for evaluating PTCs in future generations of climate models.
Alexander F. Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
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Short summary
Hurricanes are a destructive natural hazard. Historically, however, their Saffir–Simpson categories and losses are not well correlated. We combined hazard, exposure, and vulnerability data to predict losses from landfalling hurricanes for the United States. Our model significantly reduces errors between predicted and observed losses and is more skilful than hazard-only predictions. Additionally, we developed a novel loss-based hurricane classification scheme to aid risk management.
Hurricanes are a destructive natural hazard. Historically, however, their Saffir–Simpson...
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