Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 3
Articles | Volume 26, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1603-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1603-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 3
Research article
 | 
31 Mar 2026
Research article |  | 31 Mar 2026

Predicting thunderstorm risk probability at very short time range using deep learning

Mélanie Bosc, Adrien Chan-Hon-Tong, Aurélie Bouchard, and Dominique Béréziat

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Short summary
In the context of aeronautics, one of the main dangers along flight paths is the presence of cumulonimbus clouds, which can generate lightning and strike aircraft causing damages. To address this issue, we have developed a data-driven AI method to predict thunderstorms risk that allows to estimate electrical activity probability at very short time range (every 5 min up to 1 h ahead).
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