Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 5
Articles | Volume 26, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2133-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2133-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 5
Research article
 | 
08 May 2026
Research article |  | 08 May 2026

Combining hazard, exposure and vulnerability data to predict historical United States hurricane losses

Alexander F. Vessey, Alexander J. Baker, Vernie Marcellin-Honore, and James Michelin

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Short summary
Hurricanes are a destructive natural hazard. Historically, however, their Saffir–Simpson categories and losses are not well correlated. We combined hazard, exposure, and vulnerability data to predict losses from landfalling hurricanes for the United States. Our model significantly reduces errors between predicted and observed losses and is more skilful than hazard-only predictions. Additionally, we developed a novel loss-based hurricane classification scheme to aid risk management.
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