Articles | Volume 26, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1515-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1515-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
25 Mar 2026
Research article |
| 25 Mar 2026
| 25 Mar 2026
Toward early warning of drought impacts: a framework for predicting drought impacts in the UK
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom
Eugene Magee
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom
Rachael Armitage
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom
Opeyemi E. Adedipe
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom
School of Computing and Communications, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom
deceased
Maliko Tanguy
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, RG2 9AX, United Kingdom
Lucy J. Barker
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom
Jamie Hannaford
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom
Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS), Maynooth University, Maynooth, Co. Kildare, Ireland
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Short summary
This study presents a data-driven framework to predict real-world drought impacts. Different modelling approaches were tested and evaluated in the United Kingdom using predictions at the time of occurrence, with the best-performing method selected for forecasting impacts months ahead. Both predictions and forecasts were validated using independent UK data and applied to Germany to test transferability. The results support early warning systems and improved drought risk planning.
This study presents a data-driven framework to predict real-world drought impacts. Different...
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