Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 3
Articles | Volume 26, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1515-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1515-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 3
Research article
 | 
25 Mar 2026
Research article |  | 25 Mar 2026

Toward early warning of drought impacts: a framework for predicting drought impacts in the UK

Burak Bulut, Eugene Magee, Rachael Armitage, Opeyemi E. Adedipe, Maliko Tanguy, Lucy J. Barker, and Jamie Hannaford

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Short summary
This study presents a data-driven framework to predict real-world drought impacts. Different modelling approaches were tested and evaluated in the United Kingdom using predictions at the time of occurrence, with the best-performing method selected for forecasting impacts months ahead. Both predictions and forecasts were validated using independent UK data and applied to Germany to test transferability. The results support early warning systems and improved drought risk planning.
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